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ELSEVIER Journal of Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161 193
&Economids
CEO compensation:
The role of individual performance evaluation
Robert M. Bushman, Raffi J. Indjejikian*, Abbie Smith
Graduate School of Business, University of Chieayo, Chicago, IL 60637, USA
Abstract
*Corresponding author.
The authors would like to thank John Anderson, Katie Donohue, Roberta Fox, Bill James, Kevin J.
Murphy (the referee), Mark Ubelhart, Ross Watts (the editor), Ross Zimmerman, and seminar
participants at MIT, Northwestern, Stanford, Wharton, and the 1994 Summer Symposium on
Accounting Research at Hong Kong University of Science & Technology. We are grateful to Hewitt
Associates LLC for making this research possible and for sharing their valuable insights with us, and
to Bruce Cameron and Pam Dienelt for providing Compensation Committee Reports. We would
also like to thank Susan Clady, Jennifer Milliron, and Victor Yaun for valuable research assistance.
The financial support of the Graduate School of Business of the University of Chicago is gratefully
acknowledged.
I. Introduction
1See. for example, Antic and Smith (1986),Gibbons and Murphy (1990), Lambert and Larcker( 1987,
1991), and Sloan (1993), among others.
=Traditional accounting earnings measures of performance include earnings per share, pre-tax
profit, return on assets, return on equity, and return on sales, while traditional stock price measures
include total stockholder rcturns and stock performance versus peer group.
R.M. Bushman et al. /Journal o f Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161 193 163
Using proprietary data from Hewitt Associates, we measure the use of IPE as
the weight, out of a total of 100%, placed on individual performance in
determining CEO bonuses from annual incentive plans (IP/Bonus). We also
measure the use of IPE as the target bonus dollars tied to measures of individual
performance relative to salary (IP/Salary). IP/Salary incorporates not only the
percentage of the annual bonus based on 1PE, but also the magnitude of the
total target bonus relative to the CEO's salary.
Previous research has documented that the use of long-term, stock-price-
based incentive plans increases with investment opportunities (e.g., Smith and
Watts, 1992; Gaver and Gaver, 1993). Given our prediction that IPE will
increase with investment opportunities, we examine the relative importance of
IPE and long-term compensation plans as supplements to corporate accounting
measures in CEO compensation. This is accomplished by analyzing the ratio of
IP/Salary to Long-Term/Salary, where Long-Term/Salary captures the value
of annualized grants of long-term incentive plans. We refer to this ratio as
IP/Long-Term.
We document a positive and significant relation between both IP/Bonus and
IP/Salary and investment opportunities (as measured by market-to-book ratios),
and the length of product development and product life cycles. We also docu-
ment a positive and significant relation between IP/Bonus and IP/Salary and
firm sales and CEO tenure. Finally, we document a positive, significant relation
between IP/Long-Term and the length of the product development cycle and
CEO tenure. In contrast, we fail to find a significant positive relation between
measures of noise in accounting earnings and stock price measures and any of
our three measures of I PE, where noise is measured by several proxies including
the variance of stock returns and the correlation between accounting and stock
returns.
We think the evidence presented in this paper is interesting for several
reasons. First, we provide the first evidence, of which we are aware, on the use of
individual performance evaluation in CEO compensation contracts. Second,
our results suggest that prior empirical compensation studies, based solely on
measures of corporate accounting and market returns, fail to capture important
performance measures for some firms. And finally, our results provide indirect
evidence regarding the limitations of accounting data and stock prices in
measuring current aspects of executives' performance beyond the stewardship of
assets in place. The positive relation between IPE and corporate growth oppor-
tunities and product development and product life cycles suggest that ac-
counting and to some extent price-based measures are not sufficient measures of
CEO performance for some firms.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides the
background and motivation for our hypotheses in greater detail. Section 3 de-
scribes our sample and empirical measures. Section 4 describes our empirical
methods and results, and Section 5 concludes the paper.
164 R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal o['Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161 193
3For a discussion of the contracting propertics of an equilibrium market price in a moral hazard
setting, see Bushman and Indjejikian (1993), Paul (1992), and Holmstrom and Tirole (1992), among
others. For an expanded discussion and synthesis of this literature, see Milgrom and Roberts (1992).
R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal o f Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161-193 165
4A related explanation for IPE can be found in Baker, Gibbons, and M u r p h y (1994). They argue that
discretionary awards m a y be a way to offset certain dysfunctional aspects of an objective incentive
system (e.g., earnings management).
s For example, Smith and Watts (1992), a m o n g others, argue that a manager's actions are tess readily
observable as the firm's investment opportunity set increases. This leads to their prediction that, the
larger the proportion of a firm's value represented by growth options, the more likely a firm is to
offer contingent compensation.
