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Executive Summary
Throughout history, the usage of different substances has marked each generation. For
those living in the 1960’s, the use of LSD became more prominent. For those living in the
1980’s, the use of cocaine and marijuana became more prominent. Now, in the year 2019, a new
drug has reached millennials and Generation Z, vaping. Vaping has earned itself the term
“juuling” due to the big company, JUUL, that sells popular vaping devices. While vaping
becomes more and more prevalent amongst young people (from middle-schoolers to people in
their mid-twenties), there are still many other drugs that cannot be neglected.
We addressed the vaping and nicotine subject by using the data looking at age, use of
cigarettes, use of vaping, and the amount of money going into each industry each year. In
creating variables for the industry and amount of money going into it, we were able to create a
reasonable assumption relating the industry revenue to the amount of users per a year. We used
this using variables C​p​, C​r​, V​p​, V​r​, in order to separate revenue and population for both cigarette
usage and vape usage. In doing this it was found with the R​2​ value an accurate estimate of
revenue and usage for the next 10 years, as the R​2 ​value (linear) was very strong for each model.
While we could just look at vaping and nicotine usage based off of solely age for the
demographic, it is far more accurate to look at multiple aspects of someone’s life to factor how
likely they are to engage in the use of a certain substance. With that we decided that the models
should take into account:
● Age
● Race
● Gender
● Income (class, lower, middle or higher)
● Type of drug (nicotine, alcohol, unprescribed opioids)
● State (geography)
In this report we looked at solely the population and at who is using a certain substance.
Throughout the report we defined the word “using” as “someone who has used a certain
substance in the past 30 days.” This helps make the data more accurate in that it no longer factors
in those who have tried it once, as that would make the sample size far larger than what would
there would be for each demographic,
For the third section of the report we developed multiple models that took into account
each demographic separately so as to make it more robust. Throughout this section we made
sure to use data that would affect each demographic separately and with that it was much easier
to use a bar graph, making it simpler to analyze the data and apply it to each section that was
analyzed.
Because the ultimate goal of the report was to analyze different substances affect
different demographics and some are more likely to use than others, we found that it was vital to
look at as many different aspect of the demographics as possible.
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary 1

I Darth Vapor 3
I.1 Restatement of Challenge 3
I.2 Approach to Challenge 3
I.3 Variables
3
I.4 Assumptions 4
I.5 Problem Solutions and Results 6
I.6 Strengths and Weaknesses 7

II Above or Under the Influence 8

II.1 Restatements of the Challenge 8
II.2 Approach to Challenge 8
II.3 Variables 8
II.4 Assumptions 9
II.5 Problem Solutions and Results 10
II.6 Strengths and Weaknesses 10

III Ripples 11
III.1 Restatement of Challenge 11
III.2 Approach to Challenge 11
III.3 Assumptions 11
III.4 Problem Solutions and Results 11
III.5 Strengths and Weaknesses 12
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Section Ⅰ: Darth Vapor

Ⅰ.Ⅰ: ​Restatement of the Challenge
We were asked to generate a mathematical model that gives an accurate and realistic prediction
of the spread of nicotine over the next 10 years and how the use of nicotine compares to that of
cigarettes.

Ⅰ.2: ​Approach to Challenge

A good prediction of how nicotine will influence the population in the next 10 years is by
creating a regression line for how the industries’ revenue has been affected. Using the regression
equation and the R​2 ​value to determine the accuracy we decided to calculate an approximation for
the next 10 years.
We also created a graph that directly modeled the population engaging in cigarette and vaping
usage. This does not take into account the multiple aspects of which demographics are more
likely to engage in substance abuse (see section ⅠⅠ. ?).
Using the regression line equation for the data for revenue of cigarette and vaping companies
(C​r​) and (V​r​), and the data for users (C​p​ and V​p​), and plugging in the equation for the next 10
years (10 years from 2018), it provides an accurate estimate of how nicotine usage will spread.
After looking at data for solely high schoolers (8th, 10th, and 12th grade) for four years (2015,
2016, 2017, 2018 it was established that the use of vaping is increasing for that specific
demographic [1].

