Period year Month sale

1 1 january 2000
2 february 3000
3 march 3000
4 april 3000
5 may 4000
6 june 6000
7 july 7000
8 august 6000
9 september 10000
10 october 12000
11 november 14000
12 december 8000
13 2 january 3000
14 february 4000
15 march 3000
16 april 5000
17 may 5000
18 june 8000
19 july 3000
20 august 8000
21 september 12000
22 october 12000
23 november 16000
24 december 10000
25 3 january 2000
26 february 5000
27 march 5000
28 april 3000
29 may 4000
30 june 6000
31 july 7000
32 august 10000
33 september 15000
34 october 15000
35 november 18000
36 december 8000
37 4 january 5000
38 february 4000
39 march 4000
40 april 2000
41 may 5000
42 june 7000
43 july 10000
44 august 14000
45 september 16000
46 october 16000
47 november 20000
48 december 12000
49 5 january 5000
50 february 2000
51 march 3000
52 april 2000
53 may 7000
54 june 6000
55 july 8000
56 august 10000
57 september 20000
58 october 20000
59 november 22000
60 december 8000
Period year Month sale
1 1 january 2000 sale
2 february 3000 25000
3 march 3000
4 april 3000 20000
5 may 4000
6 june 6000 15000
7 july 7000
8 august 6000
10000
9 september 10000
10 october 12000
5000
11 november 14000
12 december 8000
0
13 2 january 3000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
14 february 4000
15 march 3000
16 april 5000
17 may 5000
18 june 8000
19 july 3000
20 august 8000
21 september 12000
22 october 12000
23 november 16000
24 december 10000
25 3 january 2000
26 february 5000
27 march 5000
28 april 3000
29 may 4000
30 june 6000
31 july 7000
32 august 10000
33 september 15000
34 october 15000
35 november 18000
36 december 8000
37 4 january 5000
38 february 4000
39 march 4000
40 april 2000
41 may 5000
42 june 7000
43 july 10000
44 august 14000
45 september 16000
46 october 16000
47 november 20000
48 december 12000
49 5 january 5000
50 february 2000
51 march 3000
52 april 2000
53 may 7000
54 june 6000
55 july 8000
56 august 10000
57 september 20000
58 october 20000
59 november 22000
60 december 8000
50 60 70
Period year Month sale Deseasonalised trend line seasonal factor sindex
1 1 january 2000 6067.506302166 0.3296247091 0.426609
2 february 3000 6137.75208665 0.488778295 0.474546
3 march 3000 6207.997871134 0.4832475884 0.462623
4 april 3000 6278.243655618 0.4778406453 0.3982
5 may 4000 6348.489440102 0.6300711433 0.621315
6 june 6000 6418.735224586 0.9347635928 0.834385
7 july 7000 6541.666666667 6488.98100907 1.0787518087 0.852882
8 august 6000 6625 6559.226793554 0.9147419641 1.151154
9 september 10000 6666.666666667 6629.472578038 1.5084156216 1.733
10 october 12000 6750 6699.718362522 1.7911200666 1.778078
11 november 14000 6875 6769.964147006 2.0679577758 2.123682
12 december 8000 7000 6840.20993149 1.1695547476 1.09472
13 2 january 3000 6916.666666667 6910.455715974 0.4341247702 0.426609
14 february 4000 6833.333333333 6980.701500458 0.5730083144 0.474546
15 march 3000 7000 7050.947284942 0.4254747453 0.462623
16 april 5000 7083.333333333 7121.193069426 0.702129538 0.3982
17 may 5000 7166.666666667 7191.43885391 0.6952711553 0.621315
18 june 8000 7333.333333333 7261.684638394 1.1016727383 0.834385
19 july 3000 7375 7331.930422878 0.4091691856 0.852882
20 august 8000 7375 7402.176207362 1.080763248 1.151154
21 september 12000 7500 7472.421991846 1.6059050216 1.733
22 october 12000 7500 7542.66777633 1.5909490323 1.778078
23 november 16000 7375 7612.913560814 2.1016920621 2.123682
24 december 10000 7250 7683.159345298 1.3015479116 1.09472
25 3 january 2000 7333.333333333 7753.405129782 0.2579511797 0.426609
26 february 5000 7583.333333333 7823.650914266 0.6390878191 0.474546
27 march 5000 7791.666666667 7893.89669875 0.6334007387 0.462623
28 april 3000 8041.666666667 7964.142483234 0.3766883888 0.3982
29 may 4000 8250 8034.388267718 0.4978599324 0.621315
30 june 6000 8250 8104.634052202 0.7403172014 0.834385
31 july 7000 8291.666666667 8174.879836686 0.8562816995 0.852882
32 august 10000 8375 8245.12562117 1.2128377977 1.151154
