HLS 170 Threat Group Profile

Intentions:

What does the group want to accomplish (ideology?)

Does it post a threat to the UAE?

Capabilities:

How many members does the group have?

What types of weapons does it have?

Where do the members come from? How are they radicalized?

What is the groups Method of Operations (MO):

Ambushes, arsons, bombings, hijackings

Opportunities:

Can the group access the UAE?

Can they win?

 Example: IRA

Intentions:

The IRA- this paper is focusing on the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) the dominant group
during the 1969-2005 referred to in the rest of this paper as the IRA, is an ethno nationalists group that
wanted to split Northern Ireland off from the UK, joint it with the Republic of Ireland and then create a
socialists state on the entire nation. (Use citation) Thus the British state, the Army, the police and other
symbols of what it said were symbols of the occupations and collaborators with the state.

The group posed no threat to the UAE (

If you decided to write on AQ or Da’ish you would describe the group’s ideology and what it is fighting
for. You would mention where they are fighting and a who the enemy is. If the groups are a threat to the
UAE you should say why they are.

Additional note, if you are writing about Yemen, please be careful to note if the Houthis are a threat to
the UAE because Emeriti troops are fighting in the country or the Houthis pose an threat to the UAE for
some other reason.

Capabilities:

During the conflict scholars have estimated that between 8-30,000 people were members of the IRA(
citation) from 1969 to the mid-1970s the IRA had a conventional military structure that required large
numbers of volunteers- the IRA term for its members. From the mid-1970s until the end of the struggle
the IRA reorganized into a cellular structure using Active Service Units- ASU, to conduct its operations
These smaller cells reduced the number of required active members to between 1500-3000( citation)

In the early years the IRA’s arsenal consisted of a mix of World War Two small arms and a range of other
personal weapons. From the mid 1970 there was a more reliable supply of weapons smuggles from the
United States (citation) From the mid-1980s the Libyan government supplied the IRA with 300 tomes of
military equipment (citation). The group also had a sophisticated engineering department that create a
range of homade bombs and mortars. The IRA totally disarmed in 2015 it had:

1,000 rifles

2 tonnes of Semtex

20-30 heavy machine guns

7 Surface-to-air missiles (unused)

7 flame throwers

1,200 detonators

11 rocket-propelled grenade launchers

90 hand guns

100+ grenade

The IRA volunteers were recruited from working class nationalist/Catholic areas of Northern Ireland and
the Republic of Ireland. The members were radicalized through a highly developed sense of grievance (
citation) ( both historic and current) and a sense that the political arrangements in Northern Ireland
unable or unwilling to meet the catholic demands. In the early years the volunteers were largely young
men- though women had an important role particularly in the political operations. (Citation)

Members were radicalized trough their personal or family experience with discrimination or violence. In
many cases the volunteers came from families with long traditions of fighting against the British state-
there was a failed armed campaign in the late 1950s; and may nationalists claimed that the current
troubles stretched back almost 800 years (citation) The strong sense of nationalism that many IRA
members had was developed through participation in Irish language class as well as through
participation on Irish cultural and athletic activities. (Citation) Most members received at least limited
military training in illegal camps in the Republic of Ireland. Some volunteers received more advanced
training in Libya and perhaps other countries.

Other groups will be motivated by religion, political ideology or other reasons. They will be radicalized
through religious institutions, athletic clubs, social media or other reasons. You will need to saw what
caused the radicalization and how people are recruited and radicalized. Also discuss what type of
training and where it was conducted.

What is the groups Method of Operations (MO):

The war was largely fought in urban areas of Northern Ireland, such as Belfast and Londerry as well as
rural areas along the British Irish border. The group typically engaged in ambushes, bombings and sniper
attacks. They also used their ASU’s to conduct robberies and other criminal activities to fund the war.

You can also just list where the group operates, he types of tactics the group uses, and how it funds its
operations.

Opportunities:

During most of the troubles the UAE was becoming a significant international transit hub so the IRA
could have accessed the country. However, they were uninterested in attacking the UAE so the access
was not critical.

If the group you are writing about has threatened the UAE or its interests you will need to say yes the
group can access the UAE and that it intends to use that access for an attack. You will also want to note
if three is a community in the UAE that could potentially provide support for a group.

The IRA did not achieve its objective of unifying Ireland under its rule; and given its size and the inability
to defeat the UK military it was unlikely to every win, or be defeated. The political concessions it gained
from the so called Good Friday Accords has created a political path towards achieving its ultimate
objective.
You can answer this either yes or no depending on the group and what your research says. If you are
writing about the Kurds in Iraq you can say that they are unlikely to win their independence, but there
armed force is large enough and skilled enough to protect the autonomy they already have.