Introduction As the nation enters the political year of 1980, an unmistakable mood of depres- sion and uncertainty lies across the land. Though the country continues £0 enjoy a broad-based prosperity and finds itself fighting no wars anyhere in the world, an foverubelming number of us have very litle confidence in our political system and the government it provides, But we eicounter a paradox. A majority of Americans doubt that government can do anything to solve the country’s big problems. At the Same time, however, that same majority believes that those problems, if they are 10 Selfeced ta con ot bs faced and clted witout goverment ation at accounts for our state of psyehic depression, uncertainty, and confusion? In the last ten or twelve years, ihe fundamental sense! we have had of ourselves has been jolted by a series of blows that were completely unanticipated. ‘There was frst a war we could aot win—the eXperience called Vietnam. Neher did. we win in Korea, bat With the last veteran of the Civil War long since dead, few Americans \Were prepared to. deal With & War that so spit our society and culture. ‘Second, the confidence we once had in future of our economy and our personal lives has been shaken by rates of inflation we have never before seen. This & some- thing that our present generation of leaders, raised dosing the deflationary times of the Depression and the controlled economy of World War Il, find hard to compre end, The flush times coupled with the real. growth of the early sities lead’ many eeticns fohelee that anemployment and eric, 6 non should eae ihr almost complete attention of our policymakers, ‘That has changed with ven nance: and we are left uncertain as 19 what the sift in concerns might mean for ‘Finally, there was the experience called Waterzate, wherein the legitimacy of our ‘was eed into doubt. The upshot Was that the American public twas Toreed to admit that, for once, i has failed to choose an honest and fair-minded Iman president The issue. of lepiimacy, however, may go back further than the Giimed of Richard Nixon, The assassination of President John Kennedy in 1963 and then of Senator Robert Kennedy in 1968 seems to have led many Americans to feel That they were being fed by men not of their own choosing that ihe course of his: tory scl had been deceived. In any ease, itis clearly evident that voter part Nonone index of satisfaction with the political system—reached a zenith in the Sours 1960 and 1962, and has fallen ever Since, Meanwhile, the confidence accorded Burinstional leadership in the ities and early sities has not reappeared. ‘Other advanced industrial democracies have trouble making sense of the back rood that afficts the work's great miliary and ecogomie power. That which we fay regard a3 unprecedented and profoundly unnerving, most Europeans and the Japanese have understood to be part of the natre of things. Within living memory, people of these societies have lived through massive inflation as well a deep depres Poe and they have seen themselves tery defeated militarily and occupied by forcign powers, Moreover, most Europeans, and the Japanese have endured political feadetship which many, if'not most, of the citizenry considered illegitimate. To them, matters lke Vietnam, Watergate, and inflaion are simply political and eco- homie problems that mast be faced, and if possible, overcome and solved. To us, ching, handwringing, and doubt. ‘Which brings us toa way of looking at the American people of the seventcs, ‘They have asked for a president to undo the damage done’ To. us by events of the Tecent post. To. an extent greater than is. perceived, much of the damage has in red, The country it no longer at war in Vietnam, and if Washington 450 ot et hat waned there, Soupty no Jonge deny. ded over be She Some expected recriminations against War protestors, But that has in no. way materialized. In fact, most poliielans today take for granted that we cannot inter~ ene militarily i third world conflicts.xii INTRODUCTION Watergate was slo resolved. Nixon was forced to quit and he_ was replaced by two men, Ford and Carter, who possess qualities Nixon so. conspicuously. lacked onesy'and an identification withthe ordinary person. Bul given our negative mood such viriues now don't seem Yo matter much. Ta