33 september 15000 8291.666666667 8315.371405654 1.803888157 1.733
34 october 15000 8208.333333333 8385.617190138 1.7887771001 1.778078
35 november 18000 8208.333333333 8455.862974622 2.1287005305 2.123682
36 december 8000 8291.666666667 8526.108759106 0.938294388 1.09472
37 4 january 5000 8458.333333333 8596.35454359 0.5816419012 0.426609
38 february 4000 8750 8666.600328074 0.4615419944 0.474546
39 march 4000 8958.333333333 8736.846112559 0.4578311153 0.462623
40 april 2000 9041.666666667 8807.091897043 0.2270897163 0.3982
41 may 5000 9166.666666667 8877.337681527 0.563231926 0.621315
42 june 7000 9416.666666667 8947.583466011 0.7823341382 0.834385
43 july 10000 9583.333333333 9017.829250495 1.108914321 0.852882
44 august 14000 9500 9088.075034979 1.5404802388 1.151154
45 september 16000 9375 9158.320819463 1.7470451533 1.733
46 october 16000 9333.333333333 9228.566603947 1.7337470364 1.778078
47 november 20000 9416.666666667 9298.812388431 2.1508122935 2.123682
48 december 12000 9458.333333333 9369.058172915 1.280811772 1.09472
49 5 january 5000 9333.333333333 9439.303957399 0.5297000735 0.426609
50 february 2000 9083.333333333 9509.549741883 0.2103148997 0.474546
51 march 3000 9083.333333333 9579.795526367 0.3131590848 0.462623
52 april 2000 9416.666666667 9650.041310851 0.2072529988 0.3982
53 may 7000 9666.666666667 9720.287095335 0.7201433385 0.621315
54 june 6000 9583.333333333 9790.532879819 0.6128369184 0.834385
55 july 8000 9860.778664303 0.8112949568 0.852882
56 august 10000 9931.024448787 1.0069454618 1.151154
57 september 20000 10001.27023327 1.9997459856 1.733
58 october 20000 10071.51601775 1.9857983609 1.778078
59 november 22000 10141.76180224 2.1692483445 2.123682
60 december 8000 10212.00758672 0.7833915057 1.09472
forecasting error Square Absolute Percentage intercept 5997.261
2588.44992 -588.45 346273.3 588.4499 29.4224962 slope 70.24578
2912.64733 87.35267 7630.49 87.35267 2.91175583
2871.96045 128.0395 16394.13 128.0395 4.26798486
2499.99824 500.0018 250001.8 500.0018 16.6667253 MSE 1850424
3944.41489 55.58511 3089.705 55.58511 1.38962787 MAD 1032.765
5355.69586 644.3041 415127.8 644.3041 10.7384023 MAPE 19.87971
5534.33766 1465.662 2148166 1465.662 20.9380334
7550.67847 -1550.68 2404604 1550.678 25.8446411
11488.8759 -1488.88 2216751 1488.876 14.888759
11912.624 87.37603 7634.571 87.37603 0.72813362
14377.2524 -377.252 142319.3 377.2524 2.69465973
7488.11506 511.8849 262026.2 511.8849 6.39856174
Chart Title
2948.05933 51.94067 2697.833 51.94067 1.73135559 25000
3312.66582 687.3342 472428.3 687.3342 17.1833545
3261.92795 -261.928 68606.25 261.9279 8.73093166 20000

2835.66091 2164.339 4684364 2164.339 43.2867817

15000
4468.15242 531.8476 282861.8 531.8476 10.6369516
6059.04014 1940.96 3767325 1940.96 24.2619982
10000
6253.27437 -3253.27 10583794 3253.274 108.442479
8521.04284 -521.043 271485.6 521.0428 6.51303551 5000
12949.7072 -949.707 901943.8 949.7072 7.91422684
13411.454 -1411.45 1992203 1411.454 11.762117 0
0 10 20 30 40 50
16167.409 -167.409 28025.78 167.409 1.04630643
8410.9087 1589.091 2525211 1589.091 15.890913 s al e trend l i ne forecasting

3307.66874 -1307.67 1709998 1307.669 65.383437

3712.68432 1287.316 1657182 1287.316 25.7463137
3651.89545 1348.105 1817386 1348.105 26.9620911
3171.32359 -171.324 29351.77 171.3236 5.71078624
4991.88996 -991.89 983845.7 991.89 24.7972489
6762.38442 -762.384 581230 762.3844 12.706407
6972.21109 27.78891 772.2236 27.78891 0.39698445
9491.40721 508.5928 258666.6 508.5928 5.08592787
14410.5385 589.4615 347464.8 589.4615 3.92974303
14910.2841 89.71588 8048.939 89.71588 0.59810587
17957.5657 42.4343 1800.67 42.4343 0.23574613
9333.70233 -1333.7 1778762 1333.702 16.6712792
3667.27815 1332.722 1776148 1332.722 26.6544371
4112.70281 -112.703 12701.92 112.7028 2.81757029
4041.86294 -41.8629 1752.506 41.86294 1.04657351
3506.98626 -1506.99 2271008 1506.986 75.349313
5515.62749 -515.627 265871.7 515.6275 10.3125498
7465.7287 -465.729 216903.2 465.7287 6.65326707
