06 A Perspective On The Evolving Geopolitics

A PERSPECTIVE ON THE
EVOLVING GEOPOLITICS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Dr. Raja Muhammad Khan
Abstract
Though Middle Eastern region is not new to wars and

conflicts, yet it has gone through a political and social quake
over the past decade. Since 2003, with the American invasion
of Iraq and the subsequent birth of anarchy, Middle East has
converted into a fireball. The Arab spring saga, the rise of
militant- non-state actors specifically the Islamic State (IS),
deepening regional rivalry, the erosion of state authority, the
breakup of social fabric and the widening sectarian fissure
has put politics, stability and security in a dismal state.
Dethroning of the Government in Yemen, followed by Saudi
attack has further intensified the rivalry between Iran and
Saudi Arabia; a cause of sectarian conflicts in the region.
Moreover, with the Iranian nuclear deal and the herculean
terror of IS and other groups on the rise; it is argued that all
regional actors and external powers will have to act
responsibly in order to reverse these chaotic trends and to
restore stability. The article views contemporary situation of
the region through lens of regional security complex and
comprehensive security doctrine. This analysis aims to
include all sectors of statehood and security in Middle East in
a comprehensive framework.
Introduction
The Middle East is a region that is strategically located at

the junction of Africa, Asia and Europe. Having a total area of
nearly 9,000,000 KM2, this vast region spreads from Egypt to
Iran and from the southern border of Turkey down to the
Arabian Sea. Some of the world’s most important waterways
such as the Persian Gulf, the Red sea, the Suez Canal and the
Gulf of Aden count as its strategic and economic assets. The
Middle East is a region of huge deserts, fertile river valleys,
and a hub of energy. It is considered the cradle of some of the
Margalla Papers 2015 107

A Perspective on the Evolving Geopolitics in the Middle East
world’s oldest civilizations - the Babylonians, Sumerians,

Mesopotamia and the Nile civilization, birthplace of the
world’s major religions - Judaism, Christianity and Islam and
the meeting point of Turkish, Arab and Iranian history and
cultures.
Nevertheless, the story of Middle East does not end here.

The advent of Islam in the 6th century B.C fundamentally
transformed the people and society of this great region. Till
date, Islam bears huge influence on politics, society, culture
and daily life in the Middle East. Right after its advent,
Muslim rulers, scientists, craftsmen and traders turned this
region into a center of knowledge, peace and prosperity. By
the first quarter of the 20th century after the demise of the
Ottoman Empire, many scholars thought that Middle East had
lost its civilizational and historical value. The discovery of oil
in early 20th Century transformed the Middle East into a
reservoir of energy. Subsequently, the geo-politics of the Cold
War made this region to serve as a geo-strategic asset and the
engine of global economy.1
Over the years, the Middle East has, unfortunately, turned

into a battleground of foreign conspiracies, regional rivalries,
sectarian fault lines and an array of intra and inter-state
armed conflicts. Moreover, the cultural, social, civilizational
and ideological variety of the people of Middle East has been
exploited by despotic rulers in collaboration with foreign
powers for the simple reason of ensuring their rule over the
people.
Traditionally, the major elements influencing politics and

foreign policies in the Middle East have been; the Palestine
issue, Iran’s nuclear program, Saudi-Iran rivalry, the Shia-
Sunni identity, Israel and the interests of foreign powers. The
Arab spring added even more profound but dangerous
dynamics to this list. These include the rise of militant and
terrorist non-state actors having regional links and
networking. The best example of these groups is Islamic State
(IS). Self-styled leaders and other influential figures having
108 Margalla Papers 2015

external forces behind them besides their own motives to

control these armed militias and terror groups.
One of the dominant external players in the Middle East is

the United States. Traditionally, it has enjoyed a high degree
of influence over politics and security in the Middle East and
at times acted as a patron of security in the region.2 Many
believe that after losing its credibility among Arabs, US might
be in search of a new ally in the region in the form of Iran.
With political bonds between the US and its long-time Arab
allies weakening and finalization of Iranian nuclear deal, some
experts of the region suggest that the US and Iran might come
closer to each other, because Iran is relatively stable than Arab
world and may become its ally against IS and Al-Qaeda.
The self-immolation of a Tunisian man was soon followed

by million-man demonstrations that jolted the region and led
to the collapse of a number of tyrants. This huge mass
mobilization was dubbed “the Arab spring”. To many, the
Arab Spring, a symbol of, oppression, denial of rights, neglect
and a resistance to foreign presence, came as a ray of hope.
However, this ray of hope quickly turned chaotic. The Arab
Spring, after having quickly turned bloody, has transformed
the dynamics of regional and global politics and security.
Owing to the ongoing sectarian divide and political chaos

in Yemen, Syria and many other Arab countries, the authority
of the rulers have shrunk and the ethnic, tribal and sectarian
elements started filling up the gaps. Social fabric has broken
down. Organized, violent, extremist and sophisticated non–
state actors are wreaking havoc with lives and property.3
Unfortunately, it is the common people who have lost their
lives, faced migration and abuse and are being persecuted
under one or another label.
Middle East; owing to its geo-strategic location and being

pivot of the world energy security calculus, is the most
significant region where conflict, weakened governmental
structures and instability cannot be left unattended by world
community. The ongoing situation in Middle East has

potential to have spill over effect on the neighbouring region.

With the onset of new era in political history since 2001,
stakes of major powers in the region and consequent
transition of institutional structures, Middle East has
developed challenging situation, both in political and security
realms. As the emerging situation is posing multidimensional
challenges at all three levels; state, individual and institution;
it is relevant to apply regional security complex analysis.
Furthermore, the recent events imply that any long-term
solution to the problems of the Middle East will need to be
regional and indigenous where people are part of the
statecraft.
In the contemporary era, the major issues in the Middle

