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What’s cooking Today’s market forecast 4 November 2010
Cosco Corp (COS SP, $1.86, BUY, TP $2.43) – Cosco
OVERCAST
posted 3Q10 net earnings growth of 147% to $55.1m, Last close: 3,224.97 (+19.7)
ahead of our and market expectations. Excluding Forecast high: 3,235
forex gains and one‐off compensation, core earnings Forecast low: 3,205
were flat sequentially on comparable turnover.
STI TECHNICALS
However, the underlying numbers paint a much
The market will likely face resistance at 3,235 on
better picture for Cosco. We therefore raise our the upside. For the time being, it is supported at
forecasts, as well as target price from $2.10 to $2.43. 3,205 on the downside. We hesitate to call this a
rohan@kimeng.com
strong support. Now that the US$600b QE2 has
been announced, the negatively‐diverging short‐
Hot stock term RSI could start to manifest more strongly,
Sinotel Technologies (STEL SP, $0.345, NOT RATED) – especially ahead of the long weekend.
Telecom solutions provider Sinotel has historically
been criticised for its project‐based business that, by Overnight market snapshots
necessity, moves at a snail’s pace where cash Dow Jones 11,215.13 +26.4
collection is concerned. It is poised to move into two Nasdaq 2,540.27 +6.8
new areas that promise a higher level of recurring FTSE 100 5,748.97 ‐8.5
CAC 40 3,842.94 ‐22.8
income with faster cash turns. But first it will have to
DAX Index 6,617.80 ‐36.5
surmount the problem of EPS dilution from the funds
it has raised to venture into these two new areas.
Platinum privileges…
gyap@kimeng.com Overseas Union Enterprise (19 Nov 2010): OUE is fast
attracting investor interest, not least because of its commercial
Top news in bite‐sized pieces property portfolio which is worth around $3.5b. Would its
future growth come from more office, retail, hospitality or
OVERNIGHT… residential investments? Find out from CEO Thio Ghim Hock as
Federal Reserve to buy US$600b government he shares his plans on moulding OUE into a property bigwig. 1‐
bonds in a move to stimulate the US economy. 2pm. 39F Boardroom, Suntec Tower Two. Register with Daniel
Comment: This US$600b quantitative easing (QE2), Chee of Marketing. Clients, register through your TRs.
which increases the money supply, will continue to Valuetronics (15 Nov 2010): Valuetronics is an undervalued
put pressure on the US dollar. Companies deriving EMS provider with a green technology angle producing LED
light bulbs for Phillips. Come meet CEO Ricky Tse and CFO Tony
their revenues from the US may face forex risks. Kwong for more insights on how the group intends to tap this
fount of growth as well as its new brand licensing business. 1‐
LOCAL… 2pm. 39F Boardroom, Suntec Tower Two. Register with Daniel
Changi Airport Group adds new fees. The move Chee of Marketing. Clients, register through your TRs.
could boost the group’s revenue by $200m over the Fuxing China (11 Nov 2010): SGX‐listed Fuxing, one of the
largest vertically‐integrated zipper manufacturers in China, will
coming year. Comment: The planned increase in release its 3Q10 results on 9 November. Come meet CFO Koh
charges will have minimal impact on SIA. Passenger Choon Kong and hear him delve deeper into the group’s
service fee hikes are a pass‐through item, while performance and its future development strategy. 1‐2pm. 39F
higher landing charges will impact SIA by $25‐35m, Boardroom, Suntec Tower Two. Register with Daniel Chee of
Marketing. Clients, register through your TRs.
which is not significant given its $13b cost base.
Co. Reg No: 198700034E SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
MICA (P) : 090/11/2009
WHAT’S COOKING Cosco Corp
Analyst: Rohan SUPPIAH 65‐64321455 rohan@kimeng.com
Summary Financials
Year End Dec 31 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F
Sales (S$m) 3476.0 2899.0 3722.6 4629.9 4613.7
Pre‐tax (S$m) 451.4 178.6 372.0 441.4 494.0
Net profit (S$m) 302.6 110.1 219.0 267.4 296.1
EPS (S cts) 13.5 4.9 9.8 11.9 13.4
EPS growth (%) ‐10.3 ‐63.6 99.0 22.1 12.0
PER (x) 14.4 39.5 19.8 16.2 14.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.9 11.6 7.6 8.2 7.5
Yield (%)
3.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
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HOT STOCK Sinotel Technologies
Analyst: Gregory YAP 65‐64321450 gyap@kimeng.com
Up‐to‐date in 60 seconds may also work with a partner to wire up the
Sino‐Singapore Tianjin Eco‐City.
Background: Sinotel is a supplier of high‐margin
proprietary hardware and software solutions Extending value‐add to telco customers. In
that enhance cellular coverage by boosting weak addition, Sinotel recently won a RMB25m pa
signals. It also purchases and installs equipment contract to provide monitoring and diagnostic
for its telco customers under a centralised services for 35,000 of China Telecom’s base
procurement system and is the only supplier in stations in eight provinces and cities. This is also
China for the Emergency Mobile Communication a business with a high recurring income and
System (EMCS). The EMCS is a vehicle‐mounted steady cash flow. Initial contributions from the
booster system that can be deployed to restore first batch of base stations should start in 4Q11.
mobile coverage in disaster areas. Rights issue will dilute EPS growth next year.
