4 Step Model: Prof. Responsável: Filipe Moura

4-Step Model
4 Step Model
Prof. Responsável: Filipe Moura
SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 1

4-Step Model
Transport Demand Modelling
Application of
model and
results evaluation
Model Calibration
and Validation
Modelling
Planning, Data
Collection and
Treatment

4-Step Model
Transport System (Unimodal or Multimodal)

Supply - Infrastructure Demand – Traffic
(people/goods)
• Links • Motorized
– Road – Light vehicles (road/rail)
– Rail – Heavy vehicles (road/rail)
– Light rail – Two-wheelers (motorized)
– Metro – Ferries?
– Busways • Non-motorized
– Cycling
– Pedestrians
– Pedestrian
– Bikes
• Nodes – … (other modes possibly with some
– Design of intersection aid of low-powered electric engines
– Control system – e.g., three-wheelers for impaired
mobility citizens)
– Stops
NETWORK (Supply) TRIPS (Demand)

4-Step Model
The 4 Step Model (I)

• This is a model that tries to reproduce the sequence of decisions
taken by each person in relation to one trip, considering the
variety of supply available, and producing as results estimates of
traffic loads on each element of that supply
• Conceived and initially applied in the US in the early 60’s, to

support decisions on road investments to fight congestion
• Mostly applied for trips in the morning peak period

– In this context, the relation with a single trip per person is normal, but
this prevents application to trip chains along the day
– Applications can also be found for the set of all trips in a day

4-Step Model
The 4 Step Model (II)

• Upstream from the application of the model, study area and its
zoning (Traffic Analysis Zones – TAZ) have to be delimited
• All operations in the model are carried out based on these TAZ or on
the bilateral relationships between them
• Computational and conceptual simplicity of the 4 step model are

largely responsible for its high level of utilization
– In spite of the well known limitations and availability of more sophisticated
methods, this is still by far the most used model
• The 4 steps correspond to 4 sub-models, each of which related to a

basic decision made with regard to one trip, with different
mathematical specifications of the transport demand
4-Step Model
The 4 Steps…
Step Model Objective Decision Representation Illustration Matrix
1– Number of journeys Should To estimate the
Generation (either started or stay or O/D matrix
(Attraction) terminated) in every should boundaries (1 or
zone go? 2 sides)
2– Fraction for the Where To estimate the

Distribution started journeys in should marrow of the
every zone go? O/D matrix
3 – Modal Fraction of OD trips What “Cutting” the
Split per mode transport matrix into n -
mode? O/D matrixes,
where n is the
number of
available modes
4– Route choice of Which Allocating OD
Assignment journeys for every route? matrix trips to
mode, and estimate the network per
the traffic loads in mode, demand
every link of the segment, time of
network day, etc.

4-Step Model
Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ)

Concept and Importance in Traffic Modeling (I)
• Dividing the territory in Zones (for the purpose of Traffic Modeling, and
namely for the definition of O/D matrices), is a process of discretization of
space
– With great advantages for the simplicity of the models and for the
interpretation and communication of results
– But with insufficiently recognized (and managed) problems of loss of
information in the process
• Geographic Information is lost in the process of substituting (concentrating)

the real origins and destinations of trips (which occur over a continuous
space) by an artificial point in each zone, the centroid. In doing this, two
types of losses occur:
– Intra-zonal trips cannot be processed (as they now start and end in the same
point)
– The traveling paths close to the real origins and to destinations of the trips are
subject to large errors, implying that traffic load estimates in the lower
hierarchy links are highly unreliable

4-Step Model
TAZ, OD Matrix, Links, Nodes, Centroids
TAZ
Nodes
Discretization of space
7 6 Centroid Centroid
8 connectors
5 3
4 Links (eg,
roads, streets,
1 etc.)
9 2 10

4-Step Model
Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ)

Concept and Importance in Traffic Modeling (II)
• If loss of information was only geographical, the solution would be easy:

