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Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Test Plans .............................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Test Plans Overview......................................................................................................................................................... 7
Failure Censoring ............................................................................................................................................................. 7
Time Censoring ................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Type I and Type II Errors.................................................................................................................................................. 8
Demonstration Test Plans ................................................................................................................................................ 8
Estimation Test Plans..................................................................................................................................................... 12
Accelerated Life Test Plans............................................................................................................................................ 16
Distribution Analysis............................................................................................................................................................. 23
Distribution Analysis Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 23
Estimation methods ........................................................................................................................................................ 23
Distribution Analysis Data............................................................................................................................................... 24
Goodness-of-fit statistics ................................................................................................................................................ 24
Stacked vs. Unstacked data ........................................................................................................................................... 25
Arbitrarily Censored Data ............................................................................................................................................... 25
Right Censored Data ...................................................................................................................................................... 64
Growth Curves ................................................................................................................................................................... 115
Growth Curve Overview ............................................................................................................................................... 115
Data - Growth Curves................................................................................................................................................... 115
Growth curves - exact data........................................................................................................................................... 115
Growth curves - interval data ....................................................................................................................................... 116
Growth curves - grouped interval data ......................................................................................................................... 117
Using Cost or Frequency Columns .............................................................................................................................. 118
Using Time and Retirement Columns .......................................................................................................................... 118
Parametric Growth Curve ............................................................................................................................................. 118
Nonparametric Growth Curve....................................................................................................................................... 130
Accelerated Life Testing .................................................................................................................................................... 141
Regression with Life Data Overview ............................................................................................................................ 141
Accelerated Life Testing ............................................................................................................................................... 141
Worksheet Structure for Regression with Life Data ..................................................................................................... 142
To perform accelerated life testing with uncensored/right censored data .................................................................... 142
To perform accelerated life testing with uncensored/arbitrarily censored data ............................................................ 143
Transforming the accelerating variable ........................................................................................................................ 143
Percentiles and survival probabilities ........................................................................................................................... 144
Accelerated Life Testing - Censor ................................................................................................................................ 144
Accelerated Life Testing - Estimate.............................................................................................................................. 144
To estimate percentiles and survival probabilities........................................................................................................ 145
Accelerated Life Testing - Graphs ................................................................................................................................ 145
To modify the relation plot ............................................................................................................................................ 145
Relation plot.................................................................................................................................................................. 146
Probability plot for each accelerating level based on fitted model................................................................................ 146
Probability plots ............................................................................................................................................................ 146
Accelerated Life Testing - Options ............................................................................................................................... 147
Accelerated Life Testing - Results................................................................................................................................ 147
Accelerated Life Testing - Storage ............................................................................................................................... 147
Example of Accelerated Life Testing ............................................................................................................................ 148
Output........................................................................................................................................................................... 150
Regression with Life Data .................................................................................................................................................. 151
Regression with Life Data Overview ............................................................................................................................ 151
Regression with Life Data ............................................................................................................................................ 151
Data - Regression with Life Data.................................................................................................................................. 151
Uncensored/arbitrarily censored data .......................................................................................................................... 152
Uncensored/right censored data .................................................................................................................................. 153
Failure times ................................................................................................................................................................. 153
To perform regression with uncensored/right censored data ....................................................................................... 154
To perform regression with uncensored/arbitrarily censored data ............................................................................... 154
Estimating the model parameters................................................................................................................................. 154
Factor variables and reference levels .......................................................................................................................... 154
Multiple degrees of freedom test .................................................................................................................................. 155
Regression with Life Data - Censor.............................................................................................................................. 155
Regression with Life Data - Estimate ........................................................................................................................... 155
To estimate percentiles and survival probabilities........................................................................................................ 156
Regression with Life Data - Graphs ............................................................................................................................. 156
Probability plots for regression with life data ................................................................................................................ 156
To draw a probability plot of the residuals.................................................................................................................... 156
Regression with Life Data - Options ............................................................................................................................. 157
To control estimation of the parameters ....................................................................................................................... 157
To change the reference factor level ............................................................................................................................ 157
Regression with Life Data - Results ............................................................................................................................. 157
To perform multiple degrees of freedom tests.............................................................................................................. 158
Regression with Life Data - Storage............................................................................................................................. 158
Example of Regression with Life Data ......................................................................................................................... 158
Default output ............................................................................................................................................................... 161
Probit Analysis ................................................................................................................................................................... 163
Probit Analysis Overview.............................................................................................................................................. 163
Probit Analysis.............................................................................................................................................................. 163
Data - Probit Analysis ................................................................................................................................................... 163
To perform a probit analysis ......................................................................................................................................... 164
Probit model and distribution function .......................................................................................................................... 164
Estimating the model parameters................................................................................................................................. 165
Factor variables and reference levels .......................................................................................................................... 165
Natural response rate ................................................................................................................................................... 165
Percentiles.................................................................................................................................................................... 166
Survival and cumulative probabilities ........................................................................................................................... 166
Probit Analysis - Estimate............................................................................................................................................. 166
To request survival probabilities ................................................................................................................................... 167
Probit Analysis - Graphs............................................................................................................................................... 167
To draw a survival plot.................................................................................................................................................. 167
Probability plots ............................................................................................................................................................ 167
Survival plots ................................................................................................................................................................ 168
Probit Analysis - Options .............................................................................................................................................. 168
To control estimation of the parameters ....................................................................................................................... 168
Probit Analysis - Results............................................................................................................................................... 168
To modify the table of percentiles ................................................................................................................................ 169
Probit Analysis - Storage .............................................................................................................................................. 169
Test Plans
Test Plans Overview
Use Minitab's test planning commands to determine the sample size and testing time needed to estimate model
parameters or to demonstrate that you have met specified reliability requirements.
A test plan includes:
• The number of units you need to test
• A stopping rule − the amount of time you must test each unit or the number of failures that must occur
• Success criterion − the number of failures allowed while the test still passes (for example, every unit runs for the
specified amount of time and there are no failures)
Three kinds of test plans are available: demonstration, estimation, and accelerated life.
Failure Censoring
Failure censoring is useful for:
• Testing lower percentiles − For any percentile, increasing the test duration improves the precision of your estimate.
However, you will see little improvement in precision when you run a test far beyond the estimated percentile. For
example, if you estimate the 10th percentile, you obtain important gains in precision by running the test until around
15% of the units fail, but little improvement by running the test longer. In fact, running the test beyond 15% of the units
failing could bias your estimate of the 10th percentile.
• Replacing test units − If you have a limited number of test positions, you can use failure censoring to determine when
to replace unfailed units. For example, if you want to estimate the 10th percentile, but can only test 5 units at a time,
you may want to replace all 5 units after the first failure in each group. In this case, you are failure-censoring when
20% of the units in each group have failed.
Time Censoring
Testing all units to failure in a life test usually does not make sense, especially if you are only interested in the lower
percentiles of the distribution. For any percentile of interest, the precision of your results depends on:
• Test duration
• Sample size
To minimize cost, you need to balance the test duration and sample size. For a given precision, Minitab displays a list of
sample sizes for each censoring time you provide. As time increases, the sample size decreases. Choose the time and
sample size combination that minimizes costs.
For an accelerated life test plan, you only need to provide one set of censor times. Each time in the set corresponds to the
censor time at a stress level. The first time corresponds to the lowest stress level, the second time corresponds to the
second stress level, and so on.
Maximum number of failures allowed: Enter one or more maximum number of failures your test allows.
Sample sizes: Choose to enter the number of units available for testing. Enter one or more sample sizes.
Testing times for each unit: Choose to enter the amount of time available for testing. Enter one or more test durations.
Note Each combination of maximum number of failures allowed and sample size or testing time will result in one test
plan. You may wish to request several test plans and compare the results.
Distribution Assumptions
Distribution: Choose one of seven common distributions: Weibull (default), exponential, smallest extreme value,
normal, lognormal, logistic, and loglogistic.
Shape (Weibull) or scale (other distributions): Enter the shape (Weibull) or scale (other distributions). For an
exponential distribution, Minitab assumes a shape value of one. See Specifying planning values.
Note Each combination of maximum number of failures allowed and sample size or testing time will result in one test
plan. You may wish to request several test plans and compare the results.
5 Under Distribution Assumptions, choose any distribution from Distribution. Then, enter an estimate of the shape or
scale in Shape (Weibull) or scale (other dists). See estimating the shape or scale.
6 If you like, use any dialog box options, then click OK.
• For the Weibull distribution, you know the shape parameter and wish to demonstrate the scale parameter.
• For the exponential distribution, you wish to demonstrate the scale parameter. The shape parameter is one.
• For the extreme value, normal, lognormal, logistic, and loglogistic distributions, you know the scale parameter and
wish to demonstrate the location parameter.
For more information, see Choosing between a 0-failure and m-failure test.
Increasing Power
The power of a test is the probability of correctly rejecting H0 when it is false. In a demonstration test, power is the
probability of correctly concluding that you have demonstrated a goal value.
You can increase the power of your demonstration test in two ways:
1 Reduce your goal value. As the improvement ratio increases, the power of the test increases. If the improvement ratio
is small, then the goal value is too large. Reduce the minimum value you want to demonstrate. This way, systems that
have improved or systems with high reliability values have a better chance of passing the m-failure test. However,
reducing the minimum value yields a weaker conclusion about the reliability of the systems.
2 Increase the maximum number of failures allowed in the m-failure test.
POP Graph
Use a POP (Probability of Passing) graph to choose a minimum value for the parameter you wish to demonstrate, so that
a system with high reliability has a high probability of passing the m-failure test.
The curve that appears on this graph shows you the likelihood of actually passing the demonstration test that you
specified in the dialog box. The likelihood that the test will pass depends on:
• How much the unit's life has truly improved. (The more the unknown true life has improved over the hypothesized
value, the more likely the test will pass.)
• The number of failures allowed.
• Testing time and sample size combinations.
Minitab uses the sample size and corresponding testing time to control the Type I error (α). You can adjust the Type I
error by changing the confidence level in the Options subdialog box. You can reduce the probability of a Type II error (β)
by choosing the minimum value of the unknown parameter. See Type I and Type II errors in a Demonstration Test.
The POP graph is a plot of the power of your test (probability of passing your test) against the improvement ratio or the
improvement amount. By increasing power, you are reducing the chance of making a Type II error. See Increasing Power.
Note Minitab displays the likelihood of passing as a percent. To re-scale this as a probability, you must edit the
displayed graph. Select the y-axis, right-click, and choose Edit > Y Scale. Click the Type tab and choose
Probability.
Actual
Failure Testing Sample Confidence
Test Time Size Level
1 8000 8 95.2122
Reliability at time: Choose to estimate the reliability at a specified time, then enter the time.
Precisions as distances from bound of CI to estimate: Choose to estimate the precision between the estimate and
lower bound or the estimate and upper bound, then enter the precision value. See Choosing the precision when
estimating a percentile or Choosing the precision when estimating a reliability.
Assumed distribution: Choose one of seven common distributions: Weibull (default), exponential, smallest extreme
value, normal, lognormal, logistic, and loglogistic.
Specify planning values for two of the following: Specify one value for the exponential distribution or two values for
the other distributions. See Specifying Planning Values.
Shape (Weibull) or scale (other distributions): Enter the shape (Weibull) or scale (other distributions). For the
exponential distribution, Minitab does not expect an entry because there is no shape parameter.
Scale (Weibull or expo) or location (other dists): Enter the scale (Weibull or exponential) or location (other
distributions).
Percentile: Enter a percentile. In Percent, enter a percent associated with the percentile.
Percentile: Enter a second percentile. In Percent, enter a percent associated with the percentile.
Planning Values
Percentile values 40000, 100000 for percents 5, 15
Actual
Censoring Sample Confidence
Time Precision Size Level
100000 20000 74 95.0516
Interpreting the results
To estimate the 5th percentile with a lower confidence bound within 20,000 cycles of the estimate, you must test 74
components for 100,000 cycles.
Specify planning values for two of the following: Specify planning values for two of the model parameters. If you
choose to specify planning values for two percentiles, they must be at different stress levels. See Specifying Planning
Values.
Percentile: Enter a percentile. In Percent, enter a percent associated with the percentile. In Stress, enter the stress
level.
Percentile: Enter a second percentile. In Percent, enter a percent associated with the percentile. In Stress, enter the
stress level.
Intercept: Enter the intercept for the relationship with the accelerating variable. See Choosing the Slope and Intercept.
Slope: Enter the slope for the relationship with the accelerating variable. See Choosing the Slope and Intercept.
9 If you like, use any dialog box options, then click OK.
Equally spaced in log time: Choose for equally spaced log inspection times. In First inspection time for each
stress level and Last inspection time for each stress level, enter the first and last times from the lowest stress level
to the highest stress level. You must have the same number entries as you have test stress levels.
Uncensored data
Power model
Planning Values
Percentile values = 1200, 600 for percents = 50, 50 at stresses = 110, 120
Distribution Analysis
Distribution Analysis Overview
Use Minitab's distribution analysis commands to understand the lifetime characteristics of a product, part, person, or
organism. For instance, you might want to estimate how long a part is likely to last under different conditions, or how long
a patient will survive after a certain type of surgery.
Your goal is to estimate the failure-time distribution of a product. You do this by estimating percentiles, survival
probabilities, cumulative failure probabilities, and distribution parameters and by drawing survival plots, cumulative failure
plots, or hazard plots. You can use either parametric or nonparametric estimates. Parametric estimates are based on an
assumed parametric distribution, while nonparametric estimates assume no parametric distribution.
Estimation methods
Minitab provides both parametric and nonparametric methods to estimate functions. If a parametric distribution fits your
data, then use the parametric estimates. If no parametric distribution adequately fits your data, then use the
nonparametric estimates.
For parametric estimates, you can choose either the least squares method or the maximum likelihood method. For
nonparametric estimates, available methods depend on the type of censoring.
Estimation methods
Estimate Method Results Available with
Exact failure time You know exactly when the The fan failed at exactly 500 days.
failure occurred.
Right censored You only know that the failure The fan had not yet failed at 500 days.
occurred after a particular time.
Left censored You only know that the failure The fan failed sometime before 500
occurred before a particular time. days.
Interval censored You only know that the failure The fan failed sometime between 475
occurred between two particular and 500 days.
times.
How you set up your worksheet depends, in part, on the type of censoring you have:
• When your data consist of exact failures and right-censored observations, see Distribution analysis (right censored
data).
• When your data have exact failures and a varied censoring scheme, including right-censoring, left-censoring, and
interval-censoring, see Distribution analysis (arbitrarily censored data).
Goodness-of-fit statistics
Minitab displays up to two goodness−of−fit statistics to help you compare the fit of distributions.