7691.1478 2308.852 5330798 2308.852 23.088522
10461.7716 3538.228 12519060 3538.228 25.2730601
15871.3699 128.6301 16545.71 128.6301 0.80393832
16409.1142 -409.114 167374.4 409.1142 2.55696373
19747.7224 252.2776 63644.01 252.2776 1.26138819
10256.496 1743.504 3039806 1743.504 14.5292002
4026.88755 973.1124 946947.8 973.1124 19.4622489
4512.72131 -2512.72 6313768 2512.721 125.636065
4431.83044 -1431.83 2050138 1431.83 47.7276812
3842.64893 -1842.65 3395355 1842.649 92.1324467
6039.36503 960.635 922819.5 960.635 13.7233567
8169.07297 -2169.07 4704878 2169.073 36.1512162
8410.08452 -410.085 168169.3 410.0845 5.12605646
11432.136 -1432.14 2051013 1432.136 14.3213596
17332.2012 2667.799 7117150 2667.799 13.338994
17907.9443 2092.056 4376697 2092.056 10.4602786
21537.879 462.121 213555.8 462.121 2.10054987
11179.2896 -3179.29 10107882 3179.29 39.7411201
hart Title

30 40 50 60 70
rend l i ne forecasting
Period year Month sale LT forecasting Seasonal factor SA forecasting
1 1 january 2000 4912.568306011 0.4071190211 3400
2 february 3000 5024.57164027 0.6106785317 3682.07763805
3 march 3000 5136.57497453 0.6106785317 3764.15527611
4 april 3000 5248.578308789 0.6106785317 3205.19409513
5 may 4000 5360.581643049 0.8142380423 5455.98687808
6 june 6000 5472.584977309 1.2213570634 7352.37834882
7 july 7000 5584.588311568 1.424916574 7957.57244396
8 august 6000 5696.591645828 1.2213570634 11132.1159103
9 september 10000 5808.594980087 2.0355951057 17262.963368
10 october 12000 5920.598314347 2.4427141268 18077.911427
11 november 14000 6032.601648606 2.8498331479 22103.8819027
12 december 8000 6144.604982866 1.6284760845 11507.2936031
13 2 january 3000 6256.608317125 0.6106785317 4330.21323127
14 february 4000 6368.611651385 0.8142380423 4667.0092947
15 march 3000 6480.614985644 0.6106785317 4749.08693275
16 april 5000 6592.618319904 1.0177975528 4025.97047567
17 may 5000 6704.621654163 1.0177975528 6823.9475123
18 june 8000 6816.624988423 1.6284760845 9158.086386
19 july 3000 6928.628322682 0.6106785317 9872.71733188
20 august 8000 7040.631656942 1.6284760845 13758.600328
21 september 12000 7152.634991201 2.4427141268 21257.4084199
22 october 12000 7264.638325461 2.4427141268 22181.7933297
23 november 16000 7376.64165972 3.2569521691 27028.5401859
24 december 10000 7488.64499398 2.0355951057 14024.34117
25 3 january 2000 7600.648328239 0.4071190211 5260.42646255
26 february 5000 7712.651662499 1.0177975528 5651.94095134
27 march 5000 7824.654996758 1.0177975528 5734.01858939
28 april 3000 7936.658331018 0.6106785317 4846.74685621
29 may 4000 8048.661665277 0.8142380423 8191.90814653
30 june 6000 8160.664999537 1.2213570634 10963.7944232
31 july 7000 8272.668333796 1.424916574 11787.8622198
32 august 10000 8384.671668056 2.0355951057 16385.0847458
33 september 15000 8496.675002315 3.0533926585 25251.8534718
34 october 15000 8608.678336575 3.0533926585 26285.6752324
35 november 18000 8720.681670834 3.6640711902 31953.1984691
36 december 8000 8832.685005094 1.6284760845 16541.388737
37 4 january 5000 8944.688339354 1.0177975528 6190.63969382
38 february 4000 9056.691673613 0.8142380423 6636.87260798
39 march 4000 9168.695007873 0.8142380423 6718.95024604
40 april 2000 9280.698342132 0.4071190211 5667.52323674
41 may 5000 9392.701676392 1.0177975528 9559.86878075
42 june 7000 9504.705010651 1.424916574 12769.5024604
43 july 10000 9616.708344911 2.0355951057 13703.0071077
44 august 14000 9728.71167917 2.8498331479 19011.5691635
45 september 16000 9840.71501343 3.2569521691 29246.2985238
46 october 16000 9952.718347689 3.2569521691 30389.557135
47 november 20000 10064.72168195 4.0711902113 36877.8567523
48 december 12000 10176.72501621 2.4427141268 19058.436304
49 5 january 5000 10288.72835047 1.0177975528 7120.8529251
50 february 2000 10400.73168473 0.4071190211 7621.80426463
51 march 3000 10512.73501899 0.6106785317 7703.88190268
52 april 2000 10624.73835325 0.4071190211 6488.29961728
53 may 7000 10736.74168751 1.424916574 10927.829415
