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Article history: In this paper, the estimation problem (point and interval) is studied under the exponentiated exponen-
Received 15 April 2016 tial (EE) distribution based on an adaptive progressive type-II censoring scheme. In point estimation, the
Revised 9 May 2017
maximum likelihood estimates (MLE s) and Bayes estimates (BE s), based on squared error (SE) and linear
Accepted 12 June 2017
exponential (LINEX) loss functions, are computed. Also, the approximate confidence intervals for the pa-
Available online 28 June 2017
rameters of EE distribution are obtained. A comparison study is made between the BE s and MLE s using
MSC: the estimated risks (ER s) criterion. Finally, point and interval estimations of all parameters are studied
62F10 based on a generated adaptive type-II progressive censoring sample from a real data set as illustrative
62F15 example.
62N01
62N02 © 2017 Egyptian Mathematical Society. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.
Keywords: (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Exponentiated exponential distribution
Adaptive progressive type-II censoring
Markov Chain Monte Carlo method
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joems.2017.06.001
1110-256X/© 2017 Egyptian Mathematical Society. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
394 S.F. Ateya, H.S. Mohammed / Journal of the Egyptian Mathematical Society 25 (2017) 393–399
tion study is carried out in Section 5. Real data is introduced as 3. Bayesian estimation
illustrative example in Section 6. Finally, some concluding remarks
are introduced in Section 7. Suppose that the prior PDF π (α , γ ) is given by
π ( α , γ ) = π 1 ( γ ) π2 ( α | γ ) . (3.1)
2. Maximum likelihood estimation
Suppose that also π 1 (γ ) is Gamma(a1 , 1/a2 ) and π 2 (α|γ ) is
Let Xi = XiR:m:n , i = 1, 2, . . . , m, be the adaptive progressively Gamma(b1 , γ /b2 ) with respective densities
type-II censored sample from EE distribution with censored γ
1
where X0:m:n = 0 and Xm+1:m:n = ∞, we set RJ+1 = . . . = Rm−1 = 0 π (α , γ ) ∝ γ a1 +b1 −1 α b1 −1 exp −γ + . (3.4)
J b2 a2
and Rm = n − m − i=1 Ri . This formulation leads us to terminate
the experiment as soon as possible if the (J + 1 )th failure time is Therefore, the joint posterior density of the parameters α and γ
greater than T for J + 1 < m. can be obtained from (2.3) and (3.4), and written as
If the failure times of the n items originally on the test are from π ∗ (α , γ | x ) ∝ α m+b1 −1 γ m+a1 +b1 −1
a continuous population with CDF F(x; θ ) and PDF f(x; θ ), for J =
j, the likelihood function of the vector of parameters θ given the
1 α m
m
m
× exp − γ + − ln Zi − α xi − ln Zi
vector of observations x is given by (see Ng et al. [11]) a2 b2
i=1 i=1 i=1
m j
j j
γ C j
L (θ ; x ) = d j f ( xi ; θ ) [1 − F (xi ; θ )]Ri [1 − F (xm ; θ )]n−m− i=1 Ri , × (1 − Ziγ ) R
i
1 − Zm , (3.5)
i=1 i=1 i=1
0 < x1 < x2 < . . . < xm < ∞, (2.1) where Zi and Cj are as given in (2.4).
The BE of an unknown parameter depends on the form of the
where
loss function. In this paper, The BE s have been considered un-
m
max{i−1, j}
der two different loss functions, the symmetric SE and the asym-
dj = n−i+1− Rk . (2.2) metric LINEX loss functions. Under the SE loss function, the BE of
i=1 k=1 the parameter is the posterior mean. The LINEX loss function is
By substituting from (1.1) and (1.2) in (2.1), then the likelihood defined as
function is given by
Ł( ) = eλ − λ − 1, λ = 0, (3.6)
m
j
γ −1 where = φˆ (θ ) − φ (θ ), the scalar estimation error when φ (θ ) is
L (α , γ ; x ) = d j α m γ m e −α x i Z ( 1 − Z γ )Ri (1 − Zmγ )C j ,
i i
estimated by φˆ (θ ), for more details see Varian [14]. The sign of the
i=1 i=1
(2.3) constant λ represents the direction and its magnitude represents
the degree of asymmetry. For λ close to zero, the LINEX is approxi-
where mately SE loss function and therefore almost symmetric. Under the
j LINEX loss function, the Bayes estimate is given by
Z i = 1 − e −α x i , Cj = n − m − Ri , i = 1, 2, . . . , m. (2.4) 1
i=1 φˆ BL = − ln(Eφ (e−λφ (θ ) | x )), (3.7)
λ
The natural logarithm of the likelihood function (2.3) is given by where λ is constant.
