MIL-STD-882 (Modified) Hazard Risk Matrix

Calibration Event
Introduce a known event with established probability or
severity to ‘calibrate’ probability estimates, i.e. risk of
death due to car accident during commute to work over 25
year working life.
Probability bins (over service life)

IDLog Description Individual Fleet/Inventory AIAA Combinatorial Hazard Risk Index Matrix
Threshold probability

A6 Frequent Occurs regularly Continuously > 8 X 10 -2 3 X 10 -1 Severity (log)

experienced.
Probability log IV 1 III 2 II 3 I4
B5 Probable Will occur several Occurs regularly. > 8 X 10 -3 3X 10- 2
times in the life. A6 (Frequent) 10(7) 6(8) 3(9) 1 (10)

B5 (Probable) 14(6) 9(7) 5(8) 2(9)

C4 (Occasional) 17(5) 13(6) 8(7) 4(8)

C4 Occasional Unlikely but can Will occur several > 8 X 10 -4 3 X 10- 3 D3 (Remote) 19(4) 16(5) 12(6) 7(7)
reasonably expect to times in the fleets life.
occur in life of item
E2 (Improbable) 20(3) 18(4) 15(5) 11(6)

D3 Remote Unlikely but possible Unlikely but can > 8 X 10 -5 3 X 10 -4 F1 (Impossible) 21(2) 21(3) 21(4) 21(5)
in life of item. reasonably expect to
occur in life of fleet. MIL-STD-882C risk acceptance curves corrected to log scale

E2 Improbable So unlikely it may not Unlikely but possible in > 8 X 10 -6 3 X 10 -5 Risk treatment
be experienced in life life of fleet.
of item
Risk Risk treatment Decision
F1 Impossible Virtually impossible So unlikely it may not > 8 X 10 -7 3 X 10 -6 Zone maker
to occur. be experienced in life
of fleet
1-6 Intolerable risk must be ---
Corrected MIL-STD-882C example probability definitions with log scale and AIAA/SETC threshold and combinatorial probability index, fleet numbers reduced.
Will affect cumulative risk and should be used to calibrate likelihood.
High

Severity bins (ALARP) Reduce risk until further risk Customer or

7-10 reduction is grossly Project
Medium disproportionate. Residual Sponsor
IDlog Description Mission Personnel Equipment Environment
risk must be quantitative or
semi-quantitatively assessed
I4 CATASTROPHIC Loss of mission Multiple deaths to Total loss of system, > Long-term (5 yrs or greater) and well understood.
area capability no single death $1M equipment damage or requiring >$2M to
reversionary damage. correct and/or in penalties. (ALARP) Reduce risk until further risk PM
capability 11-17 Low reduction costs exceed the
benefit gained. Residual risk
II3 CRITICAL Significant Multiple severe injuries, >$250K to $1M Medium-term (1-5 yrs) damage or may be more subjectively
degradation of to single. Greater than 2 equipment damage. requiring $500K-2M to correct assessed.
mission area weeks hospitalisation. and/or in penalties
capability 18-20 Broadly acceptable with IPT
V. Low periodic review.. Application of
III2 MARGINAL Degradation of Multiple Minor injuries $1K to $250K Short-term (<1 yr) damage or existing best practice is
mission area (OH&S reportable) to equipment damage. requiring $2K-$500K to correct deemed to reduce risk to this
single minor injury. and/or in penalties level. Without qualitative risk
assessment
IV1 NEGLIGIBLE Minor loss of No injury < $1K equipment Minor damage, readily repaired
21 Record only. IPT
mission functionality damage. requiring < $2K to correct and/or
in penalties Negligible

MIL-STD-882C example severity definitions with log scale. CC BY-NC