CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: MALAYSIA

YEAR t CPI Yt-1 Yt-Ybar (Yt-1)-Ybar (Y-Ybar)^2

1960 1 31.3 -29.9052632 894.3247645429
1961 2 31.3 31.3 -29.9052632 -29.905263158 894.3247645429
1962 3 31.3 31.3 -29.9052632 -29.905263158 894.3247645429
1963 4 32.2 31.3 -29.0052632 -29.905263158 841.3052908587
1964 5 32.1 32.2 -29.1052632 -29.005263158 847.1163434903
1965 6 32.9 32.1 -28.3052632 -29.105263158 801.1879224377
1966 7 33.4 32.9 -27.8052632 -28.305263158 773.1326592798
1967 8 34.8 33.4 -26.4052632 -27.805263158 697.2379224377
1968 9 34.7 34.8 -26.5052632 -26.405263158 702.5289750693
1969 10 34.6 34.7 -26.6052632 -26.505263158 707.8400277008
1970 11 35.3 34.6 -25.9052632 -26.605263158 671.0826592798
1971 12 35.8 35.3 -25.4052632 -25.905263158 645.4273961219
1972 13 36.9 35.8 -24.3052632 -25.405263158 590.7458171745
1973 14 40.6 36.9 -20.6052632 -24.305263158 424.5768698061
1974 15 47.5 40.6 -13.7052632 -20.605263158 187.8342382271
1975 16 49.7 47.5 -11.5052632 -13.705263158 132.3710803324
1976 17 51.1 49.7 -10.1052632 -11.505263158 102.1163434903
1977 18 53.5 51.1 -7.70526316 -10.105263158 59.3710803324
1978 19 55.9 53.5 -5.30526316 -7.7052631579 28.1458171745
1979 20 57.8 55.9 -3.40526316 -5.3052631579 11.5958171745
1980 21 61.8 57.8 0.594736842 -3.4052631579 0.3537119114
1981 22 67.8 61.8 6.594736842 0.5947368421 43.4905540166
1982 23 71.7 67.8 10.49473684 6.5947368421 110.139501385
1983 24 74.4 71.7 13.19473684 10.4947368421 174.1010803324
1984 25 77 74.4 15.79473684 13.1947368421 249.4737119114
1985 26 77.3 77 16.09473684 15.7947368421 259.0405540166
1986 27 77.8 77.3 16.59473684 16.0947368421 275.3852908587
1987 28 78.4 77.8 17.19473684 16.5947368421 295.6589750693
1988 29 80.4 78.4 19.19473684 17.1947368421 368.4379224377
1989 30 82.6 80.4 21.39473684 19.1947368421 457.7347645429
1990 31 85.2 82.6 23.99473684 21.3947368421 575.7473961219
1991 32 88.9 85.2 27.69473684 23.9947368421 766.9984487535
1992 33 93.1 88.9 31.89473684 27.6947368421 1017.274238227
1993 34 96.4 93.1 35.19473684 31.8947368421 1238.669501385
1994 35 100 96.4 38.79473684 35.1947368421 1505.031606648
1995 36 103.4 100 42.19473684 38.7947368421 1780.395817175
1996 37 107 103.4 45.79473684 42.1947368421 2097.157922438
1997 38 109.9 107 48.69473684 45.7947368421 2371.177396122
2325.8 24492.85894737

Ybar 61.205263
r1 0.9277332 CPI
r2 0.8516744
r3 0.7747759 1
r4 0.69841 0.9
r5 0.6225149 0.8
r6 0.5485341 0.7
r7 0.4776951
0.6
r8 0.4093481
0.5
r9 0.3399692
r10 0.2693801 0.4
r11 0.198329 0.3
r12 0.1240671 0.2
r13 0.0476169 0.1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

The autocorrelation slowly down going to down

(Yt-Ybar)(Yt-1-Ybar) Yt-2 (Yt-2)-Ybar (Yt-Ybar)(Yt-2-Ybar)

