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a) Dado Y89 = 50; Y90= 51; 90= 0.4, calcular las predicciones de Y91, Y92 y Y93
dada la información hasta el periodo 90.
b) Escriba al modelo en su forma MA() obtenga los coeficientes i hasta 4,
calcule la varianza del error de pronóstico y obtenga el intervalo de confianza
95% para las predicciones.
120
4.5
100
80 4.0
60
3.5
40
20 3.0
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90
DIVID LNDIVID
8 .08
6 .06
4 .04
2 .02
0 .00
-2 -.02
-4 -.04
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90
D1DIVID D1LNDIVID
0 1
-1 0
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5 -5
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
_ZIVOTC _VCRITC
Modelo estimado 1
Dependent Variable: DLOG(DIVID)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/06/06 Time: 06:56
Sample(adjusted): 1970:4 1991:4
Included observations: 85 after adjusting endpoints
Convergence achieved after 8 iterations
Backcast: 1970:3
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.021240 0.002611 8.135039 0.0000
AR(1) 1.261170 0.170897 7.379729 0.0000
AR(2) -0.609101 0.110468 -5.513841 0.0000
MA(1) -0.514564 0.204790 -2.512646 0.0140
R-squared 0.488392 Mean dependent var 0.020970
Adjusted R-squared 0.469443 S.D. dependent var 0.023319
S.E. of regression 0.016985 Akaike info criterion -5.267052
Sum squared resid 0.023368 Schwarz criterion -5.152103
Log likelihood 227.8497 F-statistic 25.77475
Durbin-Watson stat 2.011339 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Inverted AR Roots .63 -.46i .63+.46i
Inverted MA Roots .51
Modelo Estimado 2
Dependent Variable: DLOG(DIVID)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/27/08 Time: 09:51
Sample(adjusted): 1971:1 1991:4
Included observations: 84 after adjusting endpoints
Convergence achieved after 3 iterations
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.021089 0.002865 7.361386 0.0000
AR(1) 0.675610 0.080656 8.376456 0.0000
AR(3) -0.317894 0.077888 -4.081440 0.0001
R-squared 0.485936 Mean dependent var 0.021322
Adjusted R-squared 0.473243 S.D. dependent var 0.023230
S.E. of regression 0.016860 Akaike info criterion -5.292706
Sum squared resid 0.023025 Schwarz criterion -5.205891
Log likelihood 225.2936 F-statistic 38.28390
Durbin-Watson stat 1.806892 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Inverted AR Roots .60+.51i .60 -.51i -.52
Modelo 1 Modelo 2
Modelo 1 Modelo 2
Modelo 1 Modelo 2
Pronósticos Modelo 1 Pronósticos Modelo 2
8. Para las series Consumo y Renta analice la data y elabore el modelo de transferencia
para el Consumo en función de la Renta. La data en el archivo Renta-consumo.wf1
CONSUMO
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Null Hypothesis: CONSUMO has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
t-Statistic Prob.*
D1CONSUMO
30
20
10
-10
-20
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
t-Statistic Prob.*
D1LNCONSUMO
.04
.03
.02
.01
.00
-.01
-.02
-.03
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Null Hypothesis: D1LNCONSUMO has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
t-Statistic Prob.*
RENTA
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Null Hypothesis: RENTA has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
t-Statistic Prob.*
D1RENTA
60
40
20
-20
-40
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
t-Statistic Prob.*
.06
.04
.02
.00
-.02
-.04
-.06
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Null Hypothesis: D1LNRENTA has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
t-Statistic Prob.*