Ø Adopting a high number of small zones!
• But this leads to a head-on collision with the loss of statistical precision,
due to the fact that O/D matrices are always estimated through
sampling processes, most frequently through direct survey of travelers
and /or by traffic counts on network links.
• This leads to two problems:

– Width of Confidence intervals (in relation to the average)
– Higher percentage of cells with zero flow (that were not covered by the
survey)

4-Step Model
TAZ
Increasing the number of smaller zones (I)
1 2 3 4 5 6
2.1
1 t11 t12 t16
2.2
2 t21 t22
2.3
2.4
2 3
1 4
2.5
5
6 t61 t66
3 4
1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 3 4 5 6
5 6 1 t11 t121 t16
2.1 t211
2.2
2.3
2.4
Number of 0 cell increases 2.5
at the expense of larger 3
samples to maintain the 4
same error level 5
6 t61 t66

4-Step Model
TAZ
Increasing the number of smaller zones (II)
OD matrix for the LMA: aggregation of Municipalities into 6 macro-zones
Num Trips/Day LISBOA SINTRA LOURES CASCAIS SOUTH BANK VFXIRA OUT OF LMA TOTAL
LISBOA 347,765 64,996 53,919 53,577 36,692 7,260 4,310 568,519
SINTRA 63,579 153,356 12,260 23,225 6,328 1,283 2,528 262,559
LOURES 54,283 11,632 98,108 4,842 5,034 5,328 3,845 183,072
CASCAIS 52,736 23,622 4,988 154,119 5,603 973 1,327 243,368
SOUTH BANK 36,260 6,161 4,816 5,172 326,204 743 4,478 383,834
VFXIRA 7,105 1,124 5,816 982 571 42,933 4,471 63,002
OUT OF LMA 4,930 2,863 3,964 1,640 4,927 4,617 3,231 26,172
TOTAL 566,658 263,754 183,871 243,557 385,359 63,137 24,190 1,730,526
(Source: 1994 survey by TIS.pt)
OD matrix for the LMA: 18 Municipalities form 18 origins and destinations

NumTrips ALCOCHETEALMADA AMADORA AZAMBUJA BARREIRO CASCAIS LISBOA LOURES MAFRA MOITA MONTIJO OEIRAS PALMELA SEIXAL SESIMBRA SETUBAL SINTRA VFXIRA Out of LMA Total
ALCOCHETE 1,715 96 115 22 153 243 132 2,839 115 37 311 90 41 5,909
ALMADA 96 54,776 1,463 1,354 356 17,704 1,948 197 397 1,207 634 12,757 1,027 1,317 1,691 764 97,688
AMADORA 115 1,599 33,352 506 2,319 30,562 5,258 470 5,577 367 155 689 11,078 296 755 93,098
AZAMBUJA 22 8,119 120 271 422 43 20 156 740 2,540 12,452
BARREIRO 153 1,574 459 18,570 147 1,930 437 5,751 1,092 419 476 1,423 769 1,568 63 694 35,526
CASCAIS 392 2,517 147 88,325 18,063 1,627 1,131 120 124 13,391 186 244 462 8,599 221 405 135,955
LISBOA 265 17,075 32,883 352 1,629 18,339 347,766 50,378 3,542 1,295 838 35,239 969 9,701 1,441 3,481 32,114 6,909 4,310 568,527
LOURES 132 2,011 4,329 422 437 1,282 51,419 77,942 1,303 299 243 1,999 128 1,167 141 190 4,688 4,230 1,763 154,124
MAFRA 197 332 43 1,275 2,865 1,707 17,158 289 98 2,286 633 2,084 28,965
MOITA 397 5,608 250 910 299 12,410 1,057 240 1,158 334 273 1,227 242 270 24,674
MONTIJO 2,813 20 1,265 678 123 1,029 14,014 1,477 248 1,174 226 164 23,231
OEIRAS 1,649 5,480 419 13,922 34,673 2,048 184 240 38,484 234 512 367 516 7,029 752 924 107,430
PALMELA 115 458 703 186 811 128 1,158 1,307 120 15,201 733 810 7,509 337 661 30,236
SEIXAL 37 13,420 111 1,575 125 9,662 872 444 248 777 718 29,670 2,224 1,696 326 284 464 62,652
SESIMBRA 993 155 669 1,467 400 273 118 356 537 2,258 12,629 787 114 132 20,888
SETUBAL 311 1,284 544 1,787 462 2,858 288 1,172 1,075 538 7,253 1,887 1,040 60,649 520 1,424 83,090
SINTRA 90 1,480 10,833 185 140 8,855 33,017 4,452 2,082 119 6,476 232 326 114 401 98,093 804 1,773 169,475
VFXIRA 167 296 777 112 6,834 4,755 597 101 752 132 132 674 33,300 1,932 50,561
Out of LMA 83 1,002 1,076 2,540 291 403 4,930 1,812 2,152 122 527 1,238 707 457 202 1,540 1,788 2,077 3,232 26,180
Total 5,946 98,567 93,944 12,480 35,254 136,474 566,665 155,026 28,861 24,830 23,604 107,100 30,026 62,351 21,324 83,516 169,826 50,667 24,200 1,730,662

