CAUSE ANALYSIS OF THE CO2 EMISSION IN MOST COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD IN 2007

Continuos Monitoring 2 For The Course

Méthodologie de la recherche en gestion

University of Neuchâtel
Professor Giuseppe Melfi PhD
Semester autumn of 2010

By: Adriana Coba

adriana.coba@unine.ch

Neuchâtel, 01 of November of 2010

 CAUSE ANALYSIS OF THE CO2 EMISSION IN MOST COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD IN 2007

This report pretends to demonstrate that exist a correlation between CO2 emissions by country1 (dependent
variable2) and other factors (Independent variables) in 20073, which are:
 Electric power consumption4
 Transport sector gasoline fuel consumption per capita5
 Fossil fuel energy consumption6
 Energy production7

Figure 1, Shows the distribution of the CO2 Emissions per capita, where the average is 6,44 Metric-tons per
capita, with a standard destination of 8,05. There are some countries extremely far away for the average,
as Qatar, with emissions over 55 metric-tons per capita, or Democratic Republique of Congo with less than
0,04 metric-tons per capita, as it can see in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Distribution of the CO2 Emissions in 132 Countries of the world

Porcentage of Countries

Data Source: WorldBank (http://data.worldbank.org/)

Data Source: WorldBank (http://data.worldbank.org/)
Elaborated: Coba Elaborated: Coba

Then, to prove the above argument (Thesis8) it has been used linear regression methods. With SPSS9, the
method used to choose the variables was ascendant: This for obtain, in the first step, the explanatory
variables that can have more correlation with the dependent. Then the following results were obtained:

1
CO2 Emissions: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC (27.10.2010)
2
“The independent variable is the variable that is varied or manipulated by the researcher, and the dependent variable is the
response that is measured”:
University of North Carolina, http://www.uncp.edu/home/collierw/ivdv.htm (29.10.2010)
3
2007 is the year of study, because is the last year with a complete range of statistics in the data base of World Bank.
4
Electric power consumption: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC, (27.10.2010)
5
Transport sector gasoline fuel consumption: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.ROD.SGAS.PC (27.10.2010)
6
Fossil fuel energy consumption: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.COMM.FO.ZS (27.10.2010)
7
Energy production: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.EGY.PROD.KT.OE (27.10.2010)
Table 1: Variables Included and excluded in the models - ascendant approach

Variables introduites/supprimées Variables exclues

Modèle Variables introduites Méthode Corréla Statistiques de
Bêta
1 Indicator: Transport Ascendante (critère Modèle t Sig. tion colinéarité
dans
sector gasoline fuel : Probabilité de F partielle Tolérance
consumption per pour introduire <= 1 Indicator: Electric power ,091a 1,112 ,268 ,097 ,466
capita (liters) ,050) consumption (kWh per capita)
2 Indicator: Fossil fuel Ascendante (critère Indicator: Fossil fuel energy ,235a 4,117 ,000 ,341 ,854
energy consumption : Probabilité de F consumption (% of total)
(% of total) pour introduire <= Indicator: Energy production -,076 a -1,298 ,197 -,114 ,902
,050) (kt of oil equivalent)
2 Indicator: Electric power ,144b 1,853 ,066 ,162 ,454
consumption (kWh per capita)
It demonstrates that the variables that Indicator: Energy production -,085 b -1,540 ,126 -,135 ,901
(kt of oil equivalent)
are more correlated with CO2 emission a. Valeurs prédites dans le modèle : (constantes), Indicator: Transport sector
per capita are “Transport sector gasoline fuel consumption per capita (liters)
b. Valeurs prédites dans le modèle : (constantes), Indicator: Transport sector
gasoline fuel consumption per capita gasoline fuel consumption per capita (liters), Indicator: Fossil fuel energy
consumption (% of total)
(liters)” y Fossil fuel energy
consumption (% of total). It is totally consistent with the EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)
statement: "The largest source of CO2 emissions globally is the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil
and gas in power plants, automobiles, industrial facilities and other sources"10.

