27/8/2018 Argentina Economy - GDP, Inflation, CPI and Interest Rate

Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

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Argentina Economic Outlook

August 7, 2018

Recently released data shows that the financial storm that hit the country in the second quarter, coupled with a prolonged drought, took a heavy toll on th
economy. Economic activity contracted sharply in May, after a small drop in April, dragged down by plunging agricultural output. This also affected the
labor market, which saw the number of employees fall in April–May, and weighed heavily on consumer confidence in Q2. In an effort to reduce the fiscal
deficit—one of the goals of the stand-by arrangement reached with the IMF in June—the government announced it will gradually raise public transport
tariffs in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area. Moreover, the federal housing plan will be discontinued, and capital spending will be cut.

Argentina Economic Growth

Despite a healthy first quarter, the pace of growth is expected to slow sharply this year. The loss of agricultural output following the severe drought;
extremely high interest rates and currency volatility, which will weigh on investment decisions; and consumer spending constrained by low confidence an
rapid inflation are seen driving this deceleration. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast foresee the economy expanding 0.4% in
2018, down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, growth is expected to reach 1.9%.

Argentina Economy Data

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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Population (million) 42.2 42.7 43.1 43.6 44.1

GDP per capita (USD) 14,540 13,133 15,110 12,507 14,609

GDP (USD bn) 614 560 652 554 644

Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) 2.4 -2.5 2.7 -1.8 2.9

Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 4.0 -3.9 4.2 -1.3 6.3

Consumption (annual variation in %) 3.6 -4.4 3.7 -1.0 3.6

Investment (annual variation in %) 2.3 -6.8 3.5 -4.9 11.3

Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 0.0 -1.8 0.4 -4.6 1.8

Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 26.7 37.3 27.3 26.2 20.8

Unemployment Rate 7.1 7.3 7.1 8.4 8.4

Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -2.4 -3.9 -5.9 -6.0

Public Debt (% of GDP) 43.5 44.7 52.6 53.3 57.1

Money (annual variation in %) 25.7 28.9 28.2 30.4 26.0

Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 26.6 38.0 26.9 41.0 26.1

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27/8/2018 Argentina Economy - GDP, Inflation, CPI and Interest Rate

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) 18.4 38.0 26.7 41.2 27.7

Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 14.8 28.3 - - -

Benchmark Interest Rate (%) 21.63 20.38 27.25 19.88 23.25

Stock Market (annual variation in %) 88.9 59.1 36.1 44.9 77.7

Exchange Rate (vs USD) 6.52 8.46 12.94 15.86 18.60

Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) 32.63 29.83 52.85 22.60 17.30

Current Account (% of GDP) -2.1 -1.6 -2.6 -2.7 -4.8

Current Account Balance (USD bn) -13.0 -8.9 -16.8 -15.0 -30.8
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Trade Balance (USD billion) 1.5 3.2 -3.0 2.1 -8.5

Exports (USD billion) 76.0 68.4 56.8 57.7 58.415

Imports (USD billion) 74.4 65.2 59.8 55.6 66.9

Exports (annual variation in %) -5.0 -9.9 -17.0 1.7 1.2

Imports (annual variation in %) 9.5 -12.4 -8.4 -6.9 20.3

International Reserves (USD) 30.6 31.4 25.6 38.8 55.1

External Debt (% of GDP) 25.9 29.0 26.1 34.7 36.2

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Argentina Facts
Value Change Date

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Bond Yield 6.69 0.15 % Dec 17

Exchange Rate 30.86 0.45 % Aug 24

Stock Market 25,168 2.26 % Aug 24

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Argentina Economic News

Argentina: Inflation continues to climb in July
August 16, 2018

According to the National Statistics Institute (INDEC), national consumer prices rose 3.1% over the previous month in July, coming in below June’s 3.7%
month-on-month increase.

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27/8/2018 Argentina Economy - GDP, Inflation, CPI and Interest Rate

Argentina: Central Bank tightens monetary conditions despite plunging

economic activity
August 13, 2018

In a pair of meetings in August, the Central Bank of Argentina (Banco Central de la República Argentina, BCRA) decided to change its key policy
instrument from the seven-day repo reference rate (seven-day LEBAC rate) to the seven-day liquidity bills rate (seven-day LELIQ rate).

Argentina: Central Bank maintains tight monetary conditions despite plunging

economic activity
August 8, 2018

At its latest meeting held on 7 August, the Central Bank of Argentina (Banco Central de la República Argentina, BCRA) decided to change its key policy
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instrument from the seven-day repo reference rate (seven-day LEBAC rate) to the seven-day liquidity bills rate (seven-day LELIQ rate).

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Argentina: Industrial production contracts at sharper pace in June
August 3, 2018

In June, industrial production plunged 8.1% over the same month last year, according to data released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC) on 2
August.

Argentina: Trade deficit narrows in June on declining imports

July 26, 2018

Exports fell 1.4% in year-on-year terms in June, an improvement from May’s revised 6.5% year-on-year contraction (previously reported: -6.0% year-on-
year).

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