54 june 6000 10848.74502177 1.2213570634 14575.2104975
55 july 8000 10960.74835602 1.6284760845 15618.1519956
56 august 10000 11072.75169028 2.0355951057 21638.0535812
57 september 20000 11184.75502454 4.0711902113 33240.7435757
58 october 20000 11296.7583588 4.0711902113 34493.4390377
59 november 22000 11408.76169306 4.4783092325 41802.5150355
60 december 8000 11520.76502732 1.6284760845 21575.483871
Error Square Error Absoulte Error percentage error Intercept 4800.5649718
-1400 1960000 1400 70 Slope 112.00333426
-682.078 465229.904 682.077638054 22.7359212685
25000
-764.155 583933.286 764.155276107 25.4718425369
-205.194 42104.6167 205.194095134 6.8398031711 20000
-1455.99 2119897.79 1455.98687808 36.3996719519
-1352.38 1828927.2 1352.37834882 22.5396391471 Month Sindex 15000
-957.572 916944.985 957.572443958 13.6796063423 january 0.6921023359
-5132.12 26338613.7 5132.11591033 85.5352651722 february 0.732814238 10000
-7262.96 52750636.9 7262.96336796 72.6296336796 march 0.732814238
-6077.91 36941007.3 6077.91142701 50.6492618917 april 0.6106785317 5000
-8103.88 65672901.9 8103.88190268 57.8848707334 may 1.0177975528
0
-3507.29 12301108.4 3507.29360306 43.8411700383 june 1.3434927697 0 10
-1330.21 1769467.24 1330.21323127 44.3404410425 july 1.424916574
-667.009 444901.399 667.009294697 16.6752323674 august 1.9541713014
-1749.09 3059305.1 1749.08693275 58.3028977583 september 2.9719688543
974.0295 948733.514 974.02952433 19.4805904866 october 3.0533926585
-1823.95 3326784.53 1823.9475123 36.478950246 november 3.6640711902
-1158.09 1341164.08 1158.086386 14.476079825 december 1.8727474972
-6872.72 47234243.5 6872.71733188 229.0905777292
-5758.6 33161477.7 5758.60032805 71.9825041006
-9257.41 85699610.7 9257.4084199 77.1450701658 Column1 Column2
-10181.8 103668915 10181.7933297 84.8482777474 MSE 56722985.415
-11028.5 121628699 11028.5401859 68.9283761618 MDA 5886.9591762
-4024.34 16195321.9 4024.34117004 40.2434117004 MAPE 76.455678233
-3260.43 10630380.7 3260.42646255 163.0213231274
-651.941 425027.004 651.94095134 13.0388190268
-734.019 538783.29 734.018589393 14.6803717879
-1846.75 3410473.95 1846.74685621 61.5582285402
-4191.91 17572093.9 4191.90814653 104.7977036632
-4963.79 24639255.1 4963.79442318 82.729907053
-4787.86 22923624.6 4787.86221979 68.3980317113
-6385.08 40769307.2 6385.08474576 63.8508474576
-10251.9 105100500 10251.8534718 68.3456898123
-11285.7 127366465 11285.6752324 75.2378348824
-13953.2 194691748 13953.1984691 77.5177692728
-8541.39 72955321.6 8541.38873701 106.7673592127
-1190.64 1417622.88 1190.63969382 23.8127938764
-2636.87 6953097.15 2636.87260798 65.9218151996
-2718.95 7392690.44 2718.95024604 67.9737561509
-3667.52 13450726.7 3667.52323674 183.3761618371
-4559.87 20792403.3 4559.86878075 91.1973756151
-5769.5 33287158.6 5769.50246036 82.4214637194
-3703.01 13712261.6 3703.00710771 37.0300710771
-5011.57 25115825.5 5011.56916348 35.7969225963
-13246.3 175464425 13246.2985238 82.7893657736
-14389.6 207059355 14389.557135 89.934732094
-16877.9 284862049 16877.8567523 84.3892837616
-7058.44 49821523.1 7058.43630399 58.8203025333
-2120.85 4498017.13 2120.8529251 42.4170585019
-5621.8 31604683.2 5621.80426463 281.0902132313
-4703.88 22126505 4703.88190268 156.7960634226
-4488.3 20144833.5 4488.29961728 224.4149808639
-3927.83 15427843.9 3927.82941498 56.1118487854
-8575.21 73534235.1 8575.21049754 142.920174959
-7618.15 58036239.8 7618.15199563 95.2268999453
-11638.1 135444291 11638.0535812 116.3805358119
-13240.7 175317290 13240.7435757 66.2037178786
-14493.4 210059775 14493.4390377 72.4671951886
-19802.5 392139602 19802.5150355 90.0114319797
-13575.5 184293762 13575.483871 169.6935483871
 linear Trend forecasting
25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
s al e LT forecasting

Seasonally Adjusted
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
sale SA forecasting
Period year Month sale three years Moving average Level
8216.6666666667
