Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13 Actual Sales
Apr-13 Year
Month
May-13 2013 2014
Jun-13 January 1790290
Jul-13 3054170 February 3481990
Aug-13 2452290 March 4384980
Sep-13 833160 April 4631650
Oct-13 2497690 May 4883260
Nov-13 1236550 June 5587310
Dec-13 2117540 July 3054170 20807900
Jan-14 1790290 August 2452290 4953944
Feb-14 3481990 September 833160 7920766
Mar-14 4384980 October 2497690 8098074
Apr-14 4631650 November 1236550 5651363
May-14 4883260 December 2117540 8866198
Jun-14 5587310
Jul-14 20807900
Aug-14 4953944
Sep-14 7920766
Oct-14 8098074
Nov-14 5651363
Dec-14 8866198
Jan-15 4412739
Feb-15 2351934
Mar-15 6063970
Apr-15 7491518
May-15 8579014
Jun-15 14961309
Jul-15 35515042
Aug-15 9215456
Sep-15 15826092
Oct-15 9168621
Nov-15 8858105
Dec-15 15385103
Jan-16 9202318
Feb-16 10391970
Mar-16 11603831
Apr-16 13931570
May-16 13000314
Jun-16 43960083
Jul-16 24430419
Aug-16 14158469
Sep-16 19774524
Oct-16 15968109
Nov-16 15014633
Dec-16 21033111
Actual Sales
Year
2015 2016
4412739 9202318
2351934 10391970
6063970 11603831
7491518 13931570
8579014 13000314
14961309 43960083
35515042 24430419
9215456 14158469
15826092 19774524
9168621 15968109
8858105 15014633
15385103 21033111
Evaluation of Associative Forecasting Techniques
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.962564
R Square 0.926529
Adjusted R 0.831017
Standard E 2996873
Observatio 24
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 13 1.13E+15 8.71E+13 9.700617 0.000522
Residual 10 8.98E+13 8.98E+12
Total 23 1.22E+15
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 5029253 2803318 1.794036 0.103048 -1216929 11275436 -1216929 11275435.629183
Time 394244.3 101955.7 3.86682 0.003125 167072.8 621415.7 167072.8 621415.74846908
Eid Sales 3417390 2996873 1.140318 0.280729 -3260060 10094839 -3260060 10094839.339488
January -4687449 3199850 -1.4649 0.173669 -1.2E+07 2442261 -1.2E+07 2442261.421515
February -5266246 3165556 -1.66361 0.127167 -1.2E+07 1787053 -1.2E+07 1787053.1794759
March -3352977 3134205 -1.0698 0.309851 -1E+07 3630467 -1E+07 3630467.3248571
April -2910112 3105886 -0.93697 0.370852 -9830457 4010233 -9830457 4010232.9178764
May -2634803 3080682 -0.85527 0.412426 -9498991 4229384 -9498991 4229384.2596253
June 514124.8 3058671 0.168088 0.869865 -6301019 7329268 -6301019 7329268.4540725
July 14589652 4268767 3.417767 0.006572 5078246 24101058 5078246 24101058.478864
August -3463973 3024495 -1.14531 0.278752 -1E+07 3275021 -1E+07 3275021.1236643
September -778183 3364538 -0.23129 0.821753 -8274841 6718475 -8274841 6718474.6994798
October -4412509 3356805 -1.3145 0.218029 -1.2E+07 3066919 -1.2E+07 3066919.1491697
November -4476672 2998607 -1.49292 0.166321 -1.1E+07 2204641 -1.1E+07 2204640.7786221
Evaluation of Averaging Techniques
4793284.856
Eid Sales
Period Month January February March April May June July
Jan-14 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-14 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Mar-14 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Apr-14 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
May-14 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Jun-14 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jul-14 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Aug-14 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-14 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-14 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-14 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-14 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-15 13 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-15 14 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Mar-15 15 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Apr-15 16 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
