Environment - Social - Economic Issues

on
Increasing BMTA Bus Fares

Mr. Panom Parinya Energy. T.&M. 48910402

Mr. Witawin Kaewbuddee Envi. T.&M. 48910602

JEE 623 Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy

Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment

King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi

12 September 2005
 Contents

Environment - Social - Economic Issues on Increasing BMTA Bus Fares .................. 2

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................... 2
2. Objective ............................................................................................................... 2
3. Scope of Study....................................................................................................... 3
4. Executive Summary............................................................................................... 3
BMTA History ........................................................................................................3
Organization ...........................................................................................................3
BMTA Plans ...........................................................................................................4
Business Summary..................................................................................................5
Bus fare structure....................................................................................................8
Profit (loss) .............................................................................................................9
Services ................................................................................................................10
Core Problems ......................................................................................................12
Strategies and Policies ..........................................................................................13
Statement Report ..................................................................................................14
Bangkok bus service and passenger satisfaction ....................................................14
5. Data Analysis and Result ..................................................................................... 16
Methodology ........................................................................................................16
Revenue report.....................................................................................................16
Expense Report.....................................................................................................18
Study Framework..................................................................................................24
Economic Scenario analysis..................................................................................26
Environmental Scenario Analysis..........................................................................27
6. Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 29
7. Discussions.......................................................................................................... 30
8. References ........................................................................................................... 33

1
 Environment - Social - Economic Issues on Increasing BMTA Bus Fares

Date: 12 September 2005

Witawin Kaewbuddee and Panom Parinya

The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment , King Mongkut’s University of
Technology Thonburi, Bangkok, Thailand

Abstract: This report presents economic, social and environment consequences concern
BMTA business that is caused by the sharply rising diesel price. At present, BMTA has
been slated for transfer to the authority of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration
(BMA) due to government’s policy to improve deficit business. Cost of oil price is one of
major impacts in BMTA business. Twenty percent of expenses are cost of fuels. So, to
recover deficit situation, policies as well as strategies have been imposed. Inevitably,
increasing bus fare is used for emergency situation. It’s simple tactic to increase revenue.
But this policy impacts passengers directly.

1. Introduction

Energy is a production factor of the commercial and industrial sectors. Thai government
has been imposed increasing domestic fuel price respect to current high world crude oil
price. This action effects directly on transportation sector such as BMTA.

Gasoline, diesel, is a main factor of transportation service business. Bangkok Mass Transit
Authority (BMTA) which provides transport services has effected directly from higher
diesel price. Unfortunately, current financial of BMTA is in drawback. Therefore, those
situations will drive BMTA business to be declined. To stabilize business, many strategies
are implemented. Absolutely, increasing bus fares is one of main strategies which can be
introduced effortlessly respect to emergency conditions.

BMTA provides vital services in urban areas, but at the same time, causes serious urban problems. The
negative effects of urban transport activities include air pollution, accidents, congestion, noise from road
transport, energy consumption, and consumption of land and other natural resources for the production
of vehicles and infrastructure. In addition, urban transportation is one of the most significant sources of
carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), which cause climate change. The most serious environmental effect of
transportation is air pollution. Plans to reduce these negative impacts within Bangkok and vicinity are
needed urgently.

2. Objective

The main objectives are to facilitate a better understanding of factors affecting bus fares
and study consequences on economic, social and environment subject to increasing BMTA
bus fares due to sharply increasing fuel price. There are general economic tools are applied:
demand and supply, social costs and benefits, and externalities.

2
 3. Scope of Study

1. This study focuses on rising oil price which rouses increasing BMTA bus fares.
2. Data for analysis is gathered from BMTA. Passenger satisfaction information is based on
previous projects which are collected from web sites.
3. Study areas are Bangkok and vicinity.
4. The consequences will be presented on economic, social and environment aspect with
both before and after bus fare adjustment.

4. Executive Summary
BMTA History
Bus services were first introduced to serve commuters in Bangkok in 1907. Originally,
transport service was provided by horse-drawn carriages and later by three-wheeled Ford
motorcars with two long parallel benches for seating. This public transport proved very
popular, and by 1933, bus services were available virtually throughout major areas of the
capital. Service expanded as the city and its population grew. Several new companies
entered the field. Bus routes grew in number and length and became more complicated.
However, as traffic became more congested, private bus services proved unequal to rising
public expectations. During the years 1973-1975 the country was hard hit by a high
inflation rate. Bus operators began to demand increase in fares. Eventually, the government
decided to take over the task of providing mass transit services. It names "Mahanakhon
Transport Company Limited", began in October, 1975, as a non-profit company.

Unfortunately, due to certain legal constraints and a change in the government, the
Mahanakhon Transport Company Limited was soon scrapped. In August, 1976, the
"Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA)" was established by a Royal Decree
Establishing the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority, B.E. 2519.

Organization
Fig 1 shows organization chart of BMTA.
BMTA consists of 3 departments as the following.

1. The Department of Administration

The Department of Administration is responsible for personnel administration, finance,
internal administrative affairs and coordinating with other Departments. Deputy Director of
(Administration) is the superior and responsible for management and reports to the Director
directly.

2. The Department of Bus Operation

The Department of Bus Operation is responsible for bus services, supervise planning of bus
operation, maintenance of buses to make profit from bus fare revenue according to target
set, to control expenditures according to budget giver and coordinating with other
departments, Deputy Director of Bus operation is the superior and reports to the Director
directly.

3. The Department of private Co-Bus Operation

The Department of Private Co-Bus Operation is responsible for planning, arrangement joint
private of bus operation, control, examine bus operation and payment of fees according to
contract of concession, Deputy Director of Private Co-Bus Operation is the superior and

3
report to the Director directly.