4-Step Model
TAZ
Increasing the number of smaller zones (III)
OD matrix for the LMA: aggregation of boroughs into 178 zones of the LMA
(part of the matrix)
ABELHEIRA
AFONSOEIRO
AJUDA ALCABIDECHE
ALCANTARA
ALCOCHETE
ALCOENTRE
ALFRAGIDE
ALGES ALHANDRA
ALMADAALMARGEM
ALTOBISPO
DOALVALADE
PINA ALVERCA AMEIXOEIRA
ANJOS APELAÇAO
ATALAIAATº ESTANQUEIRO
AVEIRASAZAMBUJA
BARCARENA
BARREIRO
BEATO BELAS BENFICABOBADELA
BRANDOABUCELAS
ABELHEIRA 86 20
AFONSOEIRO 287 72 77
AJUDA 751 754 311 344 86 215
ALCABIDECHE 6851 348 98 133 186 85 50
ALCANTARA 782 118 361 653 62 135 187 155 98 89
ALCOCHETE 126 1715 115 44
ALCOENTRE 791 90 90
ALFRAGIDE 190 313 234 115 1398 752 107 126 95 672 90 125
ALGES 227 98 788 707 743 202 444 73
ALHANDRA 512 444 34 161
ALMADA 86 133 107 3878 154 123 140 251 303
ALMARGEM BISPO 62 2379 156 203
ALTO DO PINA 135 253 461 266 725 102
ALVALADE 98 156 140 152 236 125
ALVERCA 670 4440 85 54
AMEIXOEIRA 102 105
ANJOS 374 121
APELAÇAO 62
ATALAIA 77 102 173
ATº ESTANQUEIRO 379
AVEIRAS 90 1865 1048
AZAMBUJA 90 161 959 2038
BARCARENA 80 223
BARREIRO 63 140 1691
BEATO 95 251 863 152 82 262 95
BELAS 138 128 754
BENFICA 20 335 85 102 717 214 204 203 102 322 102 290 120 95 138 2947 530
BOBADELA 90 137 133
BRANDOA 97 125 530 1343
BUCELAS 50 1097
BURACA 183 140 117 744 140 110 165 140
CACÉM 311 90 414 213 264 216 123 307 248 1757 536 170
CACHOEIRAS 23
CACILHAS 154 244 170
CALHANDRIZ 153
CAMARATE 215 193 217 128
CAMPO GRANDE 136 144 87 336 361 95 115 422 220 181 80 128 789 115 369
CAMPOLIDE 129 69 132 186 104 335 125 78 95 345 663 262
CANEÇAS 107 389 487
CANHA
CAPARICA 92 130 118 1245 121 155 101 204
CARCAVELOS 301 222 329 120 110 102 151
CARNAXIDE 223 98 392 532 689 31 169 145

