Random Samples and Methods for Statistical Sampling

Random sampling uses the power of statistics to make an inference (reach a conclusion) about a
production lot of parts. However, if the sampling is not performed properly the conclusion is
worthless. For example, if the only parts checked, are the first 50 parts produced on a 250 piece
order, this is not a valid statistical sample. The sample size is correct but the method of choosing
the samples is not correct.
The samples are invalid as a statistical sample because we did not pick them randomly from the
entire 250 piece order. For a sample to be a true random sample, the parts must be chosen from
the entire lot. This is the source of statistical power and what gives the statistical random sample
its strength.
Statistical sampling is based on mathematical probability and makes an inference about a
population. This means that by using calculations based on mathematical probability we can
reach a conclusion about a lot of parts; an order of parts; or a population of parts - but we must
sample correctly. Without proper sampling the results cannot make an accurate inference.

We can understand random sampling better by thinking of two basic types of statistics:
Descriptive Statistics and Inferential Statistics.

Descriptive Statistics record the data of interest for every part, or every person, or every flight,
or every game. Whatever someone finds of interest. For example, if I'm interested in the number
of people who work in agriculture in Indiana I can count every person and learn there are
129,000 people.
If all 129,000 agree to grow at least 10 pounds of corn, and we want to learn if the goal has
been met, I can interview a sample size of people. If I sample the correct number of people, and
every person has an equal chance of being chosen, I can be mathematically certain within an
Acceptable Quality Level (AQL) that the information represents the entire population. This is
called Inferential Statistics.
To continue the example let's say we want an Acceptable Quality Level of 1.0. This represents a
99% mathematical probability that our results will represent the entire 129,000 person
population. So how many people do we sample? According to the Trelleborg India Sampling
Plan SP-01(1) the number is 500. But if we find even 1 person that could not grow 10 pounds of
corn I can be fairly certain there are others. And to know exactly how many - I need to interview
all 129,000 people.
Inferential statistics, acceptable quality levels, mathematical probability, and descriptive
statistics are terms and concepts we use when we perform random sampling. The chart below
will further illustrate the probability of finding defective product.

Inferential Statistics
Acceptable Quality Level Mathematical Probability of Determining Whether
Nonconforming Parts are Present in a Lot
1.0 99%
4.0 96%
6.0 94%
1- In accordance with ANSI/ASQ Z1.4-2008 Sampling Procedures

C.Peters
11/15/2018
 Random Samples and Methods for Statistical Sampling

How to Perform Random Sampling

To use random sampling effectively there are three methods.
Method 1) Random sample the entire lot at the end of the run
Method 2) The Three Tray Method
Method 3) Use a combination of Method 1 and Method 2.

Method 1- Random sample the entire lot at the end of the run
Operators inspect the first piece at job setup and tool changes to determine compliance to the
specification. The parts are inspected at the end of the run based on the lot size and sample size.
Data for Method 1
Example:
Lot Size = 1500 parts
AQL = 1.0
Sample Size = 125 parts
Accept = 0 Nonconforming parts
Reject = 1 Nonconforming part. Inspect parts 100% for the nonconforming specification.
Risk: The entire run is nonconforming

Method 2 - The Three Tray Method

Operators inspect the first piece at job setup and tool changes to determine compliance to the
specification. They also inspect the parts during the entire run to ensure parts remain within
specification. Parts must be inspected during the entire production run and these parts are
used as the random samples for the sample size.
Risk: Incorrect Sampling - Parts must be sampled during the entire production run or the sample
is worthless.

The Three Tray Method: The three tray method will reduce the quantity requiring 100%
inspection if a nonconforming part is found.

Tray 1 Tray 2 Tray 3

Parts Directly Off the Parts Being Collected for Inspected Parts with
Machine a Sample Size Inspection Zero Nonconformances

Tray 1 - collects parts directly from the machine.

Tray 2 - is used to collect a calculated number of parts for sample inspection. If zero
nonconformances are found in Tray 2 the parts can be put into Tray 3. If one (1) nonconforming
part is found in Tray 2 all parts require 100% inspection of the nonconforming feature.
Tray 3 - consists of inspected parts with zero defects found during sampling inspection and parts
that were inspected 100% after a defect was found.

C.Peters
11/15/2018
 Random Samples and Methods for Statistical Sampling

Sample Calculations for Method 2 - The Three Tray Method

Example Answers
Lot Size = 1500 parts
AQL = 1.0
Total Sample Size = 125 parts
Number of Times the Lot is Divided = 15 times
Tray 2 Quantity = 100 parts
Tray 2 Sample Size = 8.33 parts (Round up to 9 parts)
Accept = 0 Nonconforming parts
Reject = 1 Nonconforming part. Inspect all Tray 2 parts 100% for the nonconforming feature.

Example: Answer These Questions and Perform the Calculations for Each Run
Question 1: How many parts am I willing to inspect 100% if I find a nonconforming part
in Tray 2?
Example Answer: I'm willing to inspect 100 parts 100%
Question 2: How many times does that divide the lot?
Example Answer 2: 15 times
Calculation 1: Lot Size / Parts willing to inspect 100% = Number of times the lot is divided
1500 / 100 = 15 times

Question 3: How many parts do I inspect from the 100 pieces in Tray 2?
Example Answer: 8.33 parts (Round up to 9)
Calculation 2: Sample Size / Times the Lot is Divided = Number of parts sampled from Tray 2
125 / 15 = 8.33 parts (Round up to 9)
(Calculation 3: Double Check Calculation - 8.33 x 15 = 124.95 / 9 x 15= 135)

Method 3
Parts are inspected with Method 2 during the production run. A sample size of the tightest
toleranced feature is inspected at the end of the run. This method provides the highest assurance
of conforming product.

C.Peters
11/15/2018