Fig. 1 shows organization chart of BMTA.

BMTA Plans

Bus Services

1. To Operate Bus Services guarantees the time of coming and arriving of night shift
bus between a starting point - a destination and crowed passenger point.
2. To Operate bus services connectedly on 8 routes. Which run on annular route and
increase amount of bus as demand of passengers?
3. Bus for School by setting up 4 bus routes services for only student.
4. Project of park and ride by setting up 4 places per year in BMTA's depot, the
department store and general place for parking of personal car to get on bus.
5. Issue of advance ticket sold to passenger. There are 3 kinds of tickets: the ticket for
use all day, monthly and yearly. This program has launched since fourth month of
first year.
6. To use system of automatic fare collection on potential route since second year goes
on. So that BMTA can reduce expenditure 500 Baht/bus/day.
7. To increase 41 air-condition bus services on the private route since second year
next and fourth year to increase 166 non-air condition bus services on private route
again.

Increase in management efficiency

1. Enhancement of development bus service with ISO 9001:2000 quality management

system. Which BMTA will take less 24 bus routes into system of ISO 9001 : 2000 quality
management by 2002 year will get the certificate of ISO 9001 : 2000 25 routes first.

2. Issue of connected ticket which can use with other public transit for example passenger
can use the ticket with BMTA's bus, BTS and MRTA.

4
Business Summary

Bus Operations in Fiscal Years 1992-2002

Number of Passengers per day during Fiscal Years 1992-2003 (Year 2001, during October
2000 - July 2002)
Unit: person per day

Table 1 shows a number of passengers year 1992 – 2003.

Type Air
Conditioned Regular Bus Total
Fiscal Year Bus
1992 253,605 3,820,278 4,073,883
1993 426,440 3,360,663 3,787,103
1994 483,860 3,022,395 3,506,255
1995 548,453 2,831,131 3,379,584
1996 581,856 2,743,496 3,325,352
1997 688,142 2,664,412 3,352,554
1998 814,182 2,366,444 3,180,626
1999 1,123,083 1,805,892 2,928,975
2000 1,215,083 1,596,357 2,811,440
2001 1090099 1480557 2,570,656
2002 1123242 1401931 2,525,173
2003 1,261,399 1,125213 2,386612

Air-Conditioned Buses (1992-2003)

Fig. 2 shows a number of passengers of air-conditioned buses.

5
Regular Buses (1992-2003)

Fig. 3 shows a number of passengers of regular buses.

BMTA. Work Force, As of July 2004 : 18,725

1 Executive and Office Staff 2,673 14 %

2 Dispatchers & Inspectors 1,563 8%
3 Drivers 7,155 38 %
4 Bus Conductors 7,334 40 %
18,725 100
November 2004

Fig. 4 shows BMTA workforce.

6
 Table 2 No. of buses and Routes, As of July 2004.

No. of Buses
1 BMTA. Buses 3,590 23 %
2 Joint Service Buses 3,331 21 %
3 Minibuses 1,157 7%
4 Small buses plying lanes 2,045 13 %
5 Van Buses 5,555 36 %

Fig 5 No. of buses and Routes, As of July 2004.

Table 3 No. of Routes.

No. of Routes
1 BMTA. Buses 102 24 %
2 Joint Service Buses 104 24 %
3 Minibuses 48 11 %
4 Small buses plying lanes 104 24 %
5 Van Buses 116 28%
" Minibuses ply the same routes as BMTA buses and joint-service buses."

7
 Fig. 6 No. of Routes.

Bus fare structure

Table 4 shows bus fare structure.
Regular Buses Air-conditioned Buses
Expenses of buses
Cream-red Rent Buses Ordinary Air Buses NGV Buses Long Air Buses EURO II 797 EURO II 500
1. Average tickets / bus / day
1.1 tickets / bus / day 726 682 417 328 641 460 480
1.2 coupon / bus / day 2 2 2 2 2 2
2. Expenses of buses (baths/bus/day)
2.1 Leasing of buses 568.44
2.2 Buses Maintenance by Contracts 1236.75 1461.18 1766.07 1872.5 1698.01 1612.03 1475.26
2.3 Salaries and Benefit
- Driver 1023.08 1018.79 991.45 980.63 1019.15 999.48 1002.15
- Bus conductor 797.1 794.91 778.87 771.54 798.77 786.06 788.05
2.4 Fuel and Gases 1899.94 1864.88 3121.76 1666.2 4167.94 3153.56 3313.94
2.5 Depreciation (from Operating) 18.14 18.14 373.17 18.14 1813.79 1336.1 1247.15
2.6 Interest Expenses from BMTA 979.58 929.27 1012.67 172.31 1208.98 1136.53 1631.34
2.7 Other Expenses 1521.58 1521.58 1593.1 1593.1 1593.1 1575.54 1575.54
Total Expenses 7476.17 8177.18 9637.08 7074.42 12299.73 10599.32 11033.43
% Expense 11.28 12.33 14.54 10.67 18.55 15.99 16.64
All Expenses of buses
- /bus/day 7476.17 8177.18 9637.08 7074.42 12299.73 10599.32 11033.43
- /trip 797.88 831.01 1366.96 1276.97 2029.66 1118.07 1105.55
- /km. 33.83 35.19 38.78 31.67 55.02 40.33 39.82
- /ticket 10.27 11.99 23.01 21.45 19.13 22.95 22.9
Expenses of buses (exclude 2.5 , 2.6)
- /bus/day 6478.45 7229.77 8251.24 6883.97 9276.97 8126.68 8154.95
- /trip 691.4 734.73 1170.39 1242.59 1530.85 857.25 817.13
- /km. 29.31 31.11 33.2 30.82 41.5 30.92 29.43
- /ticket 8.9 10.6 19.7 20.87 14.43 17.6 16.93