Recent developments: Sinotel recently raised Sinotel raised funds twice in FY10 – a share
$23.4m via a 1‐for‐4 rights issue at $0.28 per placement in February (9% dilution) and a rights
share. The proceeds will be used to fund two issue in October (25% dilution). Consequently,
new businesses that promise to build more the company will have to grow FY11 earnings by
recurring income and improve its cash flow. at least 25% to offset the effects of the dilution.
Our view Key ratios…
Price‐to‐earnings: 3.6x
Seeking more recurring income. Sinotel Price‐to‐NTA: 0.8x
intends to build businesses with recurring Net cash/(debt) per share (fen): 15.1
income and faster cash turns to complement its Net cash as % of market cap: 9%
existing project‐based long cash‐cycle model. It Source: Bloomberg, based on historical data
will use $18m of the rights proceeds to fund a Everything else…
new “last‐mile” revenue‐sharing business with Share price (S$) 0.34
China Telecom, and the rest for a base station Issued shares (m) 421.8
monitoring and diagnostic service for telcos. Market cap (S$m) 114.2
Free float (%) 73.1%
Transforming into a mini‐telco. Sinotel has a Recent fundraising 14 Sep 09: 28m new shares at
once‐in‐a‐lifetime opportunity to expand into activities $0.40 (rights‐adjusted)
providing telecom services to end‐users using 1 Feb 10: 28m new shares at
China Telecom’s pay TV, fixed line and Internet $0.46 (rights‐adjusted)
Oct 2010: 1‐for‐4 rights issue
services and its own fibre optic infrastructure. In (84.3m new shares) at $0.28
exchange for installing the infrastructure, the Financial YE 31 December
telco will split subscription fee 60/40 with Major shareholder Ford Field / JIA Yue Ting (26.9%)
Sinotel. It has started to deploy fibre optic lines YTD change ‐45%
to residences and commercial buildings in Shanxi 52‐wk price range S$0.29‐0.63
Source: Company
Province and revenue should start next year. It
Summary Financials
Year End Dec 31 2007 2008 2009 1H09 1H10
Sales (RMB m) 266.5 362.1 533.2 238.7 286.9
Pre‐tax (RMB m) 85.4 107.3 148.1 70.8 77.8
Net profit (RMB m) 85.4 106.7 139.0 70.4 71.2
EPS (fen) 30.5 38.3 48.2 25.1 21.4
EPS growth (%) 52.2% 25.6% 25.8% 15.7% ‐14.9%
PER (x) 5.4 5.1 3.3 na na
EV/EBITDA (x) ‐ ‐ ‐ na na
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Sunny Side Up 4 November 2010
Results Calendar
MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY
01‐Nov‐10 02‐Nov‐10 03‐Nov‐10 04‐Nov‐10 05‐Nov‐10
Company Period Company Period Company Period Company Period Company Period
OCBC 3Q El ec & El tek 3Q Cos co Corp 3Q DBS Group 3Q DEEPAVALI
Si no 3Q Hi ‐P 3Q Ma cqua ri e 3Q Ha w Pa r Corp 3Q
Gra ndnes s Interna ti ona l Interna ti ona l
Food Indus try Infra s tructure
Fund
SATS 2Q HTL 3Q
Interna ti ona l
SIA 2Q Sembcorp 3Q
Engi neeri ng Ma ri ne
Ti ger Ai rwa ys 2Q
08‐Nov‐10 09‐Nov‐10 10‐Nov‐10 11‐Nov‐10 12‐Nov‐10
Company Period Company Period Company Period Company Period Company Period
Arms trong 3Q Bi os ens ors 1H Al l green 3Q CSE Gl oba l 3Q Brea dTa l k 3Q
Indus tri a l Interna ti ona l Properti es Group
Cha ngti a n 3Q DMX 3Q ASL Ma ri ne 1Q Frencken 3Q Chi na Es s ence 2Q
Pl a s ti c & Technol ogi es Group
Chemi ca l
Fortune REIT 3Q El l i ps i z 1Q Chi na Yucha i 3Q Gol den Agri ‐ 3Q ComfortDel gro 3Q
Interna ti ona l Res ources
IFS Ca pi ta l 3Q Fuxi ng Chi na 3Q Ci ty 3Q Ho Bee 3Q Hong Leong 3Q
Group Devel opments Inves tment As i a
LMA 3Q Hi a p Hoe 3Q Gl oba l Yel l ow 2Q Ki a n Ann 1Q Hotel Roya l 3Q
Interna ti ona l Pa ges Engi neeri ng
Sembcorp 3Q Li Heng 3Q Hong Leong 3Q Kreuz Hol di ngs 3Q Mun Si ong 3Q
Indus tri es Chemi ca l Fi bre Fi na nce Engi neeri ng
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Sunny Side Up 4 November 2010
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Sunny Side Up 4 November 2010
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