• Anderson−Darling statistic for the maximum likelihood and least squares estimation methods.
Note You cannot analyze more than one column of stacked data at a time, so the grouping indicators must be in one
column.
Command Description
Distribution ID Plot Draws probability plots from your choice of eleven common distributions:
Right Censored smallest extreme value, Weibull, 3-parameter Weibull, exponential, 2-
parameter exponential, normal, lognormal, 3-parameter lognormal, logistic,
Arbitrarily Censored
loglogistic, and 3-parameter loglogistic. These plots help you determine
which, if any, of the parametric distributions best fits your data.
Distribution Overview Plot Draws a probability plot, probability density function, survival plot, and
Right Censored hazard plot in separate regions on the same graph. These help you assess
Arbitrarily Censored the fit of the chosen distribution and view summary graphs of your data.
Parametric Distribution Analysis Fits one of eleven common parametric distributions to your data, then uses
Right Censored that distribution to estimate percentiles, survival probabilities, and
Arbitrarily Censored cumulative failure probabilities. Also draws survival, cumulative failure,
hazard, and probability plots.
For this observation... Enter in the Start Column... Enter in the End Column...
Right censored Time that the failure occurred after Missing value symbol '∗'
Left censored Missing value symbol '∗' Time before which the failure occurred
Interval censored Time at start of interval during which the Time at end of interval during which the
failure occurred failure occurred
This data set illustrates tabled data. For observations with corresponding columns of frequency, see Using frequency
columns.
Start End
* 10000 Left censored at 10000 hours.
10000 20000
20000 30000
30000 30000 Exact failures at 30000 hours.
30000 40000
40000 50000
50000 50000
50000 60000 Interval censored between 50000 and 60000
hours.
60000 70000
70000 80000
80000 90000
90000 * Right censored at 90000 hours.
When you have more than one sample, you can use separate columns for each sample. Alternatively, you can stack all
the samples in one column, then set up a column of grouping indicators, which can be numbers or text. For an illustration,
see Stacked vs. Unstacked data.
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling Correlation
Distribution (adj) Coefficient
Weibull 2.387 0.948
Lognormal 2.960 0.880
Exponential 6.411 *
Smallest Extreme Value 2.325 0.998
Table of Percentiles
Table of MTTF
For example,
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling Correlation
Distribution (adj) Coefficient
Weibull 67.606 0.986
Lognormal 67.656 0.982
Exponential 71.519 *
Normal 67.589 0.987
Table of Percentiles
Table of MTTF
Overview Plot
Parametric distribution analysis commands
You can use all parametric distribution analysis commands for both right-censored and arbitrarily-censored data. The
commands include Parametric Distribution Analysis, which performs the full analysis, and creates a Distribution ID Plot
and Distribution Overview Plot. These graphs are often used before the full analysis to help choose a distribution or view
summary information.
Command Description
Distribution ID Plot Draws probability plots from your choice of eleven common distributions:
Right Censored smallest extreme value, Weibull, 3-parameter Weibull, exponential, 2-
Arbitrarily Censored parameter exponential, normal, lognormal, 3-parameter lognormal, logistic,
loglogistic, and 3-parameter loglogistic. These plots help you determine
which, if any, of the parametric distributions best fits your data.
Distribution Overview Plot Draws a probability plot, probability density function, survival plot, and
Right Censored hazard plot in separate regions on the same graph. These help you assess
Arbitrarily Censored the fit of the chosen distribution and view summary graphs of your data.
Parametric Distribution Analysis Fits one of eleven common parametric distributions to your data, then uses
Right Censored that distribution to estimate percentiles, survival probabilities, and
Arbitrarily Censored cumulative failure probabilities. Also draws survival, cumulative failure,
hazard, and probability plots.
For this observation... Enter in the Start Column... Enter in the End Column...
Right censored Time that the failure occurred after Missing value symbol '∗'
Left censored Missing value symbol '∗' Time before which the failure occurred
Interval censored Time at start of interval during which the Time at end of interval during which the
failure occurred failure occurred
This data set illustrates tabled data. For observations with corresponding columns of frequency, see Using frequency
columns.
Start End
* 10000 Left censored at 10000 hours.
10000 20000
20000 30000
30000 30000 Exact failures at 30000 hours.
30000 40000
40000 50000
50000 50000
50000 60000 Interval censored between 50000 and 60000
hours.
60000 70000
70000 80000
80000 90000
90000 * Right censored at 90000 hours.
When you have more than one sample, you can use separate columns for each sample. Alternatively, you can stack all
the samples in one column, then set up a column of grouping indicators, which can be numbers or text. For an illustration,
see Stacked vs. Unstacked data.
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling Correlation
Distribution (adj) Coefficient
Smallest Extreme Value 2.325 0.998
• Probability plot, which displays estimates of the cumulative distribution function F(y) vs. failure time.
• Parametric survival (or reliability) plot, which displays the survival (or reliability) function 1-F(y) vs. failure time.
• Probability density function, which displays the curve that describes the distribution of your data, or f(y).
• Parametric hazard plot, which displays the hazard function or instantaneous failure rate, f(y)/(1-F(y)) vs. failure time.
When you select a nonparametric display, you get:
• For right-censored data with Kaplan-Meier method
- Kaplan-Meier survival plot
- Nonparametric hazard plot based on the empirical hazard function
• For right-censored data with Actuarial method
- Actuarial survival plot
- Nonparametric hazard plot based on the empirical hazard function
• For arbitrarily-censored data with Turnbull method
- Turnbull survival plot
• For arbitrarily-censored data with Actuarial method
- Actuarial survival plot
- Nonparametric hazard plot based on the empirical hazard function
The Kaplan-Meier survival estimates, Turnbull survival estimates, and empirical hazard function change values only at
exact failure times, so the nonparametric survival and hazard curves are step functions. Parametric survival and hazard
estimates are based on a fitted distribution and the curve will therefore be smooth.
For example,
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling Correlation
Distribution (adj) Coefficient
Weibull 67.606 0.986
Distribution Overview Plot Draws a probability plot, probability density function, survival plot, and
Right Censored hazard plot in separate regions on the same graph. These help you assess
Arbitrarily Censored the fit of the chosen distribution and view summary graphs of your data.
Parametric Distribution Analysis Fits one of eleven common parametric distributions to your data, then uses
Right Censored that distribution to estimate percentiles, survival probabilities, and
Arbitrarily Censored cumulative failure probabilities. Also draws survival, cumulative failure,
hazard, and probability plots.
For this observation... Enter in the Start Column... Enter in the End Column...
Right censored Time that the failure occurred after Missing value symbol '∗'
Left censored Missing value symbol '∗' Time before which the failure occurred
Interval censored Time at start of interval during which the Time at end of interval during which the
failure occurred failure occurred
This data set illustrates tabled data. For observations with corresponding columns of frequency, see Using frequency
columns.
Start End
* 10000 Left censored at 10000 hours.
10000 20000
20000 30000
30000 30000 Exact failures at 30000 hours.
30000 40000
40000 50000
50000 50000
50000 60000 Interval censored between 50000 and 60000
hours.
60000 70000
70000 80000
80000 90000
90000 * Right censored at 90000 hours.
When you have more than one sample, you can use separate columns for each sample. Alternatively, you can stack all
the samples in one column, then set up a column of grouping indicators, which can be numbers or text. For an illustration,
see Stacked vs. Unstacked data.
data fit to a Weibull and a 3-parameter Weibull distribution. The Weibull does not account for the threshold parameter and
displays as a curve on probability paper. The 3-parameter Weibull adjusts for γ and the points appear straighter.
Note The threshold parameter is assumed fixed when calculating confidence intervals with the 3-parameter
lognormal and 2-parameter exponential distributions.
Percentiles
By what time do half of the engine windings fail? How long until 10% of the blenders stop working? You are looking for
percentiles. The parametric distribution analysis commands automatically display a table of percentiles in the Session
window. By default, Minitab displays the percentiles 1-10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, and 90-99.
In this example, we entered failure times (in months) for engine windings.
Table of Percentiles
Confidence intervals: Choose to use two-sided confidence intervals (the default) or just an upper or lower confidence
interval.
When possible, both methods should be tried; if the results are consistent, then there is more support for your
conclusions. Otherwise, you may want to use the more conservative estimates or consider the advantages of both
approaches and make a choice for your problem.
Note If your data come from a three−parameter Weibull or two−parameter exponential, you must also provide a
historical value for the threshold parameter.
For example, your reliability specifications require that the 5th percentile is at least 12 months. You run a Bayes analysis
on data with no failures, and then examine the lower confidence bound to substantiate that the product is at least as good
as specifications require. If the lower confidence bound for the 5th percentile is 13.1 months, you conclude that your
product meets specifications and terminate the test. See Demonstration Test Plans to determine the optimal testing time
or number of test units to use.
• Whether the distribution parameters (scale, shape, location, or threshold) are consistent with specified values
• Whether the sample comes from the historical distribution
• Whether two or more samples come from the same population
• Whether two or more samples share the same shape, scale, location, or threshold parameters
Dialog box items
Consistency of Sample with Value
Test shape (slope−Weibull) or scale (1/slope−other dists) equal to: Enter a test value to compare the sample's
shape (Weibull) or scale (other distributions).
Test scale (Weibull or expo) or location (other dists) equal to: Enter a test value to compare the sample's scale
(Weibull or exponential) or location (other distributions).
Test threshold equal to: Enter a test value to compare the sample's threshold.
Equality of Parameters
Test for equal shape (slope−Weibull) or scale (1/slope−other distributions): Check to test whether two or more
samples have the same shape or scale.
Test for equal scale (Weibull or expo) or location (other distributions): Check to test whether two or more samples
have the same scale or location.
Test for equal threshold: Check to test whether two or more samples have the same threshold.
Note For 2-parameter distributions, check the first two Equality of Parameters options to test whether two or more
samples come from the same population. For 3-parameter distributions, check all Equality of Parameters
options, to test the same.
To determine whether two or more samples come from the same population
1 In the main dialog box, click Test.
2 Do the following:
• Check Test for equal shape (slope−Weibull) or scale (1/slope−other dists).
• Check Test for equal scale (Weibull or expo) or location (other distributions).
• Check Test for equal threshold.
3 Click OK.
• In Test scale (Weibull or expo) or location (other dists) equal to, enter the parameter of a historical
distribution.
• In Test threshold equal to, enter the parameter of a historical distribution.
3 Click OK.
To... Do...
Specify the method used to See Tools > Options > Individual Graphs > Probability Plots to choose Median
obtain the plot points
Rank (Benard), Mean Rank (Herd−Johnson), modified Kaplan−Meier (Hazen),
or Kaplan−Meier method.
Choose what to plot when you For Parametric Distribution Analysis (Right Censoring)
have tied failure times
Under Handle tied failure times by plotting, choose All points (default),
Maximum of the tied points, or Average (median) of tied points.
Turn off the 95.0% confidence Uncheck Display confidence intervals on above plots.
interval
Choose how plots are Choose Overlaid on the same graph to have multiple samples plotted on the
displayed same graph, In separate panels on the same graph to have multiple samples
plotted in separate panels all on the same graph, or On separate graphs to have
each plot displayed separately.
Specify a minimum and/or In Minimum X scale or Maximum X scale, enter values for the scale minimum
maximum value for the x-axis and maximum.
scale
Enter a label for the x-axis In X axis label, type a label.
3 Click OK.
4 To change the confidence level for the 95.0% confidence interval to some other level, click Estimate. In Confidence
level, enter a value. Click OK.
5 To change the method used to obtain the fitted line, click Estimate. In Estimation Method, choose Least Squares
(default) or Maximum Likelihood. Click OK.
To draw a parametric hazard plot, check Hazard plot in the Graphs subdialog box.
Probability plots
Use a probability plot to assess whether a particular distribution fits your data. The plot consists of:
• Plot points, which represent the proportion of failures up to a certain time. Minitab calculates the plot points using a
nonparametric method. The observed failure times are plotted on the x-axis vs. the estimated cumulative probabilities
(p) on the y-axis. Transformations of both the x and y data are needed to ensure that the plotted y values are a linear
function of the plotted x values if the data are sampled from the particular distribution.
• Fitted line, which is a graphical representation of the percentiles. To make the fitted line, Minitab first calculates the
percentiles for the various percents, based on the chosen distribution. The associated probabilities are then
transformed and used as the y-variables. The percentiles may be transformed, depending on the distribution, and are
used as the x-variables. The transformed scales, chosen to linearize the fitted line, differ depending on the distribution
used.
• Confidence intervals, set of approximate 95.0% confidence intervals for the fitted line.
For more information on probability plot calculations, see Methods and formulas - parametric distribution analysis.
Because the plot points do not depend on any distribution, they would be the same (before being transformed) for any
probability plot made. The fitted line, however, differs depending on the parametric distribution chosen. So you can use
the probability plot to assess whether a particular distribution fits your data. In general, the closer the points fall to the
fitted line, the better the fit. Minitab provides two goodness of fit measures to help assess how the distribution fits your
data.
To choose from various methods to estimate the plot points, see Tools > Options > Individual Graphs > Probability Plots.
To choose from various methods to obtain the fitted line, see Parametric Distribution Analysis − Estimate.
Tip To quickly compare the fit of up to eleven different distributions at once, see Distribution ID Plot (Right
Censoring) or Distribution ID Plot (Arbitrary Censoring).
The Weibull probability plot below shows failure times associated with running engine windings at a temperature of 80° C:
Survival plots
Survival (or reliability) plots display the survival probabilities versus time. Each plot point represents the proportion of units
surviving at time t. The survival curve is surrounded by two outer lines − the approximate 95.0% confidence interval for the
curve, which provide reasonable values for the "true" survival function.
To... Do...
Specify the method used to See Tools > Options > Individual Graphs > Probability Plots to choose Median
obtain the plot points
Rank (Benard), Mean Rank (Herd−Johnson), modified Kaplan−Meier (Hazen),
or Kaplan−Meier method.
Choose what to plot when you For Parametric Distribution Analysis (Right Censoring)
have tied failure times
Under Handle tied failure times by plotting, choose All points (default),
Maximum of the tied points, or Average (median) of tied points.
Turn off the 95.0% confidence Uncheck Display confidence intervals on above plots.
interval
Choose how plots are Choose Overlaid on the same graph to have multiple samples plotted on the
displayed same graph, In separate panels on the same graph to have multiple samples
plotted in separate panels all on the same graph, or On separate graphs to have
each plot displayed separately.
Specify a minimum and/or In Minimum X scale or Maximum X scale, enter values for the scale minimum
maximum value for the x-axis and maximum.
scale
Enter a label for the x-axis In X axis label, type a label.
