Assumptions Value

Growth Rate of
Cement Installed
Capacity 10.37%

Growth Rate of
Cement Prodouction
5.36%

Electricity Required for

1 MnT of Cement 20
Prodouction

Energy Requirment for

1 Kg Cement 872
Prodouction

Therml Energy
Required for 1 MW
Captive Power
Prodouction for a Year 24571800000

Domestic Coal GCV

4496

Petcoke GCV 8200

Alternative Fuel as %
of Total Thermal 3
Requirment

Average Percentage of 6000

GCV of Imported Coal

Railway Rake Carrying Ca 4000

Year Cement Installed Capacity Cement Prodouction Electricity Requirment

2012-13 325 247 4932
2013-14 350 256 5117
2014-15 356 271 5419
2015-16 479 283 5669
2016-17 502 280 5600
2017-18 532 298 5954
2018-19 587 337 6746
2019-20 648 355 7108
2020-21 715 374 7489
2021-22 790 395 7890
2022-23 871 416 8313
2023-24 962 438 8759
2024-25 1061 461 9228
 Unit Note
CAGR growth for
FY2012-13 to FY2017-
Percentage 18 Considered for
future growth

CAGR growth for

FY2012-13 to FY2018-
Percentage 19 Considered for
future growth

CMA Analysis
MW

Kcal

Kcal

Weighted Average GCV

of Coal Grade Supplied
Kcal/Kg to Cement Sector in FY
2017-18

Kcal/Kg

Thermal Substitution
Rate of AFR was 0.6%
in 2010, 4% in 2015
and 3% in FY16 & FY17.
Percentage As per WBCSD report
on "Low Carbon
Technology Road Map
for Cement Sector"

Kcal/kg

Tonne/Rake

Total Energy Requirment Domestic Coal Supply Energy Supply from Energy Required Petcoke Use by
to Cement Sector (in Domestic Coal from Other Sources Cement Sector
of Cement Sector (Kcal) MnT) (Kcal) (in MnT)
336204377825200 13 58902526128214.8 277301851696985 6.08
348762929766800 12 53956512483860.8 294806417282939 7.05
369364844328400 11 51258686859667.8 318106157468732 8.73
386431769182600 9 40467384362895.6 345964384819704 11.57
381684821955000 6 28776806658059.1 352908015296941 14.38
405863987959800 6 28282205293623.7 377581782666176 15.00
459864943339600 7 30395502032574.9 429469441307025 15.00
484508566375009 7 31994429611340.9 452514136763668 14.03
510472812269601 7 33677467312696.7 476795344956904 15.81
537828451653721 8 35449039672697.5 502379411981024 17.82
566650047672803 8 37313803976070.5 529336243696733 20.08
597016159223804 9 39276662499745 557739496724059 22.63
629009555082844 9 41342775400444 587666779682400 25.50

Railway Rakes
Railway Rakes Required Required for Pet
Year for Domestic Coal Coke
Transportation Transportation

2012-13 3275 1520

2013-14 3000 1763
2014-15 2850 2183
2015-16 2250 2894
2016-17 1600 3594
2017-18 1573 3750
2018-19 1690 3750
2019-20 1779 3508
2020-21 1872 3953
2021-22 1971 4455
2022-23 2075 5020
2023-24 2184 5657
2024-25 2299 6376
 Petcoke Energy Contribution by
Contribution to Energy Required Imported Coal
Alternative Fuel (in
Cement Sector (in from Imported Coal Requirment (in MnT)
Kcal)
Kcal)
 49839600000000 3.0165E+12 2.2445E+14 37
57810000000000 3.8264E+12 2.3317E+14 39
71586000000000 4.9555E+12 2.4156E+14 40
94906800000000 6.3399E+12 2.4472E+14 41
117883200000000 1.1451E+13 2.2357E+14 37
123000000000000 1.2176E+13 2.4241E+14 40
123000000000000 1.3796E+13 2.9267E+14 49
115049476382054 1.4535E+13 3.2293E+14 54
129654050502348 1.5314E+13 3.3183E+14 55
146112553835905 1.6135E+13 3.4013E+14 57
164660327276574 1.7000E+13 3.4768E+14 58
185562586287271 1.7910E+13 3.5427E+14 59
209118213228035 1.8870E+13 3.5968E+14 60

Total Annual
Rakes
Railway Rakes Requirment for
Required for Imported Cement Sector
Coal Transportation for Fuel
Transportation

