CLIMATE CHANGE AS A NEW SECURITY THREAT FOR AFRICA

Introduction

The earth's climate is always undergoing a natural cycle of constant changes. However,
from the beginning of the past decade, a new global phenomenon – global warming - has
emerged posing a more severe threat to the world’s climate. Lately, Africa is also
experiencing her part of the global phenomenon which has put the already fragile
continent of Africa more at risk and made her inhabitants more vulnerable. This coupled
with the incessant conflicts is threatening to destabilize and jeopardize national and
international security on the continent. Climate change is only just beginning, but its
impacts are steadily intensifying. The most worrying aspect is that the changes that are
occurring today are seriously influenced by human activities. Climate change is a long-
term alteration in global weather patterns. It is especially characterized by increases in
temperature and storm activities. Climate change has not only become a global security
issue but has also become an environmental, developmental and security challenge facing
Africa.

The issue of the security implications of climate change is currently assuming a political
dimension generating a noticeable shift in the way a growing number of decision-makers
view and address the issue. It is becoming increasingly clear that the ongoing climate
change threatens to worsen existing conflict in a way that could roll back development
across many countries. An example is the Darfur region of Sudan where the climate
change has caused severe draught and environmental degradation according to a June
2007 report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).1 The nomads have
taken to the cutting down of forages to feed their animals due to lack of rainfall and this
has resulted in tension between farmers of the South and nomadic herdsmen of the Arab
North over disappearing pasture and dwindling water-holes.

1
United Nations Environment Programme, Sudan: post-conflict environmental assessment (Nairobi:
UNEP, 2007). Quoted by OLI BROWN, ANNE HAMMILL AND ROBERT MCLEMAN in their Article
‘Climate change as the ‘new’ security threat: implications for Africa’.

1
The political, social and economic effects of the climate change and its security
implications have been the subject of consideration by African governments and their
developmental partners, for over two decades now. In particular, the security concerns
expressed over the years on this issue is what this paper seeks to discuss. In doing so, the
paper will examine the causes of climate change, its effects on the political and socio-
economic development of Africa, the security implications for Africa, and then suggest
some solutions that will help mitigate the security implication of the phenomenon.

Causes of Climate Change

The causes of climate change can be classified into natural and human induced causes.
The general state of the Earth's climate is largely affected by how much heat is stored in
the atmosphere. Processes which affect this storage of heat can cause the climate of the
Earth to change. It is not just man-made pollution of the atmosphere which can cause
climate change. Changes in the amount of greenhouse gases in the air have occurred
naturally during the history of the Earth, leading to climate changes. Changes in the way
ocean water circulates around the world can also influence climate, because the oceans
store even more heat than the atmosphere. Changes in the amount of heat from the Sun
will affect the Earth's climate too.

Large volcanic eruptions can cause the Earth to cool over a couple of years, because huge
amounts of pollution injected in to the air block out a lot more sunlight. This type of
climate change can also occur when a large comet or meteorite strikes the Earth. Luckily,
this only happens once in as many million years.

Other processes can change the Earth's climate, but only very slowly, over millions of
years. When continents move around the world, and when mountains ranges are built, the
changing patterns of landmasses affects the way the heat in the atmosphere and in the
oceans is stored. Continental drift however, takes millions of years, and so therefore does
any climate change caused by it.2

2
http://www.ace.mmu.ac.uk/eae/climate_change/Younger/Causes.html

2
On the human induced side, all of us in our daily lives contribute our bit to climate
change. For example: Cars, buses, trucks aircraft, ships and trains are the principal ways
by which goods and people are transported around the world. These are run mainly on
petrol or diesel or some derivatives of these fuels which are fossil based. Electricity is the
main source of power in urban areas. Many countries still depend on electricity generated
mainly from thermal power plants. These thermal power plants are run on fossil fuels and
are responsible for the emission of huge amounts of greenhouse gases and other
pollutants into the atmosphere.

We use huge quantities of paper which are direct products from trees in our offices and
schools. Timber is also used in large quantities for construction and furniture, which
means that large areas of forest have to be cut down. Humans also generate large
quantities of waste in the form of plastics that remain in the environment for many years
and cause damage.