8
Balance sheet
Table 5 shows balance sheet.
Bangkok Mass Transit Authority
Balance Sheet
as of  March 2005
Particulars (Million Baht)
1. Assets
1.1 Current Assets 659.600
1.2 Land,Building and Other Assets 5,310.714
1.3 Other assets 80.685
Total Assets 6}050.999
2. Liabilities and Shareholders
2.1 Liabilities
2.1.1 Current Liabilities 13,349.89
2.1.2 Long-term Liabilities 25,113.134
2.1.3 Other liabilities 84.953
Total Other Liabilities 38,547.976
2.2 Government Budget
2.2.1 Equity 11,477.557
2.2.2 Accumulated Loss (43,974.534)
ToTal Equity (32,496.977)
3. Total Libilities and Equity 6,050.99

Profit (loss)
Table 6 shows profit(loss).
Bangkok Mass Transit Authority
Profit (Loss)
March 2005
Particulars (Million Baht)
Revenues
Revenues from fares
Regular Buses 144.041
Air - conditioned Buses 336.931
Revenue from of coupon 2.439
Revenue from Monthly ticket sales -
Revenue from Joint Air-conditioned buses 8.579
Revenue from Joint Air-conditioned Vans 5.531
Revenue from Join fee and other 2.086
Revenue from Mini Buses 0.316

9
Other Revenues 5.301
Total Revenues 505.226
Expenses
Salaries and Benefit 317.594
Fuel and Gases 179.269
Leasing of buses 1.577
Buses Maintenance by Contracts 145.970
Over Buses 's Kilomters Expenses 4.340
Leasing of premises 9.866
Value-added Taxes 24.369
Interest Expenses from BMTA 123.414
Depreciation (from Operating) 65.412
Other Expenses 48.446
Total Expenses 920.258
Net Profit (Loss) (415.032)
Less Depreciation (Management) 65.412
Less Interest Expenses from BMTA 123.414
Net Profit (Loss)( Interest and Depreciation not Included)(EBIDA) (226.206)

Services
Types of Buses and Fares

Table 7 shows types of buses and fares.

Type Bus Color Fare Service Time
Regular bus Cream-Red 5 baht 05.00 - 23.00 hrs.
Regular bus White-Blue 6 baht 05.00 - 23.00 hrs.
Expressway bus Cream-Red 6.50 baht 05.00 - 23.00 hrs.
All-night service bus Cream-Red 6 baht 23.00 - 05.00 hrs.
Air conditioned bus Cream-Blue 9 11 13 15 17 baht 05.00 - 23.00 hrs.
(depending on the
distance traveled)
Air conditioned bus White-Pink 10 baht 04.30 - 22.00 hrs.
(10 meters)
EURO II bus Yellow- 11 13 15 17 19 21 baht 05.00 - 23.00 hrs.
Orange (depending on the
distance traveled)
Minibus (on main Green 4.50 baht 05.00 - 23.00 hrs.
road)
Minibus (plying Soi) Red Maroon 4.00 baht 06.00 - 21.00 hrs.

10
Fare Exemptions and Concessions

Table 8 shows exemptions and concessions.

The following passengers are eligible for bus fare exemptions:
1. BMTA bus inspectors
2. Buddhist monks and novices
3. Mailmen in uniform while on duty
4. Holders of BMTA employee ID cards
5. Holders of official certificates or medals specified in the
Regulation on Bus Fare Exemptions

Half-Price Concessions

Table 9 shows half-price concessions

The following passengers are eligible for half-price fares when using the
service of regular buses.The following passengers are eligible for half-price
fares when using the service of regular buses.
1. The blind with a certificate from the Association of the Blind
2. Soldiers and policemen in uniform
3. Holders of official certificates or medals as specified by the Regulation on
Bus Fare Concession at the exact rates specified by the Transport Control
Victory Medal (Off-spring of holders of this medal are also entitled.)
European Royal War Medal
Border Service Medal
Free-Man Protection Medal
Non-active War Veterans Classes 1 2 3 and 4

Fare Concessions for Air-conditioned Buses

Holders of the following official certificates and medals are
eligible for air-conditioned bus fare reductions:
1. Victory Medal (Off-spring of holders of this medal are also
entitled.)
2. Border Service Medal
3. Free-Man Protection Medal
4. European Royal War Medal
5. Non- active War Veterans Classes 1 2 3 and 4
6. BMTA Employee ID Cards

11
 Concessions

Regular Fare Reduced Fare

9 Bath 6 Bath
11 Bath 7 Bath
13 Bath 9 Bath
15 Bath 10 Bath
17 Bath 11 Bath
19 Bath 13 Bath
21 Bath 14 Bath
23 Bath 16 Bath

Core Problems

Business of BMTA has been worse off up until now. The cause of problems can be
concluded as the following:
1. Bus fare by which is imposed by the government is underestimated. Bus service is
focused on providing good services for passengers rather than make a profit. As a
result, there is no income to cover business expenditures. Business has been out of
pocket.
2. There is less satisfaction of passengers. BMTA can not provide better services for
passengers. Thus, passengers decide to choose other services such as car, van car,
and taxi.
3. There are many limited conditions for private bus operator to concede due to factors
both internal and external of BMTA such as underestimate bus fare, high standard
of bus, financial loan services, and others. Private bus operators still have taken old
bus from BMTA to join their business.
4. BMTA has a lot of maintenance costs each year. At present, BMTA is still in dept.
This kind of cost will be increased each year.
5. And, also BMTA has high rent cost of offices and garages.
6. Traffic jam is one problem that stimulates less revenue but increase high cost of
fuel, wages, and overtime cost.