3 Click OK.
4 To change the confidence level for the 95.0% confidence interval to some other level, click Estimate. In Confidence
level, enter a value. Click OK.
5 To change the method used to obtain the fitted line, click Estimate. In Estimation Method, choose Least Squares
(default) or Maximum Likelihood. Click OK.
Case Enter
A single variable with a single failure mode. • Enter one column containing values for each parameter of your
distribution.
Two or more variables, each with a single • Enter a single column containing values for each parameter for
failure mode. each variable.
• Enter one column of parameter estimates for each variable.
A By variable with several group levels. • Enter a single column containing values for each parameter for
all group levels.
• Enter one column of values for each group level. If there are four
group levels, enter four columns containing parameter estimates.
Case Enter
A single variable with a multiple failure • Enter a single column containing values for each parameter for
modes. each failure mode.
• Enter one column of parameter estimates for each failure mode.
If there are three failure modes, enter three columns of
parameter estimates.
Two or more variables, each with multiple • Enter a single column containing values for each parameter for
failure modes. each failure mode and variable.
• Enter one column of parameter estimates for each failure mode
of each variable. If there are two variables with two failure
modes, enter four columns of parameter estimates.
A By variable with several group levels and • Enter a single column containing values for each parameter for
multiple failure modes. each failure mode of each group level.
• Enter one column of parameter estimates for each failure mode
of each group level. If there are two group levels with three
failure modes each, enter six columns of parameter estimates.
Parameter estimates are assigned by failure mode then variable. Normally, the first column should contain the parameter
estimates of failure mode 1, variable 1; the second column − parameter estimates of failure mode 1, variable 2, etc. If
variable 2 does not have failure mode 1, the second column contains the parameter estimates of failure mode 2, variable
1.
Caution Do not enter starting estimates or historical estimates for failure modes that you have eliminated from the
analysis.
Parameter Estimates
Log-Likelihood = -1468.686
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling (adjusted) = 2.325
Correlation Coefficient = 0.998
Characteristics of Distribution
Table of Percentiles
95.0% Normal CI
Time Probability Lower Upper
45000 0.896380 0.877714 0.912340
To see the times at which various percentages or proportions of the tires fail, look at the Table of Percentiles. For
example, 5% of the tires fail by 33,699.7 miles and 50% fail by 72,547.7 miles.
In the Table of Survival Probabilities, you can see that 89.64% of the tires last past 45,000 miles.
Variable: Temp80
Distribution: Weibull
Parameter Estimates
Log-Likelihood = -202.258
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling (adjusted) = 67.606
Correlation Coefficient = 0.986
Characteristics of Distribution
Table of Percentiles
Note From the Results subdialog box, you can request additional output and display Session window output for each
failure mode.
Nonparametric Distribution Analysis Gives you nonparametric estimates of the survival probabilities,
Right Censored cumulative failure probabilities, hazard rates, and other estimates
depending on the nonparametric technique chosen, and draw survival,
Arbitrary Censored
cumulative failure, and hazard plots. When you have multiple samples,
Nonparametric Distribution Analysis - Right Censoring also tests the
equality of their survival curves.
By variable: If all of the samples are stacked in one column, check By variable, and enter a column of grouping
indicators in the box.
For this observation... Enter in the Start Column... Enter in the End Column...
Right censored Time that the failure occurred after Missing value symbol '∗'
Left censored Missing value symbol '∗' Time before which the failure occurred
Interval censored Time at start of interval during which the Time at end of interval during which the
failure occurred failure occurred
This data set illustrates tabled data. For observations with corresponding columns of frequency, see Using frequency
columns.
Start End
* 10000 Left censored at 10000 hours.
10000 20000
20000 30000
30000 30000 Exact failures at 30000 hours.
30000 40000
40000 50000
50000 50000
50000 60000 Interval censored between 50000 and 60000
hours.
60000 70000
70000 80000
80000 90000
90000 * Right censored at 90000 hours.
When you have more than one sample, you can use separate columns for each sample. Alternatively, you can stack all
the samples in one column, then set up a column of grouping indicators, which can be numbers or text. For an illustration,
see Stacked vs. Unstacked data.
6 If you like, use any of the dialog box options, then click OK.
Tip To display Session window output for all of the failure modes, click Results, then check Display analyses for
individual failure modes according to display of results.
Turnbull Estimates
More To display hazard and density estimates in the Actuarial table, from the main dialog box, click Results. Do one
of the following and then click :
With Nonparametric Distribution Analysis (Right Censoring), choose In addition, hazard, density (actuarial
method) estimates and log-rank and Wilcoxon statistics.
With Nonparametric Distribution Analysis (Arbitrary Censoring), choose In addition, hazard and density
estimates (actuarial method).
• Nonparametric Distribution Analysis (Arbitrary Censoring) only plots Actuarial estimates. Since the Actuarial method is
not the default estimation method, be sure to choose Actuarial method in the Estimate subdialog box when you want
to draw a hazard plot.
Turnbull Estimates
Kaplan−Meier estimates
• Censoring information
• Characteristics of the variable, including the mean, its standard error and 95% confidence intervals, median,
interquartile range, Q1, and Q3
• Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival probabilities and their
- Standard error
- 95% confidence intervals
For example,
Variable: Temp80
Nonparametric Estimates
Characteristics of Variable
Median = 55
IQR = * Q1 = 48 Q3 = *
Kaplan-Meier Estimates
Number
at Number Survival Standard 95.0% Normal CI
Time Risk Failed Probability Error Lower Upper
23 50 1 0.980000 0.0197990 0.941195 1.00000
24 49 1 0.960000 0.0277128 0.905684 1.00000
27 48 2 0.920000 0.0383667 0.844803 0.99520
31 46 1 0.900000 0.0424264 0.816846 0.98315
34 45 1 0.880000 0.0459565 0.789927 0.97007
35 44 1 0.860000 0.0490714 0.763822 0.95618
37 43 1 0.840000 0.0518459 0.738384 0.94162
40 42 1 0.820000 0.0543323 0.713511 0.92649
41 41 1 0.800000 0.0565685 0.689128 0.91087
45 40 1 0.780000 0.0585833 0.665179 0.89482
46 39 1 0.760000 0.0603987 0.641621 0.87838
48 38 3 0.700000 0.0648074 0.572980 0.82702
49 35 1 0.680000 0.0659697 0.550702 0.80930
50 34 1 0.660000 0.0669925 0.528697 0.79130
51 33 4 0.580000 0.0697997 0.443195 0.71680
52 29 1 0.560000 0.0701997 0.422411 0.69759
53 28 1 0.540000 0.0704840 0.401854 0.67815
54 27 1 0.520000 0.0706541 0.381521 0.65848
55 26 1 0.500000 0.0707107 0.361410 0.63859
56 25 1 0.480000 0.0706541 0.341521 0.61848
58 24 2 0.440000 0.0701997 0.302411 0.57759
59 22 1 0.420000 0.0697997 0.283195 0.55680
60 21 1 0.400000 0.0692820 0.264210 0.53579
61 20 1 0.380000 0.0686440 0.245460 0.51454
62 19 1 0.360000 0.0678823 0.226953 0.49305
64 18 1 0.340000 0.0669925 0.208697 0.47130
66 17 1 0.320000 0.0659697 0.190702 0.44930
67 16 2 0.280000 0.0634980 0.155546 0.40445
74 13 1 0.258462 0.0621592 0.136632 0.38029
Turnbull estimates
• Censoring information
• Turnbull estimates of the probability of failure and their standard errors
• Turnbull estimates of the survival probabilities and their standard errors and 95% confidence intervals
For example,
Turnbull Estimates
Variable: Temp80
Nonparametric Estimates
Characteristics of Variable
Proportion
of Running Additional Standard 95.0% Normal CI
Time T Units Time Error Lower Upper
20 1.00 36.1905 3.36718 29.5909 42.7900
40 0.84 20.0000 3.08607 13.9514 26.0486
Actuarial Table
Conditional
Interval Number Number Number Probability Standard
Lower Upper Entering Failed Censored of Failure Error
0 20 50 0 0 0.000000 0.000000
20 40 50 8 0 0.160000 0.051846
40 60 42 21 0 0.500000 0.077152
60 80 21 8 4 0.421053 0.113269
80 100 9 0 6 0.000000 0.000000
100 120 3 0 3 0.000000 0.000000
Note From the Results subdialog box, you can request additional output and display Session window output for each
failure mode.
Note For observations with corresponding columns of frequency, see Using frequency columns.
Singly censored data
You can define the censoring in one of the following ways:
• Censoring columns − Enter two columns for each sample, one column of failure times and a corresponding column
of censoring indicators. The columns for each sample must be the same length, although pairs of columns from
different samples can have different lengths.
Censoring indicators can be numbers or text. If you do not enter a censoring value in the Censor subdialog box,
Minitab assumes the lower of the two values indicates censoring, while the higher one indicates an exact failure.
• Time Censoring − Enter a column of failure times and the time at which to begin censoring.
Time censoring means that you run the study for a specified period of time. All units still running at the end time are
time censored. This is known as Type I censoring on the right. In the example above, units are time censored at 70
months.
• Failure Censoring − Enter a column of failure times and the number of failures at which to begin censoring.
Failure censoring means that you run the study until you observe a specified number of failures. This is known as
Type II censoring on the right. You specify the number of failures at which to begin censoring. In the example above,
units are failure censored at 7.
Multiply censored data
You must define the censoring using censoring columns.
150 F 150 F 4
150 F 151 C 1
150 F 151 F 35
150 F 153 F 42
151 C 161 C 1
151 F 170 F 39
151 F 199 F 1
. . . . .
. . . . .
etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.
Frequency columns are useful for data where you have large numbers of observations with common failure and censoring
times. For example, warranty data usually includes large numbers of observations with common censoring times.
Note You cannot analyze more than one column of stacked data at a time, so the grouping indicators must be in one
column.
Distribution ID Plot
Parametric distribution analysis commands
You can use all parametric distribution analysis commands for both right-censored and arbitrarily-censored data. The
commands include Parametric Distribution Analysis, which performs the full analysis, and creates a Distribution ID Plot
and Distribution Overview Plot. These graphs are often used before the full analysis to help choose a distribution or view
summary information.
Command Description
Distribution ID Plot Draws probability plots from your choice of eleven common distributions:
Right Censored smallest extreme value, Weibull, 3-parameter Weibull, exponential, 2-
Arbitrarily Censored parameter exponential, normal, lognormal, 3-parameter lognormal, logistic,
loglogistic, and 3-parameter loglogistic. These plots help you determine
which, if any, of the parametric distributions best fits your data.
Distribution Overview Plot Draws a probability plot, probability density function, survival plot, and
Right Censored hazard plot in separate regions on the same graph. These help you assess
Arbitrarily Censored the fit of the chosen distribution and view summary graphs of your data.
Parametric Distribution Analysis Fits one of eleven common parametric distributions to your data, then uses
Right Censored that distribution to estimate percentiles, survival probabilities, and
Arbitrarily Censored cumulative failure probabilities. Also draws survival, cumulative failure,
hazard, and probability plots.
By variable: If all of the samples are stacked in one column, check By variable, then enter a column of grouping
indicators.
Use all distributions: Choose to have Minitab fit all eleven distributions.
Specify: Choose to fit up to four distributions.
Distribution 1: Check and choose one of eleven distributions: smallest extreme value, Weibull (default), 3-parameter
Weibull, exponential, 2-parameter exponential, normal, lognormal, 3-parameter lognormal, logistic, loglogistic, or 3-
parameter loglogistic.
Distribution 2: Check and choose one of eleven distributions: smallest extreme value, Weibull, 3-parameter Weibull,
exponential, 2-parameter exponential, normal, lognormal (default), 3-parameter lognormal, logistic, loglogistic, or 3-
parameter loglogistic.
Distribution 3: Check and choose one of eleven distributions: smallest extreme value, Weibull, 3-parameter Weibull,
exponential (default), 2-parameter exponential, normal, lognormal, 3-parameter lognormal, logistic, loglogistic, or 3-
parameter loglogistic.
Distribution 4: Check and choose one of eleven distributions: smallest extreme value, Weibull, 3-parameter Weibull,
exponential, 2-parameter exponential, normal (default), lognormal, 3-parameter lognormal, logistic, loglogistic, or 3-
parameter loglogistic.
Note Occasionally, you may have life data with no failures. Under certain conditions, Minitab allows you to draw
conclusions based on that data. See Drawing conclusions when you have few or no failures.
Note If you have no censored values, you can skip steps 6 & 7.
6 Click Censor.
7 Do one of the following, then click OK.
• For data with censoring columns: Choose Use censoring columns, then enter the censoring columns in the box.
The first censoring column is paired with the first data column, the second censoring column is paired with the
second data column, and so on.
If you like, enter the value you use to indicate censoring in Censoring value. If you do not enter a value, Minitab
uses the lowest value in the censoring column.
• For time censored data: Choose Time censor at, then enter a failure time at which to begin censoring. For
example, entering 500 says that any observation from 500 time units onward is considered censored.
• For failure censored data: Choose Failure censor at, then enter a number of failures at which to begin censoring.
For example, entering 150 says to make all (ordered) observations starting with the 150th observation censored,
and all other observations uncensored.
8 If you like, use any of the available dialog box options, then click OK.
Censor
Stat > Reliability/Survival > Distribution Analysis (Right Censoring) > distribution analysis command > Censor
Allows you to designate which observations are censored.
Dialog box items
Censoring Options
Use censoring columns: Choose Use censoring columns, then enter the censoring columns in the box. The first
censoring column is paired with the first data column, the second censoring column is paired with the second data
column, and so on.
Censoring value: If you like, enter the value you use to indicate censoring in Censoring value. If you do not enter a
value, Minitab uses the lowest value in the censoring column. Text values must be contained in double quotes.
Time censor at: For time censored data, choose Time censor at, then enter a failure time at which to begin censoring.
For example, entering 500 says that any observation from 500 time units onward is considered censored.
Failure censor at: For failure censored data, choose Failure censor at, then enter a number of failures at which to begin
censoring. For example, entering 150 says to make all (ordered) observations starting with the 150th observation
censored, and all other observations uncensored.
Note To change the method for calculating probability plot points, see Tools > Options > Individual Graphs >
Probability Plots.
Censoring), which requires you to specify the distribution for your data. Distribution ID Plot − Right Censoring can help
you choose that distribution.
First you collect failure times for the engine windings at two temperatures. In the first sample, you test 50 windings at 80°
C; in the second sample, you test 40 windings at 100° C. Some of the units drop out of the test for unrelated reasons. In
the Minitab worksheet, you use a column of censoring indicators to designate which times are actual failures (1) and
which are censored units removed from the test before failure (0).