A growing population means more mouths to feed. Because the land area available for
agriculture is limited and ecological degradation is also taking its toll on the land, high-
yielding varieties of crop are being grown to increase the agricultural output from a given
area of land. However, such high-yielding varieties of crops require large quantities of
fertilizers; and more fertilizer means more emissions of nitrous oxide into the fields.
Pollution also results from the run-off of fertilizer into water bodies.3

Socio-Economic Effects of Climate Change

In terms of the socio-economic effects of climate change, the future is becoming

progressively obvious. People and nations will be threatened by massive food and water
shortages, devastating natural disasters, and deadly disease outbreaks. Socioeconomic
effects often occur much more rapidly than the environmental changes that cause them
and therefore are difficult to predict. Although the socioeconomic effects of the one-
meter rise in sea level in the past century are fairly apparent, the effects of other
manifestations of global climate change are more difficult to measure.

3
http://edugreen.teri.res.in/explore/climate/causes.htm

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The global consequences of climate change are the potential impacts to crop yields,
production, and risk of hunger which affect the socio-economic structure of countries. In
a United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) document, a global-scale assessment
is made of the impacts of climate change on food security, water stresses, coastal flood
risk and wetland loss, exposure to malaria risk. It is emphasized that one effect of climate
change could be extensive damage to fish and prawn breeding grounds around the world.
Other effects include changes both in the prices of agricultural commodities as a result of
changes in domestic agricultural yields, and changes in economic welfare following
altered world patterns of consumption and production of agricultural commodities.4 It is
projected that yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 percent in
some regions by 2020 and agricultural production, including access to food, may be
severely compromised.5

The extent of socio-economic effects of climate change on societies will vary from
country to country. This will be influenced by the ability of different societal and
environmental systems to mitigate or adapt to change. Climate change will impact
agriculture and food production around the world due to the effects of elevated carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere, higher temperatures, altered precipitation and transpiration
regimes, increased frequency of extreme events, and modified weed, pest, and pathogen
pressure.

Higher temperatures and heat waves increase demand for electricity and thus combustion
of fossil fuels, generating airborne particulates and indirectly leading to increased
respiratory disease. Heat exposure has a range of health effects, from mild heat rashes
and direct lung injury to chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and deadly heat stroke.
Heat exposure can also aggravate several chronic diseases, including cardiovascular and
respiratory disease or even cause death.6 There is currently no foreseeable political or
4
"The Potential Socio-economic Effects of Climate Change,"
5
IPCC 2007, Summary for Policymakers, in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 17.
6
Frumkin H, Hess J, Luber G, Malilay J, and McGeehin M. Climate change: the public health response.
American Journal of Public Health. 98:435-445, 2008.

4
technological solution to enable us prevent many of these climatic impacts; and
technological breakthroughs that would lead to a decisive, near-term reduction in the
concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere remains far away.

Security Implications of Climate Change for Africa

One of the impacts of climate change on security is climate-induced migration. Migration

will widen the wealth gap between the developed and developing world and also among
societal classes within many developing countries. It will deprive developing countries of
very much needed manpower and intellectual capital. This could spark conflicts since
there will be heightening competition over scarce resources and upsetting of the cultural
or ethnic order within a country or region.7 The climate-induced migration will present
the greatest geopolitical challenges in Africa, in the form of loss of needed economic,
human resources and wars over the limited resources. Its effects on Nigeria and East
Africa pose particularly acute geopolitical challenges. This migration will be both
internal and international. The first domestic wave will likely be from agricultural regions
to urban centers where more social services are available, and the risk of state failure will
increase as central governments lose control over stretches of their territory and their
borders.

Nigeria, for instance, will suffer from climate-induced drought, desertification, and sea-
level rise. Already, approximately 1,350 square miles of Nigerian land turns to desert
each year, forcing both farmers and herdsmen to abandon their homes. 8 Lagos, the
capital, is one of the West African coastal mega cities that the IPCC identifies as at risk
from sea-level rise by 2015.9 This, coupled with high population growth, will force
significant migration and contribute to political and economic turmoil. For example, it
7
Podesta, John and Ogden Peter, (2007), “The Security Implications of Climate Change”. The Washington
Quarterly 31:1. Winter 2007-08, p 117.

8
Michael McCarthy, ‘Climate Change Will Cause Refugee Crisis’ Independent, October
20, 2006, http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/1020-05.htm. (Last Accessed 20 March 2010).
9
Michel Boko et al., ‘Fourth Assessment Report: Africa, in Climate Change 2007:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’, eds. Martin Parry et al. (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2007), p. 450. http://www.gtp89.dial.pipex.com/09.pdf. (Last Accessed 21 March, 2010).