fact, we have scen a resurgence of interest in aggressive and imperious presidential leadership, the Kind of leadership ‘Practiced by Jonson and Nixon which the public once fod so distasteful ‘elation, and inflation ay iti linked 10 the supply and cost of energy, remains a problem. And itis 2 problem for which there tno pat solttion. Thi’ Americans find hard to take. it Used to be that people who wanted to stop inflaton, went Repoblican and those who wanted to get out of a recession voted Democratic. But for most of the seventies inflation raged Under Republican almnistraions. Nean: while, the energy issue is not one that an be cab sorted ont by traditional New Deal categories, and acted upon by the voter. Instead, the policy of energy breaks der ini onfict‘etwexn repos, and ihe a Tests soluhon Beane the competing regions are so evenly matched Se" clestions are fought in an increasingly negative atmosphere. Voter turnout {ectncs. Job ratings of all public officals, not ust the preslen, tend 10 decline ‘Yet there is some evidence hat we may be reaching a turning points. kind of ‘evolution of lowered expectations. Even as we have, berated ‘President Ford. or President Carter for not being able to deliver What we have wanted, we have best {0 think that perhaps no ‘one can; even ss. we nostalacally ‘ong for the Kind of leadership provided by Tranklin Roosevell. FDR, however, wis president at a time ‘when our economy was in collapse and then when our nation ‘was united in support St Th county's ondtn ‘ws more dvpert tan Ht (ay ut as also easier then to persuade people to support a program, of anything that tight conceivably help. 1a ‘our times, when most people are comfortable and many hhave vested interests im the statis quo, itis much harder to produce change. ‘This negative attitude affects elections for every office, from the presidency 10 tng local county ounell but the impact of the aitude varies, “The presidency is of Course the focus of UF politics, As ths is writen in mid. 1979, i i risky to predict anything about the 1980 presidental race, yet some of the fundamentals already. seem cleat. Jimmy Carter approaches. 1580 as ‘Gerald Ford did’ 1976—a president with mild personal popularity anda low job Satine. Voters are not upset with his issue positions —he is probably closer to the average Yoter in major issues than any other public igute—but they believe he i inefective Garter appears ‘vlnerable to Edward Kennedy and_perbape f0 Jerry Brown tn the Democrat primaries, end he is by no mean certaln winner in + general election Incambency, in these sour times, may have become ability rather than an asst, ‘Yet there: may be certain advantages to Carers poston, The 1977 and 1978 gubernatorial elections showed that voters skepiclly Serutinize not only incumbents Sut also their challengers in clections for executive ofc. Thus fovernors WhO. were ‘ot especially popular were feclcied in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio, 4nd California: Moreover, itis by no means certain that Edward Kennedy will ron ‘Orthat i€ he does he ean! maintain the same Tevel of poptlaty he has 4s non Saodiate, Carter il vuerabis inthe Democratic primary wing: ot ta many Primary voters or party activists have strong positive feeling about him. He’ won {he nominato = kind of allerative candidate: ies liberal than Udall and the others in New Hampshire, les conservative than Wallace in Florida. While the might be defeated in the primaties and might even choose not (0 run, he cannot te counted out in 1980, “There is not much point in trying wo predict the Republican nomines. The out come ofthe general election will depend to some extent on the stale of the economy {nd the energy problem, but many of the old roles of the game no fonger hold up. Voters want limits to the size of government, but they didnot ive. Republicans the edna esgovrnment parang keh ovrwheling. Wty in sand at this wing the volers appear ready to give 2 major of their votes in 1960 to the leading advocate of new government. programs, Edward) Kennedy ‘The public show no sign of believing tha either parly oF any candidate can solve INTRODUCTION xiti the inflation or energy problems, and so presumably votes will be cast on other bases: traditional party identiieation, regional loyalties, cultural