1 Open the worksheet RELIABLE.MTW.
2 Choose Stat > Reliability/Survival > Distribution Analysis (Right Censoring) > Distribution ID Plot.
3 In Variables, enter Temp80 Temp100.
4 Choose Specify. Leave the default distributions as Weibull, lognormal, exponential, and normal.
5 Click Censor. Choose Use censoring columns and enter Cens80 Cens100 in the box. Click OK in each dialog box.
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling Correlation
Distribution (adj) Coefficient
Weibull 67.606 0.986
Lognormal 67.656 0.982
Exponential 71.519 *
Normal 67.589 0.987
Table of Percentiles
Table of MTTF
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling Correlation
Distribution (adj) Coefficient
Weibull 17.396 0.993
Lognormal 17.281 0.988
Exponential 19.338 *
Normal 17.830 0.960
Table of Percentiles
Table of MTTF
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling Correlation
Distribution (adj) Coefficient
Weibull 67.606 0.986
Lognormal 67.656 0.982
Exponential 71.519 *
Normal 67.589 0.987
Table of Percentiles
Table of MTTF
Overview Plot
Parametric distribution analysis commands
You can use all parametric distribution analysis commands for both right-censored and arbitrarily-censored data. The
commands include Parametric Distribution Analysis, which performs the full analysis, and creates a Distribution ID Plot
and Distribution Overview Plot. These graphs are often used before the full analysis to help choose a distribution or view
summary information.
Command Description
Distribution ID Plot Draws probability plots from your choice of eleven common distributions:
Right Censored smallest extreme value, Weibull, 3-parameter Weibull, exponential, 2-
Arbitrarily Censored parameter exponential, normal, lognormal, 3-parameter lognormal, logistic,
loglogistic, and 3-parameter loglogistic. These plots help you determine
which, if any, of the parametric distributions best fits your data.
Distribution Overview Plot Draws a probability plot, probability density function, survival plot, and
Right Censored hazard plot in separate regions on the same graph. These help you assess
Arbitrarily Censored the fit of the chosen distribution and view summary graphs of your data.
Parametric Distribution Analysis Fits one of eleven common parametric distributions to your data, then uses
Right Censored that distribution to estimate percentiles, survival probabilities, and
Arbitrarily Censored cumulative failure probabilities. Also draws survival, cumulative failure,
hazard, and probability plots.
The parametric display includes a probability plot (for a selected distribution), a survival (or reliability) plot, a probability
density function, and a hazard plot. The nonparametric display depends on the type of data: if you have right-censored
data Minitab displays a Kaplan-Meier survival plot and a hazard plot or an Actuarial survival plot and hazard plot, and if
you have arbitrarily-censored data, Minitab displays a Turnbull survival plot or an Actuarial survival plot and hazard plot.
These functions are all typical ways of describing the distribution of failure time data.
Minitab estimates the functions independently for each sample. All of the samples display on a single plot, in different
colors and symbols, which helps you compare their various functions.
To draw these plots with more information, see one of the Distribution Analysis Commands.
Dialog box items
Variables: Enter the columns of failure times. You can enter up to 50 columns (50 different samples).
Frequency columns (optional): Enter the columns of frequency data.
By variable: If all of the samples are stacked in one column, check By variable, and enter a column of grouping
indicators in the box
Parametric analysis: Choose to perform a parametric distribution analysis.
Distribution: Choose one of eleven distributions: smallest extreme value, Weibull (default), 3-parameter Weibull,
exponential, 2-parameter exponential, normal, lognormal, 3-parameter lognormal, logistic, loglogistic, or 3-parameter
loglogistic.
Nonparametric analysis: Choose to perform a nonparametric distribution analysis.
Note Occasionally, you may have life data with no failures. Under certain conditions, Minitab allows you to draw
conclusions based on that data. See Drawing conclusions when you have few or no failures.
Note If you have no censored values, you can skip steps 6 & 7.
6 Click Censor.
7 Do one of the following, then click OK.
• For data with censoring columns: Choose Use censoring columns, then enter the censoring columns in the box.
The first censoring column is paired with the first data column, the second censoring column is paired with the
second data column, and so on.
If you like, enter the value you use to indicate censoring in Censoring value. If you do not enter a value, Minitab
uses the lowest value in the censoring column.
• For time censored data: Choose Time censor at, then enter a failure time at which to begin censoring. For
example, entering 500 says that any observation from 500 time units onward is considered censored.
• For failure censored data: Choose Failure censor at, then enter a number of failures at which to begin censoring.
For example, entering 150 says to censor all (ordered) observations from the 150th observed failure on, and leave
all other observations uncensored.
8 If you like, use any of the available dialog box options, then click OK.
Censor
Stat > Reliability/Survival > Distribution Analysis (Right Censoring) > distribution analysis command > Censor
Allows you to designate which observations are censored.
Dialog box items
Censoring Options
Use censoring columns: Choose Use censoring columns, then enter the censoring columns in the box. The first
censoring column is paired with the first data column, the second censoring column is paired with the second data
column, and so on.
Censoring value: If you like, enter the value you use to indicate censoring in Censoring value. If you do not enter a
value, Minitab uses the lowest value in the censoring column. Text values must be contained in double quotes.
Time censor at: For time censored data, choose Time censor at, then enter a failure time at which to begin censoring.
For example, entering 500 says that any observation from 500 time units onward is considered censored.
Failure censor at: For failure censored data, choose Failure censor at, then enter a number of failures at which to begin
censoring. For example, entering 150 says to make all (ordered) observations starting with the 150th observation
censored, and all other observations uncensored.
Note To change the method for calculating probability plot points, see Tools > Options > Individual Graphs >
Probability Plots.
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling Correlation
Distribution (adj) Coefficient
Lognormal 67.656 0.982
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling Correlation
Distribution (adj) Coefficient
Lognormal 17.281 0.988
• Probability plot, which displays estimates of the cumulative distribution function F(y) vs. failure time.
• Parametric survival (or reliability) plot, which displays the survival (or reliability) function 1-F(y) vs. failure time.
• Probability density function, which displays the curve that describes the distribution of your data, or f(y).
• Parametric hazard plot, which displays the hazard function or instantaneous failure rate, f(y)/(1-F(y)) vs. failure time.
When you select a nonparametric display, you get:
• For right-censored data with Kaplan-Meier method
- Kaplan-Meier survival plot
- Nonparametric hazard plot based on the empirical hazard function
• For right-censored data with Actuarial method
- Actuarial survival plot
- Nonparametric hazard plot based on the empirical hazard function
• For arbitrarily-censored data with Turnbull method
- Turnbull survival plot
• For arbitrarily-censored data with Actuarial method
- Actuarial survival plot
- Nonparametric hazard plot based on the empirical hazard function
The Kaplan-Meier survival estimates, Turnbull survival estimates, and empirical hazard function change values only at
exact failure times, so the nonparametric survival and hazard curves are step functions. Parametric survival and hazard
estimates are based on a fitted distribution and the curve will therefore be smooth.
For example,
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling Correlation
Distribution (adj) Coefficient
Weibull 67.606 0.986
Command Description
Distribution ID Plot Draws probability plots from your choice of eleven common distributions:
Right Censored smallest extreme value, Weibull, 3-parameter Weibull, exponential, 2-
Arbitrarily Censored parameter exponential, normal, lognormal, 3-parameter lognormal, logistic,
loglogistic, and 3-parameter loglogistic. These plots help you determine
which, if any, of the parametric distributions best fits your data.
Distribution Overview Plot Draws a probability plot, probability density function, survival plot, and
Right Censored hazard plot in separate regions on the same graph. These help you assess
Arbitrarily Censored the fit of the chosen distribution and view summary graphs of your data.
Parametric Distribution Analysis Fits one of eleven common parametric distributions to your data, then uses
Right Censored that distribution to estimate percentiles, survival probabilities, and
Arbitrarily Censored cumulative failure probabilities. Also draws survival, cumulative failure,
hazard, and probability plots.
Note Occasionally, you may have life data with no failures. Under certain conditions, Minitab allows you to draw
conclusions based on that data. See Drawing conclusions when you have few or no failures.
Note If you have no censored values, you can skip steps 5 & 6.
5 Click Censor.
6 Do one of the following, then click OK.
• For data with censoring columns: Choose Use censoring columns, then enter the censoring columns in the box.
The first censoring column is paired with the first data column, the second censoring column is paired with the
second data column, and so on.
If you like, enter the value you used to indicate censoring in Censoring value. If you do not enter a value, by
default Minitab uses the lowest value in the censoring column.
• For time censored data: Choose Time censor at, then enter a failure time at which to begin censoring. For
example, entering 500 says that any observation from 500 time units onward is considered censored.
• For failure censored data: Choose Failure censor at, then enter a number of failures at which to begin censoring.
For example, entering 150 says to censor all (ordered) observations from the 150th observation on, and leave all
other observations uncensored.
7 If you like, use any dialog box options, then click OK.
Note The threshold parameter is assumed fixed when calculating confidence intervals with the 3-parameter
lognormal and 2-parameter exponential distributions.
Percentiles
By what time do half of the engine windings fail? How long until 10% of the blenders stop working? You are looking for
percentiles. The parametric distribution analysis commands automatically display a table of percentiles in the Session
window. By default, Minitab displays the percentiles 1-10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, and 90-99.
In this example, we entered failure times (in months) for engine windings.
Table of Percentiles
Censor
Stat > Reliability/Survival > Distribution Analysis (Right Censoring) > distribution analysis command > Censor
Allows you to designate which observations are censored.
Dialog box items
Censoring Options
Use censoring columns: Choose Use censoring columns, then enter the censoring columns in the box. The first
censoring column is paired with the first data column, the second censoring column is paired with the second data
column, and so on.
Censoring value: If you like, enter the value you use to indicate censoring in Censoring value. If you do not enter a
value, Minitab uses the lowest value in the censoring column. Text values must be contained in double quotes.
Time censor at: For time censored data, choose Time censor at, then enter a failure time at which to begin censoring.
For example, entering 500 says that any observation from 500 time units onward is considered censored.
Failure censor at: For failure censored data, choose Failure censor at, then enter a number of failures at which to begin
censoring. For example, entering 150 says to make all (ordered) observations starting with the 150th observation
censored, and all other observations uncensored.
Create right censored observations using (Only available with arbitrary censoring.) Use to determine how Minitab will
create right-censored observations for other failure modes when data are interval censored.
Midpoint of intervals: Choose if a failure for any one failure mode causes the experiment to end.
Right endpoint of intervals: Choose if the experiment continues until the right endpoint when a failure in the interval
occurs.
Change Distribution for Levels Use only if distribution is different from that selected in the main dialog box.
Level: Enter failure mode, then choose the corresponding distribution for each failure mode.
Variable: Weeks
Failure Mode: Failure = Meter
Distribution: Logistic
Parameter Estimates
Log-Likelihood = -120.811
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling (adjusted) = 2.843
Correlation Coefficient = 0.985
Characteristics of Distribution
Table of Percentiles
95.0% Normal CI
Time Probability Lower Upper
52 0.922741 0.847471 0.962510
Variable: Weeks
Failure Mode: Failure = Sensor
Distribution: Weibull
Parameter Estimates
Log-Likelihood = -184.235
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling (adjusted) = 91.425
Correlation Coefficient = 0.984
Characteristics of Distribution
Table of Percentiles
95.0% Normal CI
Time Probability Lower Upper
52 0.845809 0.755073 0.905001
Variable: Weeks
Failure Mode: Failure = Transmitter
Distribution: Weibull
Parameter Estimates
Log-Likelihood = -187.488
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling (adjusted) = 182.549
Correlation Coefficient = 0.987
Characteristics of Distribution
Table of Percentiles
95.0% Normal CI
Time Probability Lower Upper
52 0.736598 0.632389 0.815503
Variable: Weeks
Table of Percentiles
95.0% Normal CI
Percent Percentile Lower Upper
0.1 -76.7766 -134.258 -19.2951
1 -9.52708 -47.2195 9.27227
2 4.18134 -16.9494 12.6968
3 7.72617 0.293470 15.1079
4 10.3707 4.35150 17.4591
5 12.5881 6.77289 19.6042
6 14.5404 8.74528 21.5580
7 16.3074 10.4731 23.3531
8 17.9356 12.0401 25.0185
9 19.4550 13.4906 26.5768
10 20.8862 14.8514 28.0459
20 32.4556 25.8527 39.8636
30 41.6745 34.7026 49.1932
40 49.9792 42.7293 57.5579
50 57.9891 50.5031 65.6076
60 66.1511 58.4426 73.8054
70 74.9700 67.0254 82.6733
80 85.3122 77.0704 93.1127
90 99.5548 90.8017 107.623
91 101.456 92.6213 109.576
92 103.518 94.5891 111.698
93 105.778 96.7417 114.032
94 108.296 99.1316 116.639
95 111.157 101.838 119.614
96 114.506 104.993 123.110
97 118.605 108.832 127.411
98 124.023 113.870 133.136
99 132.500 121.669 142.180
95.0% Normal CI
Time Probability Lower Upper
52 0.574887 0.480067 0.664499
Estimate probabilities for these times (values): Enter one or more times or a column of times for which you want to
calculate survival probabilities or cumulative failure probabilities.
Estimate survival probabilities: Choose to estimate survival probabilities.
Estimate cumulative failure probabilities: Choose to estimate cumulative failure probabilities.
Confidence level: Enter a confidence level for all of the confidence intervals. The default is 95.0%.
Confidence intervals: Choose to use two-sided confidence intervals (the default) or just an upper or lower confidence
interval.
• In Set shape (slope−Weibull) or scale (1/slope−other dists) at, enter the shape or scale value.
• In Set threshold at, enter the threshold value.
3 Click OK.
For more information, see Drawing conclusions when you have few or no failures.
If your data come from a Weibull or exponential distribution, you can do a Bayes analysis to obtain lower confidence
bounds for parameters, percentiles, survival probabilities, and cumulative failure probabilities.
If you collect life data and have no failures, Minitab can still analyze when all of the following are met:
• The data come from a Weibull or exponential distribution.
• The data are right-censored.
• The maximum likelihood method will be used to estimate parameters.
• You provide a historical value for the shape parameter (Weibull).
If your data are from an exponential distribution, Minitab automatically assigns a shape parameter of 1.
Note If your data come from a three−parameter Weibull or two−parameter exponential, you must also provide a
historical value for the threshold parameter.
For example, your reliability specifications require that the 5th percentile is at least 12 months. You run a Bayes analysis
on data with no failures, and then examine the lower confidence bound to substantiate that the product is at least as good
as specifications require. If the lower confidence bound for the 5th percentile is 13.1 months, you conclude that your
product meets specifications and terminate the test. See Demonstration Test Plans to determine the optimal testing time
or number of test units to use.