Ⅰ.3: ​Variables
Symbol Definition Units

C​p Population using cigarettes based on a certain year, i.e. C​p2018 % of population in
is the population who use cigarettes in the year 2018. the United States

C​r Revenue that cigarette companies are making based on a $ (U.S dollars), for
certain year, i.e. C​r2018​ is the revenue made by cigarette some graphs in
companies in the year 2018. billions of dollars

V​p Population vaping based on a certain year, i.e. V​p2018​ is the % of population in
population who engage in vaping in the year 2018. the United States

V​r Revenue that vaping companies are making based on a $ (U.S dollars), for
certain year, i.e. V​r2018​ is the revenue made by vaping some graphs in
companies in the year 2018. billions of dollars

R​2 Variable given to the value that represents the accuracy of No units
how well the regression line fits the data, 1.0 and -1.0 being
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it fits exactly, and 0 being that it does not fit at all. If

R​2​≥|0.5|, it is considered strong, if R​2​≤|0.09| it is considered
weak, and if |0.09|<R​2​<|0.5| it’s considered average.

r Variable that relates how well a given regression line fits the No units
data points. If r≥|0.7|, it is considered strong, if r≤|0.3| it is
considered weak, and if |0.3|<r<|0.7| it’s considered average.

Ⅰ.4: ​Assumptions
1. Industry revenue is an accurate model of how the population using the product is increasing or
decreasing [2].
Reasoning: While the graph labelled “Industry Revenue for Vaping and Cigarette
Companies” does not model the usage of the substances precisely, it is unreasonable to
contribute the majority of increase in industry revenue solely to an increase in spending
by a set amount of people who engage in usage of the product. In this case the R​2​ value
for the data from 2013-2018 is 0.997, making it a reasonable assumption to say that there
is a constant rate of people who start and stop using the product. If the R​2 ​ value is strong
between the given data points of C​r2013​ through C​r2018​ and C​r1995​ through C​r2017​, it is
reasonable to use the regression line equation to calculate a an accurate estimate from
C​r2019​ through C​r2028​ and C​p2018​ through C​p2028​.

2. The data given on revenue and substance usage (for vaping and cigarettes) is an accurate
representation of the United States as a whole.
Reasoning: Much of the data included in the report comes from The Substance Abuse and
Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA). SAMHSA uses a state-based design
with an independent multistage area probability design within each state. The data
provided is from sections of states (each equally populated with specific sampling
regions). In each section sampled, a dwelling unit is selected where two people over the
age of 12 are surveyed. In the United States there are 750 state sampling regions. Their
design results in increase precision in measuring year to year trends. The survey design
also allocates more interviews to the largest 12 states, making the sample sizes more
proportional to the state population, ultimately improving the precision and reliability of
the data. Between 2005 and 2013 the sample size was allocated equally between between
three age groups, the age groups being: 12-17, 18-25, and 26 and older, to make it more
accurate according to certain age demographics.
The splitting of surveying based on age is especially significant in this study based off of
the amount of people who engage in vaping and the correlation with age.
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3. People who engage in the usage of cigarettes or vaping do not use both.
Reasoning: The graph labelled “Cigarette/Vape Usage Throughout Time,” measures the
percent of the adult population that engages in vaping or cigarette usage, but there was no
accurate way to model what part of the population used both. While this isn’t ideal in the
modeling of the situation, it does not affect the modeling of the fact that as industry
revenue increases for vaping companies it decreases for cigarette companies, and the
same trend is seen in the users of vaping and cigarette. This does illustrate that the use of
vaping has increased in the past years, as has the usage of nicotine with the new trend[1].
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Ⅰ. 5: Problem Solution and Results