East are Iran-Saudi rivalry, the sectarian divide that has
engulfed the region, the rise of ISIS, Iran’s nuclear
programme and the war in Yemen and Syria. So, as the
despotic tyrants ruled with iron fist and Israel busy in
expansion and oppression, Iran and Saudi racing for regional
supremacy and the US looking after its own interests.
Palestine kept on bleeding and the West, US and other Arab
governments watched the situation inconsiderately. 4
Although, things seemed acceptable on the surface, but,
beneath, lava was being cooked and the volcano erupted in
2011.
There have been many theoretical frameworks to analyze

different situations of Middle East in history. What is the most
appropriate to understand indigenous realities of the region is
framework of Regional Security Complex (RSC). This paper
analyses the evolution of Middle East security complex, role of
actors, factors and phenomenon with an emphasis on the
ever-growing salience of the region. The region has rich
variables of all analytical sectors prescribed comprehensively
only in the theory of regional security complex, for instance
social, political, economic etc. The analysis also considers
Turkey as an ‘insulator state’ in the regional security complex.
The ‘interface logic’ of theory also applies well to the current
and emerging situation of the region. The paper also takes into

consideration the role being played by major powers to further

their own objectives.
Iran - Saudi Relations – from Warm Rivalry to a Cold

War
Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

are two of the main players in the Middle Eastern region.
Along with the American attack on Iraq and the Arab
awakening, the Saudi – Iran rivalry is the main cause of the
huge transformation, the region is going through in the
present time.5 It can be argued that Iran-Saudi rivalry that has
now turned into a regional cold war is, in fact, the main motor
behind the conflicts. Owing to their size, population, resources
and influence in the region, security and politics in the Middle
East is conditioned by the way the Royal Kingdom and the
Islamic Republic play their cards.
Historically, the relationship of Iran and Saudi Arabia has

remained quite frosty. It is a relationship, which has gone
through tough times during the Shah’s period, reached a crisis
point after the Islamic Revolution in Iran, and what we see
today is a breakpoint in it. During the time of the secular
Shah, relations were relatively friendly and a visible degree of
cooperation between the two states existed. Their relationship
reached a crisis point immediately after the Khomeini-led
Islamic revolution.6 The reason was that Ayatollah Ali
Khomeini, besides trying to export the revolution abroad,
called upon the Saudi’s to rise against the monarchy. For
Saudis, this was enough of Iranian interference in its internal
affairs. In 1987, when the Saudis quashed Iranian protesters
in Mecca, Khomeini openly declared the Kingdom as the
Islamic Republic’s chief enemy.7
The decade of 1990s was a period of Détente. This was

relatively a better period, as Khomeini was no more present
on the scene. Iran had paid a huge cost for trying to export its
revolution abroad and Saddam Hussain had emerged as a
common enemy of Riyadh and Tehran. The relationship of

Iran and Saudi Arabia has significantly deteriorated after the

American attack on Iraq in 2003.
Post Arab Spring Relations
Presently, both the countries are locked in a Cold war due

to differing interests in the region. It’s evident from the way
both have responded to developments that have swept the
region recently. While Iran supported Morsi regime in Egypt,
opposed foreign intervention in Libya, called for the rights of
the minority Shiites in Baharian and stood firmly beside Assad
and its proxies. Over the past decade, Iranian clout has
increased in Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria and Lebanon. Saudi
Arabia on the other hand, supported Morsi’s removal from
power, provides financial, military and diplomatic support to
the Syrian opposition. Riyadh has supported its proxies and
sympathizers in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. Moreover,
when Riyadh saw the Al-Khalifa’s rule weakening in Baharian,
sent troops to quash the uprising there.8 Recently, the Saudi
attack on Yemen has added more antagonism to the already
frosty relations and now, the Yemen civil war is considered to
be a proxy of Saudi Kingdom and Iran.
Iranian Nuclear Programme; Pre and Post Deal
Until reaching on an agreement with P5+1, the Iranian

nuclear programme has been considered to be one of the most
critical issues. Indeed, it has been provoking tension and
suspicion in the entire Middle East as well as international
community. While the United States, European powers, Israel
and the GCC countries viewed that Iran was allegedly on its
path of becoming a nuclear weapon state. The Iranian
Government stressed that, its nuclear program was for the
peaceful uses of nuclear energy, inside the framework and in
accordance with the principles of the Non-Proliferation Treaty
(NPT). Furthermore, for Iran, its nuclear program symbolizes
its peaceful technological advancement and triumph against
Israel and United States.9

On the other hand, the West, Israel and GCC countries

have categorically called Iran’s nuclear program as
threatening, dangerous and unacceptable. These states have
declared to go to any extent and do whatever it takes in order
to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring a nuclear
bomb. Iran managed to develop its nuclear program in a very
clandestine manner for over twenty years, until in 2003/4,
IAEA formally hinted at Iran being racing for nuclear
weapons.10 Being a signatory to NPT, Iran was under
international obligations not to develop, produce or possess
nuclear weapons and other kinds of WMDs.11 Being signatory
of NPT, Iran could have gone for nuclear energy for peaceful
purposes, while staying away from developing Nuclear
weapons.12 After UN sponsored sanctions against Iran,
starting from 2005, the first major breakthrough in these
negotiations occurred in 2013 when Iran and P5+1 agreed on a
six months Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) and a Framework for
Cooperation (FFC) between the IAEA and Iran. Under this
deal, the world powers agreed to ease the back breaking
sanctions and release Iranian funds worth 7 billion dollars.
Reciprocally, Iran agreed to an expanded IAEA access to its
nuclear facilities and promised to cut down Uranium
enrichment from 20% down to 5 %.13
After hectic efforts, debate and discussion on Iran’s

nuclear Programme, on April 2, 2015, it was announced in
Lausanne, Switzerland that, eight nations states agreed on the
framework of Iran’s nuclear deal. The announcement said
that, “Today, we have taken a decisive step: we have reached
solutions on key parameters of a Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA).”14 Based on this agreement, the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action between Iran and P5 plus 1 was
formally announced on July 14, 2015. According to JCPOA,
Iran will limit its installed enrichment centrifuges from 19000
to 6000; only 5000 of these will be spinning.15 These will be
first generation centrifuges without any advance model for
another 10 years. Natanz enrichment plan of Iran will cease
enrichment and instead will be used as physics research
centre for 15 years. Low-enriched uranium will also be
reduced from 10,000kg to 300kg for the next 15 years.16 For

15 years, there will be no heavy water reactor established by

Iran and the current facility (Arak heavy-water reactor) will be
removed and destroyed.
Israel and Saudi Arabia opposed the nuclear deal between