Note For 2-parameter distributions, check the first two Equality of Parameters options to test whether two or more
samples come from the same population. For 3-parameter distributions, check all Equality of Parameters
options, to test the same.
To determine whether two or more samples come from the same population
1 In the main dialog box, click Test.
2 Do the following:
• Check Test for equal shape (slope−Weibull) or scale (1/slope−other dists).
• Check Test for equal scale (Weibull or expo) or location (other distributions).
• Check Test for equal threshold.
3 Click OK.
Note To change the method for calculating probability plot points, see Tools > Options > Individual Graphs >
Probability Plots.
To... Do...
Specify the method used to See Tools > Options > Individual Graphs > Probability Plots to choose Median
obtain the plot points
Rank (Benard), Mean Rank (Herd−Johnson), modified Kaplan−Meier (Hazen),
or Kaplan−Meier method.
Choose what to plot when you For Parametric Distribution Analysis (Right Censoring)
have tied failure times
Under Handle tied failure times by plotting, choose All points (default),
Maximum of the tied points, or Average (median) of tied points.
Turn off the 95.0% confidence Uncheck Display confidence intervals on above plots.
interval
Choose how plots are Choose Overlaid on the same graph to have multiple samples plotted on the
displayed same graph, In separate panels on the same graph to have multiple samples
plotted in separate panels all on the same graph, or On separate graphs to have
each plot displayed separately.
Specify a minimum and/or In Minimum X scale or Maximum X scale, enter values for the scale minimum
maximum value for the x-axis and maximum.
scale
Enter a label for the x-axis In X axis label, type a label.
3 Click OK.
4 To change the confidence level for the 95.0% confidence interval to some other level, click Estimate. In Confidence
level, enter a value. Click OK.
5 To change the method used to obtain the fitted line, click Estimate. In Estimation Method, choose Least Squares
(default) or Maximum Likelihood. Click OK.
To draw a parametric hazard plot, check Hazard plot in the Graphs subdialog box.
Probability plots
Use a probability plot to assess whether a particular distribution fits your data. The plot consists of:
• Plot points, which represent the proportion of failures up to a certain time. Minitab calculates the plot points using a
nonparametric method. The observed failure times are plotted on the x-axis vs. the estimated cumulative probabilities
(p) on the y-axis. Transformations of both the x and y data are needed to ensure that the plotted y values are a linear
function of the plotted x values if the data are sampled from the particular distribution.
• Fitted line, which is a graphical representation of the percentiles. To make the fitted line, Minitab first calculates the
percentiles for the various percents, based on the chosen distribution. The associated probabilities are then
transformed and used as the y-variables. The percentiles may be transformed, depending on the distribution, and are
used as the x-variables. The transformed scales, chosen to linearize the fitted line, differ depending on the distribution
used.
• Confidence intervals, set of approximate 95.0% confidence intervals for the fitted line.
For more information on probability plot calculations, see Methods and formulas - parametric distribution analysis.
Because the plot points do not depend on any distribution, they would be the same (before being transformed) for any
probability plot made. The fitted line, however, differs depending on the parametric distribution chosen. So you can use
the probability plot to assess whether a particular distribution fits your data. In general, the closer the points fall to the
fitted line, the better the fit. Minitab provides two goodness of fit measures to help assess how the distribution fits your
data.
To choose from various methods to estimate the plot points, see Tools > Options > Individual Graphs > Probability Plots.
To choose from various methods to obtain the fitted line, see Parametric Distribution Analysis − Estimate.
Tip To quickly compare the fit of up to eleven different distributions at once, see Distribution ID Plot (Right
Censoring) or Distribution ID Plot (Arbitrary Censoring).
The Weibull probability plot below shows failure times associated with running engine windings at a temperature of 80° C:
Survival plots
Survival (or reliability) plots display the survival probabilities versus time. Each plot point represents the proportion of units
surviving at time t. The survival curve is surrounded by two outer lines − the approximate 95.0% confidence interval for the
curve, which provide reasonable values for the "true" survival function.
Case Enter
A single variable with a single failure mode. • Enter one column containing values for each parameter of your
distribution.
Two or more variables, each with a single • Enter a single column containing values for each parameter for
failure mode. each variable.
• Enter one column of parameter estimates for each variable.
A By variable with several group levels. • Enter a single column containing values for each parameter for
all group levels.
• Enter one column of values for each group level. If there are four
group levels, enter four columns containing parameter estimates.
Variables with multiple failure modes:
Case Enter
A single variable with a multiple failure • Enter a single column containing values for each parameter for
modes. each failure mode.
• Enter one column of parameter estimates for each failure mode.
If there are three failure modes, enter three columns of
parameter estimates.
Two or more variables, each with multiple • Enter a single column containing values for each parameter for
failure modes. each failure mode and variable.
• Enter one column of parameter estimates for each failure mode
of each variable. If there are two variables with two failure
modes, enter four columns of parameter estimates.
A By variable with several group levels and • Enter a single column containing values for each parameter for
multiple failure modes. each failure mode of each group level.
• Enter one column of parameter estimates for each failure mode
of each group level. If there are two group levels with three
failure modes each, enter six columns of parameter estimates.
Parameter estimates are assigned by failure mode then variable. Normally, the first column should contain the parameter
estimates of failure mode 1, variable 1; the second column − parameter estimates of failure mode 1, variable 2, etc. If
variable 2 does not have failure mode 1, the second column contains the parameter estimates of failure mode 2, variable
1.
Caution Do not enter starting estimates or historical estimates for failure modes that you have eliminated from the
analysis.
Cumulative failure probabilities: Check to store cumulative failure probabilities. Available when you estimate
cumulative failure probabilities at different times.
Confidence limits for cumulative failure probabilities: Check to store confidence limits for cumulative failure
probabilities. Available when you estimate cumulative failure probabilities at different times.
Information on Parameters Choose to store the following when you have a single failure mode.
Parameters estimates: Check to store parameter estimates.
Standard error of estimates: Check to store standard error of parameter estimates.
Confidence limits for parameters: Check to store confidence limits for parameters.
Variance/covariance matrix: Check to store the variance / covariance matrix.
Log-likelihood for last iteration: Check to store the log-likelihood ratio for the last iteration.
Variable: Temp80
Distribution: Lognormal
Parameter Estimates
Log-Likelihood = -182.827
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling (adjusted) = 67.656
Correlation Coefficient = 0.982
Characteristics of Distribution
Table of Percentiles
95.0% Normal CI
Time Probability Lower Upper
70 0.302208 0.206353 0.414111
Variable: Temp100
Distribution: Lognormal
Parameter Estimates
Log-Likelihood = -160.697
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling (adjusted) = 17.281
Correlation Coefficient = 0.988
Characteristics of Distribution
Table of Percentiles
95.0% Normal CI
Time Probability Lower Upper
70 0.197736 0.107086 0.323727
You can find the 0.1st percentile, which you requested, within the Table of Percentiles. At 80° C, 0.1% of the windings fail
by 15.7465 months; at 100° C, 0.1% of the windings fail by 3.78631 months. So the increase in temperature decreased
the percentile by about 9.5 months.
What proportion of windings would you expect to still be running past 70 months? In the Table of Survival Probabilities
you find your answer. At 80° C, 30.22% survive past 70 months; at 100° C, 19.77% survive.
Variable: Temp80
Distribution: Weibull
Parameter Estimates
Log-Likelihood = -202.258
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling (adjusted) = 67.606
Correlation Coefficient = 0.986
Characteristics of Distribution
Table of Percentiles
Note From the Results subdialog box, you can request additional output and display Session window output for each
failure mode.
Command Description
Distribution Overview Plot Draws a Kaplan-Meier survival plot and hazard plot on one graph.
Right Censored Draws a Turnbull survival plot, or an Actuarial survival plot and hazard
Arbitrary Censored plot, on one graph.
Nonparametric Distribution Analysis Gives you nonparametric estimates of the survival probabilities,
Right Censored cumulative failure probabilities, hazard rates, and other estimates
depending on the nonparametric technique chosen, and draw survival,
Arbitrary Censored
cumulative failure, and hazard plots. When you have multiple samples,
Nonparametric Distribution Analysis - Right Censoring also tests the
equality of their survival curves.
If a distribution fits your data, use Parametric Distribution Analysis (Right Censoring).
Dialog box items
Variables: Enter the columns of failure times. You can enter up to 50 columns (50 different samples).
Frequency columns (optional): Enter the columns of frequency data.
By variable: If all of the samples are stacked in one column, check By variable, and enter a column of grouping
indicators in the box
Note Occasionally, you may have life data with no failures. Under certain conditions, Minitab allows you to draw
conclusions based on that data. See Drawing conclusions when you have few or no failures.
Note If you have no censored values, you can skip steps 5 & 6.
5 Click Censor.
6 Do one of the following, then click OK.
• For data with censoring columns: Choose Use censoring columns, then enter the censoring columns in the box.
The first censoring column is paired with the first data column, the second censoring column is paired with the
second data column, and so on.
If you like, enter the value you use to indicate a censored value in Cens value. If you do not enter a censoring
value, Minitab uses the lowest value in the censoring column by default.
• For time censored data: Choose Time censor at, then enter a failure time at which to begin censoring. For
example, entering 500 says that any observation from 500 time units onward is considered censored.
• For failure censored data: Choose Failure censor at, then enter a number of failures at which to begin censoring.
For example, entering 150 says to censor all (ordered) observations starting with the 150th observation censored,
and leave all other observations uncensored.
7 If you like, use any of the available dialog box options, then click OK.
Censor
Stat > Reliability/Survival > Distribution Analysis (Right Censoring) > distribution analysis command > Censor
Allows you to designate which observations are censored.
More To display hazard and density estimates in the Actuarial table, from the main dialog box, click Results. Do one
of the following and then click :
With Nonparametric Distribution Analysis (Right Censoring), choose In addition, hazard, density (actuarial
method) estimates and log-rank and Wilcoxon statistics.
With Nonparametric Distribution Analysis (Arbitrary Censoring), choose In addition, hazard and density
estimates (actuarial method).
More By default, the hazard plot for Nonparametric Distribution Analysis (Right Censoring) uses the empirical hazard
function. If you want to plot Actuarial estimates, choose Actuarial method in the Estimate subdialog box. See
To request actuarial estimates.
• Nonparametric Distribution Analysis (Arbitrary Censoring) only plots Actuarial estimates. Since the Actuarial method is
not the default estimation method, be sure to choose Actuarial method in the Estimate subdialog box when you want
to draw a hazard plot.
Test Statistics
Method Chi-Square DF P-Value
Log-Rank 7.7152 1 0.0055
Wilcoxon 13.1326 1 0.0003
This table contains measures that tell you if the survival curves for various samples are significantly different. A p-value <
α indicates that the survival curves are significantly different.
To get more detailed log-rank and Wilcoxon statistics, choose In addition, hazard, density (actuarial method)
estimates and log-rank and Wilcoxon statistics in the Results subdialog box.
Display analyses for individual failure modes according to display of results: Check to display the results for each
failure mode.