1 1 january 2000 7595
2 february 3000 7135.5
3 march 3000 6721.95
4 april 3000 2666.6666666667 6349.755
5 may 4000 3000 6114.7795
6 june 6000 3333.3333333333 6103.30155
7 july 7000 4333.3333333333 6192.971395
8 august 6000 5666.6666666667 6173.6742555
9 september 10000 6333.3333333333 6556.30682995
10 october 12000 7666.6666666667 7100.676146955
11 november 14000 9333.3333333333 7790.6085322595
12 december 8000 12000 7811.5476790336
13 2 january 3000 11333.3333333333 7330.3929111302
14 february 4000 8333.3333333333 6997.3536200172
15 march 3000 5000 6597.6182580155
16 april 5000 3333.3333333333 6437.8564322139
17 may 5000 4000 6294.0707889925
18 june 8000 4333.3333333333 6464.6637100933
19 july 3000 6000 6118.197339084
20 august 8000 5333.3333333333 6306.3776051756
21 september 12000 6333.3333333333 6875.739844658
22 october 12000 7666.6666666667 7388.1658601922
23 november 16000 10666.6666666667 8249.349274173
24 december 10000 13333.3333333333 8424.4143467557
25 3 january 2000 12666.6666666667 7781.9729120801
26 february 5000 9333.3333333333 7503.7756208721
27 march 5000 5666.6666666667 7253.3980587849
28 april 3000 4000 6828.0582529064
29 may 4000 4333.3333333333 6545.2524276158
30 june 6000 4000 6490.7271848542
31 july 7000 4333.3333333333 6541.6544663688
32 august 10000 5666.6666666667 6887.4890197319
33 september 15000 7666.6666666667 7698.7401177587
34 october 15000 10666.6666666667 8428.8661059828
35 november 18000 13333.3333333333 9385.9794953846
36 december 8000 16000 9247.3815458461
37 4 january 5000 13666.6666666667 8822.6433912615
38 february 4000 10333.3333333333 8340.3790521353
39 march 4000 5666.6666666667 7906.3411469218
40 april 2000 4333.3333333333 7315.7070322296
41 may 5000 3333.3333333333 7084.1363290067
42 june 7000 3666.6666666667 7075.722696106
43 july 10000 4666.6666666667 7368.1504264954
44 august 14000 7333.3333333333 8031.3353838459
45 september 16000 10333.3333333333 8828.2018454613
46 october 16000 13333.3333333333 9545.3816609152
47 november 20000 15333.3333333333 10590.8434948236
48 december 12000 17333.3333333333 10731.7591453413
49 5 january 5000 16000 10158.5832308071
50 february 2000 12333.3333333333 9342.7249077264
51 march 3000 6333.3333333333 8708.4524169538
52 april 2000 3333.3333333333 8037.6071752584
53 may 7000 2333.3333333333 7933.8464577326
54 june 6000 4000 7740.4618119593
55 july 8000 5000 7766.4156307634
56 august 10000 7000 7989.774067687
57 september 20000 8000 9190.7966609183
58 october 20000 12666.6666666667 10271.7169948265
59 november 22000 16666.6666666667 11444.5452953439
60 december 8000 20666.6666666667 11100.0907658095
16666.6666666667
Exponetial Forecasting
Alpha 0.1
8216.6666666667
7595
7135.5
6721.95
6349.755
6114.7795
6103.30155
6192.971395
6173.6742555
6556.30682995
7100.676146955
7790.6085322595
7811.5476790336
7330.3929111302
6997.3536200172
6597.6182580155
6437.8564322139
6294.0707889925
6464.6637100933
6118.197339084
6306.3776051756
6875.739844658
7388.1658601922
8249.349274173
8424.4143467557
7781.9729120801
7503.7756208721
7253.3980587849
6828.0582529064
6545.2524276158
6490.7271848542
6541.6544663688
6887.4890197319
7698.7401177587
8428.8661059828
9385.9794953846
9247.3815458461
8822.6433912615
8340.3790521353
7906.3411469218
7315.7070322296
7084.1363290067
7075.722696106
 7368.1504264954
8031.3353838459
8828.2018454613
9545.3816609152
10590.8434948236
10731.7591453413
10158.5832308071
9342.7249077264
8708.4524169538
8037.6071752584
7933.8464577326
7740.4618119593
7766.4156307634
7989.774067687
9190.7966609183
10271.7169948265
11444.5452953439
11100.0907658095
 Moving Averages
25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
s al e three yea rs Movi ng avera ge

Exponentail
25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
sale Exponetial Foreca sting
Period year Month sale level trend forecast error square error
4800.565 112.0033
1 1 january 2000 4912.568 112.0033 4912.568 -1912.57 3657917.525
