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Dividing the HR System into Subgroups

Rachid Belhaj, Mohamed Tkiouat

Mohammadia School of Engineering Rabat, Studies and Research Laboratory in Applied Mathematics (LERMA), Mohammed V

University, Agdal, Morocco.

Email: rachidblh@yahoo.fr, mohamedtkiouat@gmail.com

Received April 17th, 2013; revised May 26th, 2013; accepted July 10th, 2013

Copyright © 2013 Rachid Belhaj, Mohamed Tkiouat. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribu-

tion License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly

cited.

ABSTRACT

Modeling the manpower management mainly concerns the prediction of future behavior of employees. The paper pre-

sents a predictive model of numbers of employees in a hierarchical dependent-time system of human resources, incor-

porating subsystems that each contains grades of the same family. The proposed model is motivated by the reality of

staff development which confirms that the path evolution of each employee is usually in his family of grades. That is

the reason of dividing the system into subgroups and the choice of the superdiagonal transition matrix.

the balance between demand and supply, in order to have

Human Resources Planning (HRP) according to Collings

the right number of employees in the right place at the

[1] represents the range of philosophies, tools and tech-

right time. Demand is influenced by the strategies and

niques that any organization should deploy to monitor and

manage the movement of staff, both in terms of numbers business objectives. Supply is projected from current em-

and profiles. ployees (via calculations of expected leavers, retirements,

Traditionally, manpower planning focused on the num- promotions, etc.) and availability of skills in the labor

ber of employees and levels and types of skills in the market.

organization. A typical model of the traditional manpower The demand and supply are then reconciled by con-

planning is shown in the model of Torrington et al. [2], sidering a range of options and plans to achieve a feasible

Figure 1. balance. Optimal recruitment and transition patterns are

determined by minimizing expected discrepancies between

Environment actual states and preferred goals Mehlmann [3], Poorna-

chandra [4].

Objectives

And strategies

Internal

Manpower

extenal

manpower

Supply

supply supply

2.1. The Demand Forecast

The demand forecast anticipates the future manpower that

Project

manpower

Reconcile

Project

manpower

will be needed to accomplish the future functional require-

demand supply ments and carry out the mission of the organization. In this

step, a review of staffing requirements against future func-

tional requirements is performed.

Manpower

plans

2.2. The Prediction of Supply

Figure 1. A model of traditional manpower planning. The prediction of the offer according to Torrington et al.

212 A Markov Model for Human Resources Supply Forecast Dividing the HR System into Subgroups

[2], is subject to how the current supply of employees will esting idea was proposed by De Feyter [13], which di-

change internally. These changes are anticipated by ana- vides the population of the studied system into several

lyzing what happened in the past, in terms of staff reten- more homogeneous subgroups. The division was based

tion and/or movement, and extrapolating into the future to on characteristics such as: gender, number of children by

see what would happen with the same trends of the past. individuals...etc. This provides an opportunity for a deep

In forecasting the supply of human resources, organi- investigation and probably more sophisticated.

zations must consider both internal and external supply of In this article we will address the problem of planning

qualified candidates. The domestic supply of candidates is by dividing the entire heterogeneous manpower system in

influenced by the training and the manpower development several homogeneous subgroups (families of the same

and mobility policies, promotion and retirement. In this grades) which form a partition of the entire personnel sys-

step the Markov modeling is one of the best tools to model tem. This simplifies the prediction of the manpower evo-

the manpower structure evolution. lution, as it becomes acceptable that everyone in the same

group evolves similarly. The proposed model gives a

3. State of the Art more realistic view of the manpower advancement and the

development of each employee in his normal family, this

The objective of constructing a stochastic model of the

model finds its motivation in the following findings:

process of human resources is especially to be able to pre-

The consolidation of staff by grade family of the

dict future numbers in the different categories of grades.

same nature (agents, technicians, executives, man-

The stochastic model specifies for each process, in prob-

agers, leaders...) facilitates the prediction of the career

abilistic terms the law of change in each individual level.

path of each employee in his family by limiting its

Researchers used a Markov model associated or inte-

area of movement. Thus each family of grade will be

grated to describe the change of the process in light of its

given a special transition matrix does not interfere

historical evolution, Bartholomew [5]. Although these mo-

with the data of inaccessible grades.

dels are formulated in stochastic terms, they are always

In most cases, the career of an individual in an orga-

treated in a discreet way. The current number of indivi-

nization is related to its level of study and diplomas

duals in a group of grades is a random variable, but the

while hiring. The grades to which each employee can

analysis proceeds by replacing each random variable by

be promoted (compatible of course with his training,

its expectation.

