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by Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/09/2019 - 15:30
Nobody wins in a trade war, and tariffs are always a bad idea, but let’s not forget that they are just a
weapon.
Shortly before the US launched its set of tariffs, the Chinese government accelerated two dangerous
policies that we cannot ignore: intensifying capital controls , limiting the outflow of dollars from the
country, and increasing the list of banned companies and sites, two measures that proved that the Chinese
government was unlikely to open its economy, rather the opposite. These measures intensified in the last
year and a half. Two other factors show China’s decision to halt the opening of its system. The “Made In
China 2025 Plan” and the removal of the two-term limit on the presidency, effectively allowing Xi Jinping to
remain in power for life.
Between 2004 and 2018, the United States filed 41 complaints against China at the World Trade
Organization, focused on 27 different areas. The vast majority of these WTO resolutions are not enforced
(” Paper Compliance: How China Implements WTO Decisions.” The previous strategy of looking the other
way and expecting the Chinese economy to open up little by little met the reality of
increased interventionism.
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6/9/2019 Much More Than A Trade War | Zero Hedge
The experiment
A senior official of the US Administration explained to me several months ago that there were two opposing
opinions in the White House. The first claimed that starting a trade war would sink the US dollar, make US
bond yields soar and throw the economy into a recession. The second estimated that the risk to the US
economy was small and manageable. These were proven right with the US 10-year bond at 2.13%, its
demand (bid-to-cover) comfortably doubling supply despite the end of the Federal Reserve purchases, and
the dollar (DXY Index) at a conveniently strong level, adding very solid employment level, wages, and
economic growth. The US dollar strengthened its position as the world reserve currency at 88% share of
transactions while the yuan was only 4%, according to the BIS.
Meanwhile, the proponents of a “gold-backed” yuan faced the reality of a Chinese central bank that injected
and increased the money supply in a more aggressive way than the US Federal Reserve. China is not
following sound money policies. The PBOC is copying the same policies of the Fed and BOJ by the book. It is
not even remotely close to a gold standard, as gold reserves are less than 0.25% of M2 money supply.
The gold-backed-yuan mirage faded with two consecutive devaluations, a currency that is used in less
than 4% of global transactions and an extremely aggressive monetary policy.
“Firing blanks”
Many have mentioned that China could sell its US treasury holdings or threaten with its rare earth supply,
essential for the manufacture of technological equipment.
China is not the largest holder of US bonds in the world, not even close. It’s the US. In fact, China has
already reduced part of its holdings in US bonds and yields fell.
No, China could not weaponize its US debt holdings because it would run out of reserves and sink the
economy and the yuan with it (read this excellent analysis ). China’s FX reserves have fallen by 21% from
the highs and the vast majority of them cannot be used.
The only solution for China would be to eliminate its capital control and let the yuan float, but then it could
face a huge devaluation that would lead the country to a spiral of bankruptcies which may, in turn, lead to
more yuan printing, a yuan that is not used worldwide and with diminishing demand. Recession or financial
crisis.
The confidence of the hawks in the United States administration was strengthened by the evidence that “the
Chinese currency is not even wanted by the Chinese” given the evidence of capital outflows and a huge
percentage of loans backed by copper and other commodities. China’s dependence on the US dollar
turned out to be double: via FX reserves and via commodities. Their vast reserves are much smaller and less
accessible than many thought.
70% of the software used in China is pirated from the US. The negative impact for the North American
economy, only in the area of intellectual property, is $600 billion (“China: Effect of Intellectual Property
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Infringement and Indigenous Innovation Policies on the US Economy “) a larger figure than the trade surplus
that China has with the US.
It is not just a battle for control of technology, but security. The American technological giants are private
companies and most of their leaders are critical of the White House Administration. The technological
giants in China are either government-owned, semi-state owned or concessions to members of the
communist party.
