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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 1538 75

Modeling Fault Among Bicyclists and


Drivers Involved in Collisions in Hawaii,
1986–1991
KARL KIM AND LEI LI

Subsequent to a review of trends in collisions between bicyclists and of more effective strategies for bicycle safety. A description of
motorists in Hawaii during the period 1986 to 1991, characteristics of bicycle–motor-vehicle collisions in the state is presented, and a sta-
bicyclists and drivers involved in crashes are compared. On the basis of tistical model is developed for explaining fault in collisions. By
police-reported crash data it can be concluded that bicyclists tend to be focusing on the prevention of fault among both bicyclists and
young, male, and, not surprisingly, more likely to be seriously injured
motorists, a contribution can perhaps be made to the safety of
than motorists in bicycle–motor-vehicle collisions. Bicyclists are much
less likely to be attributed with inattention than motorists, and slightly Hawaii’s environment.
less likely to be attributed with misjudgment or alcohol or drug use than
motorists. Bicyclists, however, are much more likely than motorists to
disregard traffic controls or go the wrong way on a street just before RESEARCH QUESTIONS
becoming involved in a collision. Motorists are more likely than bicy-
clists to fail to yield, to engage in improper overtaking, or to follow too The research described was motivated by a number of underlying
closely before becoming involved in a collision. The largest proportion questions. Are bicycle collisions increasing or decreasing in
of bicycle collisions occurs during the period 3:30 to 6:30 p.m. Other
Hawaii? What are the characteristics of bicyclists and motorists
temporal and locational features of bicycle collisions are described.
Among the most significant findings presented is that motorists in Hawaii involved in collisions? What human and other factors are involved?
are much more likely to be classified at fault than bicyclists. Whereas Are there differences between the bicyclists and motorists involved
motorists are at fault in approximately 83.5 percent of incidents, bicy- in collisions? Who is at fault, most of the time, in collisions between
clists are at fault in only 16.5 percent of incidents. A logistic model is bicyclists and motorists? Is it possible to model the likelihood of
developed and used to explain the likelihood of motorists being at fault fault among those involved in bicycle collisions? When are bicy-
in collisions with bicyclists. Covariates that increase the likelihood of clists most likely to be at fault? When are motorists at fault?
motorist fault include motorist age (squared), bicyclist age, bicyclist hel- Approaching the problem of bicycle collisions by asking who is at
met use, and motorist turning actions. Variables that decrease the likeli-
hood of motorist fault include motorist age, bicyclist age (squared), bicy- fault is a novel feature of the analysis. Setting aside for the moment
clist alcohol use, bicyclists making turning actions, and rural locations. the normative aspects of fault, if it were possible to understand
the characteristics of motorists and bicyclists, as well as the
circumstances in bicycle–motor-vehicle collisions that contribute
Despite the possibly ideal environment Hawaii presents for bicy- to the determination of fault, then perhaps populations, crash
cling, the bicycle is losing ground to automobiles and other motor- circumstances, or locations could be targeted for efforts to improve
ized forms of transportation in the state. Although there has been bicycle safety. Answers to questions of fault may be useful in the
growth in recreational, off-road cycling, the use of bicycles for com- design of bicycle safety policies and programs.
muting and short-distance trips in Hawaii has declined steadily. The
moped has found greater acceptance than the bicycle as a low-cost
alternative to the automobile (1). With its year-round temperate DATA AND METHODS
climate, concentrated pattern of development, and its population’s
health-conscious attitudes and lifestyles, Hawaii could be a bicy- Data came from the Department of Transportation, State of Hawaii
clist’s paradise, but it is not. One of the reasons the bicycle has not (HDOT). In Hawaii crash reports are required for all collisions that
gained greater prominence in Hawaii is the risk associated with involve an injury or $300 property damage (the amount was raised
bicycling (2). Bicycling in Hawaii is perceived by many to be to $1,000 in 1990). The data are collected by police officers at the
dangerous. Moreover, the described study found that in the major- crash scenes. HDOT has responsibility for inputting and managing
ity of police-reported collisions between bicycles and motor crash data. As in other states (3), there are concerns in Hawaii about
vehicles more often than not the driver of the motor vehicle is at the quality of police-collected crash data. There are, however,
fault. Motorists are at fault approximately 83.5 percent of the time, reasons that the quality of police crash reports in Hawaii may be
whereas bicyclists are at fault 16.5 percent of the time. Many bicy- superior to that in other states. Crash reporting is standardized in
clists may feel that they are fighting a losing battle, and that it is Hawaii through a common form used across the state. There are only
better to stay off the roads and streets of Hawaii. The research four counties and four police departments in the entire state. All
described intended to seek a better understanding of bicycle colli- police officers receive the same training. Approximately three-
sions in Hawaii so that an initial step could be taken in the design quarters of the population resides on the island of Oahu, which is
under the jurisdiction of the City and County of Honolulu. For
University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Urban and Regional serious collisions the Honolulu Police Department uses trained
Planning, Porteus Hall 107, 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822. accident investigators to ensure high-quality reporting. In recent
76 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 1538