Table 2: Errors and adjustments of each model

Récapitulatif des modèles
The data for each model can be seen in table 2. R-deux Erreur standard
Analyzing the second model, it can be noted that Modèle R R-deux ajusté de l'estimation
a
1 ,770 ,593 ,590 5,1618053
there is a chance of 64% (R2 = 0.64011) that the
2 ,800b ,640 ,634 4,8716084
high level of per capita CO2 emissions, can be a. Valeurs prédites : (constantes), Indicator: Transport
explained by "Transport sector gasoline fuel sector gasoline fuel consumption per capita (liters)
b. Valeurs prédites : (constantes), Indicator: Transport
consumption per capita" and "Fossil fuel energy
sector gasoline fuel consumption per capita (liters),
consumption" Unlike first model, which shows Indicator: Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total)
59% of R .2

Also, the error which may occur in the estimate is lower in model 2 (4.871) than in first model (5.161).

Table 3: ANOVA table and data for equation, for the selected model
ANOVA
Somme des Moyenne
Modèle carrés ddl des carrés D Sig.
2 Régression 5442,425 2 2721,212 114,662 ,000b
Résidu 3061,501 129 23,733
Total 8503,926 131
a. Valeurs prédites : (constantes), Indicator: Transport sector gasoline fuel consumption per capita (liters)
b. Valeurs prédites : (constantes), Indicator: Transport sector gasoline fuel consumption per capita (liters),
Indicator: Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total)

8
“Thesis: a proposition stated, or put forward for consideration”: Dictionary.com,
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/thesis (30.10.2010)
9
SPSS: Data Mining, Statistical Analysis Software, Predictive analysis Software developed by IBM: IBM, www.spss.com,
(31.10.2010)
10
Carbon Dioxide: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/co2_human.html, (29.10.2010)
11
According to Steel, R. G. D. and Torrie R2 is “the proportion of variability in a data set that is accounted for by the statistical
model”.
Table 3 (Contd): ANOVA table and data for equation, for the selected model
Coefficients
Coefficients non Coefficients
standardisés standardisés
Modèle A Erreur standard Bêta t Sig.
2 (Constante) -3,072 1,183 -2,596 ,011
Indicator: Transport 24,762 2,081 ,680 11,898 ,000
sector gasoline fuel
consumption per capita
(liters)
Indicator: Fossil fuel ,069 ,017 ,235 4,117 ,000
energy consumption (%
of total)

The value 0.000 in significant (ANOVA table, Colum Sig) indicates a significant relationship between the
dependent variable and all independent variables, being able to say, that to the plane defined by the
equation offers a setting to the point cloud. Then, the linear equation is:
CO2 Transport sector gasoline Fossil fuel energy
emissions -3,072 24,762 fuel consumption per capita 0,069 consumption
(metric tons per (liters)
capita)
(% of total)

Figure 2: Graphical representation of the relation between "Transport sector gasoline fuel consumption per capita", "Fossil fuel
energy consumption" and CO2 emissions.

Then, based in the above mentioned, and in the figure 2, is important to mention that:
- In the Countries, the CO2 emissions are mostly caused by the fossil fuel combustion (nearly 64%)
despite that, is not only the fossil combustion the only cause (because the proportion is still lower
to be considerate as the single cause, it has be more than 75%) there are other causes, like the
changes in land use and, particularly, deforestation12.
- The “Electric power consumption” and the “Energy production” are not determinant variables for
CO2 emissions.
- Qatar is an aberrant data, compared to the rest of the countries (It has the major Cook distance:
0,7703). As it has been mentioned in the first part of this report,
- United States of America, has the most consumption per capita of gasoline (Leverage distance:
0,179)

12
Greenpeace: http://www.greenpeace.org/espana/campaigns/energ-a/causas/di-xido-de-carbono, (30.10.2010)
 BIBLOGRAPHY

Steel, R. G. D. and Torrie, J. H., Principles and Procedures of Statistics, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1960, pp.
187, 287.

Carbon Dioxide: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/co2_human.html, (Consulted 29.10.2010)

Dictionary.com: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/thesis, (Consulted 30.10.2010)
Greenpeace: http://www.greenpeace.org/espana/campaigns/energ-a/causas/di-xido-de-carbono,
(Consulted 30.10.2010)
SPSS: www.spss.com,(Consulted 31.10.2010)
University of North Carolina: http://www.uncp.edu/home/collierw/ivdv.htm, (Consulted 29.10.2010)
World bank: http://data.worldbank.org/ (Consulted 25.10.2010)