3/21/2019

KNS2723 NUMERICAL
M E T H O D S A N D S T AT I S T I C S

WEEK8: PROBABILITY

ABDUL AZIM ABDULLAH

CIVIL ENGINEERING, UNIMAS

WEEK 8: CONTENTS
8.1 Events, Sample Spaces and Probability
8.2 Axioms of Probability
8.3 Permutations
8.4 Combination rule
8.5 Unions and Intersections
8.6 Complementary Events
8.7 The Additive Rule and Mutually Exclusive Events
8.8 Conditional Probability
8.9 The Multiplicative Rule and Independent Events
8.10 Bayes’ Rule

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8.1 EVENTS, SAMPLE SPACES AND PROBABILITY

• Probability?
• Chance? Odds?
• If a fair coin is tossed, H and T have the same chance of occurring
• We can say “The probability of observing a head is 50%”
• Or “The odds of seeing a head are 50:50”
• The probability of a sample point is a number between 0 to 1 which measures
the likelihood that the outcome will occur when the experiment is performed.
• For example if we tossed a fair coin, the probability of getting head is 0.5 or
1/2 and the probability of getting tail is also 0.5.
• This number can only be observed if the coin-toss experiment is done in a
very long series of repetition (Law of Large Number)

8.1 EVENTS, SAMPLE SPACES AND PROBABILITY

N = 1500

N = 25

Proportion of heads in N tosses of a coin

http://digfir-published.macmillanusa.com/stats_applet/stats_applet_10_prob.html

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8.1 EVENTS, SAMPLE SPACES AND PROBABILITY

• EXPERIMENT – process of observation that leads to a single outcome that
cannot be predicted with certainty
• OBSERVATION or MEASUREMENT – the result we see from the experiment
• Statistical experiment can be almost any act of observation, as long as the
outcome is uncertain
Recording an internet user’s preference for a Web browser
Recording a voter’s opinion on an important political issue
Measuring the amount of dissolved oxygen in a polluted river
Observing the level of anxiety of a test taker
Counting the number of errors in an inventory
Observing the fraction of insects killed by a new insecticide

8.1 EVENTS, SAMPLE SPACES AND PROBABILITY

• Consider another simple experiment consisting of tossing a dice and observing
the number on the up face
• Six possible outcomes
1. Observe a 1
2. Observe a 2
3. Observe a 3
4. Observe a 4
5. Observe a 5
6. Observe a 6
• These basic possible outcomes of an experiment are called SAMPLE POINT

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EXAMPLE 1: LISTING SAMPLE POINTS FOR A COIN

TOSSING EXPERIMENT
Two coins are tossed and their up faces are recorded. List all the sample points for this
experiment.
Four sample points:
1. Observe HH
2. Observe HT
SAMPLE SPACE
Solution 3. Observe TH
4. Observe TT

SAMPLE SPACE – collection of all sample points

Venn diagram – graphical representation of a

Tree diagram for the coin-tossing experiment sample space

EXPERIMENTS AND THEIR SAMPLE SPACES

Venn diagram

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EXPERIMENTS AND THEIR SAMPLE SPACES

Venn diagram

8.1 EVENTS, SAMPLE SPACES AND PROBABILITY

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EXAMPLE 2: SAMPLE POINT PROBABILITIES

Going Green is the term used to describe water conservation programs (WCP) at hotels and
motels. Many hotels now offer their guess the option of participating in the program by reusing
towels and bed linens. Kuching Water Board (KWB) reports that 70% of the hotel in Kuching
participate in the WCP. Suppose you randomly select on hotel from a registry of all hotels in
Kuching, what is the probability the hotel participate or not participate in the WCP.

Solution:
There are two sample points in the sample space for this experiment

Based on KWB report, we can reasonably approx. P(C) = 0.7 and P(N) = 0.3

EXAMPLE 3: PROBABILITY OF A COLLECTION OF

SAMPLE POINTS
A fair dice is tossed and the up face is observed. If the face is EVEN, you win RM1. Otherwise,
you lose RM1. What is the probability that you win?

Solution:
Sample space for this experiment has six sample points, S{1,2,3,4,5,6}
Each sample points has the probability of 1/6 since the dice is fair
Even number will occur if the dice rolls 2, 4 or 6
A collection of sample points is called an EVENT, let say event A is getting even number
The probability of event A is the sum of the probabilities of the sample points in event A
P(A) = 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/2

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EXAMPLE 4: PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

8.1 EVENTS, SAMPLE SPACES AND PROBABILITY

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EXAMPLE 5: APPLYING THE FIVE STEPS

EXAMPLE 5: APPLYING THE FIVE STEPS

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8.2 AXIOMS OF PROBABILITY

1) P(A) ≥ 0 ; A is an event
2) P(S) = 1
3) If A and B are mutually exclusive, A ∩ B = ∅, then

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) +P(B)

8.3 PERMUTATIONS
• A permutation is any particular arrangement of r objects which are selected
from a set of n distinct objects, where r ≤ n.
• Two types of permutation
a) Repetition is allowed: when we have n things to choose from….we
have n choices each time.
When choosing r of them, the permutations are:

n X n X … (r times) = nr

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8.3 PERMUTATIONS
b) Where repetition is not allowed: in this case, we have to reduce the
number of available choices each time. The formula to determine the number
of permutations is:

𝑁𝑃
𝑛!
𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !

EXAMPLE 6: PERMUTATIONS

What is the number of ways of arranging two letters selected from

letters A, B, C and D? Given that,
(a) Repetition is allowed
(b) Repetition is not allowed
(c) If only one letter is selected and repetition is not allowed?
(d) If three letters is selected and repetition is not allowed?
(e) If all four letters is selected and repetition is not allowed?

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EXAMPLE 7: EXAMINATION ROOMS

A doctor has three examination rooms. There are six patients in the
waiting room. In how many different ways can the patients be
assigned to the examination rooms?

EXAMPLE 8: PERMUTATIONS
Given there are six digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.
(a) Determine the number of four-digit numbers that can be formed
using the digits given if repetition is allowed.
(b) Determine the number of four-digit numbers that can be formed
using the digits given if no repetition is allowed.
(c) How many four-digit numbers greater than 4000 can be formed
using the digits given without repetition?

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8.3 PERMUTATIONS
Given n objects of which p are alike, q are alike and r are alike, the
number of permutations can be computed using the formula

𝑛!
𝑝! 𝑞! 𝑟!

EXAMPLE 9
How many different permutations can be formed from the word
PROBABILITY?

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8.4 COMBINATIONS

NC
r

!
NC
r =
! !

𝑟! 𝑛−𝑟 !

EXAMPLE 10: COMBINATIONS RULE

There are 12 people entering a room where there are only 10 chairs.
How many ways can two people be chosen to remain standing?

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EXAMPLE 11: COMBINATIONS RULE

EXAMPLE 12: COMBINATIONS RULE

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8.5 UNIONS AND INTERSECTIONS

8.5 UNIONS AND INTERSECTIONS

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EXAMPLE 13: PROBABILITIES OF UNIONS AND

INTERSECTIONS

EXAMPLE 14: FINDING PROBABILITIES FROM A

TWO-WAY TABLE

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EXAMPLE 14: FINDING PROBABILITIES FROM A

TWO-WAY TABLE

8.6 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS

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8.6 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS

EXAMPLE 15: PROBABILITY OF A

COMPLIMENTARY EVENT

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8.7 THE ADDITIVE RULE AND MUTUALLY

EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

∪ = union = or

∩ = intersection = and

EXAMPLE 16: ADDITIVE RULE

Let x = {3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15}
If A is ‘an odd number’ and B is a ‘multiple of five’, find P(A ∪ B)

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EXAMPLE 17: ADDITIVE RULE

In a Civil Engineering course, 90% of the students passed Strength of Materials,
95% of the students passed Math 2, and 88% passed both Strength of Materials
and Math 2. A student is selected at random.
(a) What is the probability that the student passed Strength of Materials or
Math 2?
(b) What is the probability that the student passed neither Strength of
Materials nor Math 2?

EXAMPLE 18: ADDITIVE RULE

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8.7 THE ADDITIVE RULE AND MUTUALLY

EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

EXAMPLE 19: MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

There are 25 students in a class. Five of them scored A and 10 of them scored B
while the others scored C for Calculus. If a student is selected at random, what
is the probability that the selected student scored A or B in Calculus?

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EXAMPLE 20: MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

8.8 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

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EXAMPLE 21: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

FORMULA

EXAMPLE 22: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IN A

TWO-WAY TABLE

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EXAMPLE 22: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IN A

TWO-WAY TABLE

EXAMPLE 23: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IN A

TWO-WAY TABLE 2

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EXAMPLE 23: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IN A

TWO-WAY TABLE 2

8.9 THE MULTIPLICATIVE RULE AND INDEPENDENT

EVENTS

The multiplicative rule above only can be used for non-independent

events

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EXAMPLE 24: MULTIPLICATIVE RULE

An English class consists of 12 male and 18 female students. Three of the male
students and five of the female students are non-bumiputras. A student is
randomly selected. Find the:
(a) Probability of selecting a non-bumiputra student
(b) Probability of selecting a male student given that the student is a non-
bumiputra
(c) Probability of selecting either a male or a non-bumiputra student

EXAMPLE 25: MULTIPLICATIVE RULE

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EXAMPLE 26: APPLYING MULTIPLICATIVE RULE

8.9 THE MULTIPLICATIVE RULE AND

INDEPENDENT EVENTS

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EXAMPLE 27: CHECKING FOR INDEPENDENCE

8.9 THE MULTIPLICATIVE RULE AND

INDEPENDENT EVENTS

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EXAMPLE 28: CHECKING FOR INDEPENDENCE 2

G
G
Refer to slide no. 48

8.10 BAYES’S RULE

Converting an unknown conditional probability, say, P(B|A), to one involving a
known conditional probability, say, P(A|B).

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EXAMPLE 29: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY VS

BAYES’S RULE

EXAMPLE 29: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY VS

BAYES’S RULE
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THANK YOU

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