Correlational Research

Chapter Fifteen

Correlational Research

Chapter Fifteen
Bring folder of readings

The Nature of Correlational

Research Three Sets of Data Showing Different
• Correlational Research is also known as Directions and Degrees of Correlation
Associational Research. (Table 15.1)
• Relationships among two or more
variables are studied without any attempt (A) (B) (C)
r = +1.00 r = -1.00 r=0
to influence them. X Y X Y X Y
• Investigates the possibility of relationships 5 5 5 1 2 1
between two variables. 4 4 4 2 5 4
3 3 3 3 3 3
• There is no manipulation of variables in
2 2 2 4 1 5
Correlational Research.
1 1 1 5 4 2

Correlational studies describe the variable relationship via a correlation coefficient

Purpose of Correlational Research

Purpose of Correlational Research
• Correlational studies are carried out to explain
important human behavior or to predict likely outcomes
(identify relationships among variables).
• If a relationship of sufficient magnitude exists between
two variables, it becomes possible to predict a score
on either variable if a score on the other variable is
known (Prediction Studies).
• The variable that is used to make the prediction is
called the predictor variable.
(cont.)
• The variable about which the prediction is made is
called the criterion variable.
• Both scatterplots and regression lines are used in
correlational studies to predict a score on a criterion
variable
• A predicted score is never exact. Through a prediction
equation (see p. 585), researchers use a predicted
score and an index of prediction error (standard error of
estimate) to conclude if the score is likely to be
incorrect.

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Scatterplot Illustrating a Correlation Prediction Using a Scatterplot
of +1.00 (Figure 15.1) (Figure 15.2)

More Complex Correlational Scatterplot Illustrating a Correlation

Techniques of +1.00 (Figure 15.3)
• Multiple Regression
• Technique that enables
researchers to determine a
correlation between a criterion
variable and the best combination • Factor Analysis
of two or more predictor variables • Allows the researcher to
• Coefficient of multiple correlation determine whether many variables
can be described by a few factors
(R)
• Indicates the strength of the • Path Analysis
correlation between the • Used to test the likelihood of a
combination of the predictor causal connection among three or
variables and the criterion variable more variables
• Coefficient of Determination • Structural Modeling
• Indicates the percentage of the • Sophisticated method for
variability among the criterion exploring and possibly confirming
scores that can be attributed to causation among several
differences in the scores on the variables
predictor variable
• Discriminant Function Analysis
• Rather than using multiple
regression, this technique is used
when the criterion value is
categorical

Prediction Using a Scatterplot Path Analysis Diagram

(Figure 15.4) (Figure 15.5)

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 Partial Correlation (Figure 15.6) Scatterplots Illustrating How a Factor
(C) May Not be a Threat to
Internal Validity (Figure 15.7)

Circle Diagrams Illustrating

Relationships Among Variables Basic Steps in Correlational
(Figure 15.8) Research
• Problem selection • Determining design
and procedures
• Choosing a sample
• Collecting and
• Selecting or choosing analyzing data
proper instruments
• Interpreting results

What Do Correlational Coefficients Threats to Internal Validity

Tell Us? in Correlational Research
• The meaning of a given correlation coefficient depends
on how it is applied.
• Correlation coefficients below .35 show only a slight
• Subject • Testing
relationship between variables. characteristics • History
• Correlations between .40 and .60 may have theoretical • Mortality
and/or practical value depending on the context. • Data collector
• Only when a correlation of .65 or higher is obtained, can • Location characteristics
one reasonably assume an accurate prediction.
• Correlations over .85 indicate a very strong relationship
• Instrument decay • Data collector bias
between the variables correlated.

The following must be controlled to reduce threats to internal validity

3
 The larger the sample size (n)
the more confident you can be
that your sample mean is a good
Statistical Inference
representation of the population
mean. In other words, the "n"
justifies the means.
~ Ancient Kung Foole Proverb

One- and Two Tailed Probabilities Hypothesis Testing

• One-tailed
– The probability that an observation will occur
at one end of the sampling distribution.
• Two-tailed
– The probability that an observation will occur
at either extreme of the sampling distribution.
• Conceptual (Research) Hypothesis
– A general statement about the relationship
between the independent and dependent
variables
• Statistical Hypothesis
– A statement that can be shown to be
supported or not supported by the data.

Examples of the Null and

Statistical Significance Testing
Alternative Hypotheses
• Indirect Proof of a Hypothesis Nondirectional Test Directional Test
• Null Hypothesis
– A statement that specifies no relationship or
difference on a population parameter. Ho: µ = 5 Ho: µ ≥ 5 or µ ≤ 5
• Alternative Hypothesis Ha: µ ≠ 5 Ha: µ < 5 or µ > 5
– A statement that specifies some value other than the
null hypothesis is true.

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 Rejecting the Null Two Types of Error
• Alpha Level • Type I
– The level of significant set by the – When a researcher rejects the null hypothesis
experimenter. It is the confidence with which when in fact it is true. The probability of a type
the researcher can decide to reject the null I error is α.
hypothesis.
• Significance Level • Type II
– The probability value used to conclude that – An error that occurs when a researcher fails
the null hypothesis is an incorrect statement. to reject a null hypothesis that should be
Common significance levels are .05, .01 and rejected. The probability of a Type II error is β.
.001.

Type 1 Error & Type 2 Error The OJ Trial

Scientist’s Decision
Reject null hypothesis Fail to reject null hypothesis
For a nice tutorial go to:
Type 1 Error Correct Decision http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/OJtrial/ojhome.htm
Null hypothesis
is true
probability = α Probability = 1- α

Null hypothesis Correct decision Type 2 Error

is false
probability = 1 - β probability = β

Type 1 Error =α Type 2 Error =β

Cases in which you reject Cases in which you fail to
null hypothesis when it is reject null hypothesis when
really true it is false

The Problems with SST

• We misunderstand what it does tell us.
• It does not tell us what we want to know.
Statistical Significance Testing • We often overemphasize SST.

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 Four Important Questions
1. Is there a real relationship in the
population?
Statistical Significance
2. How large is the relationship?
Effect Size or Magnitude
3. Is it a relationship that has important,
powerful, useful, meaningful implications?
Practical Significance
4. Why is the relationship there?
??????
How it works:
1. Assume sampling error occurred; there is
no relationship in the population.
2. Build a statistical scenario based on this
null hypothesis
3. How likely is it I got the sample value I
got when the null hypothesis is true?
(This is the fabled p-value.)
What it does tell us
• What is the probability that we would see a
relationship in our sample when there is
no relationship in the population?
• Can we rule out sampling error as a
competing hypothesis for our finding?
SST is all about . . .
• Sampling Error
– The difference between what I see in my
sample and what exists in the target
population.
– Simply because I sampled, I could be wrong.
– This is a threat to Internal Validity
How it works (cont’d):
• How unlikely does my result have to be to
rule out sampling error? alpha (α).
• If p < α, then our result is statistically rare,
is unlikely to occur when there isn’
isn’t a
relationship in the population.
What it does not tell us
• Whether the null hypothesis is true.
• Whether our results will replicate.
• Whether our research hypothesis is true.
• How big the effect or relationship is.
• How important the results are.
• Why there is a relationship.