894.3247645429
894.3247645429 31.3 -29.9052632 894.3247645429
867.4100277008 31.3 -29.9052632 867.4100277008
844.2058171745 31.3 -29.9052632 870.4005540166
823.832132964 32.2 -29.0052632 821.0016066482
787.0352908587 32.1 -29.1052632 809.279501385
734.2052908587 32.9 -28.3052632 747.4079224377
699.8784487535 33.4 -27.8052632 736.9858171745
705.179501385 34.8 -26.4052632 702.5189750693
689.2163434903 34.7 -26.5052632 686.6258171745
658.1300277008 34.6 -26.6052632 675.9137119114
617.4816066482 35.3 -25.9052632 629.6342382271
500.8163434903 35.8 -25.4052632 523.482132964
282.4005540166 36.9 -24.3052632 333.1100277008
157.6826592798 40.6 -20.6052632 237.0689750693
116.2637119114 47.5 -13.7052632 138.4952908587
77.8637119114 49.7 -11.5052632 88.6510803324
40.8784487535 51.1 -10.1052632 53.6110803324
18.0658171745 53.5 -7.70526316 26.2384487535
-2.0252354571 55.9 -5.30526316 -3.1552354571
3.922132964 57.8 -3.40526316 -22.4568144044
69.2100277008 61.8 0.59473684 6.2416066482
138.4752908587 67.8 6.59473684 87.0158171745
208.4073961219 71.7 10.4947368 165.7616066482
254.212132964 74.4 13.1947368 212.3658171745
267.0879224377 77 15.7947368 262.109501385
285.342132964 77.3 16.0947368 276.7447645429
330.0484487535 77.8 16.5947368 318.5316066482
410.6663434903 78.4 17.1947368 367.8768698061
513.3610803324 80.4 19.1947368 460.5726592798
664.5279224377 82.6 21.3947368 592.5216066482
883.3163434903 85.2 23.9947368 765.3058171745
1122.5268698061 88.9 27.6947368 974.7089750693
1365.3705540166 93.1 31.8947368 1237.3479224377
1636.9337119114 96.4 35.1947368 1485.0326592798
1932.2968698061 100 38.7947368 1776.5947645429
2229.9626592798 103.4 42.1947368 2054.6616066482
22722.837867036 20859.9415235457

1 2
 CPI

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

owly down going to down

Yt-3 (Yt-3)-(Ybar) (Yt-Ybar)(Yt-3-Ybar) yt-4

31.3 -29.9052632 867.4100277008

31.3 -29.9052632 870.4005540166 31.3
31.3 -29.9052632 846.4763434903 31.3
32.2 -29.0052632 806.4989750693 31.3
32.1 -29.1052632 768.532132964 32.2
32.9 -28.3052632 750.2384487535 32.1
33.4 -27.8052632 739.7663434903 32.9
34.8 -26.4052632 684.0352908587 33.4
34.7 -26.5052632 673.3731855956 34.8
34.6 -26.6052632 646.6479224377 34.7
35.3 -25.9052632 533.7847645429 34.6
35.8 -25.4052632 348.1858171745 35.3
36.9 -24.3052632 279.6384487535 35.8
40.6 -20.6052632 208.2216066482 36.9
47.5 -13.7052632 105.6026592798 40.6
49.7 -11.5052632 61.0384487535 47.5
51.1 -10.1052632 34.4110803324 49.7
53.5 -7.70526316 -4.5826038781 51.1
55.9 -5.30526316 -34.9868144044 53.5
57.8 -3.40526316 -35.7373407202 55.9
61.8 0.594736842 7.8473961219 57.8
67.8 6.594736842 104.162132964 61.8
71.7 10.49473684 168.9100277008 67.8
74.4 13.19473684 218.9631855956 71.7
77 15.79473684 271.5863434903 74.4
77.3 16.09473684 308.9342382271 77
77.8 16.59473684 355.0400277008 77.3
78.4 17.19473684 412.5831855956 77.8
80.4 19.19473684 531.5931855956 78.4
82.6 21.39473684 682.379501385 80.4
85.2 23.99473684 844.4884487535 82.6
88.9 27.69473684 1074.4100277008 85.2
93.1 31.89473684 1345.7900277008 88.9
96.4 35.19473684 1611.7337119114 93.1
100 38.79473684 1889.0995013851 96.4
18976.476232687

3
(Yt-4)-(Ybar) (Yt-Ybar)(Yt-4-Ybar) yt-5 (Yt-5)-(Ybar) (Yt-Ybar)(Yt-5-Ybar)

