Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
• Supply Development
–Farmed Salmonids
–Wild-caught Salmon
• Market Development
– All Salmonids
– Farmed Atlantic Salmon
• Outlook
Source: NPAFC, ADFG, DFO, Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries
VINRO/TINRO,
MAFF, Kontali
The first take-away
A. Declining supply growth
+ 24 % + 7,7 % + 3,7 %
30 0 0
CAGR CAGR CAGR
250 0
10 0 0 tonnes WFE
20 0 0
150 0
10 0 0
50 0
Source: FHL, Nasdaq, Urner Barry Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries
The second take-away
B. A shift in price-level vs. other proteins
Source: SNM, France – Retail-prices Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries
* Price-basket: Salmon vs. Meat vs.
Other fish
Shortage in supply → Strong profitablity
Estimated Profits* – Major Farmed Salmonid Regions
* Combined – For Norway, Chile, Scotland / Ireland, North America & Faroe
Islands Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries
Source: Kontali Analyse
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Wild & Farmed Salmonids (Ex. Portion Trout)
Main Markets 2017 – By Species
Source: Various Trade Data, Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries
elaboration Kontali Analyse
Markets; US Export Value – Wild Salmon
Increased dependency on China (Re-processing ++)
Source: US Census
Markets; Russian Export Value – Wild Salmon
Share to China – Higher than for the US
Source: NPAFC, ADFG, DFO, VINRO, Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries
MAFF, estimats by Kontali Analyse
Large Rainbow Trout– Harvest Estimates per country
25 %
20 %
15 %
Year-over-Year Growth
10 %
5%
0%
-5 %
-10 %
-15 %
-20 %
Mar
Mar
May
Mar
Mar
May
Mar
May
Mar
May
May
May
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E
EUROPE YTD:
AMERICAS YTD:
+ 75 000 tonnes
+8%
Source: Kontali Analyse, Aquabench Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries
Where could future supply growth come from ?
+ 1,7 %
+ 24 % + 7,7 % + 3,7 %
30 0 0
CAGR CAGR CAGR
250 0
10 0 0 tonnes WFE
20 0 0
150 0
10 0 0
50 0
Thank you.