Iran and P5+1, instead they were favoring a military action to
destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. For Israel and Saudi
Arabia, Iran’s nuclear programme will mean a severe blow to
security and stability in the region. Despite international
sanctions, Iran gained a unique ability of having developed
long-range missiles (ICBMs) that can hit Israel and every
other country in the region.17 Interestingly, as Israel has
already gained nuclear capability, top officials in the Saudi
establishment have categorically stated that the Kingdom will
not lag behind if the Islamic Republic goes nuclear.18 For
Saudi Arabia and Israel, a nuclear Iran would have gained an
unprecedented leverage over the politics and strategy in the
Middle East. The Duo visualized that, nuclear capability will
result in an increased Iranian influence in Iraq, Syria, Hamas,
Hezbollah, Lebanon, Yemen and other countries like Bahrain
which have significant number of Shiite population. Indeed,
Iran already gained influences over all these even without
having nuclear weapons, indeed a strategic gain.
The Tribal Nature of Middle Eastern States
The sectarian wars that have erupted today in the Middle

East can also be traced back to the tribal nature of many of the
states in the region. A tribal state, in which the loyalties of the
citizens are not with the institutions of the state but with the
tribes or sects to which they belong, makes these states
inherently weak. This is one of the reasons why the current
conflicts have taken a sectarian dimension. The leaders in
order to prolong their role rely on the sect to which they
belong. Saddam relied on its Sunni population, Al-Maliki
relied on Shias, Assad depends on the Alawites and the Al-
Khalifa dynasty rely on the minority Sunnis of Bahrain. These
conflicts in one way or another are linked to Tehran and
Riyadh who exploit these conflicts to feed their geo-political
rivalry.19

Who is with whom in the Middle East?
As the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia aggravated

after the Islamic revolution. Tehran and Riyadh have crossed
the sectarian line in finding and choosing allies in the region.
For example, Iran has been a staunch advocate and supporter
of the Sunni group HAMAS. Again, Iran is a staunch supporter
of the rights of Palestinians who are mainly Sunni. Iran was
against foreign intervention in Libya which is again a
predominantly Sunni state. President Morsi – a conservative
member of the Sunni Brotherhood had close ties with Shiite
Iran rather than Saudi Arabia. Similarly, Iran doesn’t really
like the Houthis, but Iran has a political and strategic
compulsion to stand with the Houthis. On the other hand,
every Sunni is also not a friend of Saudi Arabia. The Muslim
Brotherhood – a conservative Sunni entity, is staunchly
against the Saudi monarchy, Al-Qaeda, ISIS and other hard-
line Sunni groups are as much against Kingdom as they are
against Iran. 20
Current State of Affairs
Iran - Saudi divergence is visible everywhere across the

Middle East. Be it Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain or
anywhere else. The Saudis are playing more on Sectarian card,
by projecting the cause of Wahabi Islam against Tehran. As
Shias are in minority, Iran therefore, does not refer directly to
sectarianism. Instead, Tehran uses Anti –Jewish, Anti-Israel
and Anti- American rhetoric to mold public opinion in its
favour, feed its supporters ideologically and protect its Iran-
Syria- Hezbollah axis.
At present, as the Saudis are on the defensive, they are

facing a growing Iranian influence in Iraq, Syria, Bahrain and
Yemen. After nuclear deal, Iranian international isolation and
economic sanction has reduced reasonably. Imagine how the
region has changed, compared to early 2000s, when, Iran was
politically isolated, Saddam was sitting next to its borders, a
hard-line and extremist Sunni group – the Taliban were ruling
Afghanistan and lastly Iran at that time was the member of

United States’ axis of evil. Much has changed now for Iran.
Taliban are no more in Afghanistan, Iraq, with which it had its
10-year long war is heavily influenced by Iran and despite all
odds, Iran has prevented the fall of Assad so far. Nevertheless,
against IS, neither Iran, nor Saudi Arabia seem to have found
any panacea.
Islamic State-The Birth of a Terrorist Network
If any hopes of reconciliation and peace were to live after

protests turned bloody routs in Syria in May 2012. The rise of
IS and the capture of huge swaths of Iraqi and Syrian land by
the group has quashed all those hopes. As the term “al-Sham”
suggests, ISIL wants to establish its rein in a region that
ranges from the south of Turkey to Syria, Egypt, Lebanon,
Jordan and Israel.21 For some “al-Sham” and “Levant” which
means greater Syria, or Syria and Lebanon, carry the same
meaning.22 Although, the group is known by the names of
ISIS, ISIL, IS, al-Dawla23 and Da'ish,24 John Daniszewski, of
the Associated Press says, “We believe this is the most
accurate translation of the group's name and reflects its
aspirations to rule over a broad swath of the Middle East.”25
In June 2014, the group named itself as Islamic State (IS).
The roots of current instability and violence in the Middle

East, to some extent, go back to 2003 when US and Britain
invaded Iraq. For the high-tech American and British war
machine, the invasion was expected to be a piece of cake.
What followed the invasion, was a total chaos, disorder,
violence and instability. The violent insurgency, which quickly
followed the invasion, opened the door of hell. Innocent Iraqis
as well as British and U.S soldiers got killed on daily basis. For
the Americans, the insurgency quickly became a reminiscent
of the Vietnam War.
The group behind this mounting insurgency was later

known to be Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). A Jordanian veteran of
the Afghan Jihad –Abu Muasab Al-Zarqawi, led this group.26
The AQI comprised former Jihadis, Iraqi Sunnis who felt
marginalized in post-Saddam Iraq, Officers of the Baathist

party and other Al-Qaeda sympathizers from across the

region. After three years of giving a tough time to the
Americans, Al-Zarqawi was killed in a U.S. air strike on June
7, 2006 and replaced by an Egyptian, Abu Ayyub al-Masri. As
the head of AQI, Masri dropped the label of Al-Qaeda in Iraq
(AQI), gave a new name to the group - Islamic State of Iraq
(ISI), later ISIL, ISIS, and now IS. In 2010, Al- Masri was
killed by US forces and replaced by Abu-Omar Al-Baghdadi
and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi respectively.27 By exploiting
political, social and ethnic grievances in 2012, Al-Baghdadi’s
men took control of the eastern rebel-held city of Raqqa and
began stretching along the border with Turkey28.
Re-organised, revamped and lured by the vacuum all around,
IS was once again carrying out major attacks in Iraq and Syria
on almost daily basis during the year 2013.29
The Rise of ISIS
Three main factors played a crucial role behind the rise of