2 february 3000 5024.572 112.0033 5136.575 -2136.57 4564952.622
3 march 3000 5136.575 112.0033 5360.582 -2360.58 5572345.693
4 april 3000 5248.578 112.0033 5584.588 -1584.59 2510920.117
5 may 4000 5360.582 112.0033 5808.595 191.405 36635.88165
6 june 6000 5472.585 112.0033 6032.602 967.3984 935859.5703
7 july 7000 5584.588 112.0033 6256.608 -256.608 65847.82842
8 august 6000 5696.592 112.0033 6480.615 3519.385 12386070.88
9 september 10000 5808.595 112.0033 6704.622 5295.378 28041031.83
10 october 12000 5920.598 112.0033 6928.628 7071.372 50004297.4
11 november 14000 6032.602 112.0033 7152.635 847.365 718027.4581
12 december 8000 6144.605 112.0033 7376.642 -4376.64 19154992.22
13 2 january 3000 6256.608 112.0033 7600.648 -3600.65 12964668.38
14 february 4000 6368.612 112.0033 7824.655 -4824.65 23277295.84
15 march 3000 6480.615 112.0033 8048.662 -3048.66 9294337.949
16 april 5000 6592.618 112.0033 8272.668 -3272.67 10710358.02
17 may 5000 6704.622 112.0033 8496.675 -496.675 246686.0579
18 june 8000 6816.625 112.0033 8720.682 -5720.68 32726198.78
19 july 3000 6928.628 112.0033 8944.688 -944.688 892436.0585
20 august 8000 7040.632 112.0033 9168.695 2831.305 8016287.958
21 september 12000 7152.635 112.0033 9392.702 2607.298 6798004.548
22 october 12000 7264.638 112.0033 9616.708 6383.292 40746412.35
23 november 16000 7376.642 112.0033 9840.715 159.285 25371.70695
24 december 10000 7488.645 112.0033 10064.72 -8064.72 65039735.81
25 3 january 2000 7600.648 112.0033 10288.73 -5288.73 27970647.57
26 february 5000 7712.652 112.0033 10512.74 -5512.74 30390247.39
27 march 5000 7824.655 112.0033 10736.74 -7736.74 59857171.94
28 april 3000 7936.658 112.0033 10960.75 -6960.75 48452017.68
29 may 4000 8048.662 112.0033 11184.76 -5184.76 26881684.66
30 june 6000 8160.665 112.0033 11408.76 -4408.76 19437179.67
31 july 7000 8272.668 112.0033 11632.77 -1632.77 2665932.523
32 august 10000 8384.672 112.0033 11856.78 3143.225 9879863.211
33 september 15000 8496.675 112.0033 12080.78 2919.218 8521835.491
34 october 15000 8608.678 112.0033 12304.79 5695.212 32435435.54
35 november 18000 8720.682 112.0033 12528.8 -4528.8 20509984.48
36 december 8000 8832.685 112.0033 12752.8 -7752.8 60105934.26
37 4 january 5000 8944.688 112.0033 12976.81 -8976.81 80583088.56
38 february 4000 9056.692 112.0033 13200.82 -9200.82 84654997.42
39 march 4000 9168.695 112.0033 13424.82 -11424.8 130526551.1
40 april 2000 9280.698 112.0033 13648.83 -8648.83 74802232.32
41 may 5000 9392.702 112.0033 13872.84 -6872.84 47235861.58
42 june 7000 9504.705 112.0033 14096.84 -4096.84 16784112.04
43 july 10000 9616.708 112.0033 14320.85 -320.848 102943.6854
44 august 14000 9728.712 112.0033 14544.86 1455.145 2117446.819
45 september 16000 9840.715 112.0033 14768.86 1231.138 1515701.462
46 october 16000 9952.718 112.0033 14992.87 5007.132 25071366.97
47 november 20000 10064.72 112.0033 15216.88 -3216.88 10348285.14
48 december 12000 10176.73 112.0033 15440.88 -10440.9 109012011.2
49 5 january 5000 10288.73 112.0033 15664.89 -13664.9 186729174.8
50 february 2000 10400.73 112.0033 15888.9 -12888.9 166123616
51 march 3000 10512.74 112.0033 16112.9 -14112.9 199173995.3
52 april 2000 10624.74 112.0033 16336.91 -9336.91 87177858.48
53 may 7000 10736.74 112.0033 16560.92 -10560.9 111532927.1
54 june 6000 10848.75 112.0033 16784.92 -8784.92 77174849.93
55 july 8000 10960.75 112.0033 17008.93 -7008.93 49125077.4
56 august 10000 11072.75 112.0033 17232.94 2767.065 7656648.302
57 september 20000 11184.76 112.0033 17456.94 2543.058 6467145.298
58 october 20000 11296.76 112.0033 17680.95 4319.052 18654206.62
59 november 22000 11408.76 112.0033 17904.96 -9904.96 98108135.14
60 december 8000 11520.77 112.0033 18128.96 -18129 328659254.1
11520.77
absolute error percentage error Aplha 0
Beta 0.109699
1912.56830601 95.6284153005
2136.57497453 71.2191658177 MSE 41526714
2360.58164305 78.6860547683 MAD 5302.556
1584.58831157 52.8196103856 MAPE 108.6408
191.405019913 4.7851254978
967.398351394 16.1233058566