May-15 17 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Jun-15 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jul-15 19 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Aug-15 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-15 21 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-15 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-15 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-15 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-16 25 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Feb-16 26 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Mar-16 27 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Apr-16 28 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
May-16 29 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Jun-16 30 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jul-16 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Aug-16 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep-16 33 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct-16 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nov-16 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec-16 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.962564
R Square 0.926529
Adjusted R 0.831017
Standard E 2996873
Observatio 24
ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 13 1.13E+15 8.71E+13
Residual 10 8.98E+13 8.98E+12
Total 23 1.22E+15
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 5029253 2803318 1.794036
Time 394244.3 101955.7 3.86682
Eid Sales 3240082 2996873 1.081154
January -4687449 3199850 -1.4649
February -5266246 3165556 -1.66361
March -3352977 3134205 -1.0698
April -2910112 3105886 -0.93697
May -2634803 3080682 -0.85527
June 514124.7 3058671 0.168088
July 14766960 4268767 3.459303
August -3463973 3024495 -1.14531
September -600875 3364538 -0.17859
October -4412509 3356805 -1.3145
November -4476672 2998607 -1.49292
August September October NovemberSales
0 0 0 0 1790290
0 0 0 0 3481990
0 0 0 0 4384980
0 0 0 0 4631650
0 0 0 0 4883260
0 0 0 0 5587310
0 0 0 0 20807900
1 0 0 0 4953944
0 1 0 0 7920766
0 0 1 0 8098074
0 0 0 1 5651363
0 0 0 0 8866198
0 0 0 0 4412739
0 0 0 0 2351934
0 0 0 0 6063970
0 0 0 0 7491518
0 0 0 0 8579014
0 0 0 0 14961309
0 0 0 0 35515042
1 0 0 0 9215456
0 1 0 0 15826092
0 0 1 0 9168621
0 0 0 1 8858105
0 0 0 0 15385103 Forecast Absolute Error Squared Error
0 0 0 0 9202318 10197912 995593.75 991206915039.066
0 0 0 0 10391970 10013359 378610.75 143346100015.564
0 0 0 0 11603831 12320872 717041.25 514148154201.56
0 0 0 0 13931570 13157981 773588.75 598439554126.563
0 0 0 0 13000314 13827534 827220.25 684293342010.063
0 0 0 0 43960083 20610788 23349294.75 545189565322378
0 0 0 0 24430419 32017787 7587367.75 57568149373740.2
1 0 0 0 14158469 14181097 22628.25 512037698.0625
0 1 0 0 19774524 20678521 903997 817210576008.987
0 0 1 0 15968109 14021050 1947059 3791038749480.97
0 0 0 1 15014633 14351131 663501.75 440234572253.063
0 0 0 0 21033111 19222048 1811063.25 3279950095500.56
MAD 3331413.875 55819826799313.9
F Significance F
9.700617 0.000521742
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.464554
R Square 0.21581
Adjusted R Square 0.180165
Standard Error 6600996
Observations 24
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2.64E+14 2.638E+14 6.0544371437 0.0221927144
Residual 22 9.59E+14 4.357E+13
Total 23 1.22E+15
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Intercept 3133301 2781333 1.1265467 0.2720728673 -2634829.9930815
Period 478958 194652.7 2.4605766 0.0221927144 75272.9029677279
Scatterplot and Regression Equation
40000000
35000000
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
f(x) = 478957.995652174x + 3133301.22101449
10000000 R² = 0.2158103231
5000000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Error Percentage
64.17%
49.98%
38.45%
18.75%
30.94%
60.19%
26.40%
30.38%
4.23%
21.60%
32.52%
3.13% y =x + 3E+06
31.727706254470100% R² = 0.2158
y= 478957.995652174*x+3133301.22101449
Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
8901432.43511048 -2634830 8901432
882643.08833662 75272.9 882643.1
Month Actual Forecast
Jan-16 9202318 15107251
Feb-16 10391970 15586209
Mar-16 11603831 16065167
Apr-16 13931570 16544125
May-16 13000314 17023083 Simple Linear Regression
Jun-16 43960083 17502041
Actual vs. Forecast
