ECM3730

UNIVERSITY OF EXETER

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING,
MATHEMATICS AND
PHYSICAL SCIENCES
MATHEMATICS

May 2015
Mathematics of Climate Change
Examiners: Hugo Lambert and Jim Haywood
Duration: 2 HOURS.
The mark for this module is calculated from 80% of the percentage mark for
this paper plus 20% of the percentage mark for associated coursework.

Answer Section A (50%) and any TWO of the three questions in

Section B (25% for each).

Marks shown in questions are merely a guideline. Candidates are permit-

ted to use approved portable electronic calculators in this examination.

This is a CLOSED BOOK examination.

 USEFUL FORMULAE

• Blackbody Radiation:

IBB = σ T 4

where T is the absolute temperature of the blackbody (in K), IBB is

the radiation per unit area emitted from the surface of the blackbody
(in W m−2 ), and σ = 5.67 × 10−8 W m−2 K−4 is the Stefan-Boltzmann
constant.

• The Ideal Gas Law:

p = ρ Ra T

where p is the pressure of the gas, T is the absolute temperature of the

gas, ρ is the density of the gas, and Ra = 287 JK−1 kg−1 is the specific
gas constant for dry air.

• Hydrostatic balance:
dp
= −ρ g
dz
where ρ is the density of the gas, p is the pressure of the gas, g is the
acceleration due to gravity, and z is the vertical coordinate (positive
upwards).

• The First Law of Thermodynamics for unit mass of a gas:

δQ = Cp dT − V dp

where δQ is the heat energy added to the gas, dT is the change in

absolute temperature of the gas, dp is the change in the pressure of the
gas, V is the volume of unit mass of gas, and Cp is the specific heat
capacity at constant pressure.

Page 2 of 7 ECM3730/continued . . .
 SECTION A
1. (a) (i) Explain the concepts of “forcings” and “feedbacks” in the
context of changes in Earth’s climate. [4]
(ii) Name four forcings that have been determined to drive
changes in Earth’s 20th century climate. [4]
(iii) Name one additional forcing different from named in part (ii)
that has been determined to drive changes in Earth’s climate
before the advent of human influence. [1]
(iv) Name three feedbacks on Earth’s climate, stating whether
each causes more surface warming or tends to reduce surface
warming. [6]

(b) (i) Derive an expression for the equilibrium blackbody tempera-

ture, also known as the effective temperature, of a spherical
planet with albedo A and radius R, subjected to plane-parallel
solar radiation, S. [4]
(ii) The Moon has albedo, AM = 0.1, while the Earth has albedo,
AE = 0.3. Given that S = 1365 Wm−2 , find a value for the
difference TM − TE , where TM is the blackbody temperature
for the Moon and TE is the blackbody temperature for the
Earth. [3]
(iii) The difference between the true surface temperatures of the
Moon and the Earth is about -65 K. Explain the difference
between this value and your value of TM − TE . [2]

(c) (i) Explain under what circumstances the First Law of

Thermodynamics may be written
Cp dT − V dp = 0, ♣
[1]
(ii) An air parcel of mass 1 kg obeys equation ♣. Given that the
atmosphere is in hydrostatic balance, show that the parcel’s
temperature obeys the adiabatic lapse rate, dT
dz
= − Cgp , as it
rises. [5]
(iii) The parcel continues to rise, but encounters a region where
surrounding atmospheric temperature is greater than the
temperature of the parcel. Describe and explain the parcel’s
subsequent motion. [2]

Page 3 of 7 ECM3730/continued . . .
 (iv) Name two places in the Earth’s atmosphere where
Cp dT − V dp 6= 0. [2]

(d) A simple model of global mean surface temperature change, TS′ ,

is written
dT ′
Q′ = λTS′ + c S ,
dt
where Q represents radiative forcing, λ is the radiative feedback
′

parameter and c is the heat capacity of the climate system.

(i) Identify the major source of c in Earth’s climate. [1]
(ii) Find TS′ as a function of time when Q′ = 0 for t < 0 and
Q′ = Q0 where Q0 is a positive constant for t ≥ 0. [6]
(iii) A carbon cycle feedback is introduced by rewriting the model
as
dT ′
Q′ + αTS′ = λTS′ + c S ,
dt
where α is a constant. Identify the major sources and sinks
of atmospheric CO2 in the climate system. [3]
(iv) Write down a solution for the new model when Q′ = 0 for
t < 0 and Q′ = Q0 for t ≥ 0. Explain the circumstances
which lead to α > 0 and α < 0 in terms of CO2 sources and
sinks. Hence, describe the consequences for future climate
change when the carbon cycle is a net source of CO2 . [6]
[50]

Page 4 of 7 ECM3730/continued . . .
 SECTION B
2. A simple one-layer model of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere has
surface temperature, TS , and uniform atmospheric temperature, TA .
Absorption and emission of longwave radiation by the atmosphere
is controlled by emissivity, ǫ. The proportion of incident shortwave
radiation reflected back to space is the albedo, A.