166 R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal q[ Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161 193
3.1. S a m p l e
The sample consists of 396 firms and 1476 firm-year observations drawn from
Hewitt Associates' compensation surveys of public domestic companies for six
years, 1990-1995. To deal with multiple observations for a given firm, we specify
our empirical tests using 396 aggregated firm observations. An aggregated
observation is formed by measuring the dependent and independent variables at
the firm-year level and then for each firm, averaging the variables representing
individual firm-year observations across years (from 1990 to 1995). The Hewitt
data are collected annually using a mail survey. Participant firms pay a fee to
gain access to the survey results and incur direct costs to complete the extensive
survey questionnaire. That is, the Hewitt survey works much like a trade
association in which firms confidentially contribute private information and in
return receive information summarized across all contributing firms. Hewitt
also follows up on individual firm surveys with telephone conversations to verify
accuracy. As a result, we believe that the data have a high degree of accuracy.
To be included in our sample, a firm has to satisfy the following criteria:
(i) have at least one year of information about the weight placed on a CEO's
individual performance in determining annual bonuses during the six-year
period; (it) have Compustat share price, shares outstanding, and stockholder's
equity information for three consecutive years preceding at least one year for
which the weight on the CEO's individual performance is reported, and sales for
one preceding year; (iii) have a ratio of the market-to-book value of equity
greater than or equal to zero; 6 and (iv) report information about the tenure of
the CEO corresponding to the year for which the weight on the CEO's indi-
vidual performance is reported.
The 396 public companies that satisfy the above criteria represent a number of
different industries. Table 1, panel A shows the distribution of the sample across
single-digit SIC codes. Table I, panel B provides additional descriptive data
about our sample firms, where all dollar amounts have been CPl-adjusted to
1989 dollars. The sample consists primarily of large firms with mean (median)
sales of $5 billion ($1.9 billion). More than 50 percent of our sample firms are
included on the 1994 list of Fortune 500 industrial companies. Panel B also
provides descriptive data on the compensation packages of our sample firms.
The mean base salary for CEOs is $554,134, while for the incentive portion of
~'Highmarket-to-book values due to small positive values of book equity may be as problematic as
negative market-to-book values due to negative book equity. However, this was not a major
problem in the present study. As described in Section 4.2. we performed sensitivity analysis to rule
out potential market-to-book outlier problems.
R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal of Accounting and Economics 2l (1996) 161 193 167
Table 1
Distribution of the sample by one-digit SIC code and compensation and size characteristics
Sample consists of 396 aggregated firm observations and 1476 firm-year observations. An aggreg-
ated observation is formed by measuring observations at the firm-year level and averaging observa-
tions for the same firm across years (from 1990 to 1995). All dollar amounts are CPI-adjusted to 1989
equivalent dollars.
1 Primary 20
2 Manufacturing (nondurables) 115
3 Manufacturing (durables) 144
4 Transportation and utilities 76
5 Wholesalers and retailers 28
6 8 Financial, business, and consumer services 13
Total 396
The sample selection criteria are (i) at least one year of information about the weight placed on
a CEO's individual performance in determining his annual bonus, (ii) share price, shares outstand-
ing, and stckholders' equity information on Compustat for three consecutive years preceding the
year for which the weight placed on a CEO's individual performance is reported, and sales for one
year, (iii) positive average market to book value of equity over the three years preceding the year for
which the weight placed on a CEO's individual performance is reported, and (iv) information about
the tenure of the CEO corresponding to the year for which the weight on a CEO's individual
performance is reported in the Hewitt survey.
t h e p a c k a g e t h e m e a n t a r g e t a n n u a l b o n u s is $ 3 4 5 , 9 6 6 a n d t h e m e a n a n n u a l
l o n g - t e r m c o m p e n s a t i o n a w a r d is $818,724.
3.2. M e a s u r e s o f I P E a n d l o n g - t e r m c o m p e n s a t i o n
O u r first m e a s u r e o f t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f I P E is t h e w e i g h t p l a c e d o n a g i v e n
C E O ' s i n d i v i d u a l p e r f o r m a n c e in t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f his a n n u a l b o n u s . E a c h
sample firm reports this weight, IP/Bonus, in response to a survey question
requesting the weights placed on performance measured at the corporate, group,
d i v i s i o n a l , a n d p l a n t levels, a n d t h e w e i g h t p l a c e d o n i n d i v i d u a l p e r f o r m a n c e
in d e t e r m i n i n g a n n u a l i n c e n t i v e b o n u s e s t o b e a w a r d e d t o t h e C E O . T a b l e 2
168 R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal o[Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161-193
Table 2
Sample distribution of dependent variables
Sample consists of 396 aggregated firm observations and 1476 firm-year observations. An aggre-
gated observation is formed by measuring observations at the firm-year level and averaging obser-
vations for the same firm across years (from 1990 to 1995). All dollar amounts are CPI-adjusted to
1989 equivalent dollars.