256.608317125 3.6658331018
3519.38501436 58.6564169059 Holt's Fo
5295.37834584 52.9537834584
7071.37167732 58.928097311 25000

847.365008799 6.0526072057
4376.64165972 54.7080207465
3600.64832824 120.0216109413
4824.65499676 120.616374919
3048.66166528 101.6220555092 20000
3272.6683338 65.4533666759
496.675002315 9.9335000463
5720.68167083 71.5085208854
944.688339354 31.4896113118
2831.30499213 35.3913124016 15000
2607.29832361 21.7274860301
6383.29165509 53.1940971257
159.28498657 0.9955311661
8064.72168195 80.6472168195
5288.72835047 264.4364175234 10000
5512.73501899 110.2547003797
7736.74168751 154.7348337501
6960.74835602 232.0249452008
5184.75502454 129.6188756136
4408.76169306 73.479361551 5000
1632.76836158 23.3252623083
3143.2249699 31.432249699
2919.21830138 19.4614553425
5695.21163286 37.9680775524
4528.79503566 25.1599724203
0
7752.80170418 96.9100213022 0 10 20 30
8976.8083727 179.5361674539
s al e
9200.81504122 230.0203760304
11424.8217097 285.6205427434
8648.82837825 432.4414189127
6872.83504677 137.4567009354
4096.84171529 58.5263102184
320.84838381 3.2084838381
1455.14494767 10.3938924834
1231.13827915 7.6946142447
5007.13161063 31.2945725665
3216.87505789 16.0843752894
10440.8817264 87.00734772
13664.8883949 273.2977678985
12888.8950634 644.4447531722
14112.901732 470.4300577321
9336.90840048 466.8454200241
10560.915069 150.8702152714
8784.92173752 146.415362292
7008.92840604 87.6116050755
2767.06492544 27.6706492544
2543.05825692 12.7152912846
4319.0515884 21.595257942
9904.95508011 45.0225230914
18128.9617486 226.6120218579
 Holt's Forecast

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

s al e forecast
Period year Month sale Sindex level trend forecast error square error
5997.261 70.24578
1 1 january 2000 0.426609 6066.996 69.73573 2588.45 -588.45 346273.3138
2 february 3000 0.474546 6136.8 69.80417 2945.256 54.74393 2996.898408
3 march 3000 0.462623 6206.707 69.90703 2935.902 64.09812 4108.56953
4 april 3000 0.3982 6277.079 70.37194 2582.86 417.1395 174005.3671
5 may 4000 0.621315 6347.485 70.40541 4118.663 -118.663 14080.81436
6 june 6000 0.834385 6418.176 70.69126 5648.717 351.2832 123399.8562
7 july 7000 0.852882 6489.503 71.32675 5895.989 1104.011 1218841.042
8 august 6000 1.151154 6560.331 70.82805 8127.28 -2127.28 4525319.678
9 september 10000 1.733 6630.841 70.50974 12473.76 -2473.76 6119480.221
10 october 12000 1.778078 6701.368 70.5273 13043.87 -1043.87 1089669.263
11 november 14000 2.123682 6771.829 70.4609 15879.13 -1879.13 3531126.271
12 december 8000 1.09472 6842.462 70.63304 8338.876 -338.876 114837.2446
13 2 january 3000 0.426609 6913.139 70.67708 3310.777 -310.777 96582.40803
14 february 4000 0.474546 6984.35 71.21152 3750.158 249.8421 62421.07396
15 march 3000 0.462623 7055.351 71.00045 3725.28 -725.28 526030.5666
16 april 5000 0.3982 7128.359 73.00838 3261.801 1738.199 3021336.11
17 may 5000 0.621315 7201.681 73.32124 5200.101 -200.101 40040.47319
18 june 8000 0.834385 7275.857 74.17649 7110.18 889.82 791779.5767
19 july 3000 0.852882 7348.616 72.75931 7407.463 -4407.46 19425729.77
20 august 8000 1.151154 7421.201 72.58484 10134.53 -2134.53 4556219.124
21 september 12000 1.733 7493.575 72.3743 15502.52 -3502.52 12267657.3
22 october 12000 1.778078 7565.648 72.07216 16155.28 -4155.28 17266366.84
23 november 16000 2.123682 7637.681 72.03384 19587.37 -3587.37 12869248.4
24 december 10000 1.09472 7710.242 72.56078 10253.69 -253.688 64357.80816
25 3 january 2000 0.426609 7781.659 71.41645 4063.131 -2063.13 4256510.653
26 february 5000 0.474546 7854.067 72.40867 4573.908 426.0923 181554.6225
27 march 5000 0.462623 7927.542 73.47417 4537.913 462.0874 213524.8056
28 april 3000 0.3982 8000.843 73.30144 3975.957 -975.957 952492.3727
29 may 4000 0.621315 8073.539 72.69641 6291.804 -2291.8 5252365.485
30 june 6000 0.834385 8145.883 72.34317 8556.143 -2556.14 6533868.251
31 july 7000 0.852882 8218.222 72.33918 8860.186 -1860.19 3460293.295
32 august 10000 1.151154 8290.707 72.48575 12125.19 -2125.19 4516430.109
