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ADBI-UNESCAP Seminar
Fiscal Governance for Sustainable Growth
and Development in Asia and Pacific Region
Bangkok, 25 April 2019
Earlier we discussed the need for:
4500000 9000
50000
4000000 8000
3500000 7000
40000
3000000 6000
2000000 4000
20000
1500000 3000
1000000 2000
10000
500000 1000
0 0 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Developing Asia-Pacific ASEAN
ASEAN India
China SAARC
India Developing Asia-Pacific (rhs)
SAARC China (rhs)
… but 130 million people still in extreme poverty,
and many more deprived of a fair chance in life
… and with energy demand met by fossil fuels,
carbon emissions keep rising
Can we do better?
Inclusive and sustainable development scenario
People Planet
Prosperity
How much would it cost to achieve the
Sustainable Development Goals?
669
669
669
CLEAN ENERGY
FOR ALL NO POVERTY
37₵ & ZERO
PROTECTION
43₵ HUNGER
FOR NATURE
HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
12₵
SUSTAINABLE
INFRASTRUCTURE
FOR ALL
Investing in PEOPLE to realize basic human
rights and human capacities
700
• Universal access to
600 138
quality education
• Universal health
billion, United States dollar
500
158 coverage
400
21
• Agricultural productivity
4
300 • Nutrition-specific
interventions
200 317
• Social protection floor
100
0
32
Additional investment in
• Targeted cash transfer
PEOPLE per year
Social protection floor
350
benefits
150
100
Annual cost is the product of the
50 estimated beneficiary population and
the unit cost of the benefit, set at the
0
200,000
150,000
$ millions
100,000
50,000
-
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
1,200
250
1,000
200
800
150
600
100 400
50 200
0 0
Pre- Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary
primary
Students (2015) Students (2030)
Per pupil cost (2015) Per pupil cost (2030)
Source: UNESCO-ESCAP
Educations Costing Model
Investing in PLANET to secure humanity’s
future and live in harmony with nature
600
400
-5.0
0.0
5.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
Australia
Russian Federation
New Zealand
China
Eastern Europe and…
The Rest of East Asia and…
Asia-Pacific region
World
South Asia excluding India
material intensity in 2030
India
Deviation from historical trend of
Indonesia
Resources efficiency
Republic of Korea
Japan
Percentage
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
China
South Asia excluding India
India
Asia-Pacific
Indonesia
New Zealand
in 2030
World
The Rest of East Asia and…
Republic of Korea
Japan
Australia
Deviation from histrocial trend of GDP
Russian Federation
ESCAP
Target 8: Pollution
Target 6: Fisheries
0 10 20 30 40 50
Investing in PROSPERITY through enabling
infrastructure
200
180
14 • Water and sanitation
160
56 • Information and
billion, United States dollar
140
communications
120
technology
100
80
126
60
• Transport
40
20
0
Additional investment in the
PROSPERITY per year
Investment needs vs. current flows in
transport, ICT and WSS infrastructure
Methodology and considerations
General methodology
• Projection of future infrastructure demand based on economic,
demographic, urbanization variables
• Estimation of public and private flows to infrastructure
Transport (roads and railways)
• Project-based country-specific unit costs
• Resource optimization holds a high promise
ICT (mobile and fixed-broadband)
• High- and low-cost scenarios based on ITU data
• Critical for the digital economy
Water and sanitation
• Within the premises, readily accessible, free from contamination
• Challenges of water stress and water-related ecosystems
While overall within reach, additional investment
need is more than 16% of GDP in least
developed countries and 10% in South Asia
Investment gap (lower bound) by sub-regions and
18
Similarly, Pacific SIDS face steep
16
and country group, % of GDP
0.8
Potential
savings
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Developing Asia- World Developed countries
Pacific countries
Overall, low tax revenues but some progress in
35
recent years
New Zealand
30
Macao, China
Australia Solomon Islands
Tax revenue in 2017 or latest in % of GDP
Fiji
Samoa
25 Georgia
Maldives Republic of Korea
Armenia Kiribati
Nepal Tonga Uzbekistan
20 Kyrgyzstan Viet Nam
Tajikistan Russian Federation
Japan China
Vanuatu Turkey
Marshall Islands
Cambodia Singapore Thailand Mongolia
15 Philippines Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan Papua New Guinea
Hong Kong, China Malaysia
Sri Lanka Bhutan
Micronesia Timor-Leste
India Lao PDR
10 Pakistan Indonesia
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
5 Myanmar
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Tax revenue in 2012 in % of GDP
Fiscal space is limited by poor access to stable
and affordable financing
Scope for greater private investment
100
Developing countries
90
percentage of total investment
80 Developed countries
Private flows as a
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0