IP/Bonus = Percentage of CEOs" annual bonus based on individual (i.e., noncorporate) perfor-
mance. IP/Salary = IP/Bonus multiplied by target bonus dollars expressed as a percentage of base
salary; 49 firms in our sample of 396 firms do not report target bonus information. Long-
Term/Salary = annualized value of grants of long-term plans (stock options, stock appreciation
rights, performance units, performance shares, phantom stock, and restricted stock) as a percentage
of base salary. IP/Lonq-Term = ratio of lP/Bonus multiplied by target bonus dollars to the
annulized value of long-term compensation (stock options, stock appreciation rights, performance
units, performance shares, phantom stock, and restricted stock).
Thus, one minus the weight on individual performance equals the sum of the
weights placed on performance measured at the corporate, group, divisional,
and plant levels. In almost all cases, the non-IPE portion of the annual bonus is
based exclusively on performance measured at the corporate level.
We focus on annual incentive plans to capture the definition of individual
performance evaluation for two reasons. First, short-term bonus plans based on
current accounting profits are often blamed for managerial myopia, i.e., en-
couraging a preoccupation with current operations and short-term results, and
discouraging strategic initiatives and long-term investments in new products,
processes, and markets with deferred and highly uncertain returns. 7 Thus, the
value of IPE in capturing aspects of CEO performance not reflected in current
profits is arguably high in the short-term incentive component of a CEO's
compensation package. Second, data are available on precise weights placed on
CEOs' individual performance for annual incentive plans only. This may be
a reflection of the more pervasive and explicit use of IPE in annual incentive
plans vis-a-vis other components of managerial compensation, s
Although lP/Bonus captures the importance of IPE for determining the
annual bonus payout, differences in the targeted dollar amount of the total
annual bonus can affect the incentive power derived from individual perfor-
mance evaluation. For example, a higher individual performance weight multi-
plied by a lower bonus amount may imply lower overall compensation from
IPE. Therefore, we develop a second measure of the use and importance of IPE,
the percentage of the target bonus amount subject to individual performance
evaluation to base salary,
IP/Bonus x Taryet bonus dollars
IP/Salary =
Base salary
Table 2 documents that for our aggregated sample, nonzero values for IP/Salary
have a mean (median) of 21.0 (17.5) percent.
Our final measure of the importance of IPE is motivated by the conjecture
that situations which promote IPE may also promote the use of long-term
incentive plans. Information about long-term incentive plans for firms in our
sample includes the annualized expected value of grants of long-term plans
including options (valued using the Black-Scholes option pricing model with
adjustment for employee forfeiture possibilities and early-exercise provisions),
the target payout for performance units, performance shares and phantom
stock, and restricted stock (valued at the price of the shares at the date of the
7See, for example, Narayanan (1985) and Stein (1989). Stock-price-based plans are also sometimes
criticized for providing incentives to myopically manipulate short-term stock prices.
Slndividual performance may also enter into the determination of long-term compensation. For
example, discretion may be exercised in determining the number of stock options granted to an
executive in a particular year. We do not address this possibility in the present paper.
170 R.M. Bushmanet al. / Journal ~?fAccounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161 193
Long- Term/Salary
Annualized value of grants of long-term compensation plans x 100
Base salary
The d e t e r m i n a n t s of l o n g - t e r m c o m p e n s a t i o n for C E O s have been the subject
of previous research (e.g., G a v e r a n d Gaver, 1993; Smith a n d Watts, 1992;
Lewellen, Loderer, a n d M a r t i n , 1987). O u r objective in this paper is to c o m p a r e
the relative use of l o n g - t e r m c o m p e n s a t i o n a n d IPE. The analysis of L o n g -
T e r m / S a l a r y is m e a n t to serve as a base line against which to investigate the
relative i m p o r t a n c e of the two measures.
T o capture the relative i m p o r t a n c e of the two measures we use the ratio of the
target b o n u s subject to I P E to long-term c o m p e n s a t i o n . T h a t is,
9Because one of Hewitt's objectives is to generate an annual compensation amount for the
executives reported by survey participants, they utilize an annualizing procedure for long-term
grants that are not granted on an annual basis. This involves scaling the value of a multi-period
grant to reflect an annual amount. Payouts from performance units and performance shares are
typically a function of accounting and/or share price performance over a multi-year period, while the
other components of long-term compensation typically depend on share price performance only.