ISIS. The first was the American decision of disbanding Iraqi
army after it occupied the country. This not only made all
those people upset and jobless, but it also infused a sense of
desperation among the wider Sunni population of Iraq. The
second factor was the politically suicidal policies of Al-Maliki-
then, Iraq’s Prime Minister. Al-Maliki pursued a sectarian line
in governing Iraq. Sunnis were ousted from key governmental
posts, marginalized and their grievances were not addressed.
Maliki used security forces against Sunnis which further
deepened divisions and polarization between the two sects.
Calling everything terrorism was just a wrong panacea for the
insurgency. And at a time, when Maliki should have gone for
political reforms, he acted otherwise and to a large extent
alienated the Sunnis. The third factor had a regional
dimension. Both Saudi and Iran wanted to maintain its
influence in Iraq. At a time when Iran was backing Shiite
figures and militias, Saudi provided generous funding and
support to Sunni groups in order to weaken Iranian influence
in Iraq.30

All these developments directly and indirectly benefitted

ISIS and other militia outfits. So when the monster rose, it
was too late for everyone to control it. Even though, there is a
large US-led coalition fighting ISIS today. IS’ defeat will take
years and even many more years will be required to reverse
the trend in the wider region. The only thing left for the people
today is to learn how to deal with chaos that is going to last for
many more years.
ISIS’ ATM
ISIS has so far launched daring assaults in Iraq, Syria,

Egypt, and Yemen. Currently, IS is the richest terrorist group
with its daily earnings exceeding the figure of more than U.S.
$3 million a day. IS obtains this money from selling oil,
smuggling antiquities, extortion and taxation.31 It is also
believed that regional countries particularly Iran and Saudi
Arabia might also have played with the dragon. As a weak Iraq
was in favor of Iran, studies have established that Iran had
been financing Al-Qaeda in Iraq in its early days. All this was
done in order to keep the US on the defensive and engaged
within Iraqi cities.32
Moreover, Iran is also believed to have provided sanctuary

to Al Zarqawi and Al-Qaeda leaders when they fled
Afghanistan after the American invasion.33 The same
argument holds true about Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are also
blamed to have provided cash to the IS, as it was a Sunni
group and Saudis thought they would use this and other
similar groups to keep the spread of Iranian influence under
check. It is difficult to determine whether both Iran and Saudi
Arabia knew the consequences of their actions, however, the
strategic calculus has now changed. IS must have surprised all
of its ex-supporters. Today, IS is hitting Sunnis and Shiites
alike. It is also hitting Saudi Arabia and its allies and is
becoming a growing danger for Iran as well.

The Military Muscle of ISIS
Today, IS is not only the world’s richest terror group, but

also world’s most sophisticated and well-equipped group.
Armed with light and heavy weapons like machine guns, anti-
aircraft guns, surface to air missiles, captured tanks,
Humvees, and bomb- proof vehicles left by the Iraqi army and
withdrawing US forces, IS commanders are also considered
expert in bomb making, propaganda war, administration,
recruitment and battlefield tactics and strategy. As a number
of Baathist officers have filled its ranks, IS has shown
formidable resistance against the combined strength of US,
Iraqi army, Kurdish forces and Shiite militia. Many analysts
consider that, US has an indirect role in the birth and
subsequent rise of IS. IS, has in its ranks and cadre, trained
and war-hardened fighters hailing from different nations
including non-Middle Eastern and Western countries.34
Yemen War
Yemen is one of the most impoverished, divided and

complicated countries of the Middle East. A country divided
on political, ethnic and sectarian lines, its society had long
been facing a crisis of the government and unity. The
presence of a myriad number of players like the US, AQAP
(Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) and other proxy groups
extremely complicates the political atmosphere in Yemen. The
presence of so many diverse groups has already complicated
things, Saudi Arabia’s attack and the awakening of regional
proxies, have made the situation even worse. Iran has formally
shown its concern over Saudi attacks in Yemen. There is a
complicated situation in Yemen and Saudi should remember
that, Yemen might not be another Bahrain. This time the
Kingdom is dealing with a very complicated country.
Saudis are experiencing growing Iranian influence in

Yemen. It is very simple to understand that the sole reason
behind Saudi’s attack on Yemen is to prevent Iranian
influence from spreading.35 Although, the Saudis have their
own problems with Al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood who

have considerable presence in Yemen. Riyadh will never allow

the Houthis who are backed by Iran and former president Ali
Abdullah Saleh to run a country next to its immediate south.
This would simply make the crisis bi-polar for the Saudis who
are facing similar challenges to its north. This is the reason
that Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Gulf i.e. Egypt, Sudan
and the US intervened militarily in Yemen after the Houthis
ousted Saudi-backed president Abu –Rabu Mansour Hadi.
The intentions of Tehran are, however, quite clear. Iran

would like to keep the Saudis involved in as many places and
on as many fronts as possible. Because this will increase
domestic, pressure on the Saudis and might weaken the
country internally.
Déjà vu in Yemen
More than a year has now passed since the Houthis started
advancing in Yemen and the Saudis have been bombing
Yemen, what is visible ground is chaos and lawlessness.
Neither of the party seems to be winning this war. The
analysis of the present situation leads us to say that both are
making a mistake. The Houthis and the Saudis both should
have seen this day. They are repeating the grand American
blunder in Iraq. The reason is that military action by the
Saudis or the physical capture of territory by the Houthis will
not bring stability to Yemen. Military action, in other words,
cannot be a substitute for long-term political rapprochement
between the parties. The only outcome will be further
instability. Surprisingly enough, as the Americans have
withdrawn from Yemen, and the Saudis and the Houthis are
locked in battle, they are indirectly creating an opportunity for
their common enemies - IS and AQAP to exploit the situation.
And to remind ourselves, the strengthening of AQAP and IS in
Yemen will have global repercussions.36
The Syrian Crisis
Ever since its start in March 2011, the Syrian crisis

continued expanding. Starting from pro-democracy in

Southern city of Derra by youth, the crisis has formally taken

the shape of international conflict, where major powers have
stepped in with their militaries and logistics supporting either
the Syrians or the opposition groups. By September 2015, over
250,000 Syrians had lost their lives.37 This is besides those,
who still are missing and there are many who are non-Syrians
in origin and just joined the conflict on the ideological basis or
as proxies of major or regional powers. As per UN estimates,
millions of Syrians have left their homes and trying to take
refuge in either neighbouring countries or in various
European countries.
Apart from major powers, the main rivalry in Syria is