Variable: Temp80
Nonparametric Estimates
Characteristics of Variable
Median = 55
IQR = * Q1 = 48 Q3 = *
Kaplan-Meier Estimates
Number
at Number Survival Standard 95.0% Normal CI
Time Risk Failed Probability Error Lower Upper
23 50 1 0.980000 0.0197990 0.941195 1.00000
24 49 1 0.960000 0.0277128 0.905684 1.00000
27 48 2 0.920000 0.0383667 0.844803 0.99520
31 46 1 0.900000 0.0424264 0.816846 0.98315
34 45 1 0.880000 0.0459565 0.789927 0.97007
35 44 1 0.860000 0.0490714 0.763822 0.95618
37 43 1 0.840000 0.0518459 0.738384 0.94162
40 42 1 0.820000 0.0543323 0.713511 0.92649
41 41 1 0.800000 0.0565685 0.689128 0.91087
45 40 1 0.780000 0.0585833 0.665179 0.89482
46 39 1 0.760000 0.0603987 0.641621 0.87838
48 38 3 0.700000 0.0648074 0.572980 0.82702
49 35 1 0.680000 0.0659697 0.550702 0.80930
50 34 1 0.660000 0.0669925 0.528697 0.79130
51 33 4 0.580000 0.0697997 0.443195 0.71680
52 29 1 0.560000 0.0701997 0.422411 0.69759
53 28 1 0.540000 0.0704840 0.401854 0.67815
54 27 1 0.520000 0.0706541 0.381521 0.65848
55 26 1 0.500000 0.0707107 0.361410 0.63859
56 25 1 0.480000 0.0706541 0.341521 0.61848
58 24 2 0.440000 0.0701997 0.302411 0.57759
59 22 1 0.420000 0.0697997 0.283195 0.55680
60 21 1 0.400000 0.0692820 0.264210 0.53579
61 20 1 0.380000 0.0686440 0.245460 0.51454
62 19 1 0.360000 0.0678823 0.226953 0.49305
64 18 1 0.340000 0.0669925 0.208697 0.47130
66 17 1 0.320000 0.0659697 0.190702 0.44930
67 16 2 0.280000 0.0634980 0.155546 0.40445
74 13 1 0.258462 0.0621592 0.136632 0.38029
Variable: Temp100
Nonparametric Estimates
Characteristics of Variable
Median = 38
IQR = 30 Q1 = 24 Q3 = 54
Kaplan-Meier Estimates
Number
at Number Survival Standard 95.0% Normal CI
Time Risk Failed Probability Error Lower Upper
6 40 1 0.97500 0.0246855 0.926617 1.00000
10 39 1 0.95000 0.0344601 0.882459 1.00000
11 38 1 0.92500 0.0416458 0.843376 1.00000
14 37 1 0.90000 0.0474342 0.807031 0.99297
16 36 1 0.87500 0.0522913 0.772511 0.97749
18 35 3 0.80000 0.0632456 0.676041 0.92396
22 32 1 0.77500 0.0660256 0.645592 0.90441
24 31 1 0.75000 0.0684653 0.615810 0.88419
25 30 1 0.72500 0.0706001 0.586626 0.86337
27 29 1 0.70000 0.0724569 0.557987 0.84201
29 28 1 0.67500 0.0740566 0.529852 0.82015
30 27 1 0.65000 0.0754155 0.502188 0.79781
32 26 1 0.62500 0.0765466 0.474972 0.77503
35 25 1 0.60000 0.0774597 0.448182 0.75182
36 24 2 0.55000 0.0786607 0.395828 0.70417
37 22 1 0.52500 0.0789581 0.370245 0.67975
38 21 2 0.47500 0.0789581 0.320245 0.62975
39 19 1 0.45000 0.0786607 0.295828 0.60417
40 18 1 0.42500 0.0781625 0.271804 0.57820
45 17 2 0.37500 0.0765466 0.224972 0.52503
46 15 2 0.32500 0.0740566 0.179852 0.47015
47 13 1 0.30000 0.0724569 0.157987 0.44201
48 12 1 0.27500 0.0706001 0.136626 0.41337
54 11 1 0.25000 0.0684653 0.115810 0.38419
68 8 1 0.21875 0.0666585 0.088102 0.34940
69 7 1 0.18750 0.0640434 0.061977 0.31302
72 6 1 0.15625 0.0605154 0.037642 0.27486
76 5 1 0.12500 0.0559017 0.015435 0.23457
Test Statistics
Kaplan−Meier estimates
• Censoring information
• Characteristics of the variable, including the mean, its standard error and 95% confidence intervals, median,
interquartile range, Q1, and Q3
• Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival probabilities and their
- Standard error
- 95% confidence intervals
For example,
Variable: Temp80
Nonparametric Estimates
Characteristics of Variable
Median = 55
IQR = * Q1 = 48 Q3 = *
Kaplan-Meier Estimates
Number
at Number Survival Standard 95.0% Normal CI
Time Risk Failed Probability Error Lower Upper
23 50 1 0.980000 0.0197990 0.941195 1.00000
24 49 1 0.960000 0.0277128 0.905684 1.00000
27 48 2 0.920000 0.0383667 0.844803 0.99520
31 46 1 0.900000 0.0424264 0.816846 0.98315
34 45 1 0.880000 0.0459565 0.789927 0.97007
35 44 1 0.860000 0.0490714 0.763822 0.95618
37 43 1 0.840000 0.0518459 0.738384 0.94162
40 42 1 0.820000 0.0543323 0.713511 0.92649
41 41 1 0.800000 0.0565685 0.689128 0.91087
45 40 1 0.780000 0.0585833 0.665179 0.89482
46 39 1 0.760000 0.0603987 0.641621 0.87838
48 38 3 0.700000 0.0648074 0.572980 0.82702
49 35 1 0.680000 0.0659697 0.550702 0.80930
50 34 1 0.660000 0.0669925 0.528697 0.79130
51 33 4 0.580000 0.0697997 0.443195 0.71680
52 29 1 0.560000 0.0701997 0.422411 0.69759
53 28 1 0.540000 0.0704840 0.401854 0.67815
54 27 1 0.520000 0.0706541 0.381521 0.65848
55 26 1 0.500000 0.0707107 0.361410 0.63859
56 25 1 0.480000 0.0706541 0.341521 0.61848
58 24 2 0.440000 0.0701997 0.302411 0.57759
59 22 1 0.420000 0.0697997 0.283195 0.55680
60 21 1 0.400000 0.0692820 0.264210 0.53579
61 20 1 0.380000 0.0686440 0.245460 0.51454
62 19 1 0.360000 0.0678823 0.226953 0.49305
64 18 1 0.340000 0.0669925 0.208697 0.47130
66 17 1 0.320000 0.0659697 0.190702 0.44930
67 16 2 0.280000 0.0634980 0.155546 0.40445
74 13 1 0.258462 0.0621592 0.136632 0.38029
Turnbull estimates
• Censoring information
• Turnbull estimates of the probability of failure and their standard errors
• Turnbull estimates of the survival probabilities and their standard errors and 95% confidence intervals
For example,
Turnbull Estimates
Variable: Temp80
Nonparametric Estimates
Characteristics of Variable
Proportion
of Running Additional Standard 95.0% Normal CI
Time T Units Time Error Lower Upper
20 1.00 36.1905 3.36718 29.5909 42.7900
40 0.84 20.0000 3.08607 13.9514 26.0486
Actuarial Table
Conditional
Interval Number Number Number Probability Standard
Lower Upper Entering Failed Censored of Failure Error
0 20 50 0 0 0.000000 0.000000
20 40 50 8 0 0.160000 0.051846
40 60 42 21 0 0.500000 0.077152
60 80 21 8 4 0.421053 0.113269
80 100 9 0 6 0.000000 0.000000
100 120 3 0 3 0.000000 0.000000
Note From the Results subdialog box, you can request additional output and display Session window output for each
failure mode.
Growth Curves
Growth Curve Overview
Use growth curves to analyze life data from a repairable system. A repairable system is one in which the parts are
repaired instead of being replaced when they fail. For example, automotive engines are usually repaired many times
before being replaced. System repair data usually consist of successive failure (or repair) times. However, data can also
be measures such as distance from a reference point or the length of a crack.
• Use nonparametric growth curves to estimate growth curves of the mean cost of maintaining the system or the mean
number of repairs over time without making assumptions about the distribution of the cost or number of repairs.
• Use parametric growth curves to estimate growth curves of the mean number of repairs and ROCOF over time using a
power-law process or a homogeneous Poisson process.
Use nonparametric and parametric growth curves to determine whether a trend exists in times between successive
failures of a repairable system; that is, to determine whether system failures are becoming more frequent, less frequent,
or remaining constant. Use this information to make decisions concerning the future operation of your system, such as:
• Setting maintenance schedules
• Making provisions for spare parts
• Assuring suitable performance
• Forecasting repair costs
Note Stack the system failure time data together if you believe that the rate of failures are identical, as in the case of
identical manufacturing processes. Remember to include a system column in this case.
1 1 1 2
5 1 1 4
9 1 0 0
4 2 1 2
7 2 1 4
10 2 0 0
8 3 1 2
9 3 1 4
11 3 0 0
Note Retirement times must have a value of 0 in the corresponding frequency column.
Repairable systems data can consist of:
• Failure truncated data: Enter a column of failure times. The retirement time is the largest failure time. A failure-
truncated system is retired once a certain number of failures occur. In a failure-truncated system, the system is retired
immediately upon the last failure.
If the systems in the example above are failure-truncated, system 1 was retired following the failure at 9 hours.
• Time truncated data: Enter a column of failure times. The retirement time for a system is the largest value in the
variables (or time) column for that system. A time-truncated system is retired after a specified period of time. In a time-
truncated system, the largest time is not a failure time.
If the systems in the example above are time-truncated and no retirement column is given, system 1 was retired at 9
hours.
• Data with a retirement column: Enter a column of retirement indicators. Retirement indicators can be numeric, text,
or date/time. If you do not specify which value indicates the retirement value in the Retirement subdialog box, Minitab
assumes the lower of the two values indicates the retirement value, while the higher one indicates a failure/repair
time. If specified, the retirement value applies to every sample in each analysis.
The columns for each sample must be the same length, although pairs of columns from different samples can have
different lengths. Use retirement columns if one group is time-truncated and another is failure-truncated.
In the example above, system 1 failed at the first and fifth hour and is retired at the ninth hour.
See Using time and retirement columns for more information about the relationship between your time column and
retirement times.
When you have more than one sample, you can use separate columns for each sample. Alternatively, you can stack all
the samples in one column, then set up a column of grouping indicators. For an illustration, see Stacked vs. Unstacked
data.
Each sample is analyzed independently and results in one growth curve. All the samples display on a single plot, with
different colors and symbols to help you compare reliability growth between samples.
For general information on repairable systems data, see Data − Growth Curves.
This data set illustrates interval data, as well as the use of a frequency column.
0 1 1 2
1 5 1 4
9 * 1 0
0 4 2 2
5 7 2 4
10 * 2 0
8 9 3 4
5 8 3 2
11 * 3 0
In this example,
• Two failures occurred between 0 and 1 hours for system 1
• Observation ceased on system 1 at 9 hours
When you have more than one sample, you can use separate columns for each sample. Alternatively, you can stack all
the samples in one column, then set up a column of grouping indicators. For an illustration, see Stacked vs. Unstacked
data.
Each sample is analyzed independently and results in one growth curve. All the samples display on a single plot, with
different colors and symbols to help you compare reliability growth between samples.
For general information on repairable systems data, see Data − Growth Curves.
0 5 10 8
5 10 8 10
10 15 6 6
15 * 4 0
In this example,
• Ten systems are running at 0 hours. Between 0 and 5 hours of operation, 8 repairs were made to these systems.
• Four systems are left running after the final observation time of 15 hours.
When you have more than one sample, you can use separate columns for each sample. Alternatively, you can stack all
the samples in one column, then set up a column of grouping indicators. For an illustration, see Stacked vs. Unstacked
data.
Each sample is analyzed independently and results in one growth curve. All the samples display on a single plot, with
different colors and lines to help you compare reliability growth between samples.
For general information on repairable systems data, see Data − Growth Curves.
Note If you do not provide a cost or frequency column, Minitab assumes a cost or frequency of 1 for all failures.
To use parametric growth curves when data are exact failure/retirement times
1 Choose Stat > Reliability/Survival > Parametric Growth Curve.
2 In Variables/Start variables, enter the column containing the failure/retirement times.
3 If your data are from more than one system, choose System ID and enter one column for each sample to identify the
systems within the sample.
4 If you like, use any dialog box options, then click OK.
To use parametric growth curves when data are interval failure/retirement times
1 Choose Stat > Reliability/Survival > Parametric Growth Curve.
2 Choose Data are interval (failure/retirement) times.
3 In Variables/Start variables, enter the column containing the start time of each failure interval.
4 In End variables, enter the column containing the corresponding end time of each failure interval. You must have the
same number of end variable columns as you have start variable columns.
5 If your data are from more than one system, choose System ID and enter one column for each sample to identify the
systems within the sample.
6 If you like, use any dialog box options, then click OK.
Trend tests
The tests for trend are sometimes referred to as goodness of fit tests. Use the tests for trend to determine whether a
homogeneous Poisson process or a nonhomogeneous Poisson process is the appropriate model. Regardless of the
model you choose, the hypotheses for the tests for trend test are generally:
H0: No trend in data (homogeneous Poisson process)
H1:Trend in data (nonhomogeneous Poisson process)
• If you reject the null hypothesis, you can conclude that there is some trend in your data and you should model your
data with a nonhomogeneous Poisson process such as the power-law process.
• If you fail to reject the null hypothesis, there is insufficient evidence to reject the homogeneous Poisson process
model. Although the power-law process may still be appropriate, the homogeneous Poisson process is a simpler
model and therefore a better choice.
Note The null hypothesis differs slightly depending on which test you are using. See Comparisons of trend tests for
more information about which test is most relevant for your data.
With exact data, Minitab provides three trend tests:
• MIL-Hdbk-189 (The military handbook test)
• Laplace
• Anderson-Darling
With exact data from multiple systems, Minitab provides five trend tests:
• MIL-Hdbk-189 (pooled)
• MIL-Hdbk-189 (TTT-based)
• Laplace (pooled)
• Laplace (TTT-based)
• Anderson-Darling
With interval data, Minitab provides only the MIL-Hdbk-189 test.
Note Simulation studies have shown that a fairly large difference in p-values between TTT-based tests (including the
Anderson-Darling test) and the pooled tests may indicate heterogeneity between systems. You may need to
analyze the data separately for each system.
• The null hypothesis for the TTT-based tests (MIL-hdbk-189, Laplace's, and Anderson-Darling) is that the data come
from a homogeneous Posson process (HPP) with the same MTBF for each system. Thus, rejecting the null
hypothesis could mean that either there is a trend in your data or your data come from heterogeneous systems.
Therefore, you should use TTT-based tests only when you are confident that your systems are homogeneous.
The table below summarizes the different null hypotheses associated with the trend tests.
monotonic trend monotonic trend or monotonic trend monotonic trend or monotonic trend or
Rejecting H0
systems are systems are non-monotonic
means...
heterogeneous heterogeneous trend or systems
are heterogeneous
See [12] for more information concerning these tests.
• = 0.5
• = 3.5
If the test has already been running for t = 8 days, the probability of at least one failure in the next 7 days is:
Retirement value: Enter a value indicating which value in your retirement column represents a retired system. If you
do not enter a value, the lowest value in the retirement column is the retirement value. Text values must be contained in
double quotes.
Note You cannot use a retirement column when you have interval data.
See Comparison of growth curve procedures for a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each method.
Event plot
A plot of events (failures and retirements) for all systems. The plot consists of:
• Horizontal lines, which represent the lifetime of each system
• Cross (X) points, which represent the failure and retirement times of each system
• Cost values or frequencies (optional), which represent the cost or frequency of failure at the cross points
Use the event plot to visually determine whether successive failures are increasing, decreasing, or remaining constant.
Below are examples of event plots for improving, stable, and deteriorating systems.
Note For interval data, the event plot is constructed using the midpoint of each interval.
Duane plot
A scatterplot of the cumulative number of failures at a particular time divided by the time (cumulative failure rate) versus
time. Use a Duane plot to:
• Assess whether your data follow a power-law process or a homogeneous Poisson process
• Determine if your system is improving, deteriorating, or remaining stable
The fitted line on the Duane plot is the best fitted line when the assumption of the power-law process is valid and the
shape and scale are estimated using the least squares method. See Methods and Formulas for the formula for the fitted
line.
The Duane plot should be roughly linear if the power-law process or homogeneous Poisson process is appropriate. A
negative slope shows reliability improvement, a positive slope shows reliability deterioration, and no slope (a horizontal
line) shows a stable system.
Below are examples of Duane plots for improving, stable, and deteriorating systems.
Failure rate (ROCOF): Check to store the ROCOF evaluated at the corresponding time (exact data) or end time
(interval data).
Confidence limits for ROCOF: Check to store the confidence limits for the ROCOF. By default, Minitab stores the
95% confidence limits. You can change the confidence level in the Estimate subdialog box.
Parameter estimates: Check to store estimates of the shape and scale.
Standard error of estimates: Check to store the standard errors of the shape and scale where available.
Confidence limits for parameters: Check to store the confidence limits for the shape and scale. By default, Minitab
stores the 95% confidence limits. You can change the confidence level in the Estimate subdialog box.
System: ID
Parameter Estimates
Trend Tests
MIL-Hdbk-189 Laplace's
TTT-based Pooled TTT-based Pooled Anderson-Darling
Test Statistic 34.73 33.20 9.13 5.73 50.59
P-Value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
DF 142 96
The test for equal shape parameters indicates that there is not enough evidence to say that the systems come from
populations with different shapes (P-Value = 0.425). The pooled estimate of the shape is valid.
The tests for trend are all significant (P-Value = 0.000). This means that there is enough evidence to reject the null
hypothesis that there is no trend in your data. You can conclude that the increasing trend is significant.
The event plot seems to show a pattern of failures that become more frequent as time goes on.
The plot of the MCF versus time shows a curve that is concave up. This plot is consistent with a shape that is greater than
one, or a system that is deteriorating.