Because the ultimate goal of this problem was to find an accurate and simple way to
model the spread of nicotine usage (specifically nicotine usage in vaping) and how the growth
compares to that of cigarette usage, we decided on bar graphs for the majority of the data. Bar
graphs provide a simple way to analyze data based off of age, giving a good visual for how
vaping and smoking cigarettes affects certain demographics.
After graphing the industry revenue in billions of dollars for vaping and cigarette usage
(from year 2013 to 2018) we made a mathematical model and inserted a regression line. The
regression line for cigarette companies industrial revenue was y=-0.367x+754, y​=​revenue in
billions of US dollars, x=year, i.e. 2013 is entered as year 2013. With this regression line being
used as an input up to 2028 (as the data given only goes up to 2018). The cigarette industry
revenue will decrease from 13.67 to 9.864 billion dollars, which gives a good model of how the
usage in the population of the United States will change within the next 10 years. Nicotine usage,
or vape usage is also modelled in the industry revenue with the regression line of y=0.469x-943.
With 2028 being used as the year for the next 10 years, the revenue industry value will go from
3.6 to 8.112 billion dollars.
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Ⅰ.6:Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths
● Accurate Data Compilation: The data used in these studies was very difficult to compline
into an accurate, understandable graphs. Our use of line graphs and calculation of
regression lines were very useful in creating our final calculations, making it a very
straightforward process.
● We were very thorough with our explanation on assumptions when discussing why we
knew our data was reliable. We thought this was a very important part because our
sources would affect the reliability of the entire report, and how the data was acquired
from the sources would affect the reliability of our graphs and conclusions.
Weaknesses
● The inability to make a sensitivity analysis. We found that with our data a sensitivity
analysis was not as useful as we had originally thought it would be. Because the majority
of our data was based off of single variables such as age and race, it became difficult to
apply a sensitivity analysis to the data
● Lack in diversity of graph types. We found that the use of bar graphs, line graphs, and
scatterplots was extremely useful in modelling our data in the most efficient way; this
was the main type of graph that was used in this section, when we were sure other graph
types could be applied.
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Section ⅠⅠ: Above or Under the Influence

Ⅱ.1: ​Restatement of the Challenge
This section asked our group to create a model that simulates the probability that a given
individual will use a given substance. To demonstrate the model, we were asked to predict how
many students out of a class of 300 high school seniors with different characteristics will use
nicotine, marijuana, alcohol, and un-prescribed opioids.

Ⅱ.2:​ Approach to the Challenge

We listed possible demographics that a given person may fall into and took into account social
factors, individual characteristics, and characteristics of the drug itself. Since there were many
possible variable to intertwine with each other the focus was mainly on race, class, and gender
since this is common information that many researchers ask for in their questionnaires. Once we
compiled our data, we noticed that this was many probability problems that relate to each other.
From here, we created equations that relate the probabilities together.

II.3 ​Variables

Symbol Definition Units

A Estimated amount of people # of people in United States

to be abusing alcohol.

O Estimated amount of people # of people in United States

to be abusing opioids.

M Estimated amount of people # of people in United States

to be abusing marijuana.

N Estimated amount of people # of people in United States

to be abusing nicotine
products.

Y Given substance. N/A

Z Ratio of total population. People in certain category:

total population in the United
States

X Number of people. # of people in United States

c Caucasian # of people in United States

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aa African-American # of people in United States

n Native-American # of people in United States

a Asian # of people in United States

L Lower-class # of people in United States

U Upper-class # of people in United States

II.4 ​Assumptions
1. Data from each source is current with recent data.
Reasoning: While the data is immense and specific, there are many times in which the
data derives from an abundance of years which led us to conclude that averages
throughout the years lead to acceptable data. Along with this, there are many instances in
which there is mixed data from high school students along with adults. While some of
this data aligns with both demographics compared, there are times when the lack of data
does not allow for comparisons. With the model predicting the 300 high school students,
it was necessary to assume that the same statistics that affect adults must translate to
effect high school students.
2. Data is categorized in smaller groups when data overlaps in each category according to
race and the likeliness of substance abuse.
Reasoning: In the graph model labeled “Percent of Population Engaging in Abuse of
Substances Based on Race” the data overlapped with that of other categories such as the
statistics in source [3]. Since there was not varying data on the other races/ethnicities, we
decided to use 3 of those categories instead to at least provide a model that uses the rest
of the important data.
3. All figures represent linear data.
Reasoning: All data that has been compiled and models that explain the data are directly
related to the growth of the affecting variable. After experimentation and analysis for
each graph, no other relation for the graphs and data created sensibile solutions. Since
each category directly relates to the amount of people who may abuse each chosen
substance in the future, it is only plausible to create a model that shows that linear
representation.
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II.5 ​Problem Solution and Results

II.6 ​Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths
● Accurate figures depicting each grouping of data; each figure represents the data we were
able to collect throughout our research. Our confident findings were able to be created as
models as shown on each figure.
● Various sources to compare to each other and check to make sure data is correct. Because
of the mass information we collected depending on each group shown, we can
confidently say the data is correct in corresponding to each other.