-29.90526316 870.4005540166
-29.90526316 846.4763434903 31.3 -29.9052631579 846.4763434903
-29.90526316 831.5237119114 31.3 -29.9052631579 831.5237119114
-29.00526316 765.8916066482 31.3 -29.9052631579 789.6563434903
-29.10526316 771.4426592798 32.2 -29.0052631579 768.792132964
-28.30526316 753.0689750693 32.1 -29.1052631579 774.3531855956
-27.80526316 720.3026592798 32.9 -28.3052631579 733.2552908587
-26.40526316 670.8326592798 33.4 -27.8052631579 706.4000277008
-26.50526316 644.2173961219 34.8 -26.4052631579 641.7868698061
-26.60526316 548.2084487535 34.7 -26.5052631579 546.1479224377
-25.90526316 355.0384487535 34.6 -26.6052631579 364.632132964
-25.40526316 292.2942382271 35.3 -25.9052631579 298.0468698061
-24.30526316 245.6110803324 35.8 -25.4052631579 256.7268698061
-20.60526316 158.7689750693 36.9 -24.3052631579 187.2784487535
-13.70526316 72.7100277008 40.6 -20.6052631579 109.3163434903
-11.50526316 39.1784487535 47.5 -13.7052631579 46.6700277008
-10.10526316 -6.0099722992 49.7 -11.5052631579 -6.8426038781
-7.705263158 -50.8141828255 51.1 -10.1052631579 -66.6415512465
-5.305263158 -55.6773407202 53.5 -7.7052631579 -80.8647091413
-3.405263158 -44.9315512465 55.9 -5.3052631579 -70.0015512465
0.5947368421 9.3937119114 57.8 -3.4052631579 -53.7852354571
6.5947368421 106.1405540166 61.8 0.5947368421 9.572132964
10.494736842 174.1573961219 67.8 6.5947368421 109.4379224377
13.194736842 226.8800277008 71.7 10.4947368421 180.4542382271
15.794736842 303.1758171745 74.4 13.1947368421 253.269501385
16.094736842 344.3426592798 77 15.7947368421 337.9242382271
16.594736842 398.1863434903 77.3 16.0947368421 386.1889750693
17.194736842 476.2037119114 77.8 16.5947368421 459.5868698061
19.194736842 612.2110803324 78.4 17.1947368421 548.4216066482
21.394736842 752.982132964 80.4 19.1947368421 675.5537119114
23.994736842 930.869501385 82.6 21.3947368421 830.0031855956
27.694736842 1168.572132964 85.2 23.9947368421 1012.4516066482
31.894736842 1460.6110803324 88.9 27.6947368421 1268.2731855956
35.194736842 1713.7984487535 93.1 31.8947368421 1553.1058171745
17106.0577839335 15247.1698614958

4 5
yt-6 (Yt-6)-(Ybar) (Yt-Ybar)(Yt-6-Ybar) yt-7

31.3 -29.9052631579 831.5237119114

31.3 -29.9052631579 789.6563434903 31.3
31.3 -29.9052631579 792.6468698061 31.3
32.2 -29.0052631579 771.6926592798 31.3
32.1 -29.1052631579 753.979501385 32.2
32.9 -28.3052631579 719.1026592798 32.1
33.4 -27.8052631579 675.8142382271 32.9
34.8 -26.4052631579 544.0873961219 33.4
34.7 -26.5052631579 363.2616066482 34.8
34.6 -26.6052631579 306.1005540166 34.7
35.3 -25.9052631579 261.779501385 34.6
35.8 -25.4052631579 195.7542382271 35.3
36.9 -24.3052631579 128.9458171745 35.8
40.6 -20.6052631579 70.1663434903 36.9
47.5 -13.7052631579 -8.1510249307 40.6
49.7 -11.5052631579 -75.8741828255 47.5
51.1 -10.1052631579 -106.0520775623 49.7
53.5 -7.7052631579 -101.6689196676 51.1
55.9 -5.3052631579 -83.7952354571 53.5
57.8 -3.4052631579 -54.8068144044 55.9
61.8 0.5947368421 9.869501385 57.8
67.8 6.5947368421 113.3947645429 61.8
71.7 10.4947368421 201.4437119114 67.8
74.4 13.1947368421 282.2979224377 71.7
77 15.7947368421 378.9905540166 74.4
77.3 16.0947368421 445.739501385 77
77.8 16.5947368421 529.2847645429 77.3
78.4 17.1947368421 605.1642382271 77.8
80.4 19.1947368421 744.6547645429 78.4
82.6 21.3947368421 902.7452908587 80.4
85.2 23.9947368421 1098.8326592798 82.6
88.9 27.6947368421 1348.5879224377 85.2
13435.1687811634

6
 (Yt-7)-(Ybar) (Yt-Ybar)(Yt-6-Ybar) yt-8 (Yt-8)-(Ybar)

