Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: Vietnam and
U.S. Weigh In Against China
Carlyle A. Thayer
July 21, 2019

Regarding the recent standoff in the South China Sea between Vietnam and China we
request your assessment of the following six issues:
Q1. How serious is China’s deployment of the Haiyang Dizhi 8 nsurvey vessel into
Vietnam Exclusive Economic Zone? Does this represent a new level of Chiese
agfgressiveness in the South China Sea?
ANSWER: The Haiyang Dizhi 8 is owned by the China Geological Survey, a state agency.
Its dispatch into Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) without prior permission for
commercial purposes is a premeditated breach of international law. Further, the
Haiyang Dizhi 8 was escorted by two China Coast Guard ships, one of which weighs a
mammoth 10,000 tons. This makes this incident a very serious challenge to Vietnam’s
sovereign jurisdiction in its EEZ.
China has no basis in international law for its actions Three years ago, the Arbitral
Tribunal that heard the case brought by the Philippines against China. It issued an
Award that declared that China’s claims to historic rights was extinguished when China
acceded to the United Nations Convention on the South China Sea and that China’s
nine-dash line was without legal foundation.
At the moment we can only speculate about China’s motivation. We do not know, for
example whether the deployment of the Haiyang Dizhi 8 was a decision made by the
China Geological Survey or by China’s central government or one of its agencies. One
American analyst has speculated, without providing any evidence, that the
deployment of the Haiyang Dizhi 8 was to “punish” Vietnam for giving Rosneft Vietnam
BV permission to commence oil exploration in Bock 06-01. Punish may be too strong
a word.
Q2. How does the deployment of a survey vessel reflect China’s ambitions in the South
China Sea after all its land reclamation, militarization as well as the recent anti-ship
ballistic missile live fire-drill?
ANSWER: China claims indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea, including
all land features and adjacent waters, and calls on all states to respect China’s
sovereignty. In furtherance of this spurious claim, China has militarized seven artificial
islands in the Spratly archipelago and turned them into forward operating bases for
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its military, coast guard, maritime militia and fishing fleet. All these actions are
designed to intimidate littoral states.
China views all other countries as outsiders. China seeks to develop the military
capacity, such as deploying anti-ship ballistic missiles and “aircraft carrier killer”
ballistic missiles to deter the United States from operating in the South China Sea.
It is clear from China’s submission to the ASEAN-China Single Draft South China Sea
Code of Conduct Negotiating Text that oil exploration should only be conducted
between the state oil companies belonging to China and ASEAN states and that
advance notification should be given to any military exercises between external
powers and regional states so regional states (read China) can object.
In other words, China sees to impose its hegemony over the South China Sea and the
vital shipping lanes through which one-third of world trade travels.
Q3. How will it affect the stability of such a vital maritime route?
ANSWER: Quite clearly, China’s actions have and will continue to raise tensions. The
Trump Administration has conducted more frequent Freedom of Navigation
Operational Patrols in the South China Sea. This has provoked China to respond by
conducting live firing naval exercises including the launch of anti-ship ballistic missiles.
The United States Department of State has responded strongly to China’s recent
actions. A press statement declared:
The United States is concerned by reports of China’s interference with oil and gas
activities in the South China Sea (SCS), including Vietnam’s long-standing
exploration and production activities. China’s repeated provocative actions aimed
at the offshore oil and gas development of other claimant states threaten regional
energy security and undermine the free and open Indo-Pacific energy market…
The United States firmly opposes coercion and intimidation by any claimant to
assert its territorial or maritime claims.
China should cease its bullying behavior and refrain from engaging in this type of
provocative and destabilizing activity
Over the last two months, the China Coast Guard as interfered in oil exploration
activities in Malaysian waters and Chinese fishermen have sunk a Filipino fishing boat
without rendering assistance to the crew. These activities no only raise tensions but
could provoke a miscalculation or incident leading to loss of lifel
Q4. We noticed an unusual phrase in Vietnam's statement this time in which it "called
on international community to join its efforts in maintaining order, peace and security
in the South China Sea". What can we make of this?
ANSWER: Vietnam has consistently maintained that peace and security in the South
China Sea is not just the responsibility of littoral states but includes other maritime
powers and members of the international community that are dependent on the sea
lines of communication that pass through this region.
Vietnam has also taken note that certain major powers – the U.S, Japan, France and
the United Kingdom – have national interests in peace and stability in the South China
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Sea. Vietnam’s statement is an open invitation for these powers to assist Vietnam
politically, diplomatically, and materially.
Q5. The U.S. State Department issued a strong condemnation against China’s act of
bullying and coercion. What else can Washington and other nations do to counter this
kind of coercive activity by Beijing?
ANSWER: The United States and other concerned states can raise this matter at all
relevant meetings of multilateral bodies such as ASEAN meetings with dialogue
partners, ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and Expanded ARF meetings, ASEAN Defence
Ministers’ Meeting Plus, and East Asia Summit,
It is time to go further and step up cooperation between the Coast Guards and other
maritime law enforcement agencies of the claimant states and external powers to
develop capacity to defend national sovereignty and sovereign jurisdiction in the
respective EEZs of claimant states.
External powers such as the U.S., France, United Kingdom etc. could impose
commercial and other sanctions on the China Geological Survey and its vessels that
are found to have illegally intruded into the EEZ of Southeast Asian littoral states.,
Q6. It has been suggested by some that Vietnam could us arbitration under UNCLOS.
Do you think Vietnam stands a chance of winning?
ANSWER: Vietnam has always left this option on the table. It could follow the example
of the Philippines and seek clarification of Vietnam’s entitlements as a littoral state to
sovereign jurisdiction in its EEZ and argue that China has conducted illegal activities to
interfere with Vietnam’s entitlements.
Vietnam should stand a very good chance of winning because there are many parallels
with the Philippines’ case.
But the bottom line is that the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea does
not make any provision for enforcement. Vietnam would have to take another step to
enlist the support of external powers on the grounds that they all share the same
objective on a rules-based order not only in the South China Sea but in the Indo-Pacific
Region.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “South China Sea: Vietnam and U.S. Weigh In
Against China,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 21, 2019. All background
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.