EgyE

236 Energy Systems Modeling

Homework 5
Due: 28 November 2018, 11:55 PM, submit through the UVLE

Problem 1

Using the screening curve method, solve for the generation mix in the following
power system.

Coal Plant Advanced Advanced
Advanced Single Natural Gas Combustion
Unit Combined Cycle Turbine Gas
(Plant 1) (Plant 2) Plant (Plant 3)
Capacity (MW) 650 400 210
Heat rate (btu/kWh) 8,800 6,430 9750
Plant cost ($/kW) 3,167 1,003 665
Fixed O&M ($/kW-yr) 35.97 14.62 6.7
Variable O&M ($/MWh) 4.25 3.11 9.87
Fuel cost ($/MMbtu) 4.00 12 12
Fuel escalation (%/yr) 4.00 5.00 5.00
Discount rate (%/yr) 10%
Levelizing period (yrs) 30 25 25

The load duration curve is estimated using the following function:

Normalized load = 1 – 4.22x + 18.24x2 – 37.63x3 + 34.77x4 – 11.81x5, where x is the
fraction of total hours in a year.

a. At what range of capacity factors the three plants would operate at least
cost?
b. Solve for the total demand (MWh) for the entire year. What percent of the
total demand should be provided by each of the three plants?








Problem 2

The generation portfolio of a small power system is as follows:

Capacity Forced Outage
Rate
40 MW 0.02
30 MW 0.02
20 MW 0.01
20 MW 0.01

System load data:

Daily peak
72 67 63 58 55 51 48 46
load
Number of
17 25 47 100 77 52 42 5
occurrences

a. Build the generating capacity outage probability table for the system
b. Solve for the loss of load probability (LOLP) in days/year.