-29.9052631579 789.6563434903
-29.9052631579 792.6468698061 31.3 -29.9052631579
-29.9052631579 795.6373961219 31.3 -29.9052631579
-29.0052631579 751.3889750693 31.3 -29.9052631579
-29.1052631579 739.4268698061 32.2 -29.0052631579
-28.3052631579 687.9668698061 32.1 -29.1052631579
-27.8052631579 572.9347645429 32.9 -28.3052631579
-26.4052631579 361.8910803324 33.4 -27.8052631579
-26.5052631579 304.9500277008 34.8 -26.4052631579
-26.6052631579 268.8531855956 34.7 -26.5052631579
-25.9052631579 199.6068698061 34.6 -26.6052631579
-25.4052631579 134.7816066482 35.3 -25.9052631579
-24.3052631579 82.7658171745 35.8 -25.4052631579
-20.6052631579 -12.2547091413 36.9 -24.3052631579
-13.7052631579 -90.3826038781 40.6 -20.6052631579
-11.5052631579 -120.7447091413 47.5 -13.7052631579
-10.1052631579 -133.3362880886 49.7 -11.5052631579
-7.7052631579 -121.7026038781 51.1 -10.1052631579
-5.3052631579 -85.3868144044 53.5 -7.7052631579
-3.4052631579 -56.5094459834 55.9 -5.3052631579
0.5947368421 10.2263434903 57.8 -3.4052631579
6.5947368421 126.5842382271 61.8 0.5947368421
10.4947368421 224.532132964 67.8 6.5947368421
13.1947368421 316.6042382271 71.7 10.4947368421
15.7947368421 437.4310803324 74.4 13.1947368421
16.0947368421 513.3373961219 77 15.7947368421
16.5947368421 584.0473961219 77.3 16.0947368421
17.1947368421 667.0652908587 77.8 16.5947368421
19.1947368421 809.9168698061 78.4 17.1947368421
21.3947368421 979.7663434903 80.4 19.1947368421
23.9947368421 1168.4173961219 82.6 21.3947368421
11700.1182271468

7
(Yt-Ybar)(Yt-8-Ybar) yt-9 (Yt-9)-(Ybar) (Yt-Ybar)(Yt-9-Ybar)

792.6468698061
795.6373961219 31.3 -29.9052631579 795.6373961219
774.7037119114 31.3 -29.9052631579 774.7037119114
736.8863434903 31.3 -29.9052631579 759.7510803324
707.4110803324 32.2 -29.0052631579 704.9805540166
583.2373961219 32.1 -29.1052631579 599.7216066482
381.0784487535 32.9 -28.3052631579 387.9310803324
303.799501385 33.4 -27.8052631579 319.9068698061
267.8426592798 34.8 -26.4052631579 266.832132964
205.0005540166 34.7 -26.5052631579 204.2300277008
137.4342382271 34.6 -26.6052631579 141.1479224377
86.5116066482 35.3 -25.9052631579 88.2142382271
-14.4552354571 35.8 -25.4052631579 -15.1094459834
-135.8862880886 36.9 -24.3052631579 -160.2868144044
-143.8331301939 40.6 -20.6052631579 -216.2468144044
-151.8089196676 47.5 -13.7052631579 -180.8373407202
-159.6099722992 49.7 -11.5052631579 -181.7226038781
-124.0141828255 51.1 -10.1052631579 -162.6415512465
-88.0394459834 53.5 -7.7052631579 -127.8668144044
-58.5526038781 55.9 -5.3052631579 -91.2226038781
11.4158171745 57.8 -3.4052631579 -65.3631301939
141.0926592798 61.8 0.5947368421 12.7242382271
251.8184487535 67.8 6.5947368421 158.2389750693
365.4247645429 71.7 10.4947368421 290.6489750693
503.7689750693 74.4 13.1947368421 420.8426592798
566.4500277008 77 15.7947368421 555.8916066482
643.7884487535 77.3 16.0947368421 624.3910803324
725.5273961219 77.8 16.5947368421 700.2105540166
879.0179224377 78.4 17.1947368421 787.4284487535
1041.8110803324 80.4 19.1947368421 934.6826592798
10026.105567867 8326.818698061

8 9
yt-10 (Yt-10)-(Ybar) (Yt-Ybar)(Yt-10-Ybar) yt-11 (Yt-11)-(Ybar)