between Iran and Saudi Arabia, each promoting its own
school of thought and ideologies too. Iran has given weapons,
ammunition and billion of USD for the survival of Assad
regime. Iranian military and civil fighters have been fighting
against the rebels on behalf of Assad Regime. On the other
hand, Saudi Arab and many other Sunni monarchs are
supporting the rebels in all respect. Now with Russian support
to the Assad regime, Syria has become a centre of the global
power play. U.S and some EU countries had their direct and
indirect presence and support for the rebels. After IS attack in
France, killing 129 people, France has moved its aircraft
carrier38 in the region and bombed on the locations of IS. The
aerial bombing has killed hundreds of innocent civilians,
besides few rebels or IS militants. Turkish shooting down of
Russian aircraft has further escalated the situation and it is
likely that, U.S and Russia may engage against each other in
the region, for the promotion of their strategic objectives.
Such a situation will be disastrous for the Middle East. For the
sake of local masses of Middle East, the major powers, UNO
and regional actors must make efforts to cease the hostilities.
Role of the Regional Actors – Gulf Cooperation

Council (GCC)
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), headed by Saudi

Arabia, although having difference of opinion on Muslim
brotherhood and Morsi, have by and large stood united on

core regional issues of security. The GCC countries share

Saudi concerns that are emanating from the rise of IS. All GCC
countries including Qatar, Kuwait and UAE are part of the
anti-IS coalition. There is an agreement that IS has emerged
as the collective enemy of all GCC countries, rather foreign
powers and Israel. Resultantly, the security and political
challenges of the contemporary Middle East of all GCC
countries are similar to that of Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia like other states of the region, is going

through its toughest times. Its foreign policy options are
gradually shrinking and it is facing severe setbacks on the
regional level. Its influence is vanishing over the regional
governments, its appeal as being the center of Islam is losing
ground, its status as the protector of the right of Arabs has
ended, and similarly, it is also not winning its rivalry with
Iran. To add to the Saudi predicament, its relations with the
US are at the lowest point ever. All this has put Saudi Arabia
against an avalanche of challenges.39 All of these challenges
have forced Saudi Arabia to take unexpected foreign policy
steps. As evident from the strike against Houthis, Saudi
Arabia seems to be growingly concerned with increasing
Iranian influence in the region. It has supported militant
networks across the region in order to balance Iranian
influence. It has also criticized Hamas and has stopped short
of explicitly condemning Israeli aggression against Gazans.
Surprisingly enough, Saudi Arabia was a vocal supporter of
General Sisi when he overthrew Mohammad Mursi in mid-
2013. 40
The Egypt of Al-SISI
Egypt, no doubt is the most important country in the

Middle East. If Saudi Arabia is considered the birthplace of
Islam, Egypt has, to a large extent, remained the intellectual
base of Islamic thought and political Islam. Since early 1970s,
Egypt has remained a close US ally. It has played a mediating
role in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. It’s one of the largest
recipient, of American military aid as well. Things were going
smooth in Egypt until the fall of Mubarak and the election of

Mursi- a Muslim brotherhood candidate which raised

eyebrows in US, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Morsi’s close ties
with Iran and Hamas were unwelcomed by Saudi Arabia, US
and Israel.41 Many believe that it was for this reason that
Morsi was finally overthrown in a coup led by General Sissi,
thus, reversing the policies of Morsi. Since the fall of Morsi,
insurgent attacks have increased in Egypt’s Sinai province.
More concerning is the fact that IS has raised its head in the
volatile north east of Egypt- the Sinai. Gradually, Sinai is
becoming a breeding ground for IS and its supporters. This is
evident from the fact that on June 4, 2015, the Egyptian
branch of IS claimed responsibility of firing rockets into
southern Israel. Moreover, since 2013, more than a hundred
Egyptian soldiers have lost their lives in attacks that are
widely believed to have been linked to IS.
One of the brazen attacks carried out by ISIS came on

July 1, 2015 in which nearly two dozen Egyptian soldiers were
killed and many injured. For Egypt, the threat of IS does not
come only from Syria or Iraq. It also faces the danger of IS-
spill over from Libya to its west. Being a very important
country of the Arab world, Egypt can be considered a potential
IS target in the near future.
Turkey
Turkey, a very important state which lies at the fringes of

the Middle East is likely to be affected by the ongoing unrest
close to its borders in Syria. Having its own Kurdish problem,
regional interests and a right-wing government, Turkey will be
closely watching events as they unfold. So far, the instability in
Syria has put a negative impact on Turkey both economically,
politically and strategically.42
Since the beginning of the Syrian uprising, Turkey support

has been the opposition against Assad. However, Turkey is
concerned with the rise of ISIS and other extremist groups
close to its borders. These groups certainly pose a threat to
Turkey’s security and sovereignty. In fact, Turkey has been a
major transit point for fighters that arrive from Europe to

Syria and if IS is able to spread its tentacles into Turkey, it will

bring the group at the doors of Europe and Caucasus. For
Russia and Europe, such a development will be too much to
ignore. The current puzzle for Turkey is that as it has
growingly become entangled in the war in Syria, it is hard for
Turkey to find a way between Assad and IS. In mid November
2015, Turkey shot-down a Russian fighter plan, after it
crossed over the Syrian border. The incident has created
tension between Turkey and Russia. Russia and Syria accuse
Turkey for supporting rebel groups including IS against Assad
regime.
Jordan
Jordan- the Hashemite Kingdom is considered a close

American and Saudi ally in the region and therefore, a good
enough reason for IS to target it. The basic problem of Jordan
comes from its demography and geography. While there is no
doubt that ISIS has an appeal inside Jordanian society, it is
geographically situated such that it borders with; Iraq, Syria,
Saudi Arabia and Israel. Therefore, for Jordan, to remain
isolated from IS, is nearly impossible. The demographic
challenge of Jordan comes from the fact that Jordan houses
millions of Palestinian and Syrian refugees while at the same
time it is a country that has seen less social and economic
development so far.
Hardline Jihadist-Salafism and anti-Western Muslim

brotherhood has gained a visible presence in the country in
the recent times. So, if we were to look into ISIS’ strategy, the
group might be trying to reach Jordan so as to expand its
influence southwards towards Palestine, Israel and Saudi
Arabia. Although failed by Jordanian army and intelligence, IS
has a number of times tried to enter Jordan.43 Thanks to the
alertness of Jordanian army and the vivid anti-ISIS stance of
King Abdullah, Jordan’s borders have not been breached by IS
so far.