4-Step Model
Total origins and destinations in the Lisbon

municipality – 3D view
Source: Martinez, L.; Viegas, JM.; Silva, E. in Transportation (2009) 36:581–599

4-Step Model
OD Matrix trips
Cells sorted in decreasing order of number of trips
Less than 30% of total

cells account for more
than 70% of total trips
surveyed

4-Step Model
TAZ Delineation Guidelines (I)

• Homogeneity
• Contiguity and convexity of zones
• Compactness of TAZs’ shapes

Problem
• Exclusiveness
– (no doughnuts or islands) of TAZ

4-Step Model
TAZ Delineation Guidelines (II)
• Uniqueness and completeness of TAZ
Problem
• Geographical precision (greater zones)
• Minimization of intra-zonal trips (smaller zones)

• Maximization of the statistical precision (smaller zones)
• Decision maker's preferences
• Equity in terms of trip generation
• Adjustment of TAZ boundaries to political, administrative or statistical
boundaries
4-Step Model
Differential and global contexts

• The 4 step model can be applied in different contexts
– Differential
• When a new land use is intended, for which the additional
generated traffic is estimated, in volume as well as in origins
/ destinations, modes and paths, checking on the resulting
saturation levels (transport and traffic impact studies)
– Global
• When the intention is to explain the traffic loads in the
system on the basis of the key factors of personal mobility,
and to assess how the performance of the transport system
may be improved in response to the evolution of the macro
variables (population, employment, income) and of the
drivers of mobility

4-Step Model
Generation Associated to Land-Use:

The generation / attraction model (I)
❑ The question is: knowing (or assuming to know) the land uses in a
given zone, how many trips will start [generation] or end [attraction] in
that zone, in the studied period (typically, morning peak or total of
the day) ?
❑ The mathematical expression used in virtually all cases is of the type
D( j ) = å [X ( j , k ).a(k )]
k
where j is the zone variable
k is the function (land-use) variable
X (j,k) is the value (ex, area => unit: square meters) of function k in
zone j
a(k) is the index of generation / attraction of trips per unit area of
function k and per time unit (typically over a day)
D(j) is the produced estimate of the total number of trips generated
/ attracted by zone j in that time unit
4-Step Model
The generation / attraction model (II)

❑ Tables have been compiled in various countries for the
attraction / generation indices by types of land uses
Ø The most complete tables are from the US, compiled in a volume
called “Trip Generation” (Institute of Transport Engineers) covering
more than 1000 types of functions
Ø Adjustments to the local area are always desirable
❒ When using a model in a global context, we should bear in
mind the applicability of each of the steps in the future
Ø Do not disaggregate land-uses too finely, as we cannot know their
future evolution in such a fine detail
Ø It is preferable to work with relatively few (8 to 12) land-use groups
as would be “housing”, “offices”, “daily shopping”, “occasional
shopping”, “schools”,” public administration open to general
public”, “industry and logistics” and similar

4-Step Model
Source: Trip Generation

4-Step Model
HOTEL “Conferences”
Source: Trip Generation

4-Step Model
The generation / attraction model (III)

❑ When studying the whole day, attraction and generation indices are
equal
Ø We may accept that the OD matrix is symmetrical
❑ In most studies the effort bears on attraction, associated to economic

functions whose promoters tend to ensure good access with motorized
modes
❑ If, besides incoming and outgoing flows, we also want to know parking
requirements we must also observe and record the durations of stay
associated with each type of land-use / economic activity
Ø And we should distinguish between demand segments
Ø One classification is: “workers”, “clients / visitors”, and “suppliers”
❒ One important aspect when evaluating the potential attraction of cars, it
is important to note that the overall attraction over a day does not
correspond to the sum of all attractions for all functions, since they do not
have their demand peaks at the same time

4-Step Model
Example of trips generated over a working day

in Lisbon (Bairro Alto)
Workers
Total number of trips/hr
Residents
Visitors
Suppliers
Total