31.3 -29.9052631579 774.7037119114

31.3 -29.9052631579 759.7510803324 31.3 -29.9052631579
31.3 -29.9052631579 726.8552908587 31.3 -29.9052631579
32.2 -29.0052631579 597.6610803324 31.3 -29.9052631579
32.1 -29.1052631579 398.8952908587 32.2 -29.0052631579
32.9 -28.3052631579 325.659501385 32.1 -29.1052631579
33.4 -27.8052631579 280.979501385 32.9 -28.3052631579
34.8 -26.4052631579 203.459501385 33.4 -27.8052631579
34.7 -26.5052631579 140.6173961219 34.8 -26.4052631579
34.6 -26.6052631579 90.5979224377 34.7 -26.5052631579
35.3 -25.9052631579 -15.4068144044 34.6 -26.6052631579
35.8 -25.4052631579 -167.5410249307 35.3 -25.9052631579
36.9 -24.3052631579 -255.0773407202 35.8 -25.4052631579
40.6 -20.6052631579 -271.8810249307 36.9 -24.3052631579
47.5 -13.7052631579 -216.4710249307 40.6 -20.6052631579
49.7 -11.5052631579 -185.1741828255 47.5 -13.7052631579
51.1 -10.1052631579 -167.6941828255 49.7 -11.5052631579
53.5 -7.7052631579 -132.4899722992 51.1 -10.1052631579
55.9 -5.3052631579 -101.8331301939 53.5 -7.7052631579
57.8 -3.4052631579 -72.8547091413 55.9 -5.3052631579
61.8 0.5947368421 14.2705540166 57.8 -3.4052631579
67.8 6.5947368421 182.639501385 61.8 0.5947368421
71.7 10.4947368421 334.7268698061 67.8 6.5947368421
74.4 13.1947368421 464.3852908587 71.7 10.4947368421
77 15.7947368421 612.7526592798 74.4 13.1947368421
77.3 16.0947368421 679.1131855956 77 15.7947368421
77.8 16.5947368421 759.9516066482 77.3 16.0947368421
78.4 17.1947368421 837.2931855956 77.8 16.5947368421
6597.8897229917

10
(Yt-Ybar)(Yt-11-Ybar) yt-12 (Yt-12)-(Ybar) (Yt-Ybar)(Yt-12-Ybar)

759.7510803324
726.8552908587 31.3 -29.9052631579 726.8552908587
616.2058171745 31.3 -29.9052631579 616.2058171745
397.5247645429 31.3 -29.9052631579 409.859501385
334.8637119114 32.2 -29.0052631579 333.7131855956
286.032132964 32.1 -29.1052631579 294.1163434903
214.2468698061 32.9 -28.3052631579 218.099501385
140.0868698061 33.4 -27.8052631579 147.5142382271
90.2573961219 34.8 -26.4052631579 89.9168698061
-15.8231301939 34.7 -26.5052631579 -15.7636565097
-170.8383933518 34.6 -26.6052631579 -175.4547091413
-266.6215512465 35.3 -25.9052631579 -271.8689196676
-320.7015512465 35.8 -25.4052631579 -335.2157617729
-325.4547091413 36.9 -24.3052631579 -383.8952354571
-220.5826038781 40.6 -20.6052631579 -331.6362880886
-190.9268144044 47.5 -13.7052631579 -227.4352354571
-173.7573407202 49.7 -11.5052631579 -197.8299722992
-147.900498615 51.1 -10.1052631579 -193.967867036
-113.5047091413 53.5 -7.7052631579 -164.8520775623
-81.7083933518 55.9 -5.3052631579 -127.2983933518
16.4710803324 57.8 -3.4052631579 -94.307867036
210.3373961219 61.8 0.5947368421 18.9689750693
369.359501385 67.8 6.5947368421 232.1000277008
511.8863434903 71.7 10.4947368421 407.1405540166
666.4547645429 74.4 13.1947368421 556.7484487535
737.0542382271 77 15.7947368421 723.3158171745
808.0763434903 77.3 16.0947368421 783.7289750693
4857.6439058172 3038.7575623269

11 12
yt-13 (Yt-13)-(Ybar) (Yt-Ybar)(Yt-13-Ybar)

31.3 -29.905263158 616.2058171745

31.3 -29.905263158 409.859501385
31.3 -29.905263158 344.0679224377
32.2 -29.005263158 293.1058171745
32.1 -29.105263158 224.2637119114
32.9 -28.305263158 150.1668698061
33.4 -27.805263158 94.6842382271
34.8 -26.405263158 -15.7041828255
34.7 -26.505263158 -174.7952354571
34.6 -26.605263158 -279.2152354571
35.3 -25.905263158 -341.8131301939
35.8 -25.405263158 -401.2694459834
36.9 -24.305263158 -391.1868144044
40.6 -20.605263158 -341.9389196676
47.5 -13.705263158 -235.6583933518
49.7 -11.505263158 -220.840498615
51.1 -10.105263158 -216.1994459834
53.5 -7.7052631579 -184.8857617729
55.9 -5.3052631579 -146.927867036
57.8 -3.4052631579 -108.6099722992
61.8 0.5947368421 20.9316066482
67.8 6.5947368421 255.8410803324
71.7 10.4947368421 442.8226592798
74.4 13.1947368421 604.249501385
77 15.7947368421 769.1205540166
1166.2743767313