Jul-16 24430419 17980999
Aug-16 14158469 18459957 50000000
45000000
Sep-16 19774524 18938915
40000000
Oct-16 15968109 19417873
35000000
Nov-16 15014633 19896831
30000000
Dec-16 21033111 20375789
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
Jan-16 Ma r-16 May-16 Jul -16 Sep
Actual Foreca st
le Linear Regression
ctual vs. Forecast
Jul-13 3054170
Aug-13 2452290
Sep-13 833160
Oct-13 2497690
Nov-13 1236550
Dec-13 2117540
Jan-14 1790290 1950593 160303.33333 25697158677.78
Feb-14 3481990 1714793 1767196.6667 3122984058677.78
Mar-14 4384980 2463273 1921706.6667 3692956512711.11
Apr-14 4631650 3219087 1412563.3333 1995335170677.78
May-14 4883260 4166207 717053.33333 514165482844.45
Jun-14 5587310 4633297 954013.33333 910141440177.78
Jul-14 20807900 5034073 15773826.667 248813607710044.00
Aug-14 4953944 10426157 5472212.6667 29945111469227.10
Sep-14 7920766 10449718 2528952 6395598218304.00
Oct-14 8098074 11227537 3129462.6667 9793536582060.44
Nov-14 5651363 6990928 1339565 1794434389225.00
Dec-14 8866198 7223401 1642797 2698781983209.00
Jan-15 4412739 7538545 3125806 9770663149636.00
Feb-15 2351934 6310100 3958166 15667078083556.00
Mar-15 6063970 5210290 853679.66667 728768973280.11
Apr-15 7491518 4276214 3215303.6667 10338177668880.10
May-15 8579014 5302474 3276540 10735714371600.00
Jun-15 14961309 7378167 7583141.6667 57504037536736.10
Jul-15 35515042 10343947 25171095 633584023499025.00
Aug-15 9215456 19685122 10469665.667 109613899171779.00
Sep-15 15826092 19897269 4071177 16574482165329.00
Oct-15 9168621 20185530 11016909 121372283914281.00
Nov-15 8858105 11403390 2545284.6667 6478474034368.44
Dec-15 15385103 11284273 4100830.3333 16816809422786.80
Jan-16 9202318 11137276 1934958.3333 3744063751736.11
Feb-16 10391970 11148509 756538.66667 572350754161.78
Mar-16 11603831 11659797 55966 3132193156.00
Apr-16 13931570 10399373 3532197 12476415646809.00
May-16 13000314 11975790 1024523.6667 1049648743560.11
Jun-16 43960083 12845238 31114844.667 968133558630795.00
Jul-16 24430419 23630656 799763.33333 639621389344.44
Aug-16 14158469 27130272 12971803 168267673070809.00
Sep-16 19774524 27516324 7741799.6667 59935462078800.10
Oct-16 15968109 19454471 3486361.6667 12154717670802.80
Nov-16 15014633 16633701 1619067.6667 2621380109245.44
Dec-16 21033111 16919089 4114022.3333 16925179759165.40
1.99%
46.59%
40.03%
23.50%
15.77%
17.57%
80.20%
162.35%
22.14%
9.64%
56.65%
26.31%
77.96%
158.53%
31.16%
31.01%
29.41%
51.16%
54.44%
155.37%
17.30%
85.85%
52.12%
34.89%
39.80%
2.90%
7.87%
18.75%
5.03%
44.82%
16.58%
87.51%
1.32%
34.56%
16.52%
24.49%
43.95%
Month Actual Forecast Forecast
Jan-14 1790290 1950593.333 2031900
Feb-14 3481990 1714793.333 1821253
Mar-14 4384980 2463273.333 1992870
Apr-14 4631650 3219086.667 2584840
May-14 4883260 4166206.667 2940500
Jun-14 5587310 4633296.667 3548285
Jul-14 20807900 5034073.333 4126580
Aug-14 4953944 10426156.67 7296182
Sep-14 7920766 10449718 7541507
Oct-14 8098074 11227536.67 8130805
Nov-14 5651363 6990928 8708542
Dec-14 8866198 7223401 8836560
Jan-15 4412739 7538545 9383041
Feb-15 2351934 6310100 6650514 Six-Period Movin
Mar-15 6063970 5210290.333 6216846 50000000
Apr-15 7491518 4276214.333 5907380 45000000
May-15 8579014 5302474 5806287 40000000
Jun-15 14961309 7378167.333 6294229 35000000
Jul-15 35515042 10343947 7310081 30000000
Aug-15 9215456 19685121.67 12493798 25000000
Sep-15 15826092 19897269 13637718 20000000
Oct-15 9168621 20185530 15264739 15000000
Nov-15 8858105 11403389.67 15544256 10000000
Dec-15 15385103 11284272.67 15590771 5000000
Jan-16 9202318 11137276.33 15661403 0
Feb-16 10391970 11148508.67 11275949 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15
Mar-16 11603831 11659797 11472035 Actual
Apr-16 13931570 10399373 10768325
May-16 13000314 11975790.33 11562150
Jun-16 43960083 12845238.33 12252518
Jul-16 24430419 23630655.67 17015014
Aug-16 14158469 27130272 19553031
Sep-16 19774524 27516323.67 20180781
Oct-16 15968109 19454470.67 21542563 Three-Period Moving Avera
Nov-16 15014633 16633700.67 21881986
50000000
Dec-16 21033111 16919088.67 22217706 45000000
