NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY

ISLAMABAD

Ariba Zehra
NDU-BS-S/18-805
Department of Leadership and Management Studies BS 3rd
Course: Peace and Conflict
Report writing
Kashmir Conflict
Submitted to: AVM Najam Ul Asar
 Table of contents:

Executive summary……………………………………………………...1
Introduction …………………………………………………………......2
i. Root causes
ii. Relevant causes
iii. Actors
iv. Interest
v. Goal
vi. Position
vii. Present situation
viii. Strategies and option
ix. Scenario building
x. Cost benefit analysis
Conclusion ……………………………………………………………...3
Executive summary
Fact that Pakistan and India have multiple conflict to be resolve. Including Siachen glaciers, sir
creek etc. but Kashmir is the most significant dispute in south Asia and it holds the key to a
rapprochement between two rivals. There are certain statements and views by both side that to
resolve Kashmir dispute. But how it can be resolve when India do not even want to talk about
Kashmir. India point of argument is that Kashmir is a part of Indian union through treaty of
accession. Here the right of referendum of Kashmiri’s are violated.

If we trace Kashmir conflict back in the history it was before the partition at the time period of
Dogra king but the dispute gets intensified at the time of 3rd June plan of partition which is also
known as Redcliff award, where princely states were given the right to choose with whom they
want stay either Pakistan or India. At first Kashmir desired to stay independent but later they
joined Indian union through treaty of accession. However geographically and culturally Kashmir
is closer to Pakistan then India.

Moreover, in this paper we will discuss and analyze the whole scenario of Kashmir conflict that
how it arose the root causes of conflict and what are the views of parties including Kashmiris.
Further what are consequence which leads to destruction and not letting the conflict to be ripped
and get ready to resolved, recommendations and conclusions.
Introduction

Kashmir is a disputed area and it will be wrong to consider Kashmir as a part of Indian union
because still majority of Kashmiris reject the Indian rule of cruelty. The Kashmiri’s wants the
right of referendum to decide their political future which was also assigned to them by UN
resolution of 1948-1949. But India somehow did it by treaty of accession and integrate Kashmir
with India. Efforts between Pakistan and India to resolve Kashmir conflict peacefully remains
unsuccessful. Tension between Pakistan and India upon Kashmir dispute led the both countries
to three full fledge war and many more low scale wars which resulted in many killings and
human rights violation and it is also threat for south Asia peace and security.

Both parties India and Pakistan had consistently remained in certain dialogue to resolve Kashmir
dispute and other major issues include water, glaciers disputes and visa process but due to
varying reasons every time several attempts for bilateral talks over the year has been disrupted.
Whenever both countries leadership agree to negotiate, some terrorist activities in India and
Kashmir, violation of line of control (LOC) and instability in Pakistan cast a shadow over peace
process.

Further the level of distrust between Pakistan and India is another major reason that the
negotiations dose not takes place and exclusion of Kashmiris from dialogue process has led to
another level distrust between Kashmiris and Pakistan, India.

Here we will discuss the whole scenario from root causes up to the current situation.

Root cause

1. Pakistani perspective: this conflict has its seeds in the partition plan announced by
mount batten on 3rd June 1947, according to these princely states had to exceed in view
of their geographical contiguity and Kashmir is near to Pakistan but was given to India
against the will of the majority.
2. Indian perspective: Jammu and Kashmir is the integral part of India and Pakistan in
interfering in the affairs of the state by supporting the mujahedeen and illogically
intervening.
 3. Kashmir perspective: it is sandwich between the historical animosity of India and pace
their right of self-determination freedom and human rights were being violated by the
Indian army in their own region.

Relevant causes:

Pak India war in 1948, mainly due to Indian violation of law of water. India Pak war in 1965 a
direct confrontation then both fought deadly war military conflict over disputed glacier Siachen
in Kashmir region both countries have to spend a lot of expenditure for their defense budget in
both lost many soldiers in this conflict, pa kind has direct military confrontation in the Kargill
district in 1999. Kargil war was fought to cut off the link between Kashmir and Ladakh by
hitting national highway. The main purpose behind the war was to force India to negotiate and
resolve the Kashmir conflict. LoC is the unofficial boundary line between Pakistan held Kashmir and
Indian occupied Kashmir, a cease fire agreement was sign to halt the belligerence but Indian forces have
violated and reached its reversal time both the states have lost many lives due to cross border firing at loc.
sir creek and arm race and visa policy of India is also one of the relevant causes of India