Israel
Israel is US’ closest, formidable and natural ally in the

Middle East. Since its creation in 1948, the US has strongly
stood beside Israel diplomatically, politically and militarily. In
fact, the US considers Israel as the only democracy in the
middle of Arab monarchs. Israel’s security and the interests of
Israel remains a cornerstone of US regional policy in the
Middle East.44 Although Israel has normal relationship with
Egypt, Jordan and recently it has received favorable signals
from Saudi Arabia as well, Iran happens to be seen as Israel’s
enemy and strategic mire.
It is to be remembered that while the US has been teaching

democracy to the Arabs, the illegal occupation of Palestinian
lands by Israel remained the main source of extremism in the
region. On one hand the militant groups like Al-Qaeda and
ISIS have used Israel’s occupation and its atrocities against
Palestinians as tool of recruiting people, on the other, Iran, by
highlighting Israeli atrocities against Palestinians, is also
using anti-Israeli rhetoric in order to gain support for its
influence in the wider region and improve its bets against
Saudi Arabia.
Perspective on the Role of Global Powers Russia
Russia has long history of engagement with the Middle

East. During the cold war, it had formidable strategic allies in
the Middle East such as Egypt and Syria. Although Egypt
changed its direction in the 1970s and went into the US camp,
Syria and Iran remain critical Russian allies in the region. The
end of cold war saw an end of Russian influence in the world
and Middle East. Russia’s influence in the region came to a
bare minimum during the time of American unipolarity. But,
as the world is witnessing a re-arrangement and
re-distribution of economic power and political influence.
Russia has again started looking for a greater role in the
region. Russia’s role has been crucial in preventing the US and
the west from taking a Libyan-style military action in Syria or
against Iran.

Although difference of opinion and interests exist among

Saudi Arabia, Iran, United States and Russia, the Iran- Russia
duo seems to be blocking the US from increasing its influence
in the region. Indeed, Russian involvement in the region is
quite different from that of US, while the US is mainly
concerned with protecting its energy supply and the security
of Israel; Russian interest is of a strategic nature. Russia is
primarily concerned with preventing fundamentalism and
terrorism from reaching its borders and blocking US influence
in the region.45
The recent policy of Russia in the region is very different

from that of US. Russia has opposed the US and Saudi backed
rebels in Syria and recently started bombing the IS sites and
other groups fighting against President Assad. After shooting
down its aircraft by Turkey, there appears to be cold war
between Russia and NATO.
China
The most renowned reference of China in today’s politics is

its economic rise. While China is rising economically,
resource-rich Middle East naturally becomes an important
place for energy-hungry China. The foreign policy of China is
very different from that of US and Russia. While US yearns
for democracy, human rights and reducing anti-Americanism,
Russia, struggling for maintaining a strategic balance, China
however, has adopted a non-missionary foreign policy with no
political strings attached to its policy. What China wants is to
have economic market and energy contracts so as to ensure its
exports grow and its energy supply is maintained.46 China is
interested in the energy supply coming from the Middle East;
therefore, it would like stability to prevail in the region. As
China is trying to diminish US’ economic influence in the
region through its expansion to the Middle Eastern markets,
its future strategy calls for forging close ties with countries
(Middle East) that are located across new Silk Road and
maritime economic belt.47 Eventually, it can be inferred that
as China is mainly interested in the market and energy of the
Middle East, it makes China interested in the politics of

Middle East as well. Although China doesn’t have any

traditional allies in the region, it is rapidly increasing its
influence in Middle East and has a greater acceptability
among the regional countries.
Future Prospects
It is hard to determine whether Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iran

and the US- the major players in the region, knew the
consequences of regional instability or not. The rise of IS and
the current anarchy are the logical outcome of the rivalry
between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the US interests.
Furthermore, a decade of ill-conceived policies of the region’s
most influential rectangle - US, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel
have also fertilized disorder in the region. Today, Yemen,
Syria and Iraq are facing existential threats to their security
and integrity. One wonders whether these states will or not be
able to protect their integrity. Alternatively, an analysis of the
situation leads us to ask whether a major transformation in
the geography of Middle East is on the cards. Only time will
give us a clear answer of these questions.
It can be, stated that, the Kurds, who have long struggled
for autonomy are, achieving their dream. If it happens, the
integrity of Syria and Iraq is certainly at stake. This will
ultimately raise eyebrows in Turkey and Iran. Because Iran
and Turkey have a significant Kurd population with sub-
national aspirations present there since long.
The contemporary Middle East is going through a very

crucial phase of its history. Its society, politics and security are
going through a phase of transition and flux. Major
developments like the Arab spring, US invasion of Iraq, social
unrest across the region, Israel-Palestine dispute, the war in
Yemen, Syrian strife, Saudi-Iran rivalry, the rise of extremism
and terrorism, tribalism, the rise of sophisticated terrorist
networks and deepening Shia-Sunni fissure are tearing
everything apart.

In conflict zone of Middle East, it appears that, authority

has collapsed and chaos and disorder rule the region. The
Kurds are stronger and autonomous than ever, Iraq lies
divided politically, ethnically and socially. Syria- the country
of Palmira and Aleppo has turned into ruins. IS and Hezbollah
are acting more like a state rather than a non-state actor, the
Huthis, once deprived and ignored, today rule vast swathes of
Yemen. Sectarian militias both Shia and Sunni have largely
replaced state armies.
Saudi Arabia and Iran although still mongering for

regional dominance, nevertheless have started feeling the
heat. Gaza is still bleeding and the west bank still in shambles.
The only thing Al-Sisi has achieved after the removal of Mursi
is instability, hopelessness and is now faced with a threat of
organized insurgency in Sinai. Most despairing is the role of
the US. Its illegal invasion of Iraq neither brought democracy
nor diminished terrorism. What we see is wolves dancing on
the plains of Iraq. Not to be forgotten is the fact that US and
its ill-conceived strategies and policies are largely responsible
for the current mess. Now, Russia has jumped into the region
to counter the US and sustain the Assad regime. France and
other EU actors are also making their entry into the region
after IS attacks in France killing over 132 people. One can only
hope that US, EU and Russia stop playing with strategies in
the volatile region of Middle East. Rather enlarging gulf
between Muslims of Middle East, the major powers should let
the regional actors resolve their intra-state and inter-state
disputes.
For Iran and Saudi Arabia, there is writing on the wall.

