California

Housing Market
Update
Monthly Sales and
Price Statistics
May 2019
 Sales rose above 400k for the
first time in 10 months
700,000
California, May 2019 Sales: 406,960 Units, -6.0% YTD, -0.6% YTY

600,000
May-18: May-19:
409,270 406,960
500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
2
 California home sales had the smallest decline
in 13 months
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
3
 Bay Area sales increased for the
first time since July 2018
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
30%

20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0% 0.8%

-10%

-20%

-30%
Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-19
Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Sep-10

May-14
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
*Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
4
 So. California sales still down
but began to trend Up
YoY % chg. So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%

30%

20%

10%
-0.9%
0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

*Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
5
 Central Valley sales dipped slightly
more than the Bay Area and So CA
YoY % chg. Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
30%

20%

10%

0%
-2.7%

-10%

-20%

-30%

*Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
6
 Sales Up in Mid-Priced Ranges

May 2019 (YTY% Chg.) Share by Price Segment

8% 0% 10% 20% 30%
5.2%
6% 3.8%
4% $0 - $299k 12.5%
1.8% 2.0%
2%
$300 - $399k 15.4%
0%
-2% -0.3%
$400 - $499k 14.0%
-4%
-6% -4.2%
$500 - $749k 24.5%
-8%
-10% $750 - $999k 11.4%
-12% $1,000 -
-14% -13.0% 13.6%
$1,999k

$2,000k+ 4.5%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
7
California median price set a
new high again in May 2019
California, May 2019: $611,190, +1.4% MTM, +1.7% YTY May-18: May-19:
$600,860 $611,190
P: May-07
$700,000 $594,530

$600,000

$500,000 T: Feb-09
$245,230
$400,000 -59% from
peak
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
8
 Home prices inched up but
the pace of growth slowed in May
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%

30%

20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
9
 Condo/Townhome price bounced back
after dipping 3 Months in a row
$600,000

$500,000

$400,000
Median Price

May-18: May-19:
$465,000 $470,000
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0
Dec-07
Jan-05

Nov-05

Feb-07

Jan-10

Nov-10

Feb-12

Jan-15

Nov-15

Feb-17
Sep-06

Sep-11

Sep-16
Jul-07

Jul-12
Dec-12
Jun-05

May-08
Oct-08

Jun-10

Oct-13

Jul-17
Dec-17
Jun-15
Apr-06

Mar-09

May-13
Aug-09

Apr-11

Mar-14

May-18
Oct-18
Aug-14

Apr-16

Mar-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
10
 CA Median Price (Existing SFH)

Month-to-Month % Chg
15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
11
 Price/Square Foot Reached the
Highest Level since Late 2007
$400 May 2019: $292, Up 0.7% MTM, Up 2.1% YTY
$350 May-18: May-19:
$286 $292
$300
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
12
 Sales Price-to-List Price highest in last 10 months as the
market moved into the peak of the season
May-18:
May 2019: 99.3%, +0.4% MTM, -0.7% YTY 100.0%
May-19:
99.3%
100%

98%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

96%

94%

92%

90%

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
13
 Time on Market at Lowest Level
in 10 Months, but Still Up YTY
California, May 2019: 18.0 Days
80

70

60
DAYS ON MARKET

50

40

30

20

10

SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
14
 Inventory Index Up Due Primarily
to Increase in Active Listings
18.0

16.0
May 2018: 3.0 Months; May 2019: 3.2 Months
14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would

take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining
inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
“Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the
sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
15
Active Listings Had Smallest
Growth since Apr 2018
Year-over-Year % Chg
40%

30%

20%

10% 7.4%

0%

-10%

-20%

SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
16
Supply improved in all but
the lowest price segment
May 2019
Active Listing

20%
15.9% 16.0%
12.1% 11.0%
10% 7.4%

1.1%
0%

-10% -6.9%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
17
 Regional Inventory Levels
Inched Up from Last Year
9.0
8.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.7
2.3
2.0
1.0
0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take
to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining
inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
“Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum
by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
18
Active Listings Increased in
All Regions
May-18 May-19
35,000

30,000 28,998
27,680

25,000
Active Listings

20,000

15,000

10,284 10,407
10,000 8,024
6,148
5,000
2,618 2,721

0
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
19
 Active Listings Increased in
All Regions May 2019
Sales Active Listings
40%

30.5%
30%
Year-to-Year % Chg

20%

10%
4.8% 3.9%
0.8% 1.2%
0%
-0.9%
-2.7%
-4.2%
-10%
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
20
Inventory Index Highest in Millions

California Unsold Inventory Index by Segment

9 8.4
8 7.5
7
6
5 4.4
3.9 4.1 3.9
4 3.6 3.4
3.3
2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2
3
2
1
0
Under $300- $500- $750K-$1M $1-$1.25M $1.25- $1.5-$2M $2-$3M $3M + Total
$300K $500K $750K $1.5M
May-18 May-19