13
 Autocorrelations
Series:
Box-Ljung Statistic
Autocorrel
Lag ation Std. Errora Value df Sig.b
1 0.928 0.156 35.358 1 0.000
2 0.852 0.154 65.984 2 0.000
3 0.775 0.152 92.053 3 0.000
4 0.698 0.150 113.860 4 0.000
5 0.623 0.147 131.709 5 0.000
6 0.549 0.145 146.001 6 0.000
7 0.478 0.143 157.190 7 0.000
8 0.409 0.140 165.680 8 0.000
9 0.340 0.138 171.738 9 0.000
10 0.269 0.136 175.677 10 0.000
11 0.198 0.133 177.892 11 0.000
12 0.124 0.131 178.792 12 0.000
13 0.048 0.128 178.930 13 0.000
14 -0.028 0.126 178.981 14 0.000
15 -0.096 0.123 179.586 15 0.000
16 -0.160 0.120 181.354 16 0.000
a. The underlying process assumed is independence (white noise).
b. Based on the asymptotic chi-square approximation.
Method 1 : Simple Naïve Model
Yhat=Yt

YEAR t CPI(Y) Yhat e |e| e^2 |e| / y e/y

1960 1 31.3
1961 2 31.3 31.3 0 0 0 0 0
1962 3 31.3 31.3 0 0 0 0 0
1963 4 32.2 31.3 0.9 0.9 0.81 0.02795 0.02795
1964 5 32.1 32.2 -0.1 0.1 0.01 0.003115 -0.00312
1965 6 32.9 32.1 0.8 0.8 0.64 0.024316 0.024316
1966 7 33.4 32.9 0.5 0.5 0.25 0.01497 0.01497
1967 8 34.8 33.4 1.4 1.4 1.96 0.04023 0.04023
1968 9 34.7 34.8 -0.1 0.1 0.01 0.002882 -0.00288
1969 10 34.6 34.7 -0.1 0.1 0.01 0.00289 -0.00289
1970 11 35.3 34.6 0.7 0.7 0.49 0.01983 0.01983
1971 12 35.8 35.3 0.5 0.5 0.25 0.013966 0.013966
1972 13 36.9 35.8 1.1 1.1 1.21 0.02981 0.02981
1973 14 40.6 36.9 3.7 3.7 13.69 0.091133 0.091133
1974 15 47.5 40.6 6.9 6.9 47.61 0.145263 0.145263
1975 16 49.7 47.5 2.2 2.2 4.84 0.044266 0.044266
1976 17 51.1 49.7 1.4 1.4 1.96 0.027397 0.027397
1977 18 53.5 51.1 2.4 2.4 5.76 0.04486 0.04486
1978 19 55.9 53.5 2.4 2.4 5.76 0.042934 0.042934
1979 20 57.8 55.9 1.9 1.9 3.61 0.032872 0.032872
1980 21 61.8 57.8 4 4 16 0.064725 0.064725
1981 22 67.8 61.8 6 6 36 0.088496 0.088496
1982 23 71.7 67.8 3.9 3.9 15.21 0.054393 0.054393
1983 24 74.4 71.7 2.7 2.7 7.29 0.03629 0.03629
1984 25 77 74.4 2.6 2.6 6.76 0.033766 0.033766
1985 26 77.3 77 0.3 0.3 0.09 0.003881 0.003881
1986 27 77.8 77.3 0.5 0.5 0.25 0.006427 0.006427
1987 28 78.4 77.8 0.6 0.6 0.36 0.007653 0.007653
1988 29 80.4 78.4 2 2 4 0.024876 0.024876
1989 30 82.6 80.4 2.2 2.2 4.84 0.026634 0.026634
1990 31 85.2 82.6 2.6 2.6 6.76 0.030516 0.030516
1991 32 88.9 85.2 3.7 3.7 13.69 0.04162 0.04162
1992 33 93.1 88.9 4.2 4.2 17.64 0.045113 0.045113
1993 34 96.4 93.1 3.3 3.3 10.89 0.034232 0.034232
1994 35 100 96.4 3.6 3.6 12.96 0.036 0.036
1995 36 103.4 100 3.4 3.4 11.56 0.032882 0.032882
1996 37 107 103.4 3.6 3.6 12.96 0.033645 0.033645
1997 38 109.9 107 2.9 2.9 8.41 0.026388 0.026388
Total 78.6 79.2 274.54 1.236222 1.218448
 MAD 2.140541
MSE 7.42
RMSE 2.723968
MAPE 0.033411
MPE 0.032931

