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Housing Market
Update
Monthly Sales and
Price Statistics
April 2019
Sales Had Smallest YTY Decline since July 2018
700,000
California, April 2019 Sales: 396,760 Units, -7.3% YTD, -4.8% YTY
600,000
Apr-18: Apr-19:
416,750 396,090
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
20%
10%
YoY % chg.
0% -1.0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-16
May-17
May-18
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
*Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
4
So. California Sales Still Down
but Began to Trend Up
YoY % chg. So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%
30%
20%
10%
-1.2%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
20%
10%
0% -0.4%
-10%
-20%
-30%
*Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
6
Sales Up in Mid-Priced Ranges
$2,000k+ 4.3%
$600,000
$500,000 T: Feb-09
$245,230
$400,000 -59% from
peak
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
$500,000
$400,000
Median Price
Apr-18: Apr-19:
$476,010 $470,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Jan-05
Nov-05
Feb-07
Jan-10
Nov-10
Feb-12
Jan-15
Nov-15
Feb-17
Sep-06
Sep-11
Sep-16
Jun-05
May-18
Jul-07
Dec-07
Jul-12
Dec-12
May-08
Oct-08
Jun-10
Oct-13
Jul-17
Dec-17
Jun-15
Oct-18
Apr-06
Mar-09
May-13
Aug-09
Apr-11
Mar-14
Aug-14
Apr-16
Mar-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
10
CA Median Price (Existing SFH)
Month-to-Month % Chg
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
12
Sales Price -to-List Price Continued
to Climb from Prior Month
Apr-18:
April 2019: 98.9%, +0.4% MTM, -1.1% YTY 100.0%
Apr-19:
98.9%
100%
98%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio
96%
94%
92%
90%
70
60
DAYS ON MARKET
50
40
30
20
10
16.0
April 2018: 3.2 Months; April 2019: 3.4 Months
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
30%
20%
10.8%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
20% 18.8%
16.1% 16.3%
10.8%
10% 8.6%
5.7%
0%
-0.3%
-10%
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take
to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining
inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
“Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum
by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
18
Active Listings Increased in
All Regions
Apr-18 Apr-19
30,000
27,833
25,562
25,000
20,000
Active Listings
15,000
9,165 9,801
10,000
7,220
5,338
5,000
2,423 2,581
0
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
30%
Year-to-Year % Chg
20%
10% 8.9%
6.9% 6.5%
0%
-1.0% -1.2% -0.4%
-4.1%
-10%
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
2
1
0
Under $300- $500- $750K-$1M $1-$1.25M $1.25- $1.5-$2M $2-$3M $3M + Total
$300K $500K $750K $1.5M
Apr-18 Apr-19
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
2018 2019
YTY% Chg.
10%
3%
5%
2%
0%
1%
-5%
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jul-18
Oct-18
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
0%
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-15
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-5%
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Two Months in a Row
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Price Growth
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Mortgage Payment Declined
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Mortgage Pmt Growth
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Mar-19
Apr-19
24
page
YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales
0%
2%
4%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Pending Sales Growth Dipped
Mar-18
but Still Improved from Last Year
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales
Mar-19
Apr-19
25
page
Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile
10
0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
Apr-18 Apr-19
101.5%
101.0%
100.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
100.0%
99.6%
99.5%
99.0% 98.9%
98.5%
98.0%
97.5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Apr-18 Apr-19
30%
YTY% Chg. in Price
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jul-18
Oct-18
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Listing Price Sales Price
10%
YTY% Chg. in Price
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Sep-09
Jan-10
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
May-17
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-18
Listing Price Sales Price
10/1/2011
10/1/2012
10/1/2013
10/1/2014
10/1/2015
10/1/2016
10/1/2017
10/1/2018
1/1/2010
4/1/2010
7/1/2010
1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011
1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012
1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013
1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014
1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015
1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016
1/1/2017
4/1/2017
7/1/2017
1/1/2018
4/1/2018
7/1/2018
1/1/2019
4/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction
6% -0.05%
4% -0.10%
2% -0.15%
0% -0.20%
-2% -0.25%
-4% -0.30%
-4.0%
-4.1%
-5.0%
S.F. Bay -6.0%
Area, 19%
Southern
-7.0%
California, -7.1%
48% -8.0%
Central S.F. Bay Southern Central Other
Valley Area California Coast Counties
Growth
50.0%
10.0%
0.0% 0.0%
-10.0%
-50.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-100.0%
-40.0%
-150.0% -50.0%
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Dec-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Mar-13
Mar-15
Mar-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Mar-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Mar-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
34
Thank You