~°Financial measures are defined as accounting (e.g., EPS, pre-tax profit, ROE, sales) or external
market measures (e.g., total stockholder retm'n, stock performance versus peer group). The Hewitt
survey and our review of proxies indicate that the financial measures used in annual bonuses are
primarily accounting-based, and seldom rely on stock price performance. This is also consistent with
the findings in Ittner, Larcker, and Rajan (1995). Examples of excerpts from compensation com-
mittee reports for this subsample are included in the Appendix.
R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal of Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161 193 171
Market-to-book value
M a r k e t - t o - b o o k ratios often are used to capture the spirit of Myer's (1977)
characterization of a firm's growth opportunities relative to assets in place. For
example, Collins and Kothari (1989) and Smith and Watts (1992) argue that the
difference between the market value and book value roughly represents the
value of investment opportunities facing a firm. Other papers which use mar-
ket-to-book ratios as proxies for growth or investment opportunities include
Chung and Charoenwong (1991), Gaver and Gaver (1993), Holthausen and
Larcker (1991), Kole (1991), and Lewellen, Loderer, and Martin (1987). In the
context of managerial performance evaluation, the typical intuition underlying
the explanatory power of this ratio is that it captures the consequences of
managerial actions and decisions that are reflected in market price but not
reflected in accounting numbers. Thus, consistent with this intuition, we expect
m a r k e t - t o - b o o k values to be positively related to the use of price-based perfor-
mance measures (Long-Term/Salary). Moreover, to the extent that some of
172 R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal c~['Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161 193
11For a more thorough discussion of these issues, see National Academy of Engineering (1992).
R.M. Bushman et al. /Journal of Accounting and Economics" 21 (1996) 161 193 173
life cycles will be associated with the use of more I P E and more long-term
compensation.
We classify a firm as having either a short product development cycle or
a short product life cycle if its industry product development cycle or industry
product life cycle is reported as less than or equal to four years in the National
Academy of Engineering scheme. We classify a firm as having a long product
development cycle or a long product life cycle if its industry product develop-
ment cycle or its industry product life cycle is greater than four years in the
National Academy of Engineering scheme. The exact number of years that
classifies a firm as short or long is admittedly open to debate, and thus a large
number of classification possibilities exist. However, given that our objective is
not to find the ideal classification scheme, we select a cutoff of four years as at
least reasonable for exploring hypotheses about the use of IPE.~2
The National Academy of Engineering scheme reports cycle times by industry
groups that are not explicitly linked to SIC classifications. We use both the
firm's four-digit SIC code and the description of its business included in the 10K
report to classify our sample firms into the Academy's industry groups. The
results of this classification process are shown in Table 3 by industry description.
Using product development cycles, 123 firms are classified as short and 131 as
long, while using product life cycle, 92 are classified as short and 162 as long. We
are unable to classify 142 of our sample firms because their industries are not
included in the National Academy of Engineering classification scheme.
12In a previous version of the paper we utilized product development cycle only and classified firms
into short (one year or less), medium (between one and five years), and long (greater than five years)
categories. Using a one-year sample, we found that use of IPE increased significantly as development
cycle increased from short to medium, but found no significant difference between medium- and
long-cycle firms.
13At the same time, others have characterized variances of accounting and market returns as
measures of the variability of underlying cash flows rather than noise. The superiority of the one or
the other interpretation is not immediately apparent.
174 R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal q/Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161 193
Table 3
Time horizon classification of firms by industry
254 firms from our sample of 396 firms are classified as short or long along two dimensions of time
horizon: product development cycle and product life cycle. Product development and life cycle
classifications are adapted from National Academy of Engineering (1992).
m a n a g e r ' s p e r f o r m a n c e . ~4 A h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n is i n t e r p r e t e d as a s e t t i n g w h e r e
a c c o u n t i n g e a r n i n g s a r e h i g h ' q u a l i t y ' , a n d reflect well t h e a c t i o n s o f t h e C E O .
T h u s , we e x p e c t f i r m s w i t h a h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n will rely m o r e o n a c c o u n t i n g -
b a s e d m e a s u r e s a n d less o n I P E a n d p r i c e - b a s e d p e r f o r m a n c e m e a s u r e s , c e t e r i s
p a r i b u s . T h i s i m p l i e s a n e g a t i v e s i g n o n t h e c o r r e l a t i o n v a r i a b l e in t h e I P / B o n u s ,
I P / S a l a r y , a n d L o n g - T e r m / S a l a r y r e g r e s s i o n s . W e m a k e n o p r e d i c t i o n for t h e
sign o n c o r r e l a t i o n in t h e I P / L o n g - T e r m a n a l y s i s .
~4Salamon and Smith (1979) suggest that the correlation between accounting numbers and market
prices provides an explicit measure of the amount of 'managerial misrepresentation' in accounting
numbers.