The wrongly-called trade war is much more than tariffs. There are many additional forms of
protectionism, and capital controls, restrictions on currency, lack of separation of powers and respect for
intellectual property are also forms of protectionism.
The United States has discovered the Achilles heel of China. The same one Japan had in the 80s when it
seemed that it was going to invade the world. Its dependence on the US dollar to maintain its large
domestic imbalances, a very fragile house of cards of excess capacity, real estate bubble and unproductive
spending.
Does the United States have anything to lose? A lot, but much less than China. According to Oxford
Economics, the impact on US GDP of a total and prolonged trade war would be between 50% and 70% higher
in China than in the US, and we have to add the domino effect of bankruptcies in China Global fund
flows move to the US and out of emerging economies.
The strength of the United States is to have a safer, open economy where currency remains a global
reserve, not because of military power, but because the rest of the currencies fall into the trap of carrying
out the same monetary imbalances as the US but without its free market, openness and real demand for
currency.
China’s Achilles heel has been to try to be a reserve currency whilst maintaining capital controls and
increasing state intervention, playing to be the US without its dynamism, openness and free market. Its
only card was a debt-fueled high-growth economy. Chinese officials knew it was impossible, but thought
that being the “engine of world growth” would allow them to get away with it. They have met with a
customer, the United States, which is the only one that supports its huge trade surplus ( China has a trade
deficit with most of its other partners), and that does not depend so much on exports. The US exports less
than 12% of its GDP.
The United States knows that this war has important negative internal economic consequences. Tariffs are
not a solution, only a weapon, because if China does not begin to open its real economy, the problem will
be greater in the long term.
China and its citizens would greatly benefit from eliminating barriers. Moreover, if it does and truly
becomes a reserve currency by merit, it will be excellent for the US because the perverse incentive of the
central banks will be counterbalanced. But China seems to prefer to fall into the same monetary, legal and
commercial errors rather than reduce control. And that is a big problem, as tariffs serve as a justification
to perpetuate dictatorial mercantilism, not to reduce it.
Protectionism is not solved with more protectionism, but when the opponent does not seek trade as a tool
of mutual progress, but as a Trojan horse to take control, we find ourselves with much more than a trade
war. A fight between two models of society.
The United States and China will find a form of agreement, but it cannot come from closing our eyes to the
totalitarian risks of the Chinese system. Both China and the US know that this battle is not to see who
wins, but who loses less, and who drops the weapons first.
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The Chinese will sink into a really bad recession or even depression that will last 20 years, they will
slaughter their people and and all the infrastructure they've build recently will quickly crumble.
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So I get really excited when I hear from some blogger that is not going to happen, but the guy is
like this one man orchestra of inevitability. What I want to know is what happens to us if we
*aren't* the dominant economy; what happens to all the pension holders we're going to have; what
ensues when the capital flies. Then I would know what to do til then, , because it seems the only
people who will survive the next 20 years are the rich, in any country. The *super* rich*; not even
the self made millionaires.
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frankthecrank 2 minutes ago
The narrative you speak of was propaganda to convince Americas of their "inevitable
decline". And we said "**** you" when we elected Trump the same way we did Reagan.
john.b 25 minutes ago
Ex-CIA director Pompeo: 'We lie, we cheat, we steal'
With regards to our farmers that are growing food for the enemy....switch to hemp.
Trump will win unless the Dems can get rid of him. China is a paper tiger and always has been.
They are a totalitarian communist state and as such are a sworn enemy of the US and its historic
peoples. They must be taken down and that is not hyperbole--they never should have been
allowed to trade with the civilized world in the first place without first shutting down the Kims in
Norkland and dismantling their communist state. Russia would have been more in order in 1992
than China. ******* Clintons.
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Trump will win because only a man anointed by the Lord Jesus to be president could
withstand the constant onslaught of the demon rats and globalist traitors embedded in the
deep state. Notice you are getting downvotes..keep firing over the targets!