years Hawaii has been the recipient of several large federal traffic- By using a single dependent variable, loge {Pr(F)/[1 2 Pr(F)]},
safety research grants, including the Crash Outcome Data Evalua- fault is expressed as the odds of the motorist’s being at fault over the
tion System (CODES) cooperative agreements with the National odds of the motorist’s not being at fault (or the odds of the bicyclist’s
Highway Safety Traffic Administration. The CODES agreements being at fault). In this way the process being modeled is the deter-
involve the development of traffic safety data bases and support of mination of fault, which is dependent upon characteristics of both
various traffic safety research projects. The CODES project pro- bicyclists and motorists and the environments in which their colli-
vided an opportunity to acquire as well as to clean and edit the data sions occur. The modeling process involves fitting various terms
used in this analysis. believed to be correlated with fault in bicycle collisions. A combi-
The data were transferred from HDOT on 9-track tapes, from nation of backward elimination and forward inclusion methods were
which they were converted into an SAS data base for analysis on a used to produce the best-fitting model. Nonsignificant terms were
dedicated Sun Sparc 10 workstation housed at the Department of dropped from the model. A likelihood ratio, c2, is used to assess the
Urban and Regional Planning, University of Hawaii. Three statis- model fit. The likelihood ratio tests the null hypothesis that there are
tical techniques are used. First, the pattern of monthly bicycle no effects of the covariates included in the model. It is calculated by
collisions is modeled using a standard Poisson distribution. This subtracting the log-likelihood values of the full model from the log-
makes it possible to determine whether bicycle collisions are
likelihood values of the model containing only the intercept. Mod-
increasing, decreasing, or staying approximately the same. Second,
els are compared against each other to determine which produces the
various descriptive and distributional statistics on bicycle collisions
best fit as well as the information most useful for policy purposes.
during the period 1986 to 1991 are presented. Standard statistical
The described study extends earlier work on loglinear and logistic
tests (z-tests) are employed to compare bicyclists with motorists and
modeling in traffic safety (4,5). More detailed explanation of logis-
bicycle collisions with motor-vehicle collisions.
tic modeling can be found in standard methods texts such as Jobson
A logistic regression equation explaining fault among motor-
(6 ), Agresti (7 ), and Feinberg (8).
vehicle drivers involved in collisions with bicyclists as a function of
various personal characteristics (of motorists and bicyclists) and
crash and environmental factors is estimated. Fault is determined
by investigating officers and reported on crash report forms. The FINDINGS
logistic model explains fault (F) among motorists as a function of
various covariates such as age (A), age squared, alcohol and drug During the period 1986 to 1991 the annual number of police-
use (AD), helmet use among bicyclists (H), rural location (R), reported bicycle collisions reached a low in 1989 and increased in
turning actions (T), and wet roadway surfaces (W) using the 1990 and 1991. The actual number of monthly collisions, the
following form: monthly predicted number of collisions (using a standard Poisson
model), and the annual average is plotted in Figure 1. The Poisson
loge{Pr(F) ⁄[1 ] Pr(F)]} 5 a0 1 a1 A 1 a2 A2 1 a3 AD 1 a4 H model assumes that events (such as bicycle collisions) occur as dis-
1 a5R1 a6 T 1 A7W (1) crete counts, independently in time (or space), with mean equal to

FIGURE 1 Number of bicycle–motor-vehicle collisions in Hawaii, 1986 –1991.