4-Step Model
Example of trips generated over a working day

in Lisbon (Bairro Alto)
Pedestrians
Total number of trips/hr
Private car
Bus
Metro
Total

4-Step Model
The distribution model (I)

• After the generation / attraction model, we know one or both
sides of the O/D matrix (rows and/or columns)
• The Distribution model aims to fill the matrix cells based on the
total trips generated and/or attracted.
• In the simplest case, we know only one side, normally that of
attractions D(j)
• This is normally called the one constraint gravitational model (the
sum of trips per column in constrained to take the value obtained
in the 1st step)
• Thus the question is:
– Out of the total set of trips ending at zone j, how many started in each
zone i ?
– This question can be formulated in probability terms: for each trip ending
at j, what is the probability that it has started in i ?

4-Step Model
The distribution model (II)

• Principle: “the interaction between two locations declines with increasing
friction (distance, time, and cost) between them, but is positively
associated with the amount of activity at each location (Isard, 1956)”
Zone
D2
'
O/D 1 2 3 ... i 𝑂" = $ 𝑡"& “t12”
&()
Zone
1 t11 t12 t13 ... t1j O1 “t13” D2
Zone
2 t21 t22 t23 ... t2j O2 O1
“t1j”
3 t31 t32 t33 ... t3j O3
Zone
... ... ... ... ... ... ... Dj
i ti1 ti2 ti3 ... tij Oi ' '

𝐷& = $
'
𝑡"& D1 D2 D3 ... Dj 𝑇"&
𝑇"& = $ 𝐷& = $ 𝑂"
"() &() "()

4-Step Model
The distribution model (III)
q If we know the probabilities p(i | j), the flow t(i,j) will be

obtained by
𝑡 𝑖, 𝑗 = 𝐷 𝑗 ×𝑝 𝑖|𝑗
where i corresponds to the generation zone;
j corresponds to the attraction zone;
D(j) is the total trips attracted by zone j; and
P(i|j) is the probability that it has started in i for each trip
ending at j.

4-Step Model
The distribution model (IV)

❒ The mathematical expression initially used was that of Newton’s
gravitational model,
M(i).M( j)
F(i \ j) = G ×
r2
Where F is the magnitude of the gravitational force between the two point
masses,
G is the gravitational constant,
M(i) is the mass of the first point mass,
M(j) is the mass of the second point mass, and
€ r is the distance between the two point masses.
❒ But advantages have been found in changing some of its components

Ø Replace distance by “generalized cost”
Ø Let the power “free” as a parameter to be calibrated
Ø Replace the power function by an exponential function (avoiding infinity at
zero)

4-Step Model
The distribution model (V)

Impedance functions
Impedance (deterrence) function
3
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
C-2 exp(-0,5.c) exp(-0,01.c) exp(-0,3.c) c0,5exp(-0,1.c)

4-Step Model
The distribution model (V)

❒ The expression mostly used is
P(i \ j ) =
[M (i ). exp(- b .c(i, j ))]
å [M (k ).exp(- b .c(k , j ))]
k
with the b parameter subject to calibration (mostly by least squares)

❒ The calibration process aims to find the value of β and the
inputs for calibration are the generalized costs (e.g., average
travel distance) and the observed OD matrix with flows
Ø Caution in the calibration procedure to avoid “calibrating the
zero’s”

4-Step Model
The distribution model (VI)

• The mathematical expression in the denominator is the same as in
the numerator and it is independent of the zone i for which the
generation probability we want to estimate
– The value of the denominator depends only on j, and on its
accessibility generalized cost from the set of the k origin zones.
– It is thus a measure of attractiveness that we can designate as
B(j), where
1
B( j) =
∑[ M(k).exp(−β .c ( k, j )) ]
and k
P(i \ j) = M(i).B( j).exp(−β .c(i, j))

€
4-Step Model
The distribution model (VI)