(Those companies and organizations which have contributed to and/or financed the creation of the
Chinese Communist Party's ultra-Orwellian system for command and control: Social Credit
System.)
Recommended Reading:
Recommended Viewing:
The Sun Behind the Clouds [Tibet's Struggle for Freedom] --- DVD
https://gizmodo.com/microsoft-quietly-pulls-its-database-of-100-000-faces-u-1835296212
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/meghara/the-police-state-of-the-future-is-already-here
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/us-money-funding-facial-recognition-
sensetime-megvii
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/21/business/china-xinjiang-uighur-dna-thermo-fisher.html?
emc=edit_th_190222&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=878883400222
http://news.mit.edu/2018/csail-launches-five-year-collaboration-with-iflytek-0615
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/19/962492-orwell-china-socialcredit-surveillance/
https://tech.slashdot.org/story/19/06/07/212204/for-two-hours-european-mobile-traffic-was-
rerouted-through-china
https://skyreporter.com/
https://theintercept.com/2019/06/07/china-bans-the-intercept-and-other-news-sites-in-
censorship-black-friday/
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/tiananmen-square-massacre-death-toll-secret-
cable-british-ambassador-1989-alan-donald-a8126461.html
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-09/much-more-trade-war 7/17
6/9/2019 Much More Than A Trade War | Zero Hedge
https://techcrunch.com/2019/06/04/china-blocks-cnns-website-and-reuters-stories-about-
tiananmen-square/?renderMode=ie11
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-42465516
https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/05/01/china-how-mass-surveillance-works-xinjiang
https://youtu.be/aE1kA0Jy0Xg
https://news.slashdot.org/story/19/05/30/189254/millions-of-dollars-from-us-university-
endowments-foundations-and-retirement-plans-have-helped-fund-two-billion-dollar-chinese-
facial-recognition-startups
https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB16/docs/doc12.pdf
https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB16/docs/doc13.pdf
https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB16/docs/doc14.pdf
https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB16/docs/doc16.pdf
https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB16/docs/doc17.pdf
https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB16/docs/doc18.pdf
https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB16/
https://en.m.wikisource.org/wiki/UK_cable_on_Tiananmen_Square_Massacre
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Winston Churchill 39 minutes ago
Almost certain at this point,my only surprise is that it hasn't started yet,
but judging by USN actions with that Russian Udaloy,that decision has been made.
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It's too bad they never did this, but now it no longer matters. The US has decided that China can't
be allowed to become a technological power any more than it is now. It's fine if all they do is make
T-shirts, and low-tech crap, but anything more advanced then a digital alarm clock can not be
allowed.
China would do best to forget about the US and hope that it can make due with it's domestic
market. With 1.3 billion people this seems like it should be possible.
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on their balance sheet as yuan receivables. Have been since early last
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Oh, yeah. .......we just "figured" that one out. It's not like we haven't used that scheme
on.......well, EVERYONE. Even our own citizens are slaves to a debt dollar system. It is all we got
left......well that and the A-bomb. But at the same time, it is our biggest weakness because if we
can't get the world to expand dollar debt, 5 hen we will have to do it ourselves. Hence the, "China
is not the largest holder of US bonds in the world, not even close. It’s the US. In fact, China has
already reduced part of its holdings in US bonds and yields fell."
We are the largest holder of our own debt.....and can print up what we need to buy what is
necessary to drive yields down. But at some point it will be like playing monopoly with
yourself......a zero sum game. Anytime you weaponize something (the dollar), countermeasures
will be invented to neutralize that weapon........only a matter of time.
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That's what you do when your ideas are intellectually bankrupt and inherently evil.
Downvote the truth. That's all the commies got.
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They go from bitching about "slave wages" at the factory, to being actual slaves under
collective farming programs, lol.