Kim and Li 77

variance. It is a useful tool, therefore, with which to examine the TABLE 2 Human and Other Factors Associated with
time distribution of events such as bicycle collisions. When the Bicycle–Motor-Vehicle Collisions in Hawaii, 1986 –1991
actual and predicted number of collisions are compared the fit is
found to be reasonable for most months, suggesting that this esti-
mation procedure could be used for estimating future levels of bicy-
cle collisions or evaluating the effectiveness of various bicycle
safety programs. In the monthly trend data peaks occur at the sum-
mer months (June or July) for most years, but also at the spring or
winter months for some years. In 1990 the property damage thresh-
old for crash reporting was raised from $300 to $1,000. Although
this might have reduced the total number of reported collisions, the
effect on bicycle collisions appears to have been minimal because
of the general declining trend in such collisions that had been estab-
lished even before the change in the crash reporting threshold. The
existing trend data indicates that Hawaii can expect 30 to 50 injury-
producing collisions between bicyclists and motorists per month.
Table 1 shows some of the interesting differences between bicy-
clists and motorists involved in collisions. There are more younger
bicyclists involved in collisions: more than one-third 14 or younger.
Whereas less than 9 percent of bicyclists involved in collisions are
over 40 years of age, more than 35 percent of motorists are 40 or
older. There is also a disparity in gender. More than 78 percent of
bicyclists involved in collisions are male. The proportion of male
motorists involved in collisions with bicyclists is just over 62 per-
cent. Not surprisingly, bicyclists are much more likely to be injured
in a collision than drivers of motor vehicles. Collisions for which Table 2 also shows results for other factors associated with
injury severity was indicated on the police form left less than 3 per- bicycle–motor vehicle collisions. Among bicyclists, failure to yield,
cent of bicyclists uninjured, compared with almost 99 percent of going the wrong way, and other unspecified bicycle violations are
motor-vehicle drivers. During the study period there were 139 fatal- the major factors associated with collisions. Among motorists, fail-
ities and incapacitating injuries and 1,370 minor injuries to bicy- ure to yield and other unspecified actions are the most common con-
clists. Motorists were injured 16 times, and the vast majority of tributing factors cited by police crash investigators. Motorists are
those injuries (15) were classified as minor. more likely than bicyclists to have proceeded with excessive speed,
Table 2 summarizes the differences between bicyclists and overtaken improperly, or followed too closely before a collision.
drivers of motor vehicles by human and other factors. According to Bicyclists are more likely than motorists to have disregarded con-
police reports motorists involved in collisions with bicyclists are trols, crossed centerlines, gone the wrong way, and made improper
more likely to be inattentive than bicyclists. Whereas just under 30 turns before a collision. Many of the differences between bicyclists
percent of bicyclists were inattentive, 40 percent of motorists were and motorists are small and not statistically significant, however.
inattentive. Although larger proportions of motorists were found by There are three major statistically significant differences: bicyclists
police to have exhibited misjudgment, been fatigued, and been are more likely than motorists to disregard controls; motorists are
under the influence of alcohol or drugs in collisions, the differences more likely than bicyclists to fail to yield; and bicyclists are more
between bicyclists and motorists in these human-factor categories likely than motorists to go the wrong way on streets.
are small and not statistically significant. The incidence of alcohol Table 2 also shows that in 83.5 percent of bicycle–motor-vehicle
and drugs is low for both bicyclists (.779 percent) and motorists collisions in Hawaii during the 6-year study period, drivers were
(1.071 percent). classified at fault. Bicyclists were found to be at fault in 16.5 per-
cent of the collisions. This high rate of fault among motorists needs
TABLE 1 Characteristics of Bicyclists and Motorists Involved in
to be explored more systematically; it is discussed further in the next
Bicycle–Motor-Vehicle Collisions in Hawaii, 1986 –1991 section.
In addition to the examination of motorist and bicyclist charac-
teristics made in the study, environmental factors of bicycle colli-
sions were compared with those of motor-vehicle collisions. Table
3 shows a comparison of collisions between bicycles and motor
vehicles and collisions between motor vehicles for the factors time,
day of week, jurisdiction location (urban versus rural), intersection
location, weather, and road surfaces (dry or wet). Distributional sta-
tistics and z-tests are presented. Results for time of day indicate that
a larger proportion of bicycle than motor-vehicle collisions occurs
during the afternoon peak time, 3:30 to 6:30 p.m. Collisions involv-
ing only motor vehicles are most likely to occur during the morning
period, 9:00 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. Collisions between bicycles and
motor vehicles tend to occur during daylight hours. The proportion
of bicycle collisions both for morning and evening periods is smaller
78 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 1538