m
m Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique, the BE
≡ ln L(α , γ ; x ) ∝ m ln α + m ln γ − α xi + ( γ − 1 ) ln Zi of the function η ≡ η(α , γ ) under SE and LINEX loss functions can
i=1 i=1 be written, respectively, in the forms
j
γ γ
N
+ Ri ln(1 − Zi ) + C j ln(1 − Zm ). (2.5) ηˆ BS =
1
η (αi , γi ), (3.8)
i=1 N−M
i=M+1
When the two parameters α and γ are unknown, the likelihood and
equations for these parameters can be written as
1
1 N
∂
m m
x i e −α x i j
Z
γ −1
x i e −α x i ηˆ BL = − ln exp(−λη (αi , γi )) , (3.9)
=
m
− x + (γ − 1) −γ Ri i λ N−M
(1 − Ziγ )
i=M+1
∂α α i=1 i i=1
Zi
i=1
where η (αi , γi ), i = 1, 2, . . . , N are generated from the posterior
γ −1
Zm x m e −α x m PDF (3.5) (using The Gibbs and Metropolis-Hatings algorithms) and
− γ Cj = 0, (2.6)
(1 − Zmγ ) M is the burn-in period (that is, a number of iterations before the
stationary distribution is achieved).
and
γ γ
∂ m
m j
Z ln Zi Zm ln Zm 4. Interval estimation
= + ln Zi − Ri i − C = 0, (2.7)
∂γ γ i=1 (1 − Ziγ ) (1 − Zmγ )
j
i=1 In this section, we will study the approximate confidence inter-
where Zi and Cj are as given by (2.4). By solving the system of val, credibility interval (CI) and highest posterior density interval
Eqs. (2.6) and (2.7) numerically we obtain the MLE s of α and γ . (HPD) for the two parameters α and γ .
S.F. Ateya, H.S. Mohammed / Journal of the Egyptian Mathematical Society 25 (2017) 393–399 395
4.1. Approximate confidence interval Substituting from (4.8) in (4.7), we obtain simple formulas to com-
pute the credibility intervals for α and γ in the following forms
Let x1 < x2 < . . . < xm denote an adaptive progressively type-II N
1 ∞ ∗ τ
censored sample from EE distribution with parameters α and γ . In π (α , γi | x )dα = 1 − ,
this section, the approximate confidence intervals for the param- N Lα 2
i=1
eters of EE distribution are obtained based the previous censored N
1 ∞ ∗ τ
sample. From Eqs. (2.6) and (2.7), we have π (α , γi | x )dα = ,
N Uα 2
i=1
x2i e−α xi j
∂ 2 m
m
W2i (α , γ ; xi ) N
= − 2 − (γ − 1 ) −γ Ri x2i e−α xi 1 ∞ ∗ τ
∂α 2 α i=1
Z 2
i i=1
(1 − Ziγ )2 π (γ , αi , | x )dγ = 1 − ,
N Lγ 2
W2i (α , γ ; xm ) i=1
− γ C j x2m e−αxm , (4.1) N
(1 − Zmγ )2 1 ∞ ∗ τ
π (γ , αi , | x )dγ = . (4.9)
N Uγ 2
i=1
γ γ
Z (ln Zi )2
j
∂ 2 m Zm (ln Zm )2
=− 2 − Ri i γ 2 − Cj , (4.2) 4.3. Highest posterior density interval
∂γ 2 γ i=1
( 1 − Zi ) (1 − Zmγ )2
A (1 − τ ) × 100% HPD interval for α is obtained by solving the
and
following two nonlinear equations
γ −1
∂ 2 m
x i e −α x i
j
Z (1 + γ ln Zi − Ziγ ) N
1 Uα
= − R i x i e −α x i i π ∗ (α , γi | x )dα = 1 − τ ,
∂ α∂ γ i=1
Zi
i=1
(1 − Ziγ )2 N Lα
i=1
γ −1
Zm (1 + γ ln Zm − Zmγ )
N
N
− C j x m e −α x m , (4.3)
(1 − Zmγ )2 π ∗ (Lα , γi | x ) = π ∗ (Uα , γi | x ). (4.10)
i=1 i=1
where
Similarly, the (1 − τ ) × 100% HPD interval for γ is obtained by
γ γ −1 γ −2 −α xi
W2i (α , γ ; xi ) = (1 − Zi )(−Zi − Zi e ) + γ Z γ −2 e−αxi . (4.4)
i
solving the following two nonlinear equations
N
The Fisher information matrix I(α , γ ) is obtained by taking the ex- 1 Uγ
pectation of negative of Eqs. (4.1)–(4.3). In practice, I−1 (α , γ ) can
π ∗ (γ , αi , | x )dγ = 1 − τ ,
N Lγ
i=1
be estimated by I−1 (αˆ , γˆ ). In case of the large samples, we can use
the approximation (αˆ , γˆ ) ∼ N ((α , γ ), I0−1 (αˆ , γˆ )), where I0 (αˆ , γˆ ) is
N
N
Table 1
MLE s, BE s and ER s of the estimates of α and γ for prior parameters (a1 = 2.0, a2 = 1.0, b1 =
2.0, b2 = 1.0 ), α = 0.7126 and γ = 3.6683.
6. Application analyzed using EE(α , γ ). The K–S, AIC, BIC and P-value have been
computed in Table 4.