skills, experience...) are limited, therefore his entire

The concept of the Non-Homogeneous Markov Sys-

career can be known in advance and will be ac-

tems (NHMS) in modeling the manpower system was in-

complished without many surprises.

troduced by Vassiliou [6]. Presentations in the literature of

A fourth grade technician for example has practically

the theory of NHMS have flourished in recent years Vas-

zero chance of seeing one day finish his career with

siliou and Georgiou [7], Vassiliou et al. [8].

the rank of chief, because on the one hand the time

Tsantas and Vassiliou [9] had the idea to provide a sto-

required for the advancement from one grade to an-

chastic structure for the NHMS in establishing a model

other in this example does not allow it, on the other

with an inherent stochastic mechanism. Their efforts have

hand those of a higher academic level are more likely

involved the construction of a procedure which allows the

to hold this position. Only by additional studies sanc-

NHMS to select among several possibilities transition.

tioned by higher degrees (which is difficult and rare

Nilakantan and Raghavendra [10] suggested a policy of

at a time) that a technician can expect to climb the

proportionality of the Markov system, namely recruitment

ladder quickly. This example inspires us to put each

at all levels of the hierarchy (except at the lowest level) to

employee in his normal family where he can evolve.

be in strict proportion to the levels in these promotions.

In the next section we begin by recalling the notations

Another idea was presented by Georgiou and Tsantas [11]

and formulas modeling the manpower planning by Mar-

who have enriched the framework NHMS with an ex-

kov chains, and then the object model of this section is

ternal state next to the original class/internal (active), it is

presented with its parameters and the different formulas

the Augmented Mobility Model (AMM).

that characterize it to arrive to the equation that deter-

Dimitriou and Tsantas [12] then presented an improved

mines the structure of the projected population at any

model GAMM namely “the Generalized Augmented Mo-

time t. The last section is reserved to a numerical appli-

bility Model”, it is a time-dependent hierarchical system

cation of the theoretical results of the model.

of (human resources) incorporating training classes and

two recruitment channels: the external environment and

4. The Model Overview

other external auxiliary system consisting of potential can-

didates (who are part of a preparatory class). We begin by a recalling of the notations and formulas

Recently, new ideas were presented in the field of modeling the manpower planning by Markov chains.

mathematical models for manpower planning. An inter- The stochastic modeling of the HR system; Tsantas

A Markov Model for Human Resources Supply Forecast Dividing the HR System into Subgroups 213

Consider a discrete time scale t = 0, 1, 2, ... and G = {1, second grade technicians, first grade technicians...), and a

2, ..., k} a set of classes of a system that is supposed ex- family of leaders will be formed by people with the ca-

clusive and exhaustive. The system state at each date t is pacity as the holder of executive responsibility (Chief of

represented by the row vector N (t) = [N1 (t), N2 (t) ... Nk a Bureau, Chief of a section, Project Manager, depart-

(t)] of numbers of individuals in classes at the time t. ment head, division head...).

We assume that the individual transitions between

classes are on a non-homogeneous Markov chain. In this 5.3. The Transition Matrix

model, individual movements are represented by a time-

For every subset Si is assigned a transition matrix Pi. Our

dependent sub stochastic matrix.

system is hierarchical and it is assumed that the promo-

The system of HR can be represented by a NHMS

tion is done only to the first next higher grade, and there-

(Non-Homogeneous Markov System); Tsantas [14] de-

fore the transition matrix will be superdiagonal. Within

fined by:

each family operates the movement of its staff.

The state of the system: N (t) = [N1 (t), N2 (t), ... Nk

(t)] with:

5.4. The Departure

Ni (t): the number of individuals in class i at time t.

N (0): the initial structure. A departure vector is assigned to each family; this vector

{T (t)}∞t=0: a sequence indicating the total size of the contains the proportions of people of each level who will

system. leave the family. In our model the leavers move to the

P (t): the transition matrix. next family and to the external environment.

{Pk +1 (t)}∞t=0, Pi,k+1 (t) is the probability of departure

of the ith individual to a hypothetical class k + 1 that 5.5. The Recruitment

shows the external environment where those leaving

A distribution recruitment vector is assigned to each fam-

the system are transferred.

ily, the components of this vector equal to the recruit-

{P0 (t)} t ≥ 0, a new recruit is allocated to class j with

ment proportion of individuals to the corresponding level.

probability P0J (t) j Є G, these probabilities collected

Since our Human Resources System is hierarchical the

in a row vector P0 (t) is called the distribution of re-

recruitment proportion in the first level of the family Si+1

cruitment.

comes from Si and the external environment.