5
will exacerbate the existing internal conflict over oil production in the Niger Delta. To
date, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta has carried out a successful
campaign of armed attacks, sabotage, and kidnappings that has forced a shutdown of 25
percent of the country’s oil output.10 Given that Nigeria is the world’s eighth-largest and
Africa’s single-largest oil exporter, this instability is having an impact on the price of oil,
and it will have global strategic implications in the coming decades.

The threat of regional conflagration, however, is highest in East Africa because of the
concentration of weak or failing states, the numerous unresolved political disputes, and
the severe impacts of climate change. According to Michael Case, climate change will
likely create large fluctuations in the amount of rainfall in East Africa during the next 30
years; a 5–20 percent increase in rainfall during the winter months will cause flooding
and soil erosion, while a 5–10 percent decrease in the summer months will cause severe
droughts.11 This will jeopardize the livelihoods of millions of people and the economic
capacity of the region, as agriculture constitutes some 40 percent of East Africa’s gross
domestic product (GDP) and 80 percent of the population earns a living from
agriculture.12

In Darfur, for instance, water shortages have already led to the desertification of large
tracts of farmland and grassland. The fierce competition that emerged between farmers
and herdsmen over the remaining arable land combined with simmering ethnic and
religious tensions to help ignite the first genocide of the twenty-first century. 13 This
conflict has now spilled into Chad and the Central African Republic. Meanwhile, the

10
Jad Mouawad, ‘Growing Unrest Posing a Threat to Nigerian Oil’, New York Times,
April 21, 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/21/business/worldbusiness. (Last Accessed 21 March,
2010).
11
Michael Case, ‘Climate Change Impacts on East Africa’, November 2006, p. 4.
http://www.assets.panda.org/downloads/east_africa_climate_change_impacts_final.pdf. (Last Accessed 21
March, 2010).
12
Ibid.
13
Military Advisory Board, CNA Corporation, ‘National Security and the Threat of Climate Change’,
2007, p.15. http://www.securityandclimate.cna.org. (Last Accessed 21 March, 2010).

6
entire Horn of Africa continues to be threatened by a failed Somalia and other weak
states. Al Qaeda cells are active in the region, and there is a danger that this area could
become a central breeding ground and safe haven for jihadists as climate change pushes
more states toward the brink of collapse.

Mitigating the Security Implications

Adaptation is a broad concept informed by both the natural and the social sciences,
usually implying a process of adjustment to survive and, ideally, thrive in the face of
change. In the context of climate change, adaptation takes place through adjustments to
reduce vulnerability or enhance resilience to observed or expected changes in climate,
and involves changes in processes, perceptions, practices and functions. Adaptation may
be initiated on a variety of scales, from institutionally driven policies and programmes at
national or sub-national levels to adjustments and risk management decisions within
individual households. 14

Africa is often cited as the continent most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate
change and therefore a priority for adaptation funding and projects. Among the reasons
for this special vulnerability are heavy dependence on climate-sensitive economic
sectors, environmental change and degradation (e.g. desertification, coral bleaching,
invasive species) and continued expansion of (often marginal) human settlements in
hazard-prone areas, such as low-lying coasts.15

In spite of this vulnerability, African populations have demonstrated for centuries a

tremendous ability to adapt to climate variability, often employing sophisticated and
continually evolving processes and practices to respond to risks and take advantage of
new opportunities. This adaptive capacity differs considerably across regions, countries
and communities, and can take such diverse forms as strategic migration decisions,16
shrewd management and conflict resolution strategies for water resources, rapidly

14
Boko et al., ‘Africa. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability’, pp. 433– 467.
15
Ibid.
16
K. Hampshire and S. Randall, ‘Seasonal labour migration strategies in the Sahel: coping with poverty or
optimising security?’, International Journal of Population Geography 5, 1999, pp. 367–85.

7
changing agrarian and pastoral practices,17 and complex socio-economic linkages
between rural and urban areas. The present concern, however, is that the adaptive
capacity of African populations may not be sufficiently robust to respond to a rapid
exacerbation of historical climatic variability caused by climate change.

African governments and communities will need to manage these shifts to ensure that
competition for resources does not break out into violent conflict over resources. They
will also need to put in place the skills and infrastructure that will be needed to cope with
increasingly frequent natural disasters and new health problems. This is where the
international community can play a role, in helping to provide the means and the
technology to anticipate and respond to these challenges.

It is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential

damages under climate change.

