WorkingDraft

2011

URBANRISK
ASSESSMENTS
ANAPPROACHFORUNDERSTANDING
DISASTER&CLIMATERISKINCITIES



UrbanDevelopment&LocalGovernmentUnit
Finance,EconomicsandUrbanDepartment
0 TheWorldBank

UnderstandingUrbanRisk:AnApproachforAssessingDisaster&ClimateRiskinCities

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... vi

List of Acronyms ......................................................................................................................... vii

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... viii

1 The Need for an Urban Risk Assessment ..................................................................1

1.1 Disasters and Cities ................................................................................................................... 2

1.2 Climate Change and Cities ........................................................................................................ 8
1.3 Challenges of Managing Disaster and Climate Risk in Urban Areas...................................... 12

2 Integrated Urban Risk Assessment as a Tool for Urban Management ................15

2.1 What is Risk Assessment? ....................................................................................................... 16

2.2 An Integrated Approach to Assessing Urban Risk .................................................................. 17
2.3 Initiating, Undertaking and Mainstreaming Urban Risk Assessment ..................................... 22
2.4 Challenges in Undertaking the URA ....................................................................................... 25

3 Pillars of the Urban Risk Assessment ......................................................................27

3.1 The Hazard Impact Assessment .............................................................................................. 28

3.1.1 Primary Level: Developing Simple Risk Maps ................................................................... 31
3.1.2 Secondary Level: Developing loss scenarios through simplified impact models ............... 33
3.1.3 Tertiary Level Hazard impact assessment: Modeling Disaster and Climate Risk .............. 36
3.2 The Institutional Assessment................................................................................................... 40
3.3 The Socioeconomic Assessment ............................................................................................. 44

4 Concluding Remarks: From Risk Assessment to Action Planning and

Implementation ..........................................................................................................50

4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 51

4.2 Developing Action Plans: Lessons from Vietnam and New York City .................................. 52
4.3 Key Policy Areas: Lessons from England, Turkey, Kenya, and Colombia ............................ 53
4.4 Institutions and Governance .................................................................................................... 55

Annexes .........................................................................................................................................57

Annex A: Urban Risk Assessment - Mexico City Metropolitan Area, Mexico ..................... 58

Annex B: Urban Risk Assessment - Sao Paulo, Brazil .............................................................72

Annex C: Urban Risk Assessment - Jakarta, Indonesia ..........................................................94

Annex D: Urban Risk Assessment - Dar es Salaam, Tanzania ..............................................108

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UnderstandingUrbanRisk:AnApproachforAssessingDisaster&ClimateRiskinCities

Annex E: Case Study - Dakar, Senegal ....................................................................................117

Annex F: Case Study - Legazpi, Philippines ...........................................................................123

Annex G: Case Study - Sana’a, Yemen ....................................................................................133

Annex H: Case Study - Bogota, Colombia: Using the Urban Disaster Risk Index ..............140

Annex J: Remote Sensing as a Tool for Assessing Urban Risk ............................................149

Annex K: Community Based Institutional Mapping and Other Participatory

Approaches ..............................................................................................................155

Annex L: Global, National and Local Responses to Disasters and Climate Change ...........158

Annex M: Tools for Climate Risk Assessment .......................................................................162

Annex N: Sample Household Urban Risk Questionnaire .....................................................164

Annex O: PAGER Construction Types Used for Building Inventory Development ..........167

Annex P: Urban Risk Assessment Template ..........................................................................169

Annex Q: Key Definitions .........................................................................................................174

List of Figures
Figure 1: Large Cities Exposed to Cyclones and Earthquakes ....................................................... 5
Figure 2: Large Cities in Relation to Current Climate Related Hazards ...................................... 10
Figure 3: Risk as a Process ........................................................................................................... 16
Figure 4: Urban Risk Assessment Approach ................................................................................ 17
Figure 5: Levels and Pillars of the Urban Risk Assessment (Source: Authors) ........................... 19
Figure 6: Urban Risk Assessment, Risk Reduction Planning and Monitoring Process................ 22
Figure 7: Built-up Areas of Dakar Threatened by Hazards (2008) .............................................. 32
Figure 8: Sample Vulnerability Curves ........................................................................................ 35
Figure 9: Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Model ........................................................................... 36
Figure 10: Barcelona Physical Seismic Risk (District of Eixample) ............................................ 36
Figure 11: Socioeconomic Considerations for Understanding Risk ............................................. 44
Figure 12: Screenshots from iPhone® Application Prototype .................................................... 46
Figure 13: Digital Slum Mapping: ................................................................................................ 48
Figure 14: Tumaco, Colombia ...................................................................................................... 55

Figure A1: Mexico City Metropolitan Area ................................................................................ 58

Figure A2: Urban Expansion of the Mexico City Metropolitan Areas, 1950-2005 ..................... 59
Figure A3: 90th percentile of max temp in °C in 1979-2003 and 2015-39 .................................. 66
Figure A4: 95% percentile of precipitation (mm/day) in 1979-2003 and 2015-39 ...................... 66
Figure A5: Vulnerable areas in terms of population and housing ............................................... 69

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