The embedded non-homogeneous Markov chain:

Let Q (t) = P (t) + P'k+1 (t) P0 (t), the matrix Q (t) is a

5.6. The Model Parameters

stochastic matrix and defines what is called an embedded

non-homogeneous Markov chain. Consider a discrete time scale t = 0, 1, 2 ... and S = {S1,

The forecasted structure of the system at the time t S2, S3, ..., Sn} is a group of families of grades of a system

according to that at the time t 1 is: that is supposed exclusive and exhaustive. Si = (si1, si2,

si3 ..., sim) is a subset of S consisting of levels of the same

N t N t 1 Q t 1 P t 1 T t T t 1

0

family. Knowing that sij level is greater than the level si,j-1,

and also the grade of Si is higher than that of Si-1, see

5. The Proposed Model Parameters Figure 2.

5.1. The System We assume that the individual transitions between

classes are on a non-homogeneous Markov chain. In this

The hierarchical system of grades constituting the orga-

nization is divided into subsets Si, S = {S1, S2, S3, ..., Sn},

each subset is formed by a family of grades of the same Ri

kind, i.e. a family whose people come from the same Distribution snm ,..,sn1

initial training that provides the same level of study. Si is recruitment

written as Si = (si1, si2, ..., sim), knowing that sij is the rank Ri sn -1,1,.., sn-1,m

vector Ri

j of the family of grade i. sij are the different levels of the

grade, for example for the grade of technician the levels . . . . . . . . . . . . Wi : departure from Si to Si+1 and

are technician of first grade, second grade, etc. Ri . to the external environment

s31 ,s32 ,s33.................,s3m

5.2. The Subgroups of the System s2m ,s2,m-1 ,..............., s23 ,s22 ,s 21

A subgroup is a family of grades made by people with s11 ,s12 ,s13............................,s1,m-1,s1m

the same education level, experience, etc., a family of

technicians will be made by the technicians of various Figure 2. Model of manpower system division.

214 A Markov Model for Human Resources Supply Forecast Dividing the HR System into Subgroups

model, individual movements are represented by a time- Let Qi (t) = Pi (t) + w'i (t) Ri (t), the matrix Qi(t) is a

dependent sub stochastic matrix of transition probabili- stochastic matrix and defines what is called an embedded

ties. non-homogeneous Markov chain.

The HR system can be represented by a NHMS (Non- The forecasted structure in the family i at the time t +1

Homogeneous Markov System) defined by: according to that at the time t is:

The system state at each date to come t is represented

N t 1 N t Q t R t T t 1 T t

by the row vector N (t) which components are the Ni i i i

(t) = [ni1 (t), ni2 (t), ..., nim (t)]. 1 ≤ i ≤n, with: nij (t): The forecasted structure of the system at time t + 1

the number of individuals in the level j at the time t of according to that at time t is:

the family of grades i.

N (0): the initial structure. N t N t , N t , , N t

n

family i. 6. Numerical Example

Ri (t): the recruitment distribution vector of the family

of grade i, Ri (t) = [ri1 (t), ri2 (t), ..., rim (t)]. In this section we will present an example that will illus-

{T (t)} 0 ≤ t ≤ n: the sequence indicating the total size trate the model described above. Consider a system of

of the system. five families of grades S = {S1, S2, S3, S4, S5} see Table

Pi (t) 1 ≤ i ≤ n: the transition matrix specific to the 1.

family of grades i, it is a superdiagonal matrix. The human resources system is modeled using a Mar-

The forecasted structure in the family i at time t +1 kov chain with four states for each family. The starting

according to that at time t is: structure is shown in the Table 1, the target structures

N i t 1 N i t Pi t R i t suits the strategic objectives of the organization (There is

Note that for a given family: an assessment of the future demand for HR, taking into

account the current situation, the external environment

w 1 p t , 1 j m for t 0.

and the organization’s business plan), see Table 1.