antipathy, minor issues. In every presidential election Year but one for the last 40 years, the incu bent president has_at least {ried to win reelection. ‘The outcome ss we approach 1980 Ses as uncertain ag ever tas Been © “eos ne ne of the bigaest political stories of ‘lection year centered on the de- feats, sometimes in upsets, of several. liberal Democratic senators: Hathaway of Maine. Mclatyre of New Hampshire, Clark of Iowa, Anderson of Minnesota, Has Kell of Colorado. To some extent this phenomenon, andthe generally more con servative mood of the newly elected senators, reflecied the concern over the size and cost of government—a matter that also Fecelved expression in the California, JOS approval of Proposition 15 and the Republicans’ endorsement of the Kemp Roth plan to cut federal income taxes. All of this nicely reflects the general negative mood" of volefs; who at once. want to dismantle our makeshift: welfare stale. We hhave in’ America, but who fear that it has become {oo expensive and gotten out Of control. Another factor in the Democras’ defeat were so-called single tues, most Prominent of them abortion, Groups concerned about ‘such iues were able 10 Sreanize opposition 10 incumbents beted on theit stands on them, and to persuade ‘Significant segments of the electorate—like the normally heavily Bemocratie Catho- is of Towa-to vote against an incumbent on the. basis of that single leave. Th some eases, the Republicans elected Jepsen in Towa, Humphrey in New Hampahire— are not among their party's most attractive candidates, and one wonders if they ‘would have won had attention and media serutiny had been focused on them from the beginning “There has been much hand-wringing over the phenomenon of single issue voting, bot its real significance i that it shows how incumbent senators (or well Knows Senate candidates) have become the point’ men of American politcs. Executive coficals—governors, perhaps even prestdents—vare reelected if volers conclude the llternative would be ‘worse. ‘Theer Js no Way in such elections to vent one’ f tions and anger with What is. House elections are usually contests between fami on-controversial incumbents and unknown challengers; there’ is litle room ere Either for expression of negative atituder, But in Senate races all the major cand ‘ates are fairly well known, with their issue postions evident Yo. most Voters. A challenger can comb an incumbent's hundreds of roll call votes and find some may be obnoxious to a Key group of voters. The Senate races are one opportunity {for voters in these negative times to vote against somebody, and so it should be 00 surprise that in 1976 and 1978 most of the tenators who had serious challenges los. For 1980, this may mean great trouble for the Democrats, who hold 24 of the 34 seats that are,up in November. It seems almost certain that the Democrats will lose 4 few seals. Many of their incumbents have some vulnerability, while only & few fof the 10 Republican seats provide good Democratic targets. The trend in the Senate in the Tate seventies has been decidedly’ to the right. Democrats in tater like Colorado and lows have been replaced in effect, hy much more conservative Demo ‘rats from states like. Nebraska’ and ‘Oklahoma. ‘Republicans have had. particular Suecess in the Rocky Mountain states, which are now represented by more than half adozen young, dedicated, and very conservative Republicans. ‘The upshot js that the Senate, for much of the sixties and early seventies, the liberal bastion of the federal government, now W distinlly more conservative than the Hoyse on man issues. ‘Meanwhile, the House remains substantially the same body that was elected in 1974, ‘when ihe reaction to Watergate helped deliver 40-odd 10 young, ambitious Democrats who. grew to politeal maturiy"in the years of Vietnam and. Richard Nixon. ‘Most of ‘these Democrats ‘have survived. poiltically. Although the maior issues that developed in the 1978, congressional. elections--contcolling. the sizeof government, culling taxes-—seemed initially to. favor the Republicans, Democrats were adept enough to turn the ksves to their advantage, Few of the 1974 freshman Democrats have been defeated, and: Democrats lost no more than It seats in ISTE: since 1974, the Democratic House majority