Weaknesses
● Some data with not fully accurate information. Because of the lack of data for each of our
specific categories, some of the percentages we had to mathematically create with the
number provided dependent on each source.
● Limited categories to model depending on the data researched. We would have provided
more types of categories that could have been deciding factors on the future of substance
abuse but because of the limited data this was not possible.
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Section III: Ripples

III.1 ​Restatement of the Challenge
In this section we were asked to develop a robust metric for the impact of substance use.
We were also told to take into account both financial and nonfinancial factors. We then had to
rank the substances we used in question #2 (i.e. nicotine, marijuana, alcohol, and prescribed
opioids).

III.2 ​Approach to the Challenge

Our approach to this was to summarize all the date we had collected from the past
substances in part 2 and create a graph of the spread of all of them as a whole over time. We also
collected new data to compare to our old, and to add in external factors from previous parts, such
as the financial factors from substances in part 2. With that information we were then able to
rank the substances from part 2.

III.3 ​Assumption​s
One of the assumptions made in our solution is the data being used is under the
assumption of adults having a similar usage pattern as teens, that mirrors that of part 1 and 2.
Furthermore, in the report, in the cost of substances for the nation, marijuana was grouped with
opioids as other drugs, because the small percentage of it that is prescription based, is the only
taxable form of it for the nation’s data.

III.4 ​Problem Solution and Results

Although all forms of substance abuse are prevalent in our day and age, there is variation
between the usage of the different forms. On average, opioid is the most used substance. This is
shown through the 54.9% of females who use it and 42% of males who use it. Marijuana comes
in second place at 20% for females and 25% for males. Next comes nicotine at about 14% for
females and 19% for males. Alcohol abuse comes in last at about 4% for females and 8% for
males. 14% for females and 19% for males.
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This data shows the cost towards the country that each drug holds[6]. This can be used to
determine a robust metric because

III.5 ​Weakness and Strengths

Weakness
Lack of separation between marijuana cost and prescribed opioids

Strength
Accurate modeling of how the rankings and the cost relate strongly to each other. The drugs that
make the U.S. more money will be in higher circulation. Things like legalizing marijuana will
cause the use of it to go up (according to this data), because not only is it already a high use drug,
but it also brings in more money. This data matches the rankings of the substances from section
two[page 10] and will likely match them as a growth over time.
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References
[1] ​NIH-DrugTrends-Data Sheet 
[2]​https://www.statista.com/statistics/248964/revenues-from-tobacco-tax-and-forecast-in-the-us/
[3]​https://www.niaaa.nih.gov/alcohol-health/overview-alcohol-consumption/alcohol-facts-and-st
atistics
[4]​https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/1fe4/93b1b98cd9cc480c2ef6434f0f28f0905c9d.pdf
[5]​https://www.theverge.com/2016/12/29/14117964/e-cigarette-vaping-increase-teens-cdc-health
-risks
[6]​https://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/cbhsq-reports/NSDUHDetailedTabs2017/NS
DUHDetailedTabs2017.pdf
[7]​https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/campaign/tips/resources/data/cigarette-smoking-in-united-states
.html
[8]​https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-ecigs-us-adults/almost-one-in-20-u-s-adults-now-us
e-e-cigarettes-idUSKCN1LC2DN
[9]​https://truthinitiative.org/news/study-reveals-major-victory-teen-smoking-ticking-time-bomb-
youth-vaping-numbers-explode
[10]​https://truthinitiative.org/news/e-cigarettes-facts-stats-and-regulations
[11]​https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/sgr/2000/pdfs/cdc-60100788-AdultTeen-BW.pd
f
[12]​http://www.casaa.org/historical-timeline-of-electronic-cigarettes/#Y2003
[13]​https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/67/wr/mm6706a5.htm?s_cid=mm6706a5_w
[14]​https://www.statista.com/statistics/248964/revenues-from-tobacco-tax-and-forecast-in-the-us
[15]​https://www.projectknow.com/drug-addiction/statistics/
[16]​http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/Yahoo%20News/20170417_Summary%20Yah
oo%20News-Marist%20Poll_Weed%20and%20The%20American%20Family.pdf
[17]​https://www.cdc.gov/healthyyouth/data/yrbs/pdf/trendsreport.pdf
[18]​https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5675036/