12
Strategies and Policies

To survive from deficit and can run business without government subsidies, BMTA has
been launched business strategies and policies to recover those problems as the following:
1. BMTA is having a plan to improve standard of bus ser vices such as use new bus,
improve old bus, partnership, air-condition bus, bus rapid transit, etc.
2. Private operators should be released from the BMTA sub-licenses and BMTA's
regulatory power should be removed.
3. BMTA have a plan forced to reduce operating costs.
4. BMTA's historical, accumulated debt should be transferred to the government.
5. A new competent regulatory body, independent of operation will be set up to
monitor, plan and regulate all modes of public transport.
6. There is no competition in the current bus system since private operators must
follow the routes, timetables and fares dictated by BMTA. Ultimately the private
industry need to be restructured and consolidate to hold route franchises and take
over responsibility for service development.
7. To promote and develop marketing system and good customer relationship.
8. BMTA will obtain bus management by objective (MBO).
9. BLMT will improve quality of services such bus preventive maintenance, pollution,
etc.

To support above strategies and policies, BMTA has launched 3 sub-plans which are for
year 2002-2006 as the following.
1. Quality of bus services plan
2. Increase service efficiency and organization improvement plan
3. Plan of financial system improvement

13
Statement Report

BMTA started business with used bus from private company about 2,703 buses and
compensate cost 370 billion baht. Thai government allocated money for BMTA 329.20
billion baht. Therefore, BMTA has deficit 40.80 billion baht. BMTA has never been surplus
due to expenditure is greater than revenue. This table show financial report from year 1977-
2004.
Table 10 shows statement report.
Year Income Expediture Profit(deficit)
2520 622.923 870.633 -247.710
2521 1058.229 1438.311 -380.082
2522 1421.256 1898.256 -477.000
2523 1777.383 2523.348 -745.965
2524 2524.497 3344.300 -819.803
2525 2965.012 3939.781 -974.769
2526 3137.775 4214.242 -1076.467
2527 3064.176 4303.742 -1239.566
2528 3458.237 4558.071 -1099.834
2529 3142.717 4368.748 -1226.031
2530 3216.900 4129.800 -912.900
2531 3397.739 4164.840 -767.101
2532 3839.862 4723.434 -883.572
2533 4069.886 5039.161 -969.275
2534 5029.460 5254.223 -224.763
2535 6402.827 6341.237 61.590
2536 6363.202 6962.823 -599.621
2537 6198.353 7097.117 -898.764
2538 6395.298 8222.111 -1826.813
2539 6473.178 8599.889 -2126.711
2540 6682.385 9153.212 -2470.827
2541 6734.634 9463.192 -2728.558
2542 7035.969 9477.638 -2441.669
2543 7054.938 9944.113 -2889.175
2544 7081.884 10405.073 -3323.189
2545 6977.557 10294.498 -3316.941
2546 6458.475 10917.264 -4458.789
2547 5965.771 10654.861 -4689.090

Bangkok bus service and passenger satisfaction

Currently, there are two main changes likely to occur in the Bangkok Mass Transit
Authority (BMTA):

• The BMTA has been slated for transfer to the authority of the Bangkok
Metropolitan Administration (BMA). This would reform the system in the
capital to resemble other major cities in which the municipal government
takes care of public transport rather than the central government. However,
BMTA employees have requested that their organization remain a state
enterprise.

14
 • Regarding fare adjustments, it is likely that, under the IMF bail-out package,
the government will have to abandon transport subsidies. Fares will then
reflect the actual costs.
• Passenger vans took away operators’ revenue. The government must deal
with them seriously.
• The BMTA is having a plan to modify of their buses to use natural gas.

Results

1) Most of the respondents expressed great satisfaction with the private air-conditioned
Micro-bus services. This suggests that riders consider quality as well as fare when
making travel decisions.
2) Riders consider quality as well as fare when making travel decisions.
3) The polled Bangkokians agreed with the proposed transfer of the BMTA to
municipal control, expressing the belief that services would thereby be upgraded.
4) Although there are about 2,671 mini-buses in Bangkok, only 1,400 are still
operating. The concessions of the rest have been terminated.
5) Mass Transit Authority (BMTA), approved a request by the Mini-Bus Operators'
Association to increase their fare rates from Bt 2.50 to 3.50, on condition that
service quality and conditions also be improved.
6) Problems cited concerning mini-buses included crowding, lack of ventilation, worn-
out, poorly maintained buses, reckless, impolite drivers, impolite conductors, and
failure to stop at required bus-stops.
7) After the fare increase, 45.5 percent of those polled said they would now be less
likely to use mini-buses and would probably hold out for BMTA services. However,
54.5 percent said they would continue to use mini-buses since they had no choice.
8) All Bangkok buses will get TVs, if the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA)
gets things its way.
9) Bangkok buses will carry English-language signs from next month on, the director
of the Bangkok Mass Transit.
10) By raising fares by Bt1, operators would still face losses.
11) the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority's launching of the women-only Lady Bus.
12) the BMTA said it would consider transferring more routes to private bus services
this year in a bid to reduce its accumulated debt of 20 billion baht.
13) plans to transfer the bus agency to the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration
(BMA) made little progress because of the BMTA's financial problems.
14) BMTA staff fear loss of jobs and welfare benefits and have called for the transfer to
be scrapped.
15) Operators of city and inter-provincial buses yesterday sought government
permission to increase their fares.
16) Bus operators had no other choice but to increase fares or stop their services.
17) The government has approved a new fare rise for public buses in Bangkok and
those running across provinces.
18) The new fare rise is based on a key condition that the local bus operators must
improve their services.