has slipped from 290 to 276 seats, noi 2 major ossxiv INTRODUCTION Nonetheless, the atmosphere and rend of thinking ate very much diferent in the House than one might have anticipated live years ago. Thi class of "74 Demo ras, alongwith ike minded’ Democrats lected inthe. years since. remain 3m important part of the Howe, were and are hiberal on ‘omeonomeiaues like Vistnam and Wateraate--but they" do not automatically plune for the Wadiional Democrat lie on economie tsues, Lovosins for orginaed labor, ih pareula, have‘learned as much to their sorrow. Organized labor began the’ 1977 lobbying Yea" by pushing the common situs picketing Billa measure thet woul! most benefit the building trades: Tt had passed before in'1976, but wat beaten ina stonning spect tarly in the Carter “Admiistation. Labor lobbyists have. ner realy Tesovere. Gnce One of the most powerful lobbies in the House, i saw most of is rion legislation defeated inthe 9sth Congress. On other measures av wel, the younger Democrats were not reliable ali of wadtional Democrat eral To a surprising extet, the Inve inthe Howe has been eld by the Repub- ‘ican, badly outnumbered but ually cobeaive and fed by 3 group of youreer fugresive, parisn, and solidly conservative members. Unite the younger Demo: Stal. the) have a definite economic prostamiower government spending. greater Sncentves for private enterpte an ehd fo government contros and muck overt tment regulation, Thst program, they believes will solve most of he tations rob. lems. The Republicans have the luxury all shinorites enjoy of being able to atack the party in power from many angies without being resporsible forthe policy Stpted inthe end, and they have shown the abllly gs wel to mlraetchough Democratic voies-sirom many quarters, not jest. 10 the South=to prevail on many Eten ifthe’ Democrats should loses eobwantial number of sea in. 1980 that ‘is more than they have lost since 1974~Republicans wil have dhe potential to take Siete Coit of ihe Hose" And aut the 3 cangreona dit Soundings indeate that mont of the young, ambit, wellinanced candidates who 4a seeking to beat Incumbents selze open Gti, arene 1974 and. 1976— Republicans. "Phe palltcal perspective for 1980 would not be complete without a Jook at the increasingly dvergent poll atdtudes found In the varlous regions of the county. Eccions for governor and oiher state offees—though there are- not thot man ovetmorshipn Up in 1980--are amply no, comprehensible witout a retinal perspec- {er"The nation is spit slong reslonal fines on one of the two major sues before ite“enetgyr and (9 am increasing extent itis also similarly spit"on the sue of Bivernment spending and taxes" We are long way from the Americ of the sinties Sten there was life diference between California and New Jersey ‘Democras or between low and. ‘Tennessee ‘Republicans. We are. moving toward. what Kevin Philip calls the Balkantaation of America.” . "The Eat was once the richest part of the nation, the home ofits major economic inttdons and private cai ncreasnly Jn the seventies te Fant as come 10 dee tani aan” economically aggrieved reglon, dependent support ro ‘ert government: ‘The East prouces ite eserey. but with is ai, conditioned fice buildings and cold winter it consimes arent deal. Eneray costs bere a the highest im the- ation, and virtually every poliiclan from the region supports Conttols over the pice ot oil and gas State tes are higher here ‘than anywhere ‘ke. andYet thes sles, With slngash economic growth or exch. population tosses, fre ypaly enh gy Soi osu tat the Beak srl ip pore federal all Grograms. The region alo pionevred major government sets: ow with fs high wage stracture diving Tow Skil abs coewhere, fe find it hard To Pay for them The East is not monoliiclly Democrats tn grsidenal lection, rough Democrats usally win most of ts electoral votes Apanst a candidate Who Bs pereehed, ag Barry Goldwater was in. 1968, a3 a dismantle! of federal spending programs, the East will probably be solidly. if unenthusasicaly, Democrat “the "West often seems like another country. Here population ‘and. economic sow has been, most raid in the seventien. The Rocky Mountain sates and. of course Alaska are energy exporters, and although environmental ies are important INTRODUCTION xy het, these states