Thompson Lumber

Data Result
Profit Favorable Unfavorable
Market Market EMV Minimum Maximum
Probability 0.5 0.5 Coefficient
Large Plant 200,000 (180,000) 10,000 (180,000) 200,000
Small Plant 100,000 (20,000) 40,000 (20,000) 100,000
Do nothing - - - - -
Maximum 40,000 - 200,000

100000 <- Expected value under certainty

Opportunity Loss 40000 <- Best expected value
Expected Value of Perfect Information 60000 <- Expected value of perfect information
Column best 200,000 -

Table of Regret (regret adalah nilai di mana harapan tidak sesuai dengan kenyataan; '0' adalah Tidak Menyesal)
Favorable Unfavorable
Market Market
Probability 0.5 0.5 Expected Maximum
Large Plant - 180,000 90,000 180,000
Small Plant 100,000 20,000 60,000 100,000
Do nothing 200,000 - 100,000 200,000
Minimum 60,000 100,000

Keputusan:
1 Dengan model Maximax, buat Large Plant
2 Dengan model Maximin, Do Nothing
3 Dengan model Criterion of Realism, buat Large Plant
4 Dengan model Equally Like, buat Small Plant
5 Dengan model Minimax Regret, buat Small Plant
 Hurwicz
0.8
124,000
76,000

124,000

h Tidak Menyesal)
Bayes Theorem for Thompson Lumber Example

Probability Revisions Given a Positive Survey

P (Survey Positive| State Posterior

State of Nature of Nature) Prior Prob Joint Prob Probability
FM 0.7 0.5 0.35 0.78
UM 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.22
P(Sur.pos)= 0.45

Probability Revisions Given a Negative Survey

P (Survey Positive| State Posterior

State of Nature of Nature) Prior Prob Joint Prob Probability
FM 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.33
UM 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.89
P(Sur.neg)= 0.55