15
 5. Data Analysis and Result
Methodology
To support study framework above, methodology is implemented as the following:

Step 1 - gathering data relevant to BMTA business.

Step 2 - finding and priority setting effecting factors of BMTA financial balance.
Step 3 - data analysis of core factors contribute to BMTA financial balance.
Step 4 - develop model to predict consequences after bus fare adjustment.

Revenue report

Financial Status of BMTA 1977 - 2004

12000.000

10000.000
Cost (Million Baths)

8000.000

6000.000

4000.000

2000.000

0.000
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year

Revenues Profit (Loss)

Fig. 7 shows financial status of BMTA year 1977 – 2004.

This figure shows the deficit status of BMTA since 1977 to 2004. The shortage has started
from past accumulated until to at present, only at the year 1992, a small profit occurred that
caused from financial support from government in 1991.

The curve of revenue seems to be stable and then fall down at year 2002 to 2004, but the
expense (revenues plus profit (loss)) increase continuously. The evidence can conclude that
BMTA cannot both increase revenue and reduce expense.

16
 By this information, major revenues of BMTA come from the Air-conditioned buses and
regular buses as presented in Fig. 8, about 96 percent of total revenues. There are notable
that the revenue from coupon has vastly decrease when compare between this year (Oct’04-
Jul’05) and the year before (Oct’03-Sep’04) as shown in Fig.9.
1.2 Revenue
Total Revenues Oct04 - Aug05 from of coupon 1.3 Revenue from
0% Monthly ticket sales
1.1.2 Revenues from Air- 0%
conditioned buses
66%
1.4 Revenue from Joint Air-
conditioned buses
2%

1.5 Revenue from Joint Air-

conditioned Vans
1%
1.1.1 Revenues 1.6 Revenue
from regular buses from Mini Buses
30% 0%

1.7 Other Revenues

1%

1.1.1 Revenues from regular buses 1.1.2 Revenues from Air-conditioned buses
1.2 Revenue from of coupon 1.3 Revenue from Monthly ticket sales
1.4 Revenue from Joint Air-conditioned buses 1.5 Revenue from Joint Air-conditioned Vans
1.6 Revenue from Mini Buses 1.7 Other Revenues

Fig.8 shows total revenues October 2004 to August 2005.

Revenues of BMTA
Million Baths

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
D 3

5
3

04

04

05

5
04

04

05

05

5
3

04

05
-0

-0

-0

-0
-0

-0

-0

-0

-0
l-0

l-0
-0

-0
b-

p-

b-
n-

r-

n-

r-
n-

n-
ay

ay
ar

ar
ov

ov
ec

ec
ug
ct

ct
Ju

Ju
Ap

Ap
Ja

Fe

Se

Ja

Fe
Ju

Ju
O

O
M

M
M

M
N

D
A

1.1.1 Revenues from regular buses 1.1.2 Revenues from Air-conditioned buses
1.2 Revenue from of coupon

Fig. 9 shows revenue of BMTA.

17
Expense Report
2.10 Depreciation,
666.555, 7% Total Expenses Oct04 - Sep05
2.9 Interest 2.11 Other Expenses,
Expenses from 240.065, 3%
BMTA, 1,209.266,
13%
2.8 Value-added
2.1 Salaries and
Taxes, 238.889, 3%
Benefit, 3,351.522,
37%
2.7 Leasing of
premises, 100.897,
1%
2.4 Buses
Maintenance by
Contracts,
1,437.278, 16% 2.2 Fuel and Gases,
1,792.774, 20%

2.1 Salaries and Benefit 2.2 Fuel and Gases

2.3 Leasing of buses 2.4 Buses Maintenance by Contracts
2.5 Over Buses 's Kilomters Expenses 2.6 Buses Maintenance
2.7 Leasing of premises 2.8 Value-added Taxes
2.9 Interest Expenses from BMTA 2.10 Depreciation (from Operating)
2.11 Other Expenses
Fig. 10 shows expense report.

This graph shows that there are 5 descend main factors influence total expense namely
expense of salaries and benefits, expense of fuels and gases, expense of buses maintenance
by contract, interests expenditure subject to BMTA and depreciation costs, respectively.
Million Baths
Comparison Expenses of BMTA Oct03 - Sep05
1200
2.8 Value-added Taxes
2.11 Other Expenses 2.10 Depreciation
2.7 Leasing of premises (from Operating)
1000

2.9 Interest Expenses

800
from BMTA

2.4 Buses Maintenance

600
by Contracts
2.3 Leasing of buses
2.2 Fuel and Gases
400

200 2.1 Salaries and Benefit

0
Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul-
03 03 03 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 05

2.1 Salaries and Benefit 2.2 Fuel and Gases 2.3 Leasing of buses
2.4 Buses Maintenance by Contracts 2.7 Leasing of premises 2.8 Value-added Taxes
2.9 Interest Expenses from BMTA 2.10 Depreciation (from Operating) 2.11 Other Expenses

Fig. 11 shows comparison expense.

This graph depicts comparison expenses of BMTA from October 2003 to July 2005. There
are three interested factor relevant to BMTA expenses. First, cost of buses leasing is
decreased dramatically at October 2004. After this period, there is cost of depreciation is
emerged and tends to increase gradually. Second, at period November 2004, cost of salaries

18
and benefits increased which contributed to increase total expenditures. Finally, at February
2005, fuels and gases expenses are increased which stimulated total expenses too.