(a) Write down equations for energy balance at the top of atmosphere
and surface when no heat is gained or lost by the Earth and the top
of atmosphere is subject to insolation S. Hence derive expressions
for TS and TA . [6]
(b) Explain what is meant by positive and negative radiative
feedbacks in the context of climate change. [3]
(c) By considering the top of atmosphere equation, or otherwise, find
the radiative feedback for the one-layer model, given that A and
ǫ are constants. Is the feedback positive or negative? [3]
(d) A water vapour feedback is now introduced to the model by setting
dǫ
dTS
= γ, where γ is a positive constant. Find the new radiative
feedback for the model. Identify the component due to water
vapour and state whether it is a positive or a negative feedback. [4]
(e) It is decided to introduce a shortwave cloud feedback into the
model by decreasing the amount of cloud cover in proportion
to the increase in TS . Show how this could be done within the
model equations and hence find an expression for the component
of radiative feedback due to cloud. Is the feedback positive or
negative? [5]
(f) Identify two radiative feedbacks other than water vapour feedback
and cloud feedback that exist on Earth, very briefly showing how
they could be introduced into the one-layer model, but without
doing detailed calculations. [4]
[25]
Page 5 of 7 ECM3730/continued . . .
3. Surface sensible heat flux, H, and surface latent heat flux, LE, can be
parameterised over the ocean via the bulk formulae
H = CH ρCp u(Tskin − TS ),
LE = CH ρLu(qs (Tskin ) − q(TS )),
where CH is the bulk coefficient, ρ is density, Cp is the specific
heat capacity of air, u is wind speed, TS is standard near-surface
temperature, Tskin is actual surface “skin” temperature, L is the latent
heat of vapourisation, E is evaporation, q is specific humidity and qs is
saturation specific humidity.

(a) By expanding qs linearly around TS and using surface energy

balance R = H + LE, where R is the net downward heat flux
due to radiation, show that the latent heat flux can be written
L
CH ρLuδq + Cp
sR
LE = L
,
1+ Cp
s

dqs 
where s = dT 
and δq = qs (TS ) − q(TS ). [8]
(T =TS )

H
(b) The Bowen ratio is defined as B = LE . Find an expression for B
that does not depend on the unknown Tskin and show that in the
1
limit of a saturated atmosphere, B = Ls . [4]
(c) Over land, the above representation of LE is no longer sufficient.
Defining the aerodynamic resistance, rA = (CH u)−1 , and the
surface resistance, rS , we instead have
ρL
LE = (qs (Tskin ) − q(TS )).
rA + rS
Explain the role of rS . [1]
(d) Using the same expansion for qs as in part (a), derive the land
expression for LE, known as the Penman-Monteith equation:
ρLδq
µR + rA
LE = rA +rS ,
µ+ rA
sL
where µ = Cp
. [9]

(e) By making reference to your solutions to the previous parts,

but without doing detailed calculations, describe and explain the
difference between values of B over ocean and land. [3]
[25]
Page 6 of 7 ECM3730/continued . . .
4. (a) A purely scattering aerosol in the lower troposphere with a
wavelength independent reflectance Ra and a transmission Ta
exists above a planet with a surface reflectance of Rs . Using
diagrams, and listing appropriate assumptions show that the
planetary albedo when aerosols are included, Ras is given by:
Rs
Ras = Ra + Ta2 .
1 − Ra Rs
[8]

(b) By accounting for the mean solar constant, S0 , overlying

atmospheric transmission, Tat , cloud fraction, Ac , and assuming
that multiple scattering terms can be neglected, derive an
approximation for the aerosol global annual mean radiative
forcing, ∆Q, of a purely scattering aerosol layer lying in the
Earth’s troposphere. [8]

(c) The global mean radiative forcing of a partially absorbing

tropospheric aerosol with a single scattering albedo, ω0 , may be
written in terms of the backscatter fraction, β, and the optical
depth δ as:
   
(1 − Rs )2 − Rβs (1 − ω0 ) 2−δ
ω0
− (2β − 1)δ ω0 δβ
∆Q = k1 ,
1 − ω0 δβRs

where k1 accounts for the terms used in part (b). Stating your
assumptions derive an inequality relating the critical ω0 (i.e. the
value when the forcing swaps from negative to positive) in terms
of β and Rs . For a surface reflectance of 0.15 and a backscatter
fraction of 0.2, what is the critical single scattering albedo? [9]
[25]

Page 7 of 7 ECM3730/END OF PAPER