R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal of Accounting and Economics 2l (1996) 161 193 175
CEO tenure
We conjecture that C E O tenure, measured by the n u m b e r of years the C E O
has been in that position as of the year of the compensation survey, m a y be
related to the use of individual performance evaluation for at least several
reasons. First, it m a y be the case that the b o a r d of directors is better able to
evaluate the leadership of a C E O , the quality of his strategic plans, his ability to
identify g r o w t h opportunities, and other qualitative aspects of his performance
as his tenure increases without exclusively relying on corporate financial
measures. 15 Alternatively, it is possible that the longer the tenure, the more
5Gerhart and Milkovich (1990) argue that high human capital investments in the form of education
and experience (or tenure) are likely to be associated with high potential impact on performance, and
therefore, positively associated with the use of contingent pay. This argument is consistent with the
intuition that IP/Salary and Long-Term/Salary increase with tenure.
176 R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal qf Accounting and Economics 2l (1996) 161-193
power the C E O exerts over the board. Thus, a powerful C E O may use his
influence to procure I P E which may be more prone to manipulation. 16 At the
other extreme, it is possible that new C E O s are evaluated relatively more
intensively on individual performance since corporate performance measures
tend to be heavily influenced by the actions of the previous CEO. These effects
are obviously countervailing. Thus, we make no prediction about the relation
between individual performance evaluation and C E O tenure.
Firm size
In the compensation literature, firm size has shown to be positively related to
the level of cash compensation, and has proxied for growth and investment
opportunities (Gaver and Gaver, 1993; Smith and Watts, 1992) and the cost or
difficulty of monitoring an agent (Eaton and Rosen, 1983; Holthausen and
Larcker, 1991). We make no specific predictions about the effects of firm size on
the components of managerial compensation but include firm size in our tests to
preserve comparability with related work in lhis literature. We measure firm size
as the natural logarithm of sales revenue for the fiscal year preceding the year for
which the weight placed on a CEO's individual performance is reported.
J6See Lambert, Larcker, and Weigell (1993) and Inner, Larcker, and Rajan (1995) for further
discussion and analysis of the CEO power theory.
R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal o f Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161-193 177
Table 4
Distribution and correlations of explanatory variables of sample firms
Sample consists of 396 aggregated firm observations and 1476 firm-year observations. An aggre-
gated observation is formed by measuring observations at the firm-year level and averaging obser-
vations for the same firm across years (1990 to 1995). Sales are CPI-adjusted to 1989 equivalent
dollars.
Mtb 1.00
Corr - 0.17* 1.00
Variance -- 0.07 0.02 1.00
Devcycle -- 0.09 - 0.05 -- 0.32* 1.00
Lifecycle 0.18* 0.05 - 0.46* 0.75* 1.00
Size 0.02 - 0.21 * - 0.29* 0.06 0.13 1.00
Ceoten 0.00 0.04 0.11 - 0.03 0.03 -- 0.16" hO0
Mtb = ratio of market value of common stock to book value of equity based on an average of the
three consecutive years preceding the year which the weight placed on a CEO's individual perfor-
mance is reported. Corr = time series correlation between annual accounting returns (income before
extraordinary items over average common equity) and annual stock returns estimated over a max-
imum of 10 years (with a minimum of 6 years) preceding the year for which the weight placed on
a CEO's individual performance is reported. Variance - natural log of the variance of monthly
stock returns estimated over a maximum of 60 months (with a minimum of 36 months) preceding the
year for which the weight placed on a CEO's individual performance is reported. Devcycle = 1 if
a firm is classified as having long product development cycle (Table 3), otherwise it equals zero.
Lifecycle = 1 ifa firm is classified as having long product life cycle (Table 3), otherwise it equals zero.
Size = natural log of sales revenue for the fiscal year preceding the year for which the weight placed
on a CEO's individual performance is reported. Ceoten = number of years the CEO has been in that
position as of the year of the compensation survey.
*p-value < 0.01.
178 R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal ol Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161 193
are reported as the natural log of the variable due to significant positive
skewness. The results in panel B indicate significant (0.01 probability level)
negative pairwise correlations between the market-to-book ratio and the cor-
relation between accounting and stock returns, and a positive correlation
between the market-to-book ratio and product life cycle. There is also a signifi-
cant negative correlation between the variance of returns and product develop-
ment cycle and product life cycle, and between firm size and the correlation
between accounting and stock returns, CEO tenure, and the variance of returns.
Product development cycle and product life cycle are highly positively corre-
lated (0.75).