are, forthe most part, boosters of rapid growth and fice enterrse. Tie ats have bosom the mont Republican secton of the emmy. snd Seem fatticularly”anipathetc timmy. Cater Meanwhile, California, Oregon, ad Washington, painted a diferent prtore. On cultural sues_-Vietnam Watergate, ‘mariana ihe environment, homosexuality hey are probably the most Hera i the’ county, Traditional tes ‘ofall sorts are weak “Rere; people are aflucat and want to be free to indulge a favorite ife syle. But thelr allucnce has also moved Ilr polis very'mach to the ighton economie fines. Calforia gave the Paton Proposition 13, 4 successfol efor to Use the mestaxe approach on state and focal fovernment by culing property anes. Opponents of Propoution 13, insioding Jery Brown, chareed that if would bring chaos passed backer. of Proposition 13, including Jerry Brown after the voters spoke, sid that there was plenty of fat i fovernment and plenty of the surplus reuag from Californias wary prodoctve privat economy "Ail of the West except Hawait went for, Gerald Ford in'1916, Bur the ‘WestCoast states--which have most of the region’ electoral votes—eave Ford’ only narrow margins, and will ikl) be Seriously contested in 1980. "The South hay developed a poles that is distinctively te own, One based Not on race anit was fors0 many years, baton economies, Jimmy Carer nally banished the tace isue from the South by beating George, Wallace tn the 1976 peumaries ‘by forging a coalition of poor and working class Whites and blacks "0 carry Ath of the reson exsapt Virgin Im the eeneral lection, ‘he ress in many sax tere. close, howevr, reflecting the largesse of the ailuent white, vote, which Crerwhelmingly conservative and usually Republican, And ig 1978,."when the after had more satay won are nguble tre, The South sey ‘Toxay unlike the Esato the Went Const has Vietally po radial chic elites, 00r dows i have very many Archie Bunkers 1a police where the people who belone {o the country chub vote again the people who work in the textile il, with the Wack Sting prety "mck soy wh eandtes they consider most ympatbete torthem, “The South fs further split these days by the energy issue. The big oikproducing states, Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and’ Misisippy, strongly oppose. povernment price ‘controls and regulations over what most voters here seem to. regard a thelr {dusty Soi sexs hardly likly that any ofthese states will vote for a backer of Contre, enher in the primaries or the goneral election. But east of te energy States, sitting’ with Arkansas, Tennessee, and. Alabama, ihrough to the. Carolinas, the balance fe diferent, There are sates where blue collar worker teod 10 oot. ‘umber aflent voters” Like the energy state, they have teen Substantial popustion Ind economiegrowth in the late ites and eventes AU the same time, they Rave fot Seon ihe outmigration ofthe youns. which wan fypeal of caer decades, and their take home pay, after basic Gxpensen and taxes, now competitive with the East, Bur there is'no identifeation here withthe needs of the of industy, and 50 3 pute Nase on cepnomice leaves these alates very competiive in 1980. "That faves the ‘Aides, which, tis fringes) rexmhiee sorronnding resioas. CCeveland and Jobdoxing lie ike Youngstown and Dayton in Ohio have many St'the same problems "and the same attiades foward. government programs —at fnuch of the ase Out in North Dakota, one finds the same kind of stip coat mining ss ng ges n. Mostanarasing’ tre same Lind of sues. Below 4 tne Formed by US $0. the old National Roed, stretching from Wheeling, West. Virginia, {hrough Columbus, Indinapoliy St. Louis and Kansas City, people speak with & Shuilern accent aid often pence wotng patterns to. match, ‘Southern Ohio and tural Missour gave Jimmy Carter the sleioral votes of those crucal states in {33e—the only Midwestern votes he won ase from Walter Mondale’ Minnesota dnd neighboring Wisconsin, In general, the, Teaion has become the Datleground of lowe presidents elections: Keanedy carted crucial states here in. 1960, Humphrey fancafo do 20 n 1968 and Carter was successful in Just enough ia 1976, For 1980 the Midnest may also be the Keys Regional trends seem to give Democrats an edge inne East and Republicans the advantage in the West the South despite 1 seem