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F i H "Chi h
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-09/much-more-trade-war
d d fi i ih fi h " WRONG!!!! I 11/17
6/9/2019 Much More Than A Trade War | Zero Hedge
For instance, He says: "China has a trade deficit with most of its other partners"....WRONG!!!! It
is the U.S. who has the deficits with other countries, not China! China has a manufacturing
economy, not a consumer economy, so the trade balance is in its favor, as manufacturing
economies are in demand and have very little deficit.
And the author also reveals his biases about China by saying: "China’s Achilles heel has been
to try to be a reserve currency whilst maintaining capital controls and increasing state
intervention...." What do you think the U.S. Federal Reserve does, if it is not the very same thing?
Weren't they the ones who sets interest rates, control the rates of inflation, dictating the supply of
money, and doing economic bailouts to the banks in 2008 and 2009 with our money?
Secondly, he is just regurgitating the same old propaganda already put out about China, and really
doesn't provide anything new. Why can't ZH find better writers to publish than this?
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In 2018, China posted a trade surplus of USD 351.76 billion, the lowest since 2013,
as exports increased 9.9 percent, its strongest performance in seven years, while
imports were up 15.8 percent. The biggest trade surpluses were recorded with Hong
Kong, the US, the Netherlands, India, the UK, Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia.
China recorded trade deficits with Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, Germany, Brazil
and South Africa.
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/balance-of-trade
This is impossible. One cannot institute strong capital controls and have a reserve currency
at the same time. China knows this and has never tried to become the reserve currency.
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frankthecrank 31 minutes ago
depends on how many chinese junks (freighters) go to the bottom. As our subs are now
also stealth (cannot be detected with sonar), no one will ever know for sure.....
RealRussianBot99 1 hour ago
Go 龙!
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this battle is not to see who wins, but who loses less, and who drops the weapons
first...
But isn't it the case that the more you have, the more you have to lose?
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These same games go on, round and round, between both parties, with people twisting
everything, including nothing burgers and actual defeats into some kind of bizarre "winning"
********, to avoid legitimate criticism of their idol in the White House. Trumpets and
Obamabots are peas in a pod in more ways than they realize, but watch out, you'll get an eye
jab if o alk bet een them ith all the fingers pointing
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jab if you walk between them, with all the fingers pointing.
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no new ground?
USA good. USA too soft on China. USA will be great again when China surrenders to US slavery.
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He's just gotta get away from the FRN being the global reserve. That's ****'s done and
over with. No point in cryin' about it.
Then he needs to acknowledge the FACT that the corrupt **** bag US /globalists
politicians took the corporations lobbying $$$$$$$$ for the last thirty years, gave China
Most Favored Nation Trading Status...and proceeded to eviscerate / sell out the US middle
class.
Trumps "trade war" is his RESPONSE to this shitbaggery of the last 30 years.
Once he stews on this **** for a few hours, he might write a pretty decent article. As it is
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Once he stews on this for a few hours, he might write a pretty decent article. As it is
now it's better than most but not really up to speed.
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it's been a battle between good and evil since the eighth day, Maimonides
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They are non producers. They are lampreys. Same as on the bottom. I have absolutely
no problem with rich people. I am blessed to hang with many self made millionaires who
are all about designing / manufacturing unique products sold all over the world. They
produce wealth and a product, not by skimming.
We're so balls deep in debt la la land now that having a conversation about wealth
creation via production feels a lot like making balloon animals while wearing a clown
suit.
Don't chase that race to the bottom. That is what was sold to the Us
Consooooooooooooooooooooooooooomer (**** I hate that name, I am not a
consumer) for the last thirty year. They bought the ****, they own it. **** em, let
'em choke on the icrapple and other swarf.
Ha.
I am not balls deep in debt. My total life debt so far is $800. USA incorporated...
THEY have debt. That is not my debt.
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Politicians here in the US are desperate for me to believe it is all China's fault. Not the lying,
stealing politicians and MBAs that have stolen my future but China.
Even if China has stolen America's wealth, who let them? Who helped and got rich? That's
right, US politicians and MBAs.
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