Year Quarter Period Demand Ft Lt Tt

0 100075 3822
1 1 1 98000 132563 103307 3763
2 2 106000 129106 106963 3752
3 3 109000 126796 110544 3735
4 4 133000 125016 116151 3922
2 1 5 130000 125814 121067 4022
2 6 116000 126233 124179 3931
3 7 133000 125210 128599 3980
4 8 116000 125989 130921 3814
3 1 9 138000 124990 135061 3847
2 10 130000 126291 138017 3757
3 11 147000 126662 142297 3810
4 12 141000 128696 145596 3759
4 1 13 144000 129926 148819 3705
2 14 142000 131333 151472 3600
3 15 165000 132400 156065 3699
4 16 173000 135660 161088 3832
5 1 17 139394
2 18 139394
3 19 139394
4 20 139394

Chart Title
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000 Chart Title
1 98000 130000 138000 144000
20000
200000 2 106000 116000 130000 142000
0
180000
1 23 3 4109000
5 6 7133000
8 9 10147000
11 12 13 165000
14 15 16
160000 4 133000 116000
Col umn C 141000
Col umn D 173000
140000

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000
160000

140000

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0
1 2 3 4
Col umn B Col umn C Col umn D Col umn E
Ft

103897 Alpha 0.1

107070 Beta 0.1
110716
114279 To 3822
120074 Lo 100075
125088 F1 103897
128110 E1 5897
132579
134735
138908
141775
146107
149355
152525
155072
159764
164919
168751
172582
176414
 Quarter Period Black P (Dt) Deseasonalis Dt_ St
0
Year 1 1 1 2250 2820 0.798
2 2 1737 3046 0.570
3 3 2412 3575 3273 0.737
4 4 7269 3784 3500 2.077
Year 2 1 5 3514 3965 3727 0.943
2 6 2143 4070 3954 0.542
3 7 3459 4119 4181 0.827
4 8 7056 4272 4408 1.601
Year 3 1 9 4120 4237 4634 0.889
2 10 2766 4274 4861 0.569
3 11 2556 4595 5088 0.502
4 12 8253 4969 5315 1.553
Year 4 1 13 5491 5390 5542 0.991
2 14 4382 6083 5769 0.760
3 15 4315 6575 5996 0.720
4 16 12035 6509 6222 1.934
Year 5 1 17 5648 6490 6449 0.876
2 18 3696 6688 6676 0.554
3 19 4843 6903 0.702
4 20 13097 7130 1.837
Year 6 1 21 0.899
2 22 0.599
3 23 0.698
4 24 1.800
Year 7 1 25 0.899
2 26 0.599
3 27 0.698
4 28 1.800
Year 8 1 29 0.899
2 30 0.599
3 31 0.698
4 32 1.800
She should choose Winter's model because there is trend and seasonal variation
St Lt Tt Ft
2043 287
0.899 2347 289 2095
0.599 2662 289 1579
0.698 3002 289 2059
1.800 3365 289 5924
0.899 3679 289 3286
0.599 3929 289 2376
0.698 4292 289 2942
1.800 4514 289 8246
0.899 4781 289 4319
0.599 5025 289 3036
0.698 5148 289 3706
1.800 5352 289 9788
0.899 5687 289 5072
0.599 6110 289 3579
0.698 6377 289 4464
1.800 6668 289 12001
0.899 6889 289 6256
0.599 7077 289 4299
0.698 7324 289 5138
1.800 7579 289 13704
0.899 7075
0.599 4884
0.698 5891
1.800 15723
0.899 8113
0.599 5576
0.698 6696
1.800 17802
0.899 9152
0.599 6268
0.698 7502
1.800 19881
Deseasonalised
Const 2593
X 227