Again, history is witness to the fact that after the Islamic
revolution in Iran and the beginning of Iran-Saudi rivalry,
both have paid a heavy cost in lives and money. Iran-Iraq war
is a terrible and tragic reminder of it. It’s high time that both
of the countries understand that their actions are not serving
the Muslims and the people of the region in anyway. In
contrast, their foreign policy choices have caused trouble,
fissure, enmity and misunderstanding among Muslims inside
and outside the region. Ultimately, they will have to find a

better solution because in this rivalry, both are going to lose.

Therefore, it is time to build regional consensus to prevent the
rise of extremism and terrorism. In addition, the infamous
terror groups like IS, Al-Qaeda and other terrorist non- state
militias alongside other sectarian elements must be dealt with
severely.
To sum up, it can be said that the recent developments in

the Middle East have put sovereignty, security, well-being,
and human dignity at stake. It is time to understand that
instability in the Middle East, if not controlled, will have
global repercussions as witnessed during IS attacks in France.
The world is simply different today and the idea that this
anarchy will only confine itself to the Middle East, is severely
wrong. The pages of history bear witness to the fact that any
developments in the Middle East have had a farther resonance
in the wider Muslim world in particular and in other parts of
the world in general.
And finally, to the Ayatollahs, Sheikhs, Al-Sisis, Assads and

Al-Malikis, let it be reminded that gone is the time of
despotism, tyranny and neglect. There is no more room of a
paid-for security or a hired stability. There is no room left for
hired security guarantors from the outside world. Be it the US
or any other state, real security, stability and prosperity are
ensured of the whole population is treated respectfully and is
included in statecraft; without giving stake to the population,
stability in the Middle East will remain a dream.
Notes
1 Mitchell, John, Valérie Marcel, and Beth Mitchell. What Next for the Oil
and Gas Industry? London: Chatham House, Oct 2012.
2 Shlaim, Avi. The Middle East: The Origins of Arab-Israeli Wars in
Ngaire Woods, ed., Explaining International Relations since 1945 (Oxford:

Oxford University Press, 1996), 219-40.
3 Oguzlu, Tarık. "The New Middle East." SEPAM Policy Brief No. 4 (2014).
4 Bass, Warren. Support any friend: Kennedy's Middle East and the
making of the US-Israel alliance. Oxford University Press, 2003.

5 Wehrey, Fredriec… et al. (2009). Saudi-Iranian Relations Since the Fall of

Saddam Rivalry, Cooperation, and Implications for U.S. Policy. Retrieved
from http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG840.html
6 Allison, Marissa.( December 6, 2010). U.S. And Iranian Strategic
Competition: Saudi Arabia And The Gulf States. Retrieved from

http://csis.org/publication/us-and-iranian-strategic-competition
7 Amirahmadi Hooshang. & Entessar, Nader. (Eds.).(1993). Iran and the
Arab World. [Pdf Version]. Retrieved from

http://www.amirahmadi.com/publication/BookChapters/IranianSaudiAr
abianRelationssincetheRevolution.pdf
8 Berti, Bendetta. & Guzansky, Yoel. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy on Iran
and the Proxy War in Syria:Toward a New Chapter?.[Pdf version]

Retrieved from
http://www.israelcfr.com/documents/8-3/benedetta-berti-and-yoel-
guzansky.pdf
9 Alireza Nader, “Iran Faces a Rough 2013, Real Clear World”, Real Clear
World, 2013,
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2013/01/03/iran_faces_a_rough
_2013_100447-full.html. (accessed December 15, 2014)
10 Al J. Venter, Iran's Nuclear Option: Tehran's Quest for the Atom Bomb,
Havertown, PA: Casemate Publishers, 2005

11 Islamic Republic of Iran signed The Convention on the Prohibition of the
Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological)

and Toxin Weapons on 10-04-72 and ratified on 22-08-73.
12 Treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT) Text:
http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPTtext.shtml
13 IAEA Report 20 February 2014 Implementation of the NPT Safeguards
Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolution in the

Islamic Republic of Iran
14 Elise Labott, Mariano Castillo and Catherine E. Shoichet, Optimism as
Iran nuclear deal framework announced; more work ahead, CNN, April
3, 2015. Retrieved from;
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/04/02/world/iran-nuclear-
talks/index.html.
15 M.S, Everything you want to know about the Iranian nuclear deal, The
Economist, April 5, 2015. Retrieved from;

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-
explains/2015/04/economist-explains-3
16 Ibid.
17 Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program, Council on Foreign Relations
Interactive http://www.cfr.org/interactives/CG_Iran/index.html#/iran's-
nuclear-program/ (accessed March 10, 2015)
18 Prince Al-Waleed Interview, The Wall Street Journal, Nov 22, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB100014240527023043374045792
11742820387758 (accessed March 10, 2015)

19 Gause III, F. Gregory (2014). Beyond Sectarianism: The New Middle
East Cold War. Retrieved from

http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2014/07/22-beyond-
sectarianism-cold-war-gause
20 Ibid
21 Isis vs Isil vs Islamic State: What do they mean – and why does it
matter?, Helen Lock, The Independent, UK, Sept 14, 2014,

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-vs-isil-vs-
islamic-state--what-is-in-a-name-9731894.html (accessed Sept 29, 2014)
22 Ray Sanchez, ISIS, ISIL or the Islamic State? CNN, Sept 10, 2014,
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/09/world/meast/isis-isil-islamic-state/
23Ray Sanchez, ISIS, ISIL or the Islamic State? CNN, Sept 10, 2014,
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/09/world/meast/isis-isil-islamic-state/
(accessed Sept 29, 2014)
24 The Economist, The many names of ISIS (also known as IS, ISIL, SIC
and Da'ish), Sep 28, 2014 http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-

explains/2014/09/economist-explains-19#sthash.DxXDoE4B.dpuf
25 Is it ISIL or ISIS in Iraq?, AP Blog, June 17, 2014
http://blog.ap.org/2014/06/17/is-it-isil-or-isis-in-iraq/ (accessed Sept 29,
2014)
26 M. J. Kirdar, Al-Qaeda in Iraq, Centre for Strategic and International
Studies, June 2011