Event plot
A plot of events (failures and retirements) for all systems. The plot consists of:
• Horizontal lines, which represent the lifetime of each system
• Cross (X) points, which represent the failure and retirement times of each system
• Cost values or frequencies (optional), which represent the cost or frequency of failure at the cross points
Use the event plot to visually determine whether successive failures are increasing, decreasing, or remaining constant.
Below are examples of event plots for improving, stable, and deteriorating systems.
Note For interval data, the event plot is constructed using the midpoint of each interval.
Confidence limits for difference in MCF: Check to store the confidence limits for the mean cumulative difference
function. By default, Minitab stores the 95% confidence limits. You can change the confidence level in the Options
subdialog box.
System: ID
Nonparametric Estimates
Mean
Cumulative Standard 95% Normal CI
Time Function Error Lower Upper System
33 0.07143 0.068830 0.01081 0.47218 179
88 0.14286 0.093522 0.03960 0.51540 132
250 0.21429 0.109664 0.07859 0.58426 128
272 0.28571 0.120736 0.12481 0.65408 137
287 0.35714 0.128060 0.17686 0.72120 181
302 0.42857 0.132260 0.23407 0.78471 119
317 0.50000 0.133631 0.29613 0.84423 182
364 0.57143 0.132260 0.36303 0.89945 112
367 0.64286 0.128060 0.43506 0.94990 167
391 0.71429 0.157421 0.46374 1.10019 112
402 0.78571 0.149098 0.54168 1.13970 175
421 0.85714 0.170747 0.58008 1.26653 137
431 0.92857 0.158574 0.66444 1.29771 155
444 1.00000 0.174964 0.70969 1.40906 119
462 1.07143 0.158574 0.80165 1.43200 101
481 1.14286 0.137661 0.90253 1.44718 145
498 1.21429 0.149098 0.95456 1.54468 182
500 1.28571 0.187044 0.96675 1.70992 119
500 1.35714 0.191853 1.02872 1.79042 128
548 1.42857 0.219328 1.05735 1.93013 112
552 1.50000 0.242226 1.09304 2.05848 137
625 1.57143 0.280566 1.10744 2.22982 137
635 1.64286 0.259653 1.20522 2.23940 169
650 1.71429 0.256120 1.27912 2.29750 169
657 1.78571 0.270649 1.32679 2.40338 182
687 1.86264 0.266655 1.40692 2.46596 179
687 1.93956 0.260862 1.49012 2.52456 181
700 2.03047 0.254826 1.58771 2.59671 175
708 2.13047 0.274527 1.65498 2.74258 169
710 2.24158 0.268755 1.77214 2.83537 145
710 2.35269 0.257586 1.89833 2.91581 155
710 2.46380 0.240267 2.03516 2.98273 167
719 2.63047 0.347216 2.03084 3.40714 137
724 2.83047 0.425594 2.10800 3.80055 112
724 3.03047 0.443994 2.27405 4.03849 128
724 3.23047 0.410559 2.51818 4.14424 132
System: ID
Nonparametric Estimates
Mean
Cumulative Standard 95% Normal CI
Time Function Error Lower Upper System
19 0.06667 0.064406 0.01004 0.44284 228
22 0.13333 0.087771 0.03670 0.48447 212
39 0.20000 0.103280 0.07269 0.55029 192
54 0.26667 0.114180 0.11521 0.61721 214
61 0.33333 0.121716 0.16295 0.68186 219
91 0.40000 0.157762 0.18465 0.86652 192
93 0.46667 0.159629 0.23869 0.91237 243
119 0.53333 0.207989 0.24834 1.14538 192
148 0.60000 0.263312 0.25386 1.41809 192
173 0.66667 0.261052 0.30945 1.43622 190
185 0.73333 0.274334 0.35227 1.52661 228
187 0.80000 0.269979 0.41289 1.55006 235
192 0.86667 0.264435 0.47658 1.57604 205
194 0.93333 0.257624 0.54335 1.60321 216
203 1.00000 0.249444 0.61330 1.63052 183
205 1.06667 0.257624 0.66442 1.71243 243
211 1.13333 0.264435 0.71738 1.79046 183
242 1.20000 0.269979 0.77210 1.86504 190
250 1.26667 0.257624 0.85023 1.88706 204
264 1.33333 0.277555 0.88664 2.00507 243
277 1.40000 0.295146 0.92615 2.11630 183
293 1.46667 0.280740 1.00786 2.13434 184
306 1.53333 0.324779 1.01238 2.32237 192
369 1.60000 0.309839 1.09468 2.33859 206
373 1.66667 0.335548 1.12325 2.47298 183
382 1.73333 0.319258 1.20810 2.48693 200
415 1.80000 0.342540 1.23962 2.61370 243
416 1.87143 0.340512 1.31007 2.67333 235
419 1.94835 0.338097 1.38662 2.73764 219
419 2.02527 0.349310 1.44435 2.83985 228
432 2.11618 0.347441 1.53391 2.91948 216
434 2.21618 0.345034 1.63337 3.00696 204
441 2.32729 0.341839 1.74512 3.10369 214
447 2.45229 0.337430 1.87262 3.21141 212
448 2.59515 0.331033 2.02109 3.33227 205
448 2.73801 0.315398 2.18466 3.43152 206
460 2.93801 0.298009 2.40832 3.58420 200
461 3.18801 0.449834 2.41776 4.20364 192
464 3.52134 0.511478 2.64893 4.68108 190
503 4.02134 0.535360 3.09778 5.22025 184
511 5.02134 0.535360 4.07443 6.18831 183
Mean
Cumulative
Difference Standard 95% Normal CI
Time Function Error Lower Upper
19 -0.06667 0.064406 -0.19290 0.05957
22 -0.13333 0.087771 -0.30536 0.03869
33 -0.06190 0.111541 -0.28052 0.15671
39 -0.12857 0.124114 -0.37183 0.11469
54 -0.19524 0.133322 -0.45654 0.06607
61 -0.26190 0.139830 -0.53597 0.01216
88 -0.19048 0.153496 -0.49132 0.11037
91 -0.25714 0.183399 -0.61660 0.10231
93 -0.32381 0.185008 -0.68642 0.03880
119 -0.39048 0.228047 -0.83744 0.05649
148 -0.45714 0.279427 -1.00481 0.09052
173 -0.52381 0.277299 -1.06730 0.01969
185 -0.59048 0.289837 -1.15855 -0.02241
187 -0.65714 0.285719 -1.21714 -0.09714
192 -0.72381 0.280486 -1.27355 -0.17407
194 -0.79048 0.274074 -1.32765 -0.25330
203 -0.85714 0.266399 -1.37928 -0.33501
205 -0.92381 0.274074 -1.46099 -0.38663
211 -0.99048 0.280486 -1.54022 -0.44073
242 -1.05714 0.285719 -1.61714 -0.49714
250 -1.05238 0.279994 -1.60116 -0.50360
264 -1.11905 0.298435 -1.70397 -0.53413
272 -1.04762 0.302679 -1.64086 -0.45438
277 -1.11429 0.318886 -1.73929 -0.48928
287 -1.04286 0.321731 -1.67344 -0.41228
293 -1.10952 0.308568 -1.71431 -0.50474
302 -1.03810 0.310335 -1.64634 -0.42985
306 -1.10476 0.350677 -1.79208 -0.41745
317 -1.03333 0.351196 -1.72166 -0.34500
364 -0.96190 0.350677 -1.64922 -0.27459
367 -0.89048 0.349114 -1.57473 -0.20622
369 -0.95714 0.335260 -1.61424 -0.30004
373 -1.02381 0.359155 -1.72774 -0.31988
382 -1.09048 0.343985 -1.76467 -0.41628
391 -1.01905 0.355960 -1.71672 -0.32138
402 -0.94762 0.352358 -1.63823 -0.25701
415 -1.01429 0.373582 -1.74649 -0.28208
416 -1.08571 0.371724 -1.81428 -0.35715
419 -1.23956 0.379800 -1.98395 -0.49517
421 -1.16813 0.388808 -1.93018 -0.40608
431 -1.09670 0.383618 -1.84858 -0.34482
432 -1.18761 0.381917 -1.93616 -0.43907
434 -1.28761 0.379729 -2.03187 -0.54336
441 -1.39872 0.376828 -2.13729 -0.66015
444 -1.32729 0.384013 -2.07995 -0.57464
447 -1.45229 0.380094 -2.19726 -0.70733
448 -1.73801 0.360677 -2.44492 -1.03109
460 -1.93801 0.345574 -2.61532 -1.26070
461 -2.18801 0.482663 -3.13401 -1.24201
Second Variable:
Accelerating: Enter the column containing the predictor values for the second accelerating variable.
Relationship: Choose a linear (no transformation), Arrhenius, inverse temperature, or loge (power) transformation
for the accelerating variable. By default, Minitab assumes the relationship is linear.
Factor: Enter the column containing the factor levels.
Include interaction term between variables: Check to include an interaction term between the accelerating variable
and the second variable.
Assumed distribution: Choose one of eight common lifetime distributions: Weibull (default), smallest extreme value,
exponential, normal, lognormal, logistic, and loglogistic.
Text categories (factor levels) are processed in alphabetical order by default. If you wish, you can define your own order −
see Ordering Text Categories.
The way you set up the worksheet depends on the type of censoring you have, as described in Failure times.
Minitab automatically excludes all observations with missing values from all calculations.
Note If you have no censored values, you can skip steps 6 & 7.
6 Click Censor.
7 In Use censoring columns, enter the censoring columns. The first censoring column is paired with the first data
column, the second censoring column is paired with the second data column, and so on.
By default, Minitab uses the lowest value in the censoring column to indicate a censored observation. To use some
other value, enter that value in Censoring value.
8 If you like, use one or more of the dialog box options, then click OK.
Note To change the method for calculating probability plot points, see Tools > Options > Individual Graphs >
Probability Plots.
• Choose one:
− Display confidence intervals for middle percentile
− Display confidence intervals for all percentiles
− Display no confidence intervals
• To include failure times (exact failure time or midpoint of interval for interval censored observation) on the plot,
check Display failure times on plot.
3 Click OK.
4 If you like, change the confidence level for the intervals (default = 95%): Click Estimate. In Confidence level, enter a
value, then click OK.
Relation plot
The relation plot displays failure time versus an accelerating variable. By default, lines are drawn at the 10th, 50th, and
90th percentiles. The 50th percentile is a good estimate for the time a part will last for the given conditions. For an
illustration, see Example of accelerated life testing.
You can optionally specify up to 10 percentiles to plot and display the failure times (exact failure time or midpoint of
interval for interval censored observation) on the plot. You can enter design value(s) to include on the plot(s).
The relation plot(s) displayed depend on the number of predictors in your model:
• When you have one accelerating variable, one relation plot is displayed.
• When you have two accelerating variable, two relation plots are displayed. The first plot contains the first accelerating
variable on the x-axis and is held at each level of the second accelerating variable.
• When you have one accelerating variable and one factor, one relation plot is displayed. The accelerating variable is on
the x-axis and is held at each level of the factor.
Probability plots
The Accelerated Life Testing command draws several probability plots to help you assess the fit of the chosen
distribution. You can draw probability plots for the standardized and Cox-Snell residuals. You can use these plots to
assess whether a particular distribution fits your data. In general, the closer the points fall to the fitted line, the better the
fit.
You can also choose to draw probability plots for each level of the accelerating variable based on individual fits or on the
fitted model. You can use these plots to assess whether the distribution, transformation, and assumption of equal shape
(Weibull or exponential) or scale (other distributions) are appropriate. The probability plot based on the fitted model
includes fitted lines that are based on the chosen distribution and transformation. If the points do not fit the lines
adequately, then consider a different transformation or distribution.
The probability plot based on the individual fits includes fitted lines that are calculated by individually fitting the distribution
to each level of the accelerating variable. If the distributions have equal shape (Weibull or exponential) or scale (other
distributions) parameters, then the fitted lines should be approximately parallel. The points should fit the line adequately if
the chosen distribution is appropriate.
Minitab provides one goodness-of-fit measure: the Anderson-Darling statistic. A smaller Anderson-Darling statistic
indicates that the distribution provides a better fit. You can use the Anderson-darling statistic to compare the fit of
competing models.
For a discussion of probability plots, see Probability plots.
Distribution: Weibull
Regression Table
Log-Likelihood = -564.693
Table of Percentiles
Output
The default output consists of the regression table and relation plot.
Regression table
The regression table displays:
• the estimated coefficients for the regression model and their
− standard errors.
− Z-values and p-values. The Z-test tests that the coefficient is significantly different than 0; in other words, is it a
significant predictor?
− 95% confidence interval.
• the Scale parameter, a measure of the overall variability, and its
− standard error.
− 95% confidence interval.
• the Shape parameter (Weibull or exponential) or Scale parameter (other distributions), a measure of the overall
variability, and its
− standard error.
− 95% confidence interval.
− the log-likelihood.
• Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics for each level of the accelerating variable based on the fitted model.
For this observation... Enter in the Start column... Enter in the End column...
Right censored time after which the failure ∗ (missing value symbol)
occurred
Left censored ∗ (missing value symbol) time before which the failure occurred
Interval censored time at start of interval during time at the end of interval during which the
which the failure occurred failure occurred
This example uses a frequency column as well.
Start End Frequency
20 units are left censored at
10000 hours.
Time Censor
53 F
The Time column contains 60 F The Censor column contains the
failure times. 53 F corresponding censoring indicators:
an F designates an actual failure
40 F time; a C designates a unit that was
51 F removed from the test, and was thus
censored.
99 C
35 F
53 F
. .
. .
. .
etc. etc.
Censoring indicators can be numbers, text, or date/time values. If you do not specify which value indicates censoring in
the Censor subdialog box, Minitab assumes the lower of the two values indicates censoring, and the higher of the two
values indicates an exact failure.
The data column and associated censoring column must be the same length, although pairs of data/censor columns
(each pair corresponds to a sample) can have different lengths.
Failure times
The response data you gather for the regression with life data commands are the individual failure times. For example,
you might collect failure times for units running at a given temperature. You might also collect samples under different
temperatures, or under varying conditions of any combination of accelerating variables.
Individual failure times are the same type of data used for Distribution Analysis.
Life data is often censored or incomplete in some way. Suppose you are monitoring air conditioner fans to find out the
percentage of fans that fail within a three-year warranty period. The table below describes the types of observations you
can have:
Exact failure time You know exactly when the failure The fan failed at exactly 500 days.
occurred.
Right censored You only know that the failure The fan had not yet failed at 500 days.
occurred after a particular time.
Left censored You only know that the failure The fan failed sometime before 500
occurred before a particular time. days.
Interval censored You only know that the failure The fan failed sometime between 475
occurred between two particular and 500 days.
times.