TABLE 3 Environments Surrounding Bicycle–Motor-Vehicle clist helmet use, and driver turning actions. The odds ratios give a
Collisions in Hawaii, 1986–1991 convenient measure of the strength of the relationship between fault
and each of the various covariates. An odds ratio greater than 1 sig-
nifies a strong effect—the larger the value, the stronger the positive
effect. Odds ratios less than 1 indicate a negative relationship. Odds
ratios close to 1 suggest weak effects. The odds ratio of 2.4 for
bicycle-helmet use means that in a collision the motorist is 2.4 times
more likely to be at fault when the bicyclist is helmeted than when
the bicyclist is not helmeted. Moreover, motorists are 2.8 times more
likely to be at fault when they are turning.
The age effects require further explanation. Although fault is gen-
erally negatively related to motorist age (as age increases, the odds
of being classified at fault decline), and positively related to bicy-
clist age, the relationship is not so simple. Other studies have
pointed out that there is a U-shaped relationship between bicyclist
age and accident rates—that the number of accidents per billion km
are highest for the youngest and oldest age groups (9). For this rea-
son, an age-squared term was introduced into the logistic regression
equation to better capture the U-shaped distribution associated with
collision involvement and age. The use of the age-squared term is a
standard practice in epidemiological studies to account for the non-
linearity of the effect of age.
When the log-odds (logit) of being classified at fault are graphed
against age for both bicyclists and motorists involved in collisions
with bicyclists, two intersecting U-shaped distributions are pro-
duced as shown in Figure 2. Several points are noteworthy. When
bicyclists at fault are compared with motorists at fault, it becomes
clear that bicyclists are younger by far when they start riding than
motorists are when they start driving. For most age groups, however,
motorists are more likely to be at fault, with the exception of
younger cyclists and older cyclists (those over age 40); the two
curves intersect at age 40. It should also be noted that the fault curve
than the proportion of collisions involving only motor vehicles for for bicyclists is much steeper than the curve for motorists, suggest-
the same periods. ing that bicyclists are subject to more pronounced and stronger age
Both bicycle collisions and motor-vehicle-only collisions occur effects. According to these curves, however, the bicyclists least
least frequently on Sundays. Tuesday is the worst day for bicycle col- likely to be at fault in a collision are between the ages of 30 and 35,
lisions, whereas Friday is the worst day for motor-vehicle collisions. whereas the safest motorists are somewhere between the ages of 40
A larger proportion of bicycle than motor-vehicle collisions occurs and 50. Those motorists most likely to hit bicyclists and be classi-
on county roads 76.5 and 53.2 percent, respectively). Only 23.5 per- fied at fault are the groups under 20 years old and those 70 years old.
cent of bicycle collisions occur on state roads, which include most
major highways and arterials, compared to 46.8 percent of motor
vehicle collisions. A higher proportion of motor-vehicle collisions DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
(72.4 percent of all collisions) occurs in urban areas compared with
bicycle collisions (62.2 percent of which occur in urban areas). Police-collected crash data used in the study may not include all the
Bicycle collisions are generally more likely to occur at intersections bicycle collisions in Hawaii. Many minor collisions may not even be
(48.4 percent) than are motor-vehicle collisions (41.7 percent). reported. The findings and results of the study are best interpreted as
A larger proportion of bicycle collisions occurs on clear days (81.8
percent) compared with motor-vehicle collisions (71.1 percent).
Whereas 92 percent of bicycle collisions occur on dry surfaces, 81.5 TABLE 4 Logistical Regression Analysis of the Likelihood of
percent of motor-vehicle collisions occur on dry pavement surfaces. Drivers Being at Fault
Using the differences between the characteristics of bicyclists and
motorists involved in collisions, a model to explain fault was con-
structed. Many different models were run and tested. Table 4 shows
the results of the best fitting model; nonsignificant terms were
dropped from the equation. Parameter estimates, standard errors, and
odds ratios for motorists at fault in collisions in Hawaii over the six-
year study period are shown. A likelihood ratio, c2, is provided to
assess the overall model fit. For motorists involved in collisions with
bicyclists, fault is negatively related to driver age, bicyclist age, bicy-
clist alcohol use, bicyclist turning action, and rural location. Motorist
fault is positively related to driver-age squared, bicyclist age, bicy-
Kim and Li 79