In fact, BMTA financial balance is not surplus for along time. Through, cost of fuels and
gases is decreased to normal level. it will minute effect to deficit. In the other hand, if cost
of fuels and benefits is increased exponentially, it will contribute to dramatically increase
deficit. To relieve deficit, only increasing revenue should be considered due to other factors
are difficult to deal with. Next section is about parameters effects to increasing revenue and
reducing loss.

2.1 Salaries and Benefit

2.1.11 Retirement
2.1.10 Welfare allowance
2.1.9 Commission of 6% 5%
ticket agency
0% 2.1.12 Providen Fund
2%
2.1.8 Rate of promotion
4%

2.1.7 allowance premium

4%

2.1.5 Holiday
compensated
2%
2.1.1 Salaries and hire
cost
2.1.2 Hire cost by contract 76%
0%
2.1.3 Board Premium
0%
2.1.4 Overtime cost
1%
2.1.1 Salaries and hire cost 2.1.2 Hire cost by contract 2.1.3 Board Premium
2.1.4 Overtime cost 2.1.5 Holiday compensated 2.1.6 Work premium
2.1.7 allowance premium 2.1.8 Rate of promotion 2.1.9 Commission of ticket agency
2.1.10 Welfare 2.1.11 Retirement allowance 2.1.12 Providen Fund

Fig. 12 shows salaries and Benefits.

The most impact of total expense is cost of salary. It is fixed cost about 76 percent. To
improve deficit, this factor must be focused on.

BMTA has ever adjusted bus fare 4 times during year October 2003 to July 2005. Due to
the other factors are difficult to implement.

19
 Changing of Factors influence to Revenues ( /bus/day)
% change from mean value

30.00
Airbus rise every 4 km. each 2 baths Red bus rise up from 5 to 6
baths 4
25.00
2 Red bus rise up from 4 to 5 3
1 baths
20.00

Red bus rise up from 3.50 to 4

15.00
baths

10.00

5.00

0.00

-5.00

-10.00

-15.00
Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul-
03 03 03 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 05

Total Revenues from fares Total trip (trips) kilometers

Fuel (liters) Gas (Q.M.) Total tickets
Oil price (baths/L) Index of Ticket price

Fig. 13 shows factors influence to revenues.

According to bus fare adjustment, revenue can be derived as the following formula.

Revenue from fare = [Tickets / trip / day]x [Trip / bus / day]x[Current fare]x[Serviced bus /
day ]x[days ]

Total revenue is from bus fares 96 percent. The formula above illustrates to understand
main components of fare. The main factors of bus fare are Tickets/trep/day, Trip/bus/day,
and Current fare. Number of services bus is nearly constant.
Before April 2005, almost factors are not very fluctuated except the decreasing of number
of tickets if only there are twice of bus fare adjustments on January 2004 and April 2004.
The third and last fare adjustment is about April 2005 and June 2005 respectively. For the
third adjustment, this period was during summer, normally total tickets or passengers had
decreased on April and increased on May. It is clear that revenue is increased dramatically
against the total tickets are decreased for the last fare adjustment. The last two fare
adjustment gain sharply revenue through tickets are decreased. This information implies
that some passengers decided to get service from other transport provider. It is noticeable
that after increasing of oil price, gas consumption is vastly increased.

20
 รถโดยสาร ขสมก.

1400
1,224
1,161
1200 1,069 1,029
1000 938

800
ลานคน
600
400
200
0
2540 2541 2542 2543 2544

Fig. 14 shows passengers of BMTA from 2540 – 2544.

จํานวนรถยนตนังสวนบุคคลที
่ จดทะเบียน
่

3000
2500
2000
พันตัน

1500
1000
500
0
2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545

รถยนตนังสวนบุคคล
่ ไมเกิน 7 คน ่ วนบุคคล เกิน 7 คน
รถยนตนังส

Fig. 15 shows a number of private cars from 2540 – 2545.

Table 11 shows result of satisfaction.

No. Vehicle that always be used Percentage
1. Bus(BMTA), Taxi, car service 51.1
2. Private car 36.7
3. Taxi Motorcycle 23.6
4. Walking 9.5
5. Bicycle 3.3
6. Etc. (Boat, Train, Mass rapid transit.) 3.6
Source: http://www.eppo.go.th/nepc/poll-ABAC-Report.html

Fig. 14 shows a number of passengers of BMTA services between year 2540 to 2544. Fig.
15 shows a number of private cars between year 2540 to 2545. During these year there are
3 times of fare adjustments. This evidence states that increasing bus fare influences to
decreasing number of passengers. There are many options which passengers can select such
as private cars, taxis, taxis motorcycle, vans, and sky-train.

21
 Percent Factors of Fuel Expenses
% of Total value

7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00 4

3
3.00
2
1

2.00

1.00
Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul-04 Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul-05
03 03 03 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05

Total Revenues from fares Total trip (trips) kilometers

Fuel (liters) Gas (Q.M.) Total tickets
2.2 Fuel and Gases Oil price (Scale 1:10) Index of Ticket price

Fig. 16 shows percent factors of fuel expenses.

Fuel expenses = [Serviced bus / day]x[kilometer/bus/day]x[Fuel price/liter]x[days] /

[Fuel consumption rate km./liter]

Fuel expenses are about 20 percents of total expenses that are lower than salaries and
benefits expenses. There are 3 main physical factors influence to fuel expenses such as
kilometer/bus/day, fuel price/liter and fuel consumption rate km/liter. Before March 2005,
fuel expenses are small fluctuant, after that fuel prices have continuously increased starting
from February 2005 and can make vastly increasing of fuel expenses. Other factors such as
the kilometers travel and fuel consumption rate are quite stable.