How you set up your worksheet depends, in part, on the type of censoring you have:
• When your data consist of exact failures and right-censored observations, see Uncensored/right censored data.
• When your data have a varied censoring scheme, see Uncensored/arbitrarily censored data.
Note If you have no censored data, you can skip steps 5 & 6.
5 Click Censor.
6 In Use censoring columns, enter the censoring columns. The first censoring column is paired with the first data
column, the second censoring column is paired with the second data column, and so on.
By default, Minitab uses the lowest value in the censoring column to indicate a censored value. To use some other
value, enter that value in Censoring value.
7 If you like, use any dialog box options, then click OK.
Regression with Life Data creates a set of design variables for each factor in the model. If there are k levels, there will be
k - 1 design variables and the reference level will be coded as 0. Here are two examples of the default coding scheme:
reference A1 A2 A3 reference B1 B2
level is 1 1 0 0 0 level is High High 0 0
2 1 0 0 Low 1 0
3 0 1 0 Medium 0 1
4 0 0 1
By default, Minitab designates the lowest numeric, date/time, or text value as the reference factor level. If you like, you
can change this reference value in the Options subdialog box.
Confidence level: Enter the confidence level for all of the confidence intervals. The default is 95%.
Confidence intervals: Choose to use two-sided confidence intervals (the default) or just an upper or lower confidence
interval.
Note To change the method for calculating probability plot points, see Tools > Options > Individual Graphs >
Probability Plots.
Note To draw a probability plot with more options, store the residuals in the Storage subdialog box, then use the
probability plot included with the Parametric Distribution Analysis commands.
In addition, table of percentiles and/or survival probabilities: Choose to display the output described above, plus a
table of percentiles and/or survival probabilities (if requested in Regression with Life Data - Estimate).
In addition, list of factor level values, tests for terms with more than one degree of freedom: Choose to display
all of the output described above, plus a list of the factor level values, and a multiple degrees of freedom test.
Show log-likelihood for each iteration of algorithm: Check to display the log-likelihood at each iteration of the
parameter estimation process.
Distribution: Weibull
Regression Table
Log-Likelihood = -562.525
Table of Percentiles
Default output
The default output consists of the regression table, which displays:
• the estimated coefficients for the regression model and their
− standard errors.
− Z-values and p-values. The Z-test tests that the coefficient is significantly different than 0; in other words, is it a
significant predictor?
− 95% confidence interval.
• the Scale parameter, a measure of the overall variability, and its
− standard error.
− 95% confidence interval.
• the Shape parameter (Weibull or exponential) or Scale parameter (other distributions), a measure of the overall
variability, and its
− standard error.
− 95% confidence interval.
• the log-likelihood.
Probit Analysis
Probit Analysis Overview
A probit study consists of imposing a stress (or stimulus) on a number of units, then recording whether the unit failed or
not. Probit analysis differs from accelerated life testing in that the response data is binary (success or failure), rather than
an actual failure time.
In the engineering sciences, a common experiment would be destructive inspecting. Suppose you are testing how well
submarine hull materials hold up when exposed to underwater explosions. You subject the materials to various
magnitudes of explosions, then record whether or not the hull cracked. In the life sciences, a common experiment would
be the bioassay, where you subject organisms to various levels of a stress and record whether or not they survive.
Probit analysis can answer these kinds of questions: For each hull material, what shock level cracks 10% of the hulls?
What concentration of a pollutant kills 50% of the fish? Or, at a given pesticide application, what's the probability that an
insect dies?
Probit Analysis
Stat > Reliability/Survival > Probit Analysis
Use probit analysis when you want to estimate percentiles, survival probabilities, and cumulative failure probabilities for
the distribution of a stress, and draw probability plots. When you enter a factor and choose a Weibull, lognormal, or
loglogistic distribution, you can also compare the potency of the stress under different conditions.
Minitab calculates the model coefficients using a modified Newton-Raphson algorithm.
Response variable
The response data is binomial, so you have two possible outcomes, success or failure. You can enter the data in either
success/trial or response/frequency format. Here is the same data arranged both ways:
Factors
Text categories (factor levels) are processed in alphabetical order by default. If you wish, you can define your own order −
see Ordering Text Categories.
where
= the probability of a response for the jth stress level
normal 0 1
reference A1 A2 A3 reference B1 B2
level is 1 1 0 0 0 level is High High 0 0
2 1 0 0 Low 1 0
3 0 1 0 Medium 0 1
4 0 0 1
By default, Minitab designates the lowest numeric, date/time, or text value as the reference factor level. If you like, you
can change this reference value in the Options subdialog box.
Percentiles
At what stress level do half of the units fail? How much pesticide do you need to apply to kill 90% of the insects? You are
looking for percentiles.
Common percentiles used are the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles, also known in the life sciences as the ED 10, ED 50
and ED 90 (ED = effective dose).
The probit analysis automatically displays a table of percentiles in the Session window, along with 95% fiducial confidence
intervals. You can also request:
• additional percentiles to be added to the table
• normal approximation rather than fiducial confidence intervals
• a confidence level other than 95%
The Percentile column contains the stress level required for the corresponding percent of the events to occur.
In this example, you exposed light bulbs to various voltages and recorded whether or not the bulb burned out before 800
hours.
Table of Percentiles
Standard 95.0% Fiducial CI
Probability plots
A probability plot displays the percentiles. You can use the probability plot to assess whether a particular distribution fits
your data. In general, the closer the points fall to the fitted line, the better the fit.
When you have more than one factor level, lines and confidence intervals are drawn for each level. If the plot looks
cluttered, you can turn off the confidence intervals in the Graphs subdialog box. You can also change the confidence level
for the 95% confidence by entering a new value in the Estimate subdialog box.
Survival plots
Survival plots display the survival probabilities versus stress. Each point on the plot represents the proportion of units
surviving at a stress level. The survival curve is surrounded by two outer lines − the 95% confidence interval for the curve,
which provide reasonable values for the "true" survival function.
Note Do not enter a starting value for the natural response rate here.
Log-likelihood for last iteration: Check to store the log-likelihood for the last iteration.
Distribution: Weibull
Response Information
Factor Information
Regression Table
Standard
Variable Coef Error Z P
Constant -97.0190 7.67326 -12.64 0.000
Volts 20.0192 1.58695 12.61 0.000
Type
B 0.179368 0.159832 1.12 0.262
Natural
Response 0
Log-Likelihood = -214.213
Goodness-of-Fit Tests
Method Chi-Square DF P
Pearson 2.51617 7 0.926
Deviance 2.49188 7 0.928
Type = A
Tolerance Distribution
Parameter Estimates
Table of Percentiles
95.0% Fiducial
Standard CI
Percent Percentile Error Lower Upper
1 101.141 1.84244 96.9868 104.341
2 104.731 1.63546 101.043 107.573
3 106.901 1.50897 103.501 109.527
4 108.476 1.41713 105.287 110.946
5 109.720 1.34490 106.698 112.068
6 110.753 1.28539 107.868 113.001
7 111.639 1.23483 108.872 113.802
8 112.416 1.19095 109.752 114.506
9 113.110 1.15225 110.536 115.135
10 113.737 1.11771 111.246 115.706
20 118.082 0.898619 116.121 119.700
30 120.881 0.790097 119.201 122.342
40 123.069 0.735850 121.550 124.472
50 124.960 0.717911 123.523 126.372
60 126.714 0.728520 125.299 128.191
70 128.454 0.764984 127.010 130.050
80 130.330 0.830361 128.802 132.108
90 132.683 0.943441 130.989 134.754
91 132.980 0.959732 131.261 135.092
92 133.298 0.977596 131.551 135.455
93 133.641 0.997402 131.864 135.848
94 134.018 1.01968 132.206 136.280
95 134.439 1.04522 132.587 136.765
96 134.922 1.07534 133.023 137.323
97 135.500 1.11242 133.542 137.993
98 136.243 1.16159 134.207 138.857
99 137.358 1.23831 135.198 140.159
95.0% Fiducial CI
Stress Probability Lower Upper
117 0.830608 0.780679 0.878549
Type = B
Tolerance Distribution
Parameter Estimates
Table of Percentiles
95.0% Fiducial
Standard CI
Percent Percentile Error Lower Upper
1 100.239 1.86171 96.0399 103.471
2 103.797 1.65621 100.059 106.673
3 105.947 1.53027 102.496 108.607
4 107.508 1.43857 104.267 110.012
5 108.742 1.36626 105.666 111.123
6 109.765 1.30652 106.828 112.045
7 110.643 1.25563 107.823 112.837
8 111.413 1.21135 108.697 113.533
9 112.101 1.17218 109.476 114.156
10 112.723 1.13711 110.180 114.720
20 117.028 0.910842 115.029 118.659
30 119.803 0.792908 118.102 121.256
40 121.972 0.727988 120.452 123.344
50 123.845 0.698947 122.429 125.203
60 125.584 0.698766 124.211 126.984
70 127.309 0.725223 125.925 128.806
80 129.168 0.781440 127.719 130.828
90 131.500 0.885656 129.901 133.434
91 131.794 0.901010 130.172 133.767
92 132.109 0.917912 130.461 134.125
93 132.449 0.936720 130.773 134.513
94 132.822 0.957949 131.114 134.939
95 133.240 0.982380 131.493 135.418
96 133.719 1.01129 131.927 135.969
97 134.292 1.04700 132.444 136.631
98 135.028 1.09453 133.104 137.484
99 136.132 1.16901 134.090 138.772
95.0% Fiducial CI
Stress Probability Lower Upper
117 0.800867 0.745980 0.854567
• the table of percentiles, which includes the estimated percentiles, standard errors, and 95% fiducial confidence
intervals.
• the probability plot, which helps you to assess whether the chosen distribution fits your data.
• the relative potency − compares the potency of a stress for two levels of a factor. To get this output, you must have a
factor, and choose a Weibull, lognormal, or loglogistic distribution.
Suppose you want to compare how the amount of voltage affects two types of light bulbs, and the relative potency is
.98. This means that light bulb 1 running at 117 volts would fail at approximately the same time as light bulb 2 running
at 114.66 volts (117 x .98).
Index
A I
Accelerated life test model.......................................... 18 Inverse temperature transformation ......................... 143
Accelerated Life Test Plans ........................................ 16 L
Accelerated Life Test Plans (Stat menu)................. 16 Least squares estimates....................................... 39, 88
Accelerated Life Testing ........................................... 141 Loge (power) transformation .................................... 143
Accelerated Life Testing (Stat menu) .................... 141 M
Anderson-Darling statistic ..................................... 24, 64 Maximum likelihood estimates.............................. 39, 88
Arrhenius transformation........................................... 143 Mean cumulative difference function plot ................. 133
C Mean cumulative function plot .......................... 123, 132
Censored data . 7, 8, 24, 26, 31, 35, 54, 67, 73, 78, 103, M-failure test plan ......................................................... 9
115
Multiple failure modes............................. 38, 55, 80, 104
Cumulative failure plot .......................................... 43, 91
Nonparametric distribution analysis ................ 55, 104
Parametric distribution analysis......................... 43, 91
Parametric distribution analysis ........................ 38, 80
D
N
Demonstration Test Plans............................................. 8
Natural response rate ............................................... 165
Demonstration Test Plans (Stat menu) ..................... 8
Nonparametric Distribution Analysis (Arbitrary
Distribution ID Plot (Arbitrary Censoring).................... 26 Censoring) .............................................................. 53
Distribution ID Plot (Stat menu)............................... 26 Nonparametric Distribution Analysis (Stat menu) ... 53
Distribution ID Plot (Right Censoring) ......................... 66 Nonparametric Distribution Analysis (Right Censoring)
Distribution ID Plot (Stat menu)............................... 66 .............................................................................. 102
Distribution Overview Plot (Arbitrary Censoring) ........ 31 Nonparametric Distribution Analysis (Stat menu) . 102
Distribution Overview Plot (Stat menu) ................... 31 Nonparametric Growth Curve................................... 130
Distribution Overview Plot (Right Censoring) ............. 72 Nonparametric Growth Curve (Stat menu) ........... 130
Distribution Overview Plot (Stat menu) ................... 72 P
Duane plot................................................................. 125 Parametric Distribution Analysis (Arbitrary Censoring)
................................................................................ 35
E
Parametric Distribution Analysis (Stat menu) ......... 35
Estimation methods for reliability analysis ...... 23, 39, 88
Parametric Distribution Analysis (Right Censoring) ... 77
Least squares method....................................... 39, 88
Parametric Distribution Analysis (Stat menu) ......... 77
Maximum likelihood method.............................. 39, 88
Parametric Growth Curve ......................................... 118
Parametric growth curves...................................... 122
Parametric Growth Curve (Stat menu) ................. 118
Estimation Test Plans ................................................. 12
Pearson correlation coefficient ............................. 24, 64
Estimation Test Plans (Stat menu).......................... 12
Percentiles............................................................ 37, 79
Event plot .......................................................... 124, 131
Accelerated life testing.......................................... 144
F
Parametric distribution analysis ........................ 37, 79
Failure censoring .......................................................... 7
Probit analysis....................................................... 166
Frequency column ...................................................... 65
POP graph.................................................................. 10
G
Probability of passing the demonstration test plot...... 10
Goodness-of-fit statistics....................................... 24, 64
Probability Plot.............................. 44, 93, 146, 156, 167
Growth curve data..................................... 115, 116, 117
Probability Plot (Reliability/Survival) 44, 93, 146, 156,
Growth curves................................................... 118, 130 167
Nonparametric Growth Curves.............................. 130 Probit Analysis.......................................................... 163
Parametric Growth Curve...................................... 118 Probit Analysis (Stat menu) .................................. 163
H R
Hazard plots............................................ 43, 58, 92, 105 Regression with Life Data ........................................ 151
Nonparametric analysis................................... 58, 105 Regression with Life Data (Stat menu) ................. 151
Parametric analysis ........................................... 43, 92 Relation plot.............................................................. 146
Repairable systems analysis ............................ 118, 130
S T
Stacked data ......................................................... 25, 65 Test plans ......................................................... 8, 12, 16
Survival plots................................... 45, 59, 94, 106, 107 Accelerated life test plans ....................................... 16
Comparing survival plots ....................................... 107 Demonstration test plans .......................................... 8
Nonparametric distribution analysis ................ 59, 106 Estimation test plans............................................... 12
Parametric distribution analysis......................... 45, 94 Time censoring ............................................................. 8
Probit analysis ....................................................... 168 Total time on test plot ............................................... 126
Survival probabilities ............................. 37, 80, 144, 166 Trend tests for parametric growth curves ................. 120
Accelerated life testing .......................................... 144 U
Parametric distribution analysis......................... 37, 80 Unstacked data..................................................... 25, 65
Probit analysis ....................................................... 166