S1 0.899
S2 0.599
S3 0.698
S4 1.800

alpha 0.1
beta 0.1
 Quarter Period Black P (Dt) Deseasonalis Dt_ St
0
Year 1 1 1 3200 3887 0.823
2 2 7658 4149 1.846
3 3 4420 4463 4410 1.002
4 4 2348 4648 4672 0.503
Year 2 1 5 3654 4935 4934 0.741
2 6 8680 5045 5196 1.671
3 7 5695 5132 5457 1.044
4 8 1953 5892 5719 0.341
Year 3 1 9 4742 6634 5981 0.793
2 10 13673 6850 6243 2.190
3 11 6640 6791 6504 1.021
4 12 2737 6573 6766 0.405
Year 4 1 13 3486 6363 7028 0.496
2 14 13186 6308 7290 1.809
3 15 5448 6932 7551 0.721
4 16 3485 7887 7813 0.446
Year 5 1 17 7728 8662 8075 0.957
2 18 16591 8864 8337 1.990
3 19 8236 8599 0.958
4 20 2316 8860 0.261
Year 6 1 21
2 22
3 23
4 24
Year 7 1 25
2 26
3 27
4 28
Year 8 1 29
2 30
3 31
4 32
St Lt Tt Ft
4228 197
0.762 4402 194 3372
1.901 4540 194 8739
0.949 4727 194 4494
0.391 5029 194 1925
0.762 5181 194 3980
1.901 5294 194 10219
0.949 5540 194 5210
0.391 5660 194 2243
0.762 5892 194 4461
1.901 6197 194 11571
0.949 6452 194 6066
0.391 6681 194 2600
0.762 6646 194 5239
1.901 6850 194 13004
0.949 6914 194 6686
0.391 7288 194 2781
0.762 7749 194 5701
1.901 8021 194 15101
0.949 8262 194 7798
0.391 8203 194 3308
0.762 6398
1.901 16334
0.949 8340
0.391 3513
0.762 6991
1.901 17813
0.949 9078
0.391 3818
0.762 7584
1.901 19292
0.949 9816
0.391 4122
Deseasonalised
Const 3625
X 262

S1 0.762
S2 1.901
S3 0.949
S4 0.391

alpha 0.1
beta 0.1
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.892597371
R Square 0.796730067
Adjusted R Sq0.782210786
Standard Erro9513.794717
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 4966765441 4966765441 54.8739342 3.31348E-06
Residual 14 1267172059 90512289.92
Total 15 6233937500

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 100075 4989.076039 20.05882436 1.03336E-11 89374.49613 110775.5039
X Variable 1 3822.058824 515.9579609 7.407694257 3.31348E-06 2715.439057 4928.67859
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
89374.49613 110775.5039
2715.439057 4928.67859
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.955412699
R Square 0.912813426
Adjusted R Sq0.906585814
Standard Erro345.5089346
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 17497621.06 17497621.06 146.575182 8.34687E-09
Residual 14 1671269.934 119376.4239
Total 15 19168891

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 2592.74761 214.873422 12.06639512 8.7135E-09 2131.889955 3053.605265
X Variable 1 226.8558824 18.73785284 12.10682378 8.34687E-09 186.667185 267.0445797
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
2131.889955 3053.605265
186.667185 267.0445797
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.539632543
R Square 0.291203282
Adjusted R Sq0.251825686
Standard Erro2717.831873
Observations 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 54625100.22 54625100.22 7.39515144 0.014059662
Residual 18 132958982 7386610.088
Total 19 187584082

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 2042.736842 1262.518397 1.617985803 0.123054685 -609.715885 4695.189569
X Variable 1 286.606015 105.3929995 2.719402773 0.014059662 65.18353952 508.0284906
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
-609.715885 4695.189569
65.18353952 508.0284906
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.932503573
R Square 0.869562913
Adjusted R Sq0.860245978
Standard Erro499.6046901
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 23295979.06 23295979.06 93.33143727 1.42986E-07
Residual 14 3494467.849 249604.8463
Total 15 26790446.91

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 3625.104596 310.7062036 11.66730678 1.34071E-08 2958.706066 4291.503125
X Variable 1 261.7586397 27.09486854 9.660819699 1.42986E-07 203.6459264 319.8713531
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
2958.706066 4291.503125
203.6459264 319.8713531
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.281972354
R Square 0.079508408
Adjusted R Sq0.028369986
Standard Erro4068.494871
Observations 20

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 25735539.91 25735539.91 1.554768518 0.228414719
Residual 18 297947709 16552650.52
Total 19 323683249

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 4228.205263 1889.943847 2.237212111 0.038161994 257.5805812 8198.829945
X Variable 1 196.7233083 157.769464 1.246903572 0.228414719 -134.738036 528.1846525
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
257.5805812 8198.829945
-134.738036 528.1846525