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
21
 Active Listings by Month

California Active Listings by Month

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

2018 2019

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
22
 Mortgage payment declined for three straight
months as rates hit the lowest level in 16 months
30 Yr. FRM California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
6%
20%
5% 4.59% 15%
4.07%
4% 10%

YTY% Chg.
3% 5%

0%
2%
-5%
1%
-10%

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16

Jul-17
Oct-17

Jul-18
Oct-18
Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
0%
Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-15

Sep-18
Sep-16

Sep-17
May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19 Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth

SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
23
 Mortgage payment declined for three straight
months as rates hit the lowest level in 16 months
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
20%

15%

10%
YTY% Chg.

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth

SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
24
 YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales

0%
2%
4%

-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%

-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
the first time in 3 months

Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Pending sales growth dipped for

Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales

Apr-19
May-19
25
page
 Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile

California Year-over-Year Price Growth by Quintile (May 2019)

7%
6.3%
6%
5%
4% 3.5%
3%
2%
1.0%
1%
0.1%
0%
-1% -0.7% -0.5%
-2% -1.4% -1.4%
-1.7%
-3%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
26
 Median Time on Market by Percentile

California Median Time on Market by Quintile

20
18 18
18 17 17 17 17
16
16 15 15
14 14 14 14 14 14 14
14 13 13 13
12
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
May-18 May-19

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
27
 Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile

California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile

102.0%

101.5%

101.0%

100.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
100.0%

99.5%
99.0%
99.0%

98.5%

98.0%

97.5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
May-18 May-19

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
28
 List Price growth vs. Sales

California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth

40%

30%
YTY% Chg. in Price

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-19
Jan-12

Jan-15

Jan-18
Jul-12
Oct-12

Jul-13
Oct-13

Jul-14
Oct-14

Jul-15
Oct-15

Jul-16
Oct-16

Jul-17
Oct-17

Jul-18
Oct-18
Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
Listing Price Sales Price

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
29
 Median Sales vs. List Price
Growth $1M+ Properties
California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth
15%

10%
YTY% Chg. in Price

5%

0%

-5%

-10%
Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jan-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18
Sep-09

May-10
May-09

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Listing Price Sales Price

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
30
 Reduced-Price Listings
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 34.7%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.0%
California Reduced-Price Listings
50% 10%
45% 9%
40% 8%
34.7%
35% 7%
30% 6%
25% 5%
20% 4%
15% 4.0% 3%
10% 2%
5% 1%
0% 0%

10/1/2016
4/1/2016

4/1/2017
10/1/2010

10/1/2011

10/1/2012

10/1/2013

10/1/2014

10/1/2015

10/1/2017

10/1/2018
1/1/2010
4/1/2010
7/1/2010

1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011

1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012

1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013

1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014

1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015

1/1/2016

7/1/2016

1/1/2017

7/1/2017

1/1/2018
4/1/2018
7/1/2018

1/1/2019
4/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction

SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
31
 Growth in Reduced-Price Listings
Growth in Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: +2.4%;
Growth in Median Reduction Amount: -0.1%

8% Growth in Reduced-Price Listings 0.00%

6% -0.05%

4% -0.10%

2% -0.15%

0% -0.20%

-2% -0.25%

-4% -0.30%

Share Reduced Median Reduction

SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
32
Sales by Region
May 2019 Home Sales Growth
May 2019 Home Sales by Region
Other
by Region
Counties, 7% 2.0%
Central
Coast, 4% 1.0% 0.8%

Central 0.0%
Valley, 22%
-1.0%
-0.9% -0.9%
-2.0%

S.F. Bay -3.0% -2.7%

Southern Area, 20%
-4.0%
California,
-4.2%
47% -5.0%
Central S.F. Bay Southern Central Other
Valley Area California Coast Counties
Growth

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
33
 California Market Velocity
and Price Growth
California Market Velocity and Price Growth
Price Growth Market Velocity (12 month trailing average) Market Velocity
150.0% 50.0%

Existing SFR Median Price Growth

40.0%
100.0%
30.0%
20.0%
Market Velocity

50.0%
10.0%
0.0% 0.0%
-10.0%
-50.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-100.0%
-40.0%
-150.0% -50.0%
Dec-09
Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Jun-11

Jun-12
Mar-09

Mar-10

Dec-10
Mar-11

Dec-11
Mar-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Mar-14
Mar-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15
Mar-15

Dec-15

Jun-16
Mar-16

Dec-16

Jun-17
Mar-17

Dec-17
Mar-18

Dec-18
Mar-19
SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
34
Thank You