The embedded non-homogeneous Markov Chain: In the Table 1 is also shown the vector of the starting

Family Si Frame Grades Starting structure Departure vector Recruitment vector Target structure

First grade 6 0.825 0.025 8

S5 Administrator Second grade 8 0.125 0.025 20

Third grade 10 0.025 0.15 26

Fourth grade 12 0.025 0.8 8

First grade 8 0.725 0.05 24

S4 Editor Second grade 10 0.125 0.05 30

Third grade 12 0.125 0.15 20

Fourth grade 14 0.025 0.75 16

First grade 10 0.6 0.05 22

S3 Technician Second grade 12 0.2 0.05 40

Third grade 14 0.1 0.2 26

Fourth grade 16 0.1 0.7 12

First grade 10 0.6 0.05 22

S2 Technician Second grade 12 0.2 0.05 50

assistante Third grade 14 0.1 0.3 36

Fourth grade 15 0.1 0.6 12

First grade 12 0.5 0.1 36

S1 Administrative Second grade 14 0.3 0.15 50

agent Third grade 16 0.1 0.25 38

Fourth grade 20 0.1 0.5 6

A Markov Model for Human Resources Supply Forecast Dividing the HR System into Subgroups 215

recruitment probabilities (you can notice that since our Example of the Matlab code (Family S1):

system is hierarchical the highest recruitment probabili- p = [0.5 0.4 0 0; 0 0.6 0.3 0; 0 0 0.5 0.2; 0 0 0 0.5]%

ties concern the first levels of the family. Inversely the The transition matrix

highest departure probabilities are in the last levels of the x = [20; 16; 14; 12]% The starting structure

family because it is logic that the employees of the fam- y = [0.5 0.25 0.15 0.1]% The recruitment probabilities

ily Si intend to reach the positions in the family Si+1). Pi is vector

the transition matrix (obtained from historical data), for t = [62 70 76 80 86 92 100 114 120 130]% The total

each family there is a transition matrix. structure size of S1 for 10 years

The transition matrices P1 to P5 (obtained from his- k = [0.1; 0.1; 0.3; 0.5]% The departure probabilities

torical data) provide the proportions of employees that vector

remain in the same position and the one that move to the t = 10 % The planification horizon

next level. Since our Human Resources System is hier- A = zeros (t,4)% The states matrix

A(1, :) = X

archical the employees in first levels try to move up to

B=zeros(t,4)

the highest ones,

B(1, :)=y

P1 = [0.5 0.4 0 0, 0 0.6 0.3 0, 0 0 0.5 0.2, 0 0 0 0.5];

for n = 1:(t − 1)

P2 = [0.5 0.4 0 0, 0 0.6 0.3 0, 0 0 0.6 0.2, 0 0 0 0.4];

Q = P+[K * B( n,:)]

P3 = [0.5 0.4 0 0, 0 0.6 0.3 0, 0 0 0.6 0.2, 0 0 0 0.4];

A(n + 1, :) = A(n, :) * Q + [ T(n + 1) − T(n)] * B( n, :)

P4 = [0.65 0.325 0 0, 0 0.5 0.375 0, 0 0 0.5 0.375, 0 0 0 B(n + 1, :)=A(n + 1, :)/T(n + 1)

0.275]; end

P5 = [0.6 0.375 0 0, 0 0.75 0.225 0, 0 0 0.6 0.275, 0 0 0 v = A (:,1) w = A (:,2) z = A(:,3) s = A (:,4) plot

0.175]. ([1:10]', [v'; w'; z'; s'])

The total structures for all Si during the planning ho- The Table 3 shows the results of the evolution of the

rizon of 10 years are in the Table 2. families S1 to S5.

The simulation with Matlab (see an example of the Reading and interpreting the results of the Table 3:

Matlab code here after) returns a matrix A (10 × 4), in the The results table shows the evolution of the staff num-

first line is stored the initial structure, the row i gives the ber of the four levels constituting the families S1, S2, S3, S4,

structure of the family at time i (1 ≤ i ≤ 10). The first and S5. There are differences observed between the struc-

column shows the evolution in numbers of level 1, the ture at the planning horizon and the target structure.

other columns stand the same for the other levels of the The results Table 4 shows the levels of grades that are

family, see matrices Ai and graphical representations in in surplus or in shortfall of the four levels constituting

the Figure 3. each family.

Table 2. The total structures size for all Si during the planning horizon of 10 years.

Time

Subgroups 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

S1 62 70 76 80 86 92 100 114 120 130

S2 51 60 66 70 76 82 90 98 110 120

S3 52 58 64 70 76 80 85 90 96 100

S4 44 50 52 56 60 70 74 78 86 90

S5 36 38 42 44 46 50 54 56 60 62

Table 3. Results and differences between the structure at t = 0 and the target structure.