❑ If we consider the case in which the two matrix sides are known,
i.e. the double constrained gravitational model, a separate filling

of the matrix from both rows or columns constraints leads to very
different results. Something more sophisticated is needed
❑ Any formulation allowing simultaneous consideration of the sum
constraints in both directions must preserve the gravitational

“spirit”, i.e. the proportionality to the product of masses and the
degradation of attraction with the increasing cost of accessibility
between zones

4-Step Model
The distribution model (VII)

❑ As the total number of trips generated O(i) and attracted D(j) by
each zone are known from the first step (trip generation), these will
be used as masses of the zones M(i) and M(j)
❑ A formulation of this type emerges
𝑡 𝑖, 𝑗 = 𝑓 𝑂 𝑖 . 𝐷 𝑗 . 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −𝛽. 𝑐 𝑖, 𝑗
With f such that the sum constraints are respected
∑& 𝑡 𝑖, 𝑗 = 𝑂 𝑖 ∑" 𝑡 𝑖, 𝑗 = 𝐷 𝑗

4-Step Model
The distribution model (VIII)

❑ The way to solve this is by creating two new variables, A(i) and B(j), similar
to the attractiveness B(j) found in the single-constrained formulation and
the gravity model is:
𝑡 𝑖, 𝑗 = 𝑂 𝑖 . 𝐴 𝑖 . 𝐷 𝑗 . 𝐵 𝑗 . 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −𝛽. 𝑐 𝑖, 𝑗
Where satisfaction of one of those constraints imposes
1
B( j) =
∑ [O(i).A(i).exp(−β .c(i, j))]
i
And the satisfaction of the other imposes
1
A(i) =
∑ [ D( j).B( j).exp(−β .c(i, j))]
€
❑ We see that the expressions for A(i) and B(j) invoke each other, thus
j
raising some difficulty to the calibration of the b parameter
€
4-Step Model
The distribution model (IX)

• The simplest way to calibrate the doubly-constrained model is to:
1. Define arbitrary values for b and the vector A (for example, b=0,5
and A(i)=1, for all zones i)
2. Compute B(j) for all zones j
3. Calibrate the optimal values of b and of the components of A (like if
it was a single-constrained model), obtaining revised estimates of B(j)
4. Based on those values of b and B(j), compute new values for A(i) for
all zones i, and compute B(j) in a new iteration,
5. Perform a new calibration of b , obtaining revised estimates of B(j),
now with the double-constraints
Ø B(j) depends on A(i) that depends on the B(j) of the previous
iteration
6. Repeat steps 4 and 5 until convergence (normally in few steps)
Ø Convergence criteria can be small changes of B(j) or A(i) and
poor improvements of correlation between observed and
estimated OD matrices

4-Step Model
The distribution model (X)

❑ The gravitational model is very simple to understand but has
some difficulties in reproducing reality, mainly due to the
following reasons:
Ø The reduction of attraction (i.e., impedance function) is by no
means identical to the various trip motives and social strata
Ø Using a single calibration b in the formula leads to poor
adjustments, although quite often the best possible in face of
available information
Ø Traveler's behavior is often influenced by non-contemporary
factors (usually past accumulated habits)
Ø Preservation of travel patterns that would not be rational in
view of the contemporary characteristics of the territory
Ø People know better some territories or parts of the network
or some actors in those territories
❒ In spite of these, it is by far the most used model for the distribution
step

4-Step Model
Bypassing The Generation and Distribution Steps in a

Differential Context
• To avoid including the calibration errors of the present situation in
the estimation of future traffic flows, applications of the 4 step
model in a differential context is performed differently:
– Use the analytical generation model to estimate the traffic
volumes corresponding to the changes planned on the land-use
dimension for each zone, obtaining the two boundaries of the
future matrix (total origins x total destinations)
– Expand/forecast the current O/D matrix through the Fratar or
Furness algorithms, to obtain the future O/D matrix based on
forecasted future boundaries but preserving the structure of the
present matrix
• These Fratar and Furness algorithms are similar and are easily applied
and interpreted
• In a global context, the full analytical process is applied, since we

want to test wider policy packages incidence on land-use and
transport supply measures
4-Step Model
Doubly Constrained Growth Factors