27 Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi succeeded Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as Chief of
Islamic State of Iraq in April 2010. A Ph.D holder in Islamic

Jurisprudence, he is also known as Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri,
an Iraqi. He was designated a terrorist by the US government in 2011 and a
reward of $10 million was offered for information leading to his location.
28 The Economist, What ISIS, an al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, really wants,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-
explains/2014/01/economist-explains-12#sthash.ERTuLOyf.dpuf
29 BBC News, What is Islamic State?, Sept 26, 2014,
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29052144 (accessed Sept
30, 2014)
30 Tom Kutsch, ISIL’s advance puts Saudi Arabia between Iraq and a
hard place, Al Jazeera America,

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/6/17/saudi-iraq-isil.html
(accessed Oct 01, 2014)
31 Ibid.
32 Treasury Designates Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security for
Human Rights Abuses and Support for Terrorism. United States

Department of the Treasury. February 16, 2012.
http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/tg1424.aspx
as cited in The Evolution of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL): Relationships 2004-2014, START Fact Sheet, June 2014

33 Ibid, p. 2
34 Dr Michael Knights, The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, Washington
Institute for Near East Policy, Dec 2013
35 Mullen, Jethro. (March 26, 2015). Why is Saudi Arabia bombing
Yemen?. Retrieved from

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/26/middleeast/yemen-saudi-arabia-
offensive-why-now/
36 Yemen crisis: Who is fighting whom?.(26 March 2015). Retrieved from
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423
37 Middle East Section, Syria: The story of the conflict, BBC, October 9,
2015. Retrieved from; http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-

26116868
38 David Nye, This is the French aircraft carrier headed to Syria for
payback, The Mighty, November 16, 2015. Retrieved from;

http://www.wearethemighty.com/articles/french-aircraft-carrier-headed-
syria-vengeance.
39 Gause III, F. Gregory. "Why Middle East Studies missed the Arab spring:
The myth of authoritarian stability." Foreign Aff. 90 (2011): 81.

40 "Saudi King Breaks Silence on Gaza Massacre." ALALAM. August 2,
2014. Accessed October 23, 2014. http://en.alalam.ir/news/1618891.

41 El-Bendary, Mohamed. The Egyptian Revolution: Between Hope and
Despair: Mubarak to Morsi. Algora Publishing, 2013.

42 “Syrian Refugees” Migration Policy Centre February 2014.
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

(UNHCR), over 3 million have fled to Syria's immediate neighbours
Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.
43 THIBOS, Cameron. "35 years of forced displacement in Iraq:
contexualising the ISIS threat, unpacking the movements." (2014).

44 Beauchamp, Zack. "Why the US Has the Most Pro-Israel Foreign Policy
in the World." Vox. July 24, 2014. Accessed October 20, 2014.
45 Baker III, James A. "Russia in NATO?." Washington Quarterly 25, no. 1
(2012): 93-103.
46 Lyn, Christina. "CHINA’S STRATEGIC SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION
OF THE FOUR SEAS: THE MIDDLE KINGDOM ARRIVES IN THE

MIDDLE EAST." Meria Journal 18, no. 3 (2013).
47 O'Rourke, Ronald. China Naval Modernization: Implications for US
Navy Capabilities: Background and Issues for Congress. DIANE

Publishing, 2010.

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A PERSPECTIVE ON THE

EVOLVING GEOPOLITICS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Dr. Raja Muhammad Khan

Though Middle Eastern region is not new to wars and

The Middle East is a region that is strategically located at

Margalla Papers 2015 107

world’s oldest civilizations - the Babylonians, Sumerians,

Nevertheless, the story of Middle East does not end here.

Over the years, the Middle East has, unfortunately, turned

Traditionally, the major elements influencing politics and

108 Margalla Papers 2015

external forces behind them besides their own motives to

One of the dominant external players in the Middle East is

The self-immolation of a Tunisian man was soon followed

Owing to the ongoing sectarian divide and political chaos

Middle East; owing to its geo-strategic location and being

Margalla Papers 2015 109

potential to have spill over effect on the neighbouring region.

In the contemporary era, the major issues in the Middle

There have been many theoretical frameworks to analyze

110 Margalla Papers 2015

consideration the role being played by major powers to further

Iran - Saudi Relations – from Warm Rivalry to a Cold

Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Historically, the relationship of Iran and Saudi Arabia has

The decade of 1990s was a period of Détente. This was

Margalla Papers 2015 111

Iran and Saudi Arabia has significantly deteriorated after the

Post Arab Spring Relations

Presently, both the countries are locked in a Cold war due

Iranian Nuclear Programme; Pre and Post Deal

Until reaching on an agreement with P5+1, the Iranian

112 Margalla Papers 2015

On the other hand, the West, Israel and GCC countries

After hectic efforts, debate and discussion on Iran’s

Margalla Papers 2015 113

15 years, there will be no heavy water reactor established by

Israel and Saudi Arabia opposed the nuclear deal between

The Tribal Nature of Middle Eastern States

The sectarian wars that have erupted today in the Middle

114 Margalla Papers 2015

Who is with whom in the Middle East?

As the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia aggravated

Current State of Affairs

Iran - Saudi divergence is visible everywhere across the

At present, as the Saudis are on the defensive, they are

Margalla Papers 2015 115

Islamic State-The Birth of a Terrorist Network

If any hopes of reconciliation and peace were to live after

The roots of current instability and violence in the Middle

The group behind this mounting insurgency was later

116 Margalla Papers 2015

party and other Al-Qaeda sympathizers from across the

The Rise of ISIS

Three main factors played a crucial role behind the rise of

Margalla Papers 2015 117

All these developments directly and indirectly benefitted

ISIS has so far launched daring assaults in Iraq, Syria,

Moreover, Iran is also believed to have provided sanctuary

118 Margalla Papers 2015

The Military Muscle of ISIS

Today, IS is not only the world’s richest terror group, but

Yemen is one of the most impoverished, divided and