It was December 2007 and elections in Gujarat had just concluded.

The man accused as a

fascist, divider and communalist by a cosy coterie comprising academics, activists and select
journalists in the nation’s capital has just been returned with a majority similar to the one he got
in 2002. Narendrabhai Damodardas Modi was the Gujarat chief minister for the second
consecutive term, much to the chagrin, disgust and horror of Delhi’s intellectual elite. A
prominent television anchor and media owner began his traditional 9:00 pm flagship show by
expressing surprise at Modi’s victory and wondering whether the Gujarat leader was here to
stay in national politics! A funny point to make at that time given that Modi had been CM of
Gujarat for five years and before that a prominent BJP leader in Delhi!.

But the elite intellectual warriors of the nation’s capital then thought that Modi’s 2002 victory was
a fluke. Much like what they thought of the 2014 Lok Sabha results but we will come to that in a
bit. Back then, a few years after Modi’s 2002 victory it was fashionable to dismiss him as a one-
off affair. A rare event that will only happen once in a lifetime and which was also due to strong
communal polarisation caused by the tragic deaths of people in riots of 2002. This perception
was strengthened in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections when the BJP could win only about 15 or so
seats in Gujarat and the Congress won in double-digits. I remember a famous television
personality (not the one quoted above) saying that the 2004 LS performance in Gujarat shows
Modi’s 2002 victory was a fluke.

Cut to 2019 and the thinking of the intellectual elite remained the same. The 2014 BJP victory
was a fluke, a Black Swan event and one which will not be repeated. The party has maxed out
in many states and anti-incumbency and MGB’s caste arithmetic will ensure that the 2014
bumper win will not be repeated. Data analysts and economists who joined the Congress or
supported it from outside pushed this line of thinking which was eagerly lapped up by a section
of media and intelligentsia. A narrative was set but like all false narratives based on hope,
hysteria and hate, it had to collapse. And collapse it did on May 23.

It has been three full days since Narendra Modi’s epoch-making victory and all aspects of the
triumph have been analysed threadbare. Experts have pointed out to Modi’s soaring popularity,
the trust in his ability to deliver, the success of welfare economics, the decline of caste politics
etc etc. The BJP’s electoral machine, which hit high gear in 2014 Lok Sabha and the 2017 UP
elections has continued to deliver. This time, it has also conquered new territories. The party’s
high-decibel and thoroughly effective social media campaign not only neutralised media
criticism but also ensured that the BJP’s main message and the message of the PM reached
every nook and corner of the country. No doubt, this election will be remembered for new
records and also for setting new, difficult-to-beat benchmarks for campaigning.

But while the reasons for Modi’s victory are clear enough, what are the implications of
Thursday’s result for politics in the country? What, if any, is the political message that the
electorate has sought to convey to politicians and pundits? Very little attention has been
devoted to this but while analysing this we should ensure that we eschew the tokenistic,
superficial narrative that has seen the commentariat focus glibly about the end of caste and
dynastic politics in the country while ignoring the larger message.