4. Empirical results
We test for a positive relation between the use of IPE and proxies for product
time horizon, corporate growth opportunities, and noise in accounting and
stock return measures. We consider the percentage weight placed on the indi-
vidual performance of the CEO in determining his annual bonus (IP/Bonus) in
Table 5 and the dollar value of the CEO's target bonus based on individual
performance as a percentage of salary (lP/Salary) in Table 6. For comparison
purposes, in Table 7 we also test the significance of model variables in explaining
the dollar value of annualized grants of long-term incentive plans relative to
salary (Long-Term/Salary). Our interest in long-term compensation, which is
usually linked to the value of stock, is motivated in part by the fact that
stock-based compensation often is argued to be most appropriate in settings
characterized by high information asymmetry between shareholders and man-
agers. For example, Gaver and Gaver (1993), Lewellen, Loderer, and Martin
(1987), and Smith and Watts (1992) all lind an association between stock-based
compensation and various proxies for firms' growth opportunities. We expect
Long-Term/Salary to increase with corporate growth opportunities, the time
horizon as determined by the product development and life cycles in the
industry, and the noise of accounting earnings, similar to our predictions for
IPE. We expect Long-Term/Salary to decrease with the noise in stock returns.
Finally, to provide evidence of the use of IPE relative to stock-based compensa-
tion, in Table 8 we test the significance of model variables in explaining the
dollar value of the CEO's target bonus based on individual performance as
a percentage of long-term compensation (I P/Long-Term).
We use OLS regression to estimate the relation between IP/Bonus, IP/Salary,
Long-Term/Salary, and IP/Long-Term and model variables. However, the
distribution of the weight on individual performance has two features which
violate the OLS normality assumption; the preponderance of zero values and
the censoring at values of zero and 100 percent. Zero values for IP/Bonus imply
zero values for IP/Salary and IP/Long-Term as well. To check the robustness of
R.M. Bushman et al. /Journal o f Accounting and Economics 2l (1996) 161 193 179
the OLS results, we reestimate models for IP/Bonus, IP/Salary, and IP/Long-
Term using a Tobit technique as reported in Table 9.
Table 5 presents OLS regression results for four models of IP/Bonus. Collec-
tively the four models test for a positive relation between IP/Bonus and proxies
for corporate growth opportunities, time horizon, and noise in accounting and
stock return measures. The proxy for corporate growth opportunities, the
market-to-book value of equity averaged over the prior three years, appears in
all models. The proxies for product time horizon, unavailable for 142 firms, and
proxies for the noise in accounting and stock returns, unavailable for 45 sample
firms, are excluded from Model 1 to enable a test of the significance of the
m a r k e t - t o - b o o k value of equity for the full sample of 396 firms. Model 2 adds
the noise variables, Corr and Variance, to Model 1. Models 3 and 4 include the
time horizon proxies, classified on the basis of the estimated length of the
product development cycle (Devcycle) in the industry in Model 3 and on the
basis of the estimated length of the product life cycle (Lifecycle) in the industry in
Model 4. We include the two time horizon proxies in separate models to avoid
a multicollinearity problem, as the correlation between Devcycle and Lifecycle is
0.75 (Table 4). Models 3 and 4 exclude the 142 sample firms whose industry time
horizons are not classified and an additional 33 firms for which our noise
variables are missing. The four models in Table 5 also include two control
variables: a measure of firm size (natural log of sales in the preceding year stated
in 1989 equivalent dollars) and the tenure of the CEO. Finally, Models 1 and 2
include a control variable for electric utilities. The control variable for electric
utilities is unnecessary in Models 3 and 4 whose estimation samples exclude
electric utilities due to missing time horizon variables. We make no predictions
about the sign of the coefficients of the three control variables.
The results of Model 1 indicate a significant positive coefficient (probability
level < 0.01), as predicted, on the market-to-book value of equity for the full
sample of 396 firms.17 The coefficient on the electric utility d u m m y is negative
and significant (0.10 probability level) and implies that classification as an
electric utility is associated with a 7 percent reduction in IP/Bonus. The OLS
coefficients on the natural log of sales (in 1989 equivalent dollars) and the tenure
of the C E O are both positive and highly significant (probability level < 0.02).
The latter results suggest that I P E is more important in determining the annual
bonuses of highly seasoned CEOs of large firms.
~VAll reported p-values derive from two-tailed tests, including those variables for which we are
making a unidirectional prediction.
180 R.M. Bushman et al. Journal ~?/'Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161 193
Table 5
Estimated O L S regression models of the percentage of C E O annual b o n u s based on individual
performance (IP/Bonus)
Sample consists of 396 aggregated firm observations and 1476 firm-year observations. An aggregated
observation is formed by measuring observations at the firm-year level and averaging observations
for the same firm across years (from 1990 l o 1995). Sales are CPI-adjusted to 1989 equivalent dollars.