40000000
35000000
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
Jan-14
Jan-15
Mar-14
May-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Ma r-15
May-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Ja n-16
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jul -14
Apr-15
Jul -15
Actual Foreca st
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul -14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Ma r-15
Actual
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul -15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Foreca st
Nov-15
Dec-15
Ja n-16
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Ma r-15
Actual
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul -15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Actual
Foreca st
Nov-15
Dec-15
Ja n-16
Feb-16
Ma r-16
Forecast
May-16
Jun-16
Jul -16
Aug-16
Actual
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul -15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Foreca st
Nov-15
Dec-15
Ja n-16
Feb-16
Ma r-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul -16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Month Monthy Sales
Jan-14 1790290
Feb-14 3481990
Mar-14 4384980
Apr-14 4631650
May-14 4883260
Jun-14 5587310
Jul-14 20807900
Aug-14 4953944
Sep-14 7920766
Oct-14 8098074
Nov-14 5651363
Dec-14 8866198
Jan-15 4412739
Feb-15 2351934
Mar-15 6063970
Apr-15 7491518
May-15 8579014
Jun-15 14961309
Jul-15 35515042
Aug-15 9215456
Sep-15 15826092
Oct-15 9168621
Exponenti al Smoothing
50000000
45000000
40000000
35000000
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
Ja n-16 Ma r-16 May-16 Jul -16 Sep-16 Nov-16
Actual Forecast
Month Actual Forecast Forecast
Jan-14 1790290 1825877 1825877
Feb-14 3481990 1859781.5 1859781.5
Mar-14 4384980 2629853.5 2629853.5
Apr-14 4631650 3543285 3543285
May-14 4883260 4113397.5 4113397.5
Jun-14 5587310 4605488.5 4605488.5
Jul-14 20807900 5147715.5 4119566.5
Aug-14 4953944 12996431.5 12996431.5
Sep-14 7920766 9005369.5 6167247
Oct-14 8098074 8878785 8878785
Nov-14 5651363 8853110.1 8853110.1
Dec-14 8866198 6533709.3 6533709.3
Jan-15 4412739 7852727.45 7852727.45
Feb-15 2351934 6080430.85 6080430.85 Weighted M
Mar-15 6063970 4174217.75 4174217.75
50000000
Apr-15 7491518 5168499.15 5168499.15
45000000
May-15 8579014 6055815.5 6055815.5 40000000
Jun-15 14961309 7307175.4 7307175.4 35000000
Jul-15 35515042 11355532.7 16180281.15 30000000
Aug-15 9215456 23533852.15 23533852.15 25000000
Sep-15 15826092 16588586.25 13087634.2 20000000
Oct-15 9168621 17040297.2 17040297.2 15000000
Nov-15 8858105 13474656.1 13474656.1 10000000
Dec-15 15385103 10016667.15 10016667.15 5000000
Jan-16 9202318 12864980.1 12864980.1 0
Ja n-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-1
Feb-16 10391970 10693012.6 10693012.6
Mar-16 11603831 10690140.45 10690140.45 Act
35000000
20000000
30000000
15000000 25000000
20000000
10000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
5000000
0 0
Ja n-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul -14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Ma r-15
Monthly Sales of 2016
50000000
45000000
40000000
35000000
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul -16 Sep-16 Nov-16
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
0
Jan-15 Ma r-15 May-15 Jul -15 Sep-15 Nov-15
Month Sales of 2014 Sales of 2015 Sales of 2016
January 1790290 4412739 9202318
February 3481990 2351934 10391970
March 4384980 6063970 11603831
April 4631650 7491518 13931570
May 4883260 8579014 13000314
June 5587310 14961309 43960083
July 20807900 35515042 24430419
August 4953944 9215456 14158469 Monthly Sales (2014-
September 7920766 15826092 19774524 50000000
October 8098074 9168621 15968109 45000000
40000000
November 5651363 8858105 15014633
35000000
December 8866198 15385103 21033111 30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
ar
y
ar
y ch ri l ay ne ly s
u ru ar Ap M Ju Ju gu
Ja
n b M Au
Fe
ri l ay ne Ju
ly u st
be
r
b er be
r
be
r
Ap M Ju ug m to m
A te Oc ve c em
S ep N o
De
Percentage
Oth
66.66%
33.34%
Ei d Sa l es Other Sal es