33 september 15000 1.733 8363.301 72.59385 18513.18 -3513.18 12342460.04
34 october 15000 1.778078 8435.895 72.59391 19259.24 -4259.24 18141136.14
35 november 18000 2.123682 8508.477 72.58184 23310.98 -5310.98 28206556.89
36 december 8000 1.09472 8580.588 72.11102 12174.85 -4174.85 17429333.3
37 4 january 5000 0.426609 8653.833 73.24536 4798.79 201.2104 40485.61784
38 february 4000 0.474546 8726.969 73.13518 5427.46 -1427.46 2037642.763
39 march 4000 0.462623 8800.047 73.07833 5356.819 -1356.82 1840957.909
40 april 2000 0.3982 8871.701 71.6545 4668.173 -2668.17 7119148.844
41 may 5000 0.621315 8943.025 71.32321 7337.448 -2337.45 5463661.803
42 june 7000 0.834385 9014.117 71.09213 9961.387 -2961.39 8769815.609
43 july 10000 0.852882 9086.185 72.06824 10295.21 -295.21 87149.03094
44 august 14000 1.151154 9159.364 73.17884 14109.91 -109.907 12079.58417
45 september 16000 1.733 9232.543 73.17884 21580.03 -5580.03 31136726.26
46 october 16000 1.778078 9305.608 73.06523 22401.6 -6401.6 40980465.32
47 november 20000 2.123682 9378.688 73.07963 27055.02 -7055.02 49773283.96
48 december 12000 1.09472 9452.326 73.63796 14107.12 -2107.12 4439957.305
49 5 january 5000 0.426609 9526.775 74.44939 5571.757 -571.757 326906.335
50 february 2000 0.474546 9599.232 72.45753 6287.379 -4287.38 18381622.74
51 march 3000 0.462623 9670.512 71.27909 6150.368 -3150.37 9924817.007
52 april 2000 0.3982 9740.046 69.53405 5326.735 -3326.73 11067162.5
53 may 7000 0.621315 9810.118 70.07275 8341.378 -1341.38 1799295.646
54 june 6000 0.834385 9879.197 69.07833 11342.67 -5342.67 28544099.9
55 july 8000 0.852882 9948.065 68.86818 11666.16 -3666.16 13440700.03
56 august 10000 1.151154 10016.44 68.37638 15891.31 -5891.31 34707563.54
57 september 20000 1.733 10085.36 68.91472 24112.78 -4112.78 16914959.1
58 october 20000 1.778078 10154.68 69.31919 25039.63 -5039.63 25397849.16
59 november 22000 2.123682 10224.04 69.36925 30250.81 -8250.81 68075821.61
60 december 8000 1.09472 10292.31 68.26525 15748.86 -7748.86 60044850.52
absolute error percentage error Alpha 0.00037
Beta 1
588.449924639 29.422496232 MSE 10501091 Gamma 0
54.7439348947 1.8247978298 MAD 2466.104
64.0981242291 2.136604141 MAPE 37.73219
417.139505532 13.9046501844
118.662607247 2.9665651812 intercept 5997.261
351.283156664 5.8547192777 slope 70.24578
1104.01134142 15.7715905917
2127.2798778 35.45466463
2473.75831905 24.7375831905 Chart Title
1043.87224444 8.6989353703
35000
1879.12912582 13.4223508987
338.876444396 4.235955555 30000
310.777103445 10.3592367815 25000
249.842098063 6.2460524516
20000
725.279647155 24.1759882385
1738.19909963 34.7639819927 15000
200.101157395 4.0020231479 10000
889.819968723 11.122749609
5000
4407.46296282 146.9154320939
2134.53018817 26.6816273522 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
3502.52156312 29.1876796927 s al e forecast
4155.28180057 34.6273483381
3587.37346871 22.4210841794
253.688407612 2.5368840761
2063.13127378 103.156563689
426.092269944 8.5218453989
462.087443627 9.2417488725
975.957157199 32.53190524
2291.80398046 57.2950995114
2556.14323761 42.6023872935
1860.18636028 26.5740908611
2125.18942899 21.2518942899
3513.18374715 23.421224981
4259.24126287 28.3949417525
5310.98455041 29.5054697245
4174.84530298 52.1855662873
201.210382036 4.0242076407
1427.46024919 35.6865062298
1356.81904055 33.9204760137
2668.17331603 133.4086658016
2337.44771134 46.7489542268
2961.38744656 42.3055349509
295.210147085 2.9521014708
109.907161582 0.7850511542
5580.02923448 34.8751827155
6401.59865346 40.0099915841
7055.01835288 35.2750917644
2107.12061938 17.5593384948
571.757234313 11.4351446863
4287.3794724 214.3689736201
3150.36775736 105.0122585788
3326.73450966 166.3367254832
1341.37826374 19.1625466248
5342.66786311 89.0444643851
3666.15602937 45.8269503672
5891.3125481 58.913125481
4112.77997173 20.5638998586
5039.62787865 25.1981393933
8250.80733097 37.5036696862
7748.86124015 96.8607655018
 50 60 70
t