S11 S12 S13 S14 S21 S22 S23 S24 S31 S32 S33 S34 S41 S42 S43 S44 S51 S52 S53 S54

Starting 20 16 14 12 15 14 12 10 16 14 12 10 14 12 10 8 12 10 8 6

structure

Structure 4 38 52 36 3 30 59 28 3 25 49 23 12 21 33 24 2 26 24 10

at t = 0

Target 6 38 50 36 12 36 50 22 12 26 40 22 16 20 30 24 8 26 20 8

structure

difference −2 0 2 0 −9 −6 9 6 −9 −1 9 1 −4 1 3 0 −6 0 4 2

216 A Markov Model for Human Resources Supply Forecast Dividing the HR System into Subgroups

60

50

S 13

20. 900 0 23 .05 00 15 .07 00 10 .98 00

S1 grades number

40 S 12

16. 542 6 28 .90 94 18 .84 31 11 .70 48

30

12. 635 7 31 .58 97 23 .06 56 12 .70 90 S 14

20

10. 060 6 33 .36 52 27 .84 20 14 .73 22

10

8 .07 91 3 4.1 543 3 2.3 67 7 17.3 98 9 S 11

0

6 .72 96 3 5.0 965 3 7.2 07 6 20.9 66 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

years

6 .04 51 3 7.7 280 4 3.9 51 8 26.2 75 1 Graphic al repre se nt ation of A 1

60

15.0000 14.0000 12.0000 10.0000

19.6800 20.4900 12.4150 7.4150 50 S23

S2 grades number

15.3993 25.9541 17.1030 7.5436 40

11.4520 28.0563 22.2155 8.2762 S22

30

8.8932 29.1740 27.8903 10.0425

20

S24

6.9519 29.2804 33.3435 12.4242

10

5.6587 29.5425 39.2594 15.5393

S21

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

4.6336 29.4084 44.9359 19.0222

years

4.0097 30.2429 52.2015 23.5459 Graphical representation of A2

3.3898 30.1953 58.4238 27.9912

5 0

4 0 S 33

S3 grades number

S 32

2 5

1 5

S 34

9 .58 70 2 9.1 839 2 7.2 71 9 9 .95 72

1 0

S 31

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

5 .61 93 2 8.1 228 3 6.7 43 1 14.5 14 8

y ea rs

4 .42 48 2 7.2 048 4 1.0 43 8 17.3 26 5 Grap hic al rep re sent atio n o f A 3

35

30

S 43

S4 grades number

25

17. 330 9 15 .60 01 12 .01 49 7.0 54 1 S 4 4

20

S 4 2

15. 597 6 17 .33 24 14 .86 11 8.2 08 9

15

14. 139 6 18 .18 17 17 .74 25 9.9 36 2

10

S 41

14. 386 5 20 .36 73 22 .20 91 13 .03 71

5

13. 283 6 20 .42 64 24 .81 28 15 .47 71 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

yea rs

12. 441 4 20 .38 45 27 .17 75 17 .99 67 G rap h ic al rep re se nta tion of A 4

30

12. 000 0 10 .00 00 8.0 00 0 6 .00 00

S 52

25

S5 grades number

20

11. 511 8 18 .15 69 8.9 58 6 3 .37 27 S 53

15

8 .72 81 2 0.8 068 1 0.8 77 6 3 .58 74

6 .63 69 2 2.2 156 1 2.9 52 9 4 .19 46

10 S 54

5

5 .39 62 2 3.8 839 1 5.5 30 1 5 .18 98

S 51

0

4 .42 00 2 5.1 694 1 8.0 94 5 6 .31 61 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0

ye ars

3 .48 79 2 5.2 945 1 9.9 41 8 7 .27 58 G rap hic al r ep re se nt ation o f A 5

2 .91 58 2 6.2 478 2 2.3 62 2 8 .47 42

2 .35 77 2 6.2 544 2 3.9 87 7 9 .40 02

A Markov Model for Human Resources Supply Forecast Dividing the HR System into Subgroups 217

Table 4. Shortfalls and surpluses found between the structure at t = 0 and the target structure.

S11 S12 S13 S14 S21 S22 S23 S24 S31 S32 S33 S34 S41 S42 S43 S44 S51 S52 S53 S54

Shortfall 2 0 0 9 6 9 1 4 0 6 0

Surplus 0 2 0 9 6 9 1 1 3 0 0 4 2

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