FIGURE 2 Log-odds ratio of being at fault by age.

pertaining to serious and injury-producing collisions to which a sistency between police-attributed fault and vehicle maneuvers and
police officer has responded and for which one has completed actions before collisions. Moreover, interviews of police officers in
a crash report form. Moreover, the analysis uses the condition that a Hawaii indicated that they take their responsibility of determining
collision has occurred. The unconditional odds or risks of a bicycle and recording fault quite seriously. It has been suggested that the
collision occurring are not evaluated. To make such an evaluation a whole purpose of the crash report form is to ascertain who is at fault,
measure of bicyclist exposure to collision risk factors, such as dis- and that although individual fields such as driver’s license number,
tance traveled or time spent riding on public roads, would be needed. birth date, vehicle identification number, and so forth may be
The study may also be affected by the quality of police-collected sources of error, the determination of fault is bound to be more accu-
data. As has been mentioned, there are some reasons pertaining to rate. Finally, the results of both the descriptive analyses as well as
geography, centralization of government, and standardization of the modeling of fault generally are not unreasonable—that is, the
crash reporting that Hawaii may have better collision data than other findings are generally in line with what other studies have found.
states, but, at the same time, there are data problems that emerge Certainly one of the more significant findings is the high propor-
whenever bicycle collisions are studied. Often information on bicy- tion of motorists at fault. That 83.5 percent of the motorists com-
clists is less complete than that on motorists, who are generally pared with 16.5 percent of the bicyclists were found to be at fault
required to provide driver’s licenses and other information when indicates that there is strong need for more motorist education,
they have been involved in a collision. Moreover, given the differ- enforcement of traffic laws, and programs directed toward motorists
ential pattern of injury—that bicyclists are much more likely than as a means of increasing bicycle safety. The proportion of motorists
motorists to be injured and transported to emergency rooms and at fault in Hawaii may be higher than that in other states. There is
medical facilities—chance is greater that a bicyclist would be taken need to investigate the apparent difference between Hawaii and
away from the crash scene before all the necessary information on other states.
crash circumstances is collected than it is that a motorist would be. Similar to the findings of other studies (9), the principal error
There are also questions pertaining to the determination of fault by made by motorists in Hawaii was “failure to yield.” Bicyclists in
police officers. Are police officers more likely to be biased in their Hawaii who are involved in collisions also exhibit three practices
determination of fault given that certain groups (young motorists or common among crash-involved bicyclists in other places: failure to
older cyclists) are more likely to be found at fault than others? yield, disregarding controls, and riding the wrong way (9).
At the same time, however, several aspects of this particular study Among bicyclists, alcohol and drug use greatly increase the like-
should be noted. First, the analysis covered multiple years (6) and lihood of being classified at fault by police. The incidence, however,
included all reported cases in the entire state. Second, by focusing of alcohol use among both bicyclists and motorists involved in col-
on one state—and one that has uniform reporting requirements lisions with each other is low. However, inattention and misjudg-
across four counties—the problems associated with the aggregation ment on the part of both motorists and bicyclists are the principal
of data from many different states were avoided altogether. Injury human factors involved in bicycle collisions.
thresholds, reporting practices, data handling procedures, and acci- There are some clear temporal and spatial patterns to bicycle col-
dent investigation were consistent. There was high degree of con- lisions. This was demonstrated first by the effectiveness of the Pois-
80 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 1538