Furness model (I)
• When information is available on the growth in the number of trips
originating and terminating in each zone, we know that there will
be different growth rates for trips in and out of each zone and
consequently having two sets of growth factors for each zone.
• This implies that there are two constraints for that model and such
a model is called doubly constrained growth factor model.
• Furness has introduced balancing factors ai and bj as follows:
∗
𝑡"& = 𝑡"& ×𝑎" ×𝑏&

4-Step Model
Doubly Constrained Growth Factors

Furness model (II)
• A set of intermediate correction coefficients are calculated which are
then appropriately applied to cell entries in each row or column.
• After applying these corrections to say each row, totals for each
column are calculated and compared with the target values. If the
differences are significant, correction coefficients are calculated and
applied as necessary.
• Procedure:
1. Set 𝑏& = 1
2. With bj solve for ai to satisfy trip generation constraint
3. With ai solve for bj to satisfy trip attraction constraint.
4. Update matrix and check for errors.
5. Repeat steps 2 and 3 till convergence.
• The error is calculated as: 𝐸 = ∑ 𝑂" − 𝑂"∗ + ∑ 𝐷& − 𝐷&∗ , where * stands
for iterative calculations before convergence with forecasted Oi and
Dj
4-Step Model
Example of Furness method (I)

• Initial O/D matrix • Growth factors
1 2 3 4 5 6 TAZ gi gj
1 7877 4484 6812 7317 992 1805 1 1,05 1,06
2 457 1892 1965 4639 1004 4468 2 1,115 1,125
3 5688 869 1293 5184 7144 9076 3 0,94 0,92
4 9522 4782 8683 1928 6069 4238 4 1,04 1,07
5 2258 2432 2818 9476 1388 2203 5 0,98 0,95
6 5966 3366 5101 4606 2304 5724 6 1,17 1,13

4-Step Model
Example of Furness method (II)

• Initialization
1 2 3 4 5 6 Initial Sum gi Final sum
1 7877 4484 6812 7317 992 1805 29287 1,05 30751
2 457 1892 1965 4639 1004 4468 14425 1,115 16084
3 5688 869 1293 5184 7144 9076 29254 0,94 27499
4 9522 4782 8683 1928 6069 4238 35222 1,04 36631
5 2258 2432 2818 9476 1388 2203 20575 0,98 20164
6 5966 3366 5101 4606 2304 5724 27067 1,17 31668
162796,755
Initial
Sum 31768 17825 26672 33150 18901 27514 155830
gj 1,06 1,125 0,92 1,07 0,95 1,13
Final sum 33674 20053 24538 35471 17956 31091 162782,715 14,04
Error
Convergence tolerance below: 2%

4-Step Model
Example of Furness method (III)

• 1ST Step – Correct lines
∗
𝑡"& = 𝑡"& ×𝑎" ×𝑏& , where ai=1
1 2 3 4 5 6 Sum
1 8271 4708 7153 7683 1042 1895 30752
2 510 2110 2191 5172 1119 4982 16084
3 5347 817 1215 4873 6715 8531 27498
4 9903 4973 9030 2005 6312 4408 36631
5 2213 2383 2762 9286 1360 2159 20163
6 6980 3938 5968 5389 2696 6697 31668
coefs. for
Sum 33224 18929 28319 34408 19244 28672 the next
iteration
Correction Coef. 1,014 1,059 0,866 1,031 0,933 1,084
Error 1,4% 5,9% 13,4% 3,1% 6,7% 8,4%
Errors bigger than tolerance

4-Step Model
Example of Furness method (IV)