9352 14146
9715 14478
10065 15098
10197 15340
9316 14510
10100 15423
12195 17635
13455 18742
13826 19651
14172 20598
14487 21581
14761 22602
14987 23661
 Particulars Figures Units
Electricty requres for 1 MnT Cement 20 MW
Cement Production in FY18 298 MW
Electricity Required for total Production Capacity 5960 MW
Electricty Generation from Captive Sources @60% 3576 MW
3300 Kcal/kWh
SHR
4496 Kcal/Kg
Avergae GCV of Coal
As per CERC tariff
85% Rgulation
PLF
Capacity 1 MW
Mus in a Year 7 MUs
Units 7446000 kWh
Total Thermal Heat Required 24571800000 Kcal
Total Coal Required 5464801 in Kg
Coal Requirment 5465 in Tonne
Coal Requirment for 3576 MW 19542128 Tonne
20 MnT
Domestic Coal Supply @35% 7 MnT
Rake Requirment (HL Rakes)@ 4000 tonne/Rake 1710 Nos
 Note

As per DVC Chandarpur TPP of 130 MW unit SHR (3100 Kcal/kWh), So,
similar term Captive Power GCV taken as 3300 (Kcal/kWh)

Avergae GCVof G-11 Grade Coal

 CAGR Growth for Coal
Production 5%

Coal Supply
Total Non- to Cement
Domestic Coal Domestic Coal Supply Import to
Coking Coal Sector as
Years Production (in to Cement Cement Sector Percentage
Import of
Mnt) (in Mnt) (in MnT)
(in MnT) Total
Production

2012-13 497 13

110 13 3%

2013-14 520 12

130 13 2%

2014-15 542 11

174 12 2%
2015-16 597 9 159 10 2%
2016-17 613 6 149 5 1%
2017-18 629 6 145 6 1%
2018-19 676 7 164 15 1%
2019-20 712 7
2020-21 749 7
2021-22 788 8
2022-23 830 8
2023-24 874 9
2024-25 919 9

% Growth 22%
Petcoke

Domestic
AFR Year Supply

Year AFR Percentage Contribution as % TSR 2012-13 7.8

20010-11 0.60% 2013-14 11.27
2011-12 0.73% 2014-15 11.67
2012-13 0.90% 2015-16 13.32
2013-14 1.10% 2016-17 12.92
2014-15 1.34% 2017-18 13.87
2015-16 1.64% 2018-19 13.66
2016-17 3.00% 2019-20 12.63
2017-18 3.00% 2020-21 14.23
2018-19 3.00% 2021-22 16.04
2019-20 3.00% 2022-23 18.07
2020-21 3.00% 2023-24 20.37
2021-22 3.00% 2024-25 22.95
2022-23 3.00%
2023-24 3.00%
2024-25 3.00%
 AFR Use %
Total Pet Coke (in MnT) Note
Considered

Supply to
Domestic Import Total Cement
Supply Sector

Domestic Coal
Supply to Cement
Sector Considering
1% of total
Production as per
7.8 2.33 10.13 Historical trend

6.08
Cement Sector
petcoke
consumption
considerd as 60%
of total Petcoke
11.27 0.48 11.75 consumption in
country

7.05
Thermal
Substitution Rate
of AFR was 0.6% in
2010, 4% in 2015
and 3% in FY16 &
FY17. As per
WBCSD report on
"Low Carbon
11.67 2.88 14.55 Technology Road
Map for Cement
Sector"

8.73
13.32 5.97 19.29 11.57
12.92 11.04 23.96 14.38
 13.87 11.78 25.65 15.00
13.66 7.09 20.75 15.00
12.63 10.76 23.38 14.03
14.23 12.12 26.35 15.81
16.04 13.66 29.70 17.82
18.07 15.40 33.47 20.08
20.37 17.35 37.72 22.63
22.95 19.55 42.50 25.50

CAGR Growth o 13%

Petcoke Calculation of Avergae Grade of Coal

Supply of Coal to
Percentage of Percentage of
Import Total Grades Cement Sector in
Total Total FY 2017-18

77% 2.33 23% 10.13 Grade-6 2.05

96% 0.48 4% 11.75 Grade-7 4.22
80% 2.88 20% 14.55 Grade-8 3.90
69% 5.97 31% 19.29 Grade-9 3.38
54% 11.04 46% 23.96 Grade-10 9.47
54% 11.78 46% 25.65 Grade-11 15.28
66% 7.09 34% 20.75 Grade-12 3.44
54% 10.76 46% 23 Grade-13 0.29
54% 12.12 46% 26 Grade-14 0.61
54% 13.66 46% 30
54% 15.40 46% 33
54% 17.35 46% 38
54% 19.55 46% 43
ergae Grade of Coal
Weighted Averge of GCV
Mid GCV of Supplied to Cement
Grades Sector in FY 2017-18 (in
Kcal)

5650
5350
5050
4750 4496
4450
4150
3850
3550
3250
 Rake Allotment
Year SECL MCL CCL ECL WCL Total
2017-18 543 4 2 0 1 550
2018-19 919 36 12 2 10 979

Arrear of Rakes
Year SECL MCL CCL ECL WCL Total
2017-18 487 4 2 0 1 494
2018-19 640 36 12 2 10 700