IP/Bonus = percentage of C E O s ' annual bonus based on individual (i.e., noncorporate) perfor-
mance. Mtb - ratio of market value of c o m m o n stock to book value of equity based on an average
of the three consecutive years preceding lhc year for which the weight placed on a C E O ' s individual
performance is reported. Corr - time series correlalion between annual accounting returns (income
before extraordinary items over average c o m m o n equity) and annual stock returns estimated over
a m a x i m u m of 10 years (with a m i n i m u m of 6 years) preceding the year for which the weight placed
on a C E O ' s individual performance is reported. Variance = natural log of the variance of m o n t h l y
stock returns estimated over a m a x i m u m of 60 m o n t h s (with a m i n i m u m of 36 months) preceding the
year for which the weight placed on a C E O ' s individual performance is reported. Devcycle = 1 if
a firm is classified as having long product development cycle (Table 3), otherwise it equals zero.
Lifecycle - 1 ira firm is classified as having long product life cycle (Table 3), otherwise it equals zero.
Size = natural log of sales revenue for the fiscal year preceding the year for which the weight placed
on a C E O ' s individual performance is reported. Ceoten = n u m b e r of years the C E O has been in that
position as of the year of the compensation survey. Utility - 1 if a firm is an electric utility (SIC
codes 4911 and 4931), otherwise it equals zero.
Asterisks denote p-values < 0.10 (*), < 0.05 (**), and < 0.01 (***); two-tailed test.
aFor Model 2, 45 firms from our sample of 396 firms have insufficient data for calculating the
variables Corr and Variance. F o r Models 3 and 4, 33 of the 254 firms that are classified by time
horizon in Table 3 have insufficient data for calculating the variables Corr and Variance.
R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal o f Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161- 193 181
l SRestricting the tests to observations with positive IP/Bonus reduces the sample to 156 observa-
tions for Model 1, 141 for Model 2, and 101 for both Models 3 and 4.
182 R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal ~)/'Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161 193
Table 6
Estimated OLS regression models of CEO target bonus based on individual performance as
a percentage of base salary (IP/Salary)
347 aggregated firm observations from the sample of 396 firm have target bonus information to
compute IP/Salary. An aggregated observation is formed by measuring observations at the firm-
year level and averaging observations for the same firm across years (from 1990 to 1995). Sales are
CPl-adjusted to 1989 equivalent dollars.
Regression coefficients (t-statistics)
Predicted
Explanatory variable sign Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4
controlling for other model variables. The coefficients on the time horizon
variables are both positive and significant, as predicted, in Models 3 and 4. The
magnitude of the coefficient on the time horizon variable in Model 3 indicates
that a shift from an industry whose product development cycle is classified as
short to an industry classified as long is associated with an increase in the target
bonus tied to I P E as a percentage of salary of 5.4 percent. The time horizon
coefficient in Model 4 indicates that a shift from an industry whose product life
cycle is classified as short to an industry classified as long is associated with an
increase in the target bonus tied to IPE as a percentage of salary of 8.2 percent.
The coefficients on the measures of noise in accounting returns and stock
returns are insignificant in Models 2 and 3. However, in Model 4 the coefficient
on the variance of stock returns is positive and significant at the 0.10 level.
Finally, as for IP/Bonus, IP/Salary increases significantly with firm size and
C E O tenure, and decreases with membership in the electric utility industry.
Overall the results in Tables 5 and 6 are consistent with the prediction that the
use of IPE in determining CEOs' annual bonuses increases with the growth
opportunities and with the product development and product life cycles of the
firm. The results fail to provide consistent support for the prediction that the use
of IPE increases with the noise in traditional accounting and stock return
measures. Finally, the results suggest that the use of IPE is lower in the electric
utility industry and higher in large firms with highly seasoned CEOs.
4.2. L o n g - t e r m c o m p e n s a t i o n a n d I P E
~gWe also ran the models in Table 7 including the 23 sample firms with no long-term plans by
adding 1.0 before taking logs. The results are qualitatively similar to those in Table 7 and are not
reported.
184 R.M. Bushman et al. / Journal ~?/'Accounting and Economics 21 (1996) 161 193
Table 7
Estimated OLS regression models of the natural logarithm of Long-Term/Salary
338 aggregated firm observations frona the sample of 396 firms report nonzero values for Long-
Term/Salary and have sufficient information to compute Corr and Variance. An aggregated
observation is formed by measuring observations at the firm-year level and averaging observations
for the same firm across years (from 1990 to 1995). Sales are CPI-adjusted to 1989 equivalent dollars.
Table 8
Estimated OLS regression models of CEO target bonus based on individual performance as
a percentage of the annualized value of long-term compensation (IP/Long-Term)
296 aggregated firm observations from our sample of 396 firms have target bonus information,
positive values of long-term compensation, and have sufficient information to compute Corr and
Variance. An aggregated observation is formed by measuring observations at the firm-year level and
averaging observations for the same firm across years (from 1990 to 19951. Sales are CPI-adjusted to
1989 equivalent dollars.