MAD MSE MAPE MPE

Method 1 2.140541 7.42 0.033411 0.032931
Method 2 0.997222 2.013611 0.019072 0.002298
Method 3 1.043756 2.379203 0.019901 0.000288

Based on the table, Naïve Trend Model is the best model or technique to use because it has the most of the lowest e
Method 2 : Naïve Trend Model
Yhat=Yt+(Yt-Yt-1)

YEAR t CPI(Y) Y(t-1) Yhat e |e| e^2

1960 1 31.3
1961 2 31.3 31.3
1962 3 31.3 31.3 31.3 0 0 0
1963 4 32.2 31.3 31.3 0.9 0.9 0.81
1964 5 32.1 32.2 33.1 -1 1 1
1965 6 32.9 32.1 32 0.9 0.9 0.81
1966 7 33.4 32.9 33.7 -0.3 0.3 0.09
1967 8 34.8 33.4 33.9 0.9 0.9 0.81
1968 9 34.7 34.8 36.2 -1.5 1.5 2.25
1969 10 34.6 34.7 34.6 0 0 0
1970 11 35.3 34.6 34.5 0.8 0.8 0.64
1971 12 35.8 35.3 36 -0.2 0.2 0.04
1972 13 36.9 35.8 36.3 0.6 0.6 0.36
1973 14 40.6 36.9 38 2.6 2.6 6.76
1974 15 47.5 40.6 44.3 3.2 3.2 10.24
1975 16 49.7 47.5 54.4 -4.7 4.7 22.09
1976 17 51.1 49.7 51.9 -0.8 0.8 0.64
1977 18 53.5 51.1 52.5 1 1 1
1978 19 55.9 53.5 55.9 0 0 0
1979 20 57.8 55.9 58.3 -0.5 0.5 0.25
1980 21 61.8 57.8 59.7 2.1 2.1 4.41
1981 22 67.8 61.8 65.8 2 2 4
1982 23 71.7 67.8 73.8 -2.1 2.1 4.41
1983 24 74.4 71.7 75.6 -1.2 1.2 1.44
1984 25 77 74.4 77.1 -0.1 0.1 0.01
1985 26 77.3 77 79.6 -2.3 2.3 5.29
1986 27 77.8 77.3 77.6 0.2 0.2 0.04
1987 28 78.4 77.8 78.3 0.1 0.1 0.01
1988 29 80.4 78.4 79 1.4 1.4 1.96
1989 30 82.6 80.4 82.4 0.2 0.2 0.04
1990 31 85.2 82.6 84.8 0.4 0.4 0.16
1991 32 88.9 85.2 87.8 1.1 1.1 1.21
1992 33 93.1 88.9 92.6 0.5 0.5 0.25
1993 34 96.4 93.1 97.3 -0.9 0.9 0.81
1994 35 100 96.4 99.7 0.3 0.3 0.09
1995 36 103.4 100 103.6 -0.2 0.2 0.04
1996 37 107 103.4 106.8 0.2 0.2 0.04
1997 38 109.9 107 110.6 -0.7 0.7 0.49
Total 2.9 35.9 72.49
 MAD 0.997222
MSE 2.013611
RMSE 1.419018
MAPE 0.019072
MPE 0.002298

se it has the most of the lowest error.

 Method 3 : Naïve Rate Of Change Model
Yhat=Yt(Yt/Yt-1)