• 1st Step – Correct columns
Correct.
1 2 3 4 5 6 Sum Coef. Error
1 8383 4988 6198 7920 972 2055 30516 1,008 0,8%
2 516 2235 1898 5332 1045 5402 16428 0,979 2,1%
3 5419 865 1053 5023 6266 9251 27877 0,986 1,4%
4 10037 5269 7825 2067 5889 4779 35866 1,021 2,1%
5 2243 2525 2393 9573 1269 2341 20344 0,991 0,9%
6 7075 4172 5171 5555 2515 7262 31750 0,997 0,3%
Sum 33673 20054 24538 35470 17956 31090

coefs. for
the next
“Some” errors bigger than
iteration
tolerance

4-Step Model
Example of Furness method (V)

• 2nd Step – Correct lines (again)
1 2 3 4 5 6 Sum
1 8448 5026 6245 7981 979 2071 30750
2 506 2188 1859 5221 1023 5289 16086
3 5346 854 1039 4955 6181 9126 27501
4 10251 5381 7992 2111 6015 4881 36631
5 2223 2502 2372 9488 1258 2320 20163
6 7057 4161 5158 5541 2509 7243 31669
coefs. for
Sum 33831 20112 24665 35297 17965 30930 the next
iteration
Correction Coef. 0,995 0,997 0,995 1,005 0,999 1,005
Error 0,5% 0,3% 0,5% 0,5% 0,1% 0,5%
Errors smaller than tolerance

4-Step Model
Example of Furness method (IV)

• 2nd Step – Correct columns (again)
1 2 3 4 5 6 Sum Error
1 8408 5011 6213 8020 979 2082 30713 0,1%
2 503 2182 1849 5246 1022 5316 16118 0,2%
3 5321 851 1034 4980 6178 9173 27537 0,1%
4 10204 5365 7951 2122 6012 4907 36561 0,2%
5 2213 2495 2360 9535 1257 2332 20192 0,1%
6 7024 4149 5131 5568 2507 7281 31660 0,0%
Sum 33673 20053 24538 35471 17955 31091

“Some” errors bigger than
tolerance

4-Step Model
Bibliography
• Ortuzar, Juan de Dios and Willumsen, Luis, Modelling Transport, 3rd
edition,, Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2001 – chapters 4, 5, 6 and 10

4 Step Model: Prof. Responsável: Filipe Moura

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4-Step Model

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 1

Transport Demand Modelling

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 2

Transport System (Unimodal or Multimodal)

NETWORK (Supply) TRIPS (Demand)

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 3

The 4 Step Model (I)

• Conceived and initially applied in the US in the early 60’s, to

• Mostly applied for trips in the morning peak period

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 4

The 4 Step Model (II)

• Computational and conceptual simplicity of the 4 step model are

• The 4 steps correspond to 4 sub-models, each of which related to a

2– Fraction for the Where To estimate the

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 6

Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ)

• Geographic Information is lost in the process of substituting (concentrating)

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 7

TAZ, OD Matrix, Links, Nodes, Centroids

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 8

Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ)

• If loss of information was only geographical, the solution would be easy:

• This leads to two problems:

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 9

1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 3 4 5 6

5 6 1 t11 t121 t16

same error level 5

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 10

OD matrix for the LMA: 18 Municipalities form 18 origins and destinations

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 11

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 12

Total origins and destinations in the Lisbon

Source: Martinez, L.; Viegas, JM.; Silva, E. in Transportation (2009) 36:581–599

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 13

Less than 30% of total

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 14

TAZ Delineation Guidelines (I)

• Contiguity and convexity of zones

• Compactness of TAZs’ shapes

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 15

TAZ Delineation Guidelines (II)

• Uniqueness and completeness of TAZ

• Minimization of intra-zonal trips (smaller zones)

Differential and global contexts

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 17

Generation Associated to Land-Use:

The generation / attraction model (II)

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 19

Source: Trip Generation

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 20

Source: Trip Generation

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 21

The generation / attraction model (III)

❑ In most studies the effort bears on attraction, associated to economic

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 22

Example of trips generated over a working day

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 23

Example of trips generated over a working day

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 24

The distribution model (I)

SLTS - Simulation of Land-Use/Transport Systems Filipe Moura - fmoura@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 25

The distribution model (II)