6.Actual Loss from each types of buses for maximum case on

May'05 ( / bus / day)
EURO II 500, 46, 0%
EURO II 797, 797, 7%

Long Airbus, -1,612, 14% Cream-red, -3,252, 27%

NGV bus, 971, 8%

Ordinary Airbus, 847, 7%

Rent bus, -4,306, 37%

Cream-red Rent bus Ordinary Airbus NGV bus Long Airbus EURO II 797 EURO II 500

Fig. 17 shows actual loss from each type of buses.

22
This graph shows loss which are caused by each type of buses. It is derived on condition
that the maximum fare is met. Mostly of loss is from regular buses (cream-red and rent
bus). This information implies that reducing regular buses and increasing air-conditioned
buses should be implemented.
Million bahts Comparison revenus before - after increasing bus fare

700.000

600.000

500.000

400.000

300.000

200.000

100.000

0.000
(1) May 04 (2)Apr 04 (3) May 05 (4) Jul 04 (5) Jun 05 After at 2nd

Revenues from regular Bus Revenues from Airbus Total Revenues

Fig. 18 shows the comparison of revenues before and after bus fares adjustment.

Comparison number of passenger before-after increasing bus fare

million persons
63.292

70
61.449
60.294

59.946
58.435
54.367

60

50
36.656

35.316
34.909

34.392
32.922

40
29.945

26.636

26.133
25.513

25.554
25.385

24.422

30

20

10

0
(1) May 04 (2)Apr 04 (3) May 05 (4) Jul 04 (5) Jun 05 (6) Jul 05

Passengers of regular bus Passengers of Airbus Total Passengers

Fig. 19 shows the comparison of number of passenger before and after bus fares
adjustment.

From Fig. 18 and 19, it is the first time of bus fares adjustment. The comparison is made on
the same period but different year. It is clear that the revenue is increased apparently but a
number of passengers are changed a little bit.

23
After first bus fares adjustment by April 2005, the revenue is creased that causes by
revenue from regular buses.

The second time of bus fares adjustment, the comparison is made on the same month but
different year. It is measured during July. This graph shows that every types of revenues
are increased. A number of passengers are decreased.

After the second bus fares adjustment after June 2005, revenues are increased. A number of
passengers are decreased.

In conclusion, decreasing of passengers is not contributed to increasing revenues.

Study Framework
Strategies to tackle major factors of transport that cause environmental problems were
identified. Transport leads to environmental degradation because: (1) travel demand
increases, resulting in longer and more frequent trips due to economic development and
urban sprawl; (2) use of automobiles increases to meet the travel demand since the supply
of alternatives to automobile use such as public transportation is not sufficient and/or
people prefer automobiles to public transport; and (3) each vehicle emits significant
volumes of air pollutants and CO2. To address those factors, three strategies, namely
reducing transport demand, increasing public transport share, and reducing emissions from
vehicles, were chosen, as shown in Fig. 20.

Reducing Transport Demand

Trip Frequency ^

Trip Length ^
Economic ^ Vehicle Environmental
Kilometers
Traveled ^
Burden ^

Urban ^ Energy
Population Consumption

Vehicle Environmental
Ownership Air polluton
burden
Usage ^ from each vehicle
Urban sprawl Global warming
Share of
public transport
Reducing Emission From
Vehicles

Increasing Pubic Transport

Share

Fig.20 shows study framework.

Fig. 20 shows factors of environmental burden due to transport related activities and
strategies.

24
 Table.12. Show Emission (g/km) of each type of Diesel vehicle (March 2004).

AS the trip length or distances are increase, pollutant such as carbon dioxide, carbon mono
xide, particulate matter and hydrocarbon compound are increase by the value as be shown i
n Table 21. The buses of BMTA are HDDV or Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle type that emit po
llutant quite high and lower fuel efficiency than LDDV or Light Duty Diesel Vehicle type. I
n practice, during traffic jam the distance are not increase but there are pollutant still be emi
tted from buses.

Modeling

Refer to methodology investigates major factors of transport that cause economic and
environmental problems. This model is developed to predict the profits. These are major
concerned factors: oil price, trip frequencies, trip lengths, total tickets, fuel consumption,
and price of ticket. Linear regression analysis is used as shown in formula.

Profit (Loss) = -2.26x109 + 87,497,629x[7] + 7,080,528x[6] - 10,458,111x[5] +

965,298x[4] - 10,990,537x[3] + 42,589,629x[2]

The regression equation is

Profit-1 unit = -2.26E+09 +87497629 Trip + 7080528 KM. -10458111 FUEL
+ 965298 T.Ticket -10990537 Oil price (baths/L)
+42589629 Ticket price

Predictor Coef SE Coef T P

Constant -2256948267 2799096859 -0.81 0.433
Trips 87497629 1481806144 0.06 0.954
Kilometers 7080528 50324485 0.14 0.890
FUEL -10458111 30390449 -0.34 0.736
Total Ticket 965298 1304452 0.74 0.471
Oil price -10990537 74755124 -0.15 0.885
Ticket price 42589629 209335923 0.20 0.842

S = 112707703 R-Sq = 13.7% R-Sq(adj) = 0.0%

25
 Table 13 Major concerned parameters for regression analysis.

1 Trend Analysis for Profit-1 (baht)

2 Trend Analysis for Ticket price (baht)
3 Trend Analysis for Oil price (baht/liter)
4 Trend Analysis for Total Ticket
5 Trend Analysis for Fuel consumption (liter/month)
6 Trend Analysis for trip length (km.)
7 Trend Analysis for trip frequency