|e|/Y e/Y YEAR t CPI(Y) Y(t-1) Yhat e

1960 1 31.3
1961 2 31.3 31.3
0 0 1962 3 31.3 31.3 31.3 0
0.02795 0.02795 1963 4 32.2 31.3 31.3 0.9
0.031153 -0.03115 1964 5 32.1 32.2 33.12588 -1.02588
0.027356 0.027356 1965 6 32.9 32.1 32.00031 0.899689
0.008982 -0.00898 1966 7 33.4 32.9 33.71994 -0.31994
0.025862 0.025862 1967 8 34.8 33.4 33.9076 0.892401
0.043228 -0.04323 1968 9 34.7 34.8 36.25868 -1.55868
0 0 1969 10 34.6 34.7 34.60029 -0.00029
0.022663 0.022663 1970 11 35.3 34.6 34.50029 0.799712
0.005587 -0.00559 1971 12 35.8 35.3 36.01416 -0.21416
0.01626 0.01626 1972 13 36.9 35.8 36.30708 0.592918
0.064039 0.064039 1973 14 40.6 36.9 38.0338 2.566201
0.067368 0.067368 1974 15 47.5 40.6 44.671 2.828997
0.094567 -0.09457 1975 16 49.7 47.5 55.57266 -5.87266
0.015656 -0.01566 1976 17 51.1 49.7 52.00189 -0.90189
0.018692 0.018692 1977 18 53.5 51.1 52.53944 0.960563
0 0 1978 19 55.9 53.5 56.01272 -0.11272
0.008651 -0.00865 1979 20 57.8 55.9 58.40766 -0.60766
0.033981 0.033981 1980 21 61.8 57.8 59.76458 2.03542
0.029499 0.029499 1981 22 67.8 61.8 66.07682 1.723183
0.029289 -0.02929 1982 23 71.7 67.8 74.38252 -2.68252
0.016129 -0.01613 1983 24 74.4 71.7 75.82434 -1.42434
0.001299 -0.0013 1984 25 77 74.4 77.20167 -0.20167
0.029754 -0.02975 1985 26 77.3 77 79.69086 -2.39086
0.002571 0.002571 1986 27 77.8 77.3 77.60117 0.198831
0.001276 0.001276 1987 28 78.4 77.8 78.30323 0.096766
0.017413 0.017413 1988 29 80.4 78.4 79.00463 1.395373
0.002421 0.002421 1989 30 82.6 80.4 82.45102 0.14898
0.004695 0.004695 1990 31 85.2 82.6 84.8602 0.339801
0.012373 0.012373 1991 32 88.9 85.2 87.88184 1.01816
0.005371 0.005371 1992 33 93.1 88.9 92.76068 0.339319
0.009336 -0.00934 1993 34 96.4 93.1 97.49843 -1.09843
0.003 0.003 1994 35 100 96.4 99.81697 0.183029
0.001934 -0.00193 1995 36 103.4 100 103.7344 -0.33444
0.001869 0.001869 1996 37 107 103.4 106.9156 0.0844
0.006369 -0.00637 1997 38 109.9 107 110.7253 -0.82534
0.686591 0.082725 Total -1.56774
MAD 1.043756
MSE 2.379203
RMSE 1.542467
MAPE 0.019901
MPE 0.000288
 |e| e^2 |e|/Y e/Y

0 0 0 0
0.9 0.81 0.02795 0.02795
1.025879 1.052427 0.031959 -0.03196
0.899689 0.809441 0.027346 0.027346
0.319938 0.10236 0.009579 -0.00958
0.892401 0.79638 0.025644 0.025644
1.558683 2.429492 0.044919 -0.04492
0.000287 8.26E-08 8.31E-06 -8.31E-06
0.799712 0.639539 0.022655 0.022655
0.214162 0.045865 0.005982 -0.00598
0.592918 0.351552 0.016068 0.016068
2.566201 6.585388 0.063207 0.063207
2.828997 8.003226 0.059558 0.059558
5.87266 34.48814 0.118162 -0.11816
0.901895 0.813414 0.01765 -0.01765
0.960563 0.922682 0.017954 0.017954
0.11272 0.012706 0.002016 -0.00202
0.607664 0.369255 0.010513 -0.01051
2.03542 4.142936 0.032936 0.032936
1.723183 2.969361 0.025416 0.025416
2.682524 7.195936 0.037413 -0.03741
1.424336 2.028734 0.019144 -0.01914
0.201674 0.040672 0.002619 -0.00262
2.39086 5.716213 0.03093 -0.03093
0.198831 0.039534 0.002556 0.002556
0.096766 0.009364 0.001234 0.001234
1.395373 1.947065 0.017355 0.017355
0.14898 0.022195 0.001804 0.001804
0.339801 0.115465 0.003988 0.003988
1.01816 1.036649 0.011453 0.011453
0.339319 0.115138 0.003645 0.003645
1.098425 1.206538 0.011394 -0.01139
0.183029 0.0335 0.00183 0.00183
0.33444 0.11185 0.003234 -0.00323
0.0844 0.007123 0.000789 0.000789
0.825338 0.681184 0.00751 -0.00751
37.57523 85.65132 0.716421 0.010354