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Determination
Of all the economic fluctuations in the world economy, the one that stands
out particularly large, painful and intellectually significant is the great
depression of 1930s. During this time the U S and many other countries
experienced massive unemployment and greatly reduced incomes. In the
worst year 1933, one fourth of labour force was unemployed and the real
GDP was 30 % below its 1929 level.
In the General Theory, Keynes proposed that an economy’s total income was
in the short run determined largely by the desire to spend by the household,
firms and the government. The more people want to spend the more goods
and services firms can sell. The more firms can sell the more output they will
choose to produce and the more workers they will choose to hire.
AD = C + I + G + X - M
Please note that import has been subtracted from the aggregate demand as
aggregate demand gets reduced by the amount of import (as the economic
agents demand shifts to the product from abroad)
Consumption Function
C of AD represents consumption which is the function of income. This can be
written as
C = C + cY
Consumption
Income
Fig. 2 Consumption
Function
∆C
=c
∆Y
c is termed as marginal propensity to consume. It may be defined
as the incremental change in consumption level as a response to
incremental change in income. (Ref. Fig. 2)
Savings Function
Savings
Income
AD =C +cY +I +G +X - M
where C , I , G , X , M are exogenous variables
Exogenous variables can be rewritten as
A =C +I +G +X - M
Then
AD = A +cY
Some key terminology
Endogenous Variables: The variable, the value for which is derived
from the system
Exogenous Variables: The variable for which the values are given.
For any economy to be in equilibrium,
AD = Y
Therefore, in equlibrium
Y = A + cY
⇒ Y − cY = A
⇒ (1 − c ) Y = A
1
⇒ Y* = *A
(1 − c )
1
where, is multiplier
(1 − c )
Re wrting
* (C + I + G + X - M )
1
Y* =
(1 − c )
In differential
*∆ ( C + I + G + X - M)
1
∆Y=
( 1 − c)
Therefore, the same formulation can also be looked differently.
We can say that if any of the Exogenous variables change, income in
any economy can also change via multiplier effect.
Incom
e
Y*
Y*
Income Determination in
Keynesian System
Alternative Formulation for equilibrium
Planned Investment = Saving
Stability Analysis
For any output above Y* there will be involuntary accumulation of
inventories in the economy, whereas for any output below Y* there will
be run down on the stocks.
AD AD = Y
Incom
Y1 Y* e
Y2
Multiplier
If the objective of the government is to raise the income of the
economy it can be done by increasing autonomous investment.
Increase in investment would mean that there is increase in income
through multiplier effect.
AD = Y
AD
Incom
e
Y*
Y*
Figure 6
Change in autonomous investment