son model used to estimate monthly bicycle collisions and establish be a key ingredient for at-fault, injury-producing bicycle collisions
yearly trends. The temporal patterns also are evidenced by the dis- in Hawaii.
tributional statistics, which show that bicyclists are more likely to Another potential contribution of this research pertains to the use
travel and be involved in collisions during daylight hours, on clear of police crash-report data and the specific analytical techniques used
days, on dry pavement surfaces, and on certain days of the week to analyze and model bicycle collisions and fault among motorists
(Tuesdays) than motorists. Moreover, the proportion of bicycle col- and cyclists in Hawaii. The value of police crash-report data is that it
lisions that occurs at intersections (48 percent) is greater than the is collected by virtually every state in the country. Although there are
proportion of collisions between motor vehicles (42 percent) that problems with using the crash data, it does provide location-specific
does. These findings suggest that bicycle safety strategies based on information on topics such as bicycle collisions for which there may
time of day and location may be effective. be limited national data available. Particularly in a state such as
The model developed to explain fault among motorists (and bicy- Hawaii, which is geographically isolated from other states and where
clists) suggests directions for the design of corrective strategies (i.e., the data quality is high, the potential exists for useful findings that
driver education, bicycle safety, enforcement of traffic laws, and so could be incorporated into state and local programs. Although fault
forth). There is need for programs that address the young and the old has been the subject of numerous studies and deliberations elsewhere
among bicyclists and motorists. The fault curves suggest that bicy- (e.g., in courtrooms and insurance settlements), it has not been the
cle education programs should begin involving bicyclists at age 10, subject of scrutiny in research such as that described. It would be
if not earlier. Bicyclists age 15 are less likely to be at fault in a col- interesting to see similar analyses conducted in other states that focus
lision than are similarly aged motorists. There is special need for on fault, which is typically noted on police crash reports. How unique
motorist safety programs for young motorists. More research is are Hawaii’s results? How do the characteristics of motorists and
needed, however, to understand the age effects associated with fault bicyclists at fault in other states compare with similar data collected
among both bicyclists and motorists. Why are motorists so much in Hawaii? The logistic model explaining fault among those involved
more likely to be at fault than bicyclists until the age of 40? What in bicycle collisions could be extended to include other covariates
explains the correlation between being classified at fault and and circumstances. Logistic regression provides a powerful tool not
increasing age among bicyclists? Additional human-factors research only to test the relationships between various covariates and fault,
on both younger-motorist risk-taking behaviors as well as the effects but, along with the odds ratios, it provides a convenient way of mea-
of aging on motorist abilities and performance is needed to better suring and depicting the relative magnitude of the various effects
understand these effects. An important result was that helmet users related to fault in bicycle collisions.
were much more likely to be not at fault than nonusers, which sug- Hawaii has a long way to go before becoming a bicyclist’s
gests that the so-called risk-compensation arguments that have been paradise. Better understanding of the nature and circumstances of
applied to seat belt use and other protective devices may not neces- bicycle collisions can develop more effective programs and policies
sarily apply to bicyclists. Several different hypotheses may explain for improving bicycle safety.
why rural cyclists are so much more likely to be at fault than their
urban counterparts. Rural areas typically have less lighting and
visibility, and that may present a problem. Roadways may not be REFERENCES
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Between Crash Types and Injuries in Motor Vehicle Collisions in Hawaii.
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likelihood of fault associated with turning motor vehicles seems to Facilities.

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