Actors:1

Direst actors: India, Pakistan and Kashmiri Muslims

Indirect actors: China (Tibet claim), Afghanistan backing India, US

Organizations: All parties huriat conference ADHC, Jammu and Kashmir liberation front JKLF,
UNHRC, UN military observer group in India and Pakistan

Incompatibility:

Primarily it is conflict over Territory:

Interest:

1. Pakistan – wants issue to be resolved and Kashmir be acceded to Pakistan because of the
strategic and economic importance of Kashmir, store over Kashmiri’s river links with

1
South Asia terrorism portal, 31 Dec 2017, (15.3.2018),)(
http://old.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/jandk/terrorist_outfits/index.html).
 Pak are also vital, original importance of Kashmir for Pak lies in two nation theory. Also,
Pak is against the violation in Kashmir.
2. India- has economic and secure concerns ‘India want to continue issue as the loss of
Kashmir would a set a precedent for other regions in Indian union to break apart. India
wants to prevent ethnic movement and insurgencies the seven sisters. India also wants to
continue with the belligerence against Pak
3. Kashmir- they want issue to be resolved for the protection of their right self-
determination and the basic human right violation against themselves. They want to be
solved to prevent further loss

Goals:

1. Pakistan- wants the Kashmir issue to be resolved and want greater role in south Asia in
terms of economic factors as providing raw materials to the other nations to have better
relation and to have a say in SAARC. To increase regional peace to make tourism
convenient, to diminish it defense expenditures.
2. India- wants to emerge as Asian tiger which it is eying for long as they are lacking only
one ingredient for becoming a sue power because they are indulge in a territorial dispute.
3. Kashmir-wants to earn the status of an independent state. They want to have an
autonomous status and their right of self-determination be preserved.

Position:

 Pakistani stance is to Kashmir with diplomatic and moral efforts. To rise voice against
Indian brutality on human basis. Pakistan has ideological orientation as in two nation
theory. Current government wants the issue to be resolved peacefully. We can afford to
support freedom fighters
 India: It’s ideology is aggression against Pakistan There’s no way of resolution as prime
minister Modi is very conservation. They want to carry damage Pakistan in the fullest
possible way. They are more aggressive than the previous decade because of the current
PM rigidity and hatred towards Muslims. They are against Pakistan but how much
destruction they can cost.
Present situation: Indian forces had arrested many Kashmiris and in 2010 Indian govt
renounced to release 100 of them but nothing was done. In 2011 Pakistan soldiers killed at loc .in
2013 pm of both countries met and decided to reduce the violent incidents at lock in Kashmir. In
August 2014 the pace talks bet Indian and Pakistan were cancelled after India accusation that
Pakistan is waging a proxy war against India and Kashmir.in 2015 after prime minister Modi
book hold of its office the situation has worsened. In July 2016 a curfew was imposed in India
held Kashmir killing 68 and injure 9000 civilians .in September Uri attack and then claimed
surgical strikes has worsened the situation.

Strategies and options

Strategies

Pakistan need to control Indian supported miscreants in Baluchistan, has to support militant
organizations in India held Kashmir have to had negotiations with India and have to get
international support

India can arrange specific dialogue on Kashmir have to wage an extreme secret war against
Pakistan supporting insurgency in Pakistan igniting trouble in Karachi and between suni and shia
, destroy the peace causes at any cost . Kashmir has to apply coercive means a limited war or
large-scale war can be a strategy, continuous negotiations UNSCR resolution has to be applied
for plebiscite.

Options:

Pakistan may avoid the tensions at borders and avoid fighting India, Pak has an option to
support the military n Indian occupied Kashmir to make India bend on its needs or may seriously
pursue the peace process and negotiate a settlement to Kashmir dispute.

India could adopt military conflict building measures aimed at avoiding a war and promoting
economic cooperation while putting Kashmir in the backburner. India’s second option is to
remain offensive n toughen the stance in bilateral talks against Pakistan while alleging that latter
is India could also use the growing Kashmir complaints against the water sharing arrangements
to reopen the Indus water treaty as remanded by the Jammu Kashmir state assembly’s resolution
finally India can go on the diplomatic offensive and change the negotiating parameters with the
peace process or India has also an option to join Pakistan exploring ways to reach a final
resolution of the Kashmir conflict.

