About This Document

Requirements
This country-study assignment is an individually conducted analysis, requiring an answer
to: will the country be stable or unstable in the next 12 to 18 months? The information
and data acquired are from open sources. The five analytic methodologies used to
complete the project are Indicator Analysis, Link Analysis, Geospatial Analysis, Analysis
of Competing Hypotheses, and Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis. The given investment
by the United States Government of USD 100 million is tailored to increase stability
within the given country. After completing the analyses, the derived conclusion is that
Nigeria is an unstable country, but the investment would potentiality increase stability.
The given time frame to complete the analysis was three months.

Terms and Definitions

Stability: the sustainability and resiliency of the economy, government, military, health,
food security, water accessibility and cleanliness, and anti-corruption enforcement.

Instability: the presence, of some or all, of the following factors: corruption, human
rights violations, political unrest, famine, shifting cultural norms, recessions, terrorism,
provoked migration, and/or transnational issues.

Intelligence Collection Plan: a paper trail of open sources used to complete the analysis.

Indicator Analysis: forecasting methodology.

Link Analysis: methodology used to show the power dynamics in the country.

Geospatial Analysis: analyzing the geography, terrain, water, neighbors, resources, and
climate in order to identify ripple effects or top down effects.

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses: an unbiased methodology employed to compare

two hypotheses, and assign a calculus to each input of data. The first hypothesis is
“Nigeria is stable”, and the second hypothesis is “Nigeria is unstable”.

Multiple-Criteria Decision Matrix: methodology used to evaluate multiple, conflicting

sets of data.

Ripple Effect: a lateral change by an entity, effecting one level.

Top Down Effect: an entity affects different levels, creating a multi-lateral change.

Limitations
The limitations of the analytical assessment include, but are not limited to: the breadth
and depth of data and sources revolved around Nigeria, limitations to only being able to
access open sources, and the analyst who completed the assessment is an
undergraduate college student. The analyst needed to practice analytical objectivity
while conducting the assessment, while also only using sources that did not have bias.
Fake news increased in the past few years in Nigerian journalism. The time constraint
also posed as a limitation, due to other undergraduate courses being taken.

Analytical Confidence
There is a high level of confidence due to obtaining strong sources, making strong
inferences, observing a low probability of deception, and the moderate precision of the
analytical methodologies used.