Conclusion

Arthur Lee, Chevron’s Principal Advisor, Climate Change

Chevron is very interested in the climate change issue because it is an important issue that has to do with
the kind of energy and the fuels that we produce that the world needs.
Ron Prinn, MIT Professor
Climate change is undoubtedly the greatest environmental threat that humanity has to face in the next 100
years. Chevron has been an early and strong supporter of the program that we’ve developed at MIT that
integrates the science, the economics, the technology and the policy of this issue in ways that we hope will
be exceedingly important in providing advice to policy makers going into the future.
Arthur Lee

The biggest challenge about climate change is that there is no one single answer, no one single solution.
We really need to develop a whole host of technologies and also continue to improve our energy efficiency –
continue to do that – but at the same time, develop new technologies. Now one of the new technologies that
we’ve been looking to develop and deploy is CO2 capture and storage. Carbon capture storage is all about
capturing the carbon dioxide, or CO2, that comes from power generation or from our industry, from refineries
for example, and also from natural gas production. First the CO 2 is separated, and the captured CO2 is
compressed to a density that is very similar to a light liquid. Now after compression, the CO 2 is injected into
suitable reservoirs beneath the earth. So what this means is that safely storing CO2 underground will help
reduce greenhouse gas emissions that come from energy production. Climate change is a very important

17
E. L. Crowley and S. E. Carter, ‘Agrarian change and the changing relationships between toil and soil in
Maragoli, western Kenya (1900–1994)’, Human Ecology 28, 2000, pp. 383–414.

8
issue. It is also a very complicated one. There are so many aspects to it that are challenging to me, and I
wouldn’t be doing this job if it weren’t challenging.

We are working to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while expanding our energy supply
portfolio to meet the world’s energy needs. Chevron climate change advisor Arthur Lee is an expert in
carbon capture and storage. He has participated in industry workshops and the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage.

The projected impacts of climate change for Africa do indeed hold the potential to cause
food and water supplies to become more unreliable, and to increase the frequency and
severity of droughts, storms and flooding in low-lying coastal areas. In turn, livelihoods
may be undermined, key resources may become scarcer, and an overall decline in the
quality of life may result. However, we should be extremely cautious before assuming a
straight-line progression from scarcity to conflict will ensue across Africa. This is
because whether or not climate change contributes to tipping parts of Africa into
conditions of violence and conflict will be heavily influenced not only by the nature of
the biophysical impacts of climate change, but also by a given area’s susceptibility to
conflict and the capacity of the population to adapt to changing conditions.

Ultimately, the extent to which climate change triggers a succession of new wars in
Africa, as the 2007 UNEP report glumly predicted,18 depends more on governance and
governments than on the strength of the climate ‘signal’ itself. This being so, using
projections of climate change in isolation from other factors is probably a poor way to
predict future conflict. Meanwhile, the way in which the climate change debate is
becoming a debate about security (and in so doing displacing focus on its developmental
or environmental consequences) presents both risks and opportunities.

Major EW Tandoh

18
United Nations Environment Programme, ‘Environmental degradation triggering tensions and conflict in

Sudan’, 2007, http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default. (Last Accessed 25 March 2010).

9
Student

Istherea newqualityof securityriskunderfutureclimaticconditions?

Are there new areas where climate-induced conflicts might arise in the future?
Glacialretreat
Projected extreme conditions

10
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11
9. Michel Boko et al., ‘Fourth Assessment Report: Africa, in Climate Change 2007:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’, eds. Martin Parry et al. (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2007), p. 450. http://www.gtp89.dial.pipex.com/09.pdf. (Last Accessed
21 March, 2010).
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Times, April 21, 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/21/business/worldbusiness.
(Last Accessed 21 March, 2010).
11. Michael Case, ‘Climate Change Impacts on East Africa’, November 2006, p. 4.
http://www.assets.panda.org/downloads/east_africa_climate_change_impacts_final.pdf.
(Last Accessed 21 March, 2010).
13. Military Advisory Board, CNA Corporation, ‘National Security and the Threat of
Climate Change’, 2007, p.15. http://www.securityandclimate.cna.org. (Last Accessed 21
March, 2010).
14. Boko et al., ‘Africa. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability’,
pp. 433– 467.
16. K. Hampshire and S. Randall, ‘Seasonal labour migration strategies in the Sahel:
coping with poverty or optimising security?’ International Journal of Population
Geography 5, 1999, pp. 367–85.
17. E. L. Crowley and S. E. Carter, ‘Agrarian change and the changing relationships
between toil and soil in Maragoli, western Kenya (1900–1994)’, Human Ecology 28,
2000, pp. 383–414.
18. United Nations Environment Programme, ‘Environmental degradation triggering
tensions and conflict in Sudan’, 2007,
http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default. (Last Accessed 25 March 2010).
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