Kashmir issue can be resolve though war between Pakistan and India by peaceful means by
involving a third party by conducting a referendum holding a plebiscite in Kashmir region.

Scenario analysis

Best case scenario:

Unfreeze situation and avoid the worst case scenario political and foreign relations can be
defined by different mutual levels of trust between the two countries it will involve a full hearted
engagement with a constructive and sustained dialogue and step by step peace process both
countries will have multilayer partnership and will move towards regional cooperation there will
be a peaceful resolution of Kashmir through dialogue an applying confidence building measures.
People to people contact and trade will increase their will be lower public feasibility of the
military on borders there will be cooperation to counter terrorism and security will improve in
both states ,lowering the tension on line of control and sharing of border .

Worst case scenario:

Due to trust deficit a continue deadlock and absence of dialogue leading to military standoff .it
will bother not only the south Asian region but also the whole international community because
both the case are nuclear powers and the situation can go out of control .it can lead to another
war over Kashmir issue. The lack of military and security cooperation as stance today there will
be no peace between India and Pakistan given the scenario the Kashmir will remain a conflict
area experiencing increase insurgency leading to continued alienation and security among the
Kashmiri’s. Terrorism will continue be off endemic nature tension at line of control will continue
to mount more and more in future.

Middle case scenario:

Status quo is maintained but after sometime due to international presence both parties’ whole
dialogues leading to the resolution of the conflict.

Cost and benefits

Cost:

According to government of Pakistan official sources more than sixty thousand Kashmiri’s were
killed till 1989 over the hands of Indian military security person. In 2016 439962 causalities has
been recorded in Jammu and Kashmir in which 6263 were soldiers and 14700 were civilians
Pakistan faced 1500 in 1947 to 1948 war, 3800 in 65 war and 7900 causalities were happened in
71 and 99 war a total of 13896 in only the direct confrontations involved.

India had 1104 in 47, 48 wars 3269 in 65 wars and 3843 in 71 wars and 522 causalities in 99
war making up a fig of 8733

Pakistan economic cost 2003 to 2007 18 billion and India economic cost 73 billion, Pakistan
military expenditure 2003-2007 655 billion and India military expenditure was 2489 billion.

Benefits:

Kashmiri will get the status of state along with the right of self-determination. India and Pakistan
will be able to cut short their defense expenditure an environment of cooperation and harmony
will be built. If Kashmir issue is resolved the whole region even the world will reap its benefits,
both Pakistan and India cannot prosper without the settlement of Kashmiri issues, if the issue is
resolved both of states will have improve relationships at bilateral level. Peace will prevail
throughout the region and stability at internal and external level could be ensured the whole

22
South Asia terrorism portal, 31 Dec 2017, (15.3.2018),)(
http://old.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/jandk/data_sheets/annual_casualties.htm).
region will be able to have better trade facilities and commodities without the rivalries and
economic status will also improve.

Conclusion:

The Kashmir problem is left over by history, 68 years have passed but the problem is still
unresolved. The important thing which is vital for the solution of such problem is the support
from international community, which is not available to Kashmiris for their cause. The UN also
did not play strong role (in the sense, only passed resolutions and did not implement it) in the
solution of the problem and did not hold plebiscite for the self determination of Kashmiri people.
The UN could play strong role as it played in the solution of East Timor and other problems

The US was tilted toward India due to India’s huge market and to use India as a deterrent
against China in the region. The silence of great powers on human rights violations on the part of
India in Kashmir has deadly consequences for Kashmir. US even went a step further in India’s
relations and supported India in branding Kashmiri freedom fighters as terrorists after 9/11. US
has two interests in doing so, first the disputed territory provide an opportunity to her to involve
in the region and kept her influence. Second, the Kashmir dispute provides a market for US
weapon sales to Pakistan and India. China also neutralized her stand on Kashmir because
supporting Kashmir’s right of self-determination will create problems for her in the provinces
where separatist/secessionist movements operate. On the other side the live Kashmir problem
will keep engage the Chinese main adversary (India).
Both countries have a long history of mistrust and blame game. The trust deficit and their on-off
relations keep the negotiations for the solution in a back and forth movement, sometimes when it
seems like they were near to a solution another moment both countries back to their strict stand
of past, making solution a distant possibility. Pakistan, time and again, asked for a third country
mediation especially of US in the back-drop of their failed bilateral negotiations but India always
rejects it.