Table 9
Estimated Tobit (normal) regression models of the percentage of CEO annual bonus based on
individual performance (IP/Bonus), CEO target bonus based on individual performance as a per-
centage of base salary (IP/Salary), and CEO target bonus based on individual performance as
a percentage of the annualized value of long-term compensation (IP/Long-Term)
Dependent variable a
IP/Bonus = percentage of CEOs' annual bonus based on individual (i.e., noncorporate) performance.
IP/Salary = IP/Bonus multiplied by target bonus dollars expressed as a percentage of base salary;
49 firms in our sample of 396 firms do report target bonus information. IP/Lony-Term = target
bonus dollars based on individual performance as a percentage of the annualized value of long-term
compensation. Mtb = ratio of market value of common stock to book value of equity based on an
average of the three consecutive years preceding the year for which the weight placed on a CEO's
individual performance is reported. C o r r = time series correlation between annual accounting
returns (income before extraordinary items over average common equity) and annual stock returns
estimated over a maximum of 10 years (with a minimum of 6 years) preceding the year for which the
weight placed on a CEO's individual performance is reported. Variance = natural log of the
variance of monthly stock returns estimated over a maximum of 60 months (with a minimum of 36
months) preceding the year for which the weight placed on a CEO's individual performance is
reported. Devcycle = 1 if a firm is classified as having long product development cycle (Table 3),
otherwise it equals zero. Size = natural log of sales revenue for the fiscal year preceding the year for
which the weight placed on a CEO's individual performance is reported. Ceoten = number of years
the CEO has been in that position as of the year of the compensation survey.
Asterisks denote p-values < 0.10 (*), < 0.05 (**), and < 0.01 (***); two-tailed test.
aThe estimated models correspond to Model 3 in Tables 5 and 6 and Model 2 in Table 8.
188 R.M. Bushman et a L / Journal (?/ Accounting and Economics 21 H996) 161 193
the models in Table 9 as well as the Tobit results for the nonreported models are
qualitatively similar to the OLS results.
As an additional check on the robustness of our results, we estimated OLS
regression models with the natural log of the market-to-book ratio due to its
positively skewed distribution, and winsorized the market-to-book ratio at the
mean plus three and four standard deviations. In addition, we used alternative
proxies for the noise of accounting and stock returns, including the variance of
annual accounting and stock returns, and both the beta of the c o m m o n stock
and the natural log of the variance of the market model residuals each estimated
over a m a x i m u m of 60 months (with a minimum of 36 months) preceding the
year for which IP/Bonus is reported. The results in all cases are qualitatively
similar to those reported.
Finally we examine the possibility that zero values of IP/Bonus (and
IP/Salary) proxy for poorly performing firms, with low market-to-book ratios,
forgoing bonus payments. If poorly performing firms report IP/Bonus equals
zero when they fail to achieve certain financial targets required for bonus
payments, then the observed positive association between IP/Bonus (and
IP/Salary) and market-to-book ratios is potentially spurious. To address this
concern, we compare the IP/Bonus of sample firms that actually paid a bonus to
the C E O for 1992 performance with the IP/Bonus of sample firms that did not
pay a bonus. If the results are due simply to a tendency to report IP/Bonus = 0
when financial targets are not met, we would expect a lower frequency of
positive weights (IP/Bonus > 0) in the subsample of firms which did not pay
a bonus to the CEO. However, the percentage of each subsample which reported
IP/Bonus > 0 is approximately the same, 35 percent of firms with no bonus
payments and 38 percent of firms with a bonus payment. In addition, we
examine the stability of IP/Bonus over time for individual firms. If the reported
IP/Bonus numbers are sensitive to actual financial results from year to year, we
would expect to observe changes in IP/Bonus from one year to the next.
However, we find that changes in IP/Bonus are uncommon. Of the 1,016 annual
firm-years we examine prior to 1994, there is no change in IP/Bonus in 926 cases
(91.1 percent).
which the officer is assigned or, as in the case of certain officers of the Company
(including the CEO), on the performance of the entire Company, ranging from
0 to 150 percent of the target amounts depending on the extent to which
applicable EBIT and cash flow goals were achieved.
extent to which the performance targets have been met and the appropriate
factor, ranging from 0 to 200 percent, to apply to this part of the guideline
incentive award. For 1992, the Company's financial performance target was
based upon a single factor: the achievement of a predetermined level of after-tax
income before special items.
Annual incentive awards are also influenced by the executive's individual
performance. Qualitative factors associated with strategic planning, achieve-
ment of operational goals, organizational and management development, and
constituency relations are included in an assessment to arrive at the individual
performance portion of the incentive award. Personal assessment ratings can
range from 0 to 150 percent.
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