To illustrate the use of the estimation methods proposed in this From Table 4, under significance level (0.05) and using
paper, a real data set from Lawless [10] has been used. These data Kolmogorov–Smirnov table, the critical value for K–S test statistic
represent the breakdown time of an insulating fluid between elec- is 0.30143 which is greater than the computed K–S test statistics.
trodes at a voltage of 34 kv (min). The 19 times to breakdown are Also, we can see that the P-value corresponding to the K–S test
0.96, 4.15, 0.19, 0.78, 8.01, 31.75, 7.35, 6.50, 8.27, 33.91, 32.52, 3.16, statistics for the introduced distribution is greater than the signifi-
4.85, 2.78, 4.67, 1.31, 12.06, 36.71 and 72.89. These real data are cance level (0.05) which also means that the introduced model fits
the real data set well.
S.F. Ateya, H.S. Mohammed / Journal of the Egyptian Mathematical Society 25 (2017) 393–399 397
Table 2
MLE s, BE s and ER s of the estimates of α and γ for prior parameters (a1 = 1.5, a2 = 1.5, b1 =
2, b2 = 2 ), α = 1.1889 and γ = 4.3973.
For more illustration, Fig. 1 shows the fitted CDF and the empir- rameters α and γ are obtained in Table 5. Moreover, the result of
ical CDF of EE distribution, respectively, computed at the estimated 95% confidence intervals, CI and HPD intervals of α and γ are given
parameters where the dotted curve represents the empirical CDF in Tables 6 and 7.
curve. Also, Fig. 2 shows the histogram of the real data and the fit-
ted PDF of EE distribution, respectively, computed at the estimated
7. Concluding remarks
parameters where the dotted curve represents the fitted PDF curve.
We use m = 10, T = 12, and R = (3, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 0 ). In this
In this paper, the estimation problem (point and interval) is
case the adaptive progressive censored sample is (0.19, 2.78, 3.16,
studied based on adaptive progressive type-II censoring scheme of
4.15, 6.50, 7.35, 8.01, 12.06, 31.75, 32.52). The estimates of the pa-
EE distribution. Also, a real data set is introduced as illustrative
398 S.F. Ateya, H.S. Mohammed / Journal of the Egyptian Mathematical Society 25 (2017) 393–399
Table 3
Coverage probability for the approximate ML confidence intervals, CI and HPD intervals with prior
parameters (a1 = 1.0, a2 = 1.0, b1 = 3.0, b2 = 3.0 ), α = 5.3599, γ = 2.1419 and τ = 0.05.
α ML γ ML αB γB αB γB
2 20 10 I 88.97% 87.43% 99.06% 99.88% 99.4% 99.8%
II 86.72% 87.36% 98.16% 99.89% 98.1% 99.8%
III 90.79% 91.05% 98.48% 99.81% 98.01% 99.91%
1 20 10 I 88.97% 87.43% 99.06% 99.88% 98.88% 99.92%
II 86.86% 87.43% 98.16% 99.80% 97.40% 99.85%
III 90.67% 90.71% 98.48% 99.67% 98.23% 99.86%
2 70 50 I 95.77% 94.66% 96.42% 97.11% 96.52% 97.10%
II 95.83% 95.34% 96.17% 96.87% 99.99% 98.20%
III 95.81% 94.03% 96.70% 96.57% 99.78% 83.32%
1 70 50 I 95.77% 94.66% 96.42% 97.11% 96.52% 97.10%
II 96.29% 95.62% 96.49% 96.97% 99.91% 98.35%
III 95.86% 94.19% 97.11% 96.88% 99.81% 82.91%
Table 4
MLE s of the parameters, the associated Kolmogorov – Smirnov K–S, AIC and BIC values.
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0 20 40 60 80
Fig. 2. The histogram of the real data and the fitted PDF of EE distribution.
S.F. Ateya, H.S. Mohammed / Journal of the Egyptian Mathematical Society 25 (2017) 393–399 399
Table 5 3. In all cases, as λ tends to zero, the ER s of the BE s using the
The MLE s of α and γ for prior parameters (a1 = 1.0, a2 =
LINEX loss function are the same using the SEL function.
1.0, b1 = 1.0, b2 = 2.0 ).
4. From Table 3, we see that the coverage probabilities of the ap-
T (n, m) Method αˆ γˆ proximate confidence intervals are close to the desired level of
12 (19,10) ML 0.9339 1.0 0 0 0 0.95 for α ML and γ ML in case of the large sample size, but not
B SEL 0.0504 1.0172 close to the desired level in case of the small sample size.
LINEX λ = −2 0.0509 1.1635 5. Also, from Table 3, we see that the coverage probabilities of
λ = 0.0 0 01 0.0504 1.0172
Bayes confidence intervals and HPD intervals are nearly close
λ=2 0.0499 0.9129
to the desired level of 0.95 for α B and γ B in most cases.
Table 6 References
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asymmetric loss functions (LINEX) are sensitive to the value of
the shape parameter λ, also, the BE s based on symmetric and
asymmetric loss functions are better than the MLE s.