According to linear regression formula, coefficient is indicator of dominant factor for profit
(loss). For example, trip frequencies are the first major factor contributes to profit (loss).
Bus fare is the second best. Fig.21 shows the better profit of BMTA after bus fares
adjustment.
Regression Analysis of Profit(Loss) of BMTA
Baths

-200,000,000

-240,000,000

-280,000,000

-320,000,000

-360,000,000

-400,000,000

-440,000,000
Oct-03

Dec-03

Feb-04

Apr-04

Jun-04

Aug-04

Oct-04

Dec-04

Feb-05

Apr-05

Jun-05

Aug-05

Oct-05

Dec-05

Feb-06

Apr-06

Jun-06

Aug-06

Oct-06

Dec-06

Feb-07

Apr-07

Jun-07

Aug-07

Oct-07

Predicted Profit

Fig. 21 shows linear regression analysis of profit (loss) of BMTA.

Economic Scenario analysis

First scenario: factor is oil price.

Second scenario: factor is trip frequencies.
Third scenario: factor is bus fare.

26
 Regression Analysis of Profit(Loss) of BMTA
Baths

-200,000,000

-240,000,000

-280,000,000

-320,000,000

-360,000,000

-400,000,000

-440,000,000
Oct-03

Dec-03

Feb-04

Apr-04

Jun-04

Aug-04

Oct-04

Dec-04

Feb-05

Apr-05

Jun-05

Aug-05

Oct-05

Dec-05

Feb-06

Apr-06

Jun-06

Aug-06

Oct-06

Dec-06

Feb-07

Apr-07

Jun-07

Aug-07

Oct-07
Predicted Profit Oil price scenario Trip frequency scenario Bus fare scenario

Fig. 22 shows regression analysis of profit (loss).

This graph shows result from model. Each factor is incremented one unit. First scenario,
the assumption is obtained that oil price tends to increase. Therefore, unit of price is
incremented one baht. Second scenario, trip is increased one round per bus per day. Third
scenario, bus fare is incremented one baht.
From Fig. 22, it can be seen that trip frequencies is the most impact to profit (loss) that can
improve deficit of BMTA faster than fare adjustment. The increasing of trip frequency only
3 trips/bus/day that enough to improve deficit to be surplus within 6 years. The increasing
rate of oil price can do small impact to profit (loss) but if there is enormously increasing of
oil price, the deficit become worse.

Environmental Scenario Analysis

First scenario: Trip length per Trip frequency ratio from normal status
Second scenario: Trip length per Trip frequency ratio as increasing 1 unit trip frequency.
Third scenario: Trip length per Trip frequency ratio as decreasing 1 unit trip length.

Correlations: Trip, KM.

Pearson correlation of Trip and KM. = 0.937
P-Value = 0.000
Regression Analysis: KM. versus Trip
The regression equation is
KM. = - 11.8 + 27.9 Trip
Predictor Coef SE Coef T P
Constant -11.82 20.86 -0.57 0.577

27
 Fig 23 Show result of regression analysis.
Regression analysis of Kilometer per Trip (/buses/day)

27

26.9

26.8

26.7
kilometers / trips

26.6
scenario 1
26.5 scenario 2
scenario 3
26.4

26.3

26.2

26.1

26
ec 3
F e 03

Ap 4
Ju 4
A u 04

O 4
D 4
F e 04
Ap 5
Ju 5
A u 05

O 5
D 5
F e 05

Ap 6
Ju 6
A u 06

O 6
D 6
F e 06

Ap 7
Ju 7
A u 07

O 7
7
-0

r-0

0
-0

r-0

0
-0

r-0

0
-0

r-0

0
-0
0

0
-

n-
g-

n-
g-

n-
g-

n-
g-
b-

b-

b-

b-
ct

ct

ct

ct

ct
ec

ec

ec
O
D

Fig 23 Show result of regression analysis.

The pollutant is depends on distance or trip frequency of vehicle as in grams per kilometer.
From the increasing of trip frequency can increase trip length, the trip frequency can
increase pollutant too. Though increasing of trip frequency can improve deficit of BMTA
but it can impact to environment too.
By the higher service efficiency and higher fuel efficiency can relieve this problem as be
presented in the third scenario. This direction of strategy could improve business of BMTA
by the least impact to environment.

28
 6. Conclusions

% change from Consequences from increasing of Fuel price (physical factors)

mean value
40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00

-10.00

-20.00
Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05
fuel price baht/L (avg16.24) Trip(avg9trip/bus/day)
Kilometers(242.9km/bus/day) Fuel consumed (liters)(avg115.7L/bus/day)
GAS (Q.M.)(avg189.8Q.M./bus/day) TotalTicket(avg582.5T/bus/day)
Ticket price index

Fig. 24 shows consequence due to rising fuel price I.

Bus fares adjustment is needed due to increasing oil price. After the last bus fares
adjustment which is shown on Fig. 24, total tickets are decreased and total revenues are
increased.

Case of decreasing tickets, it implied that passengers prefer quality service from other
transport services such as private car, vans, taxis, motorcycle taxis. As a result, emission is
increased.
% change from
mean value Consequences from increasing of Fuel price(economic factors)

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00

-10.00

-20.00
Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05

fuel price baht/L (avg16.24) Fuel Cost (baths) (avg 5.9Mb/day)

Total Revenues (Bahts/day)(avg16Mb) Total Expenses (Bahts/day)(avg30Mb)
Loss (Bahts/day)(avg13Mb) Total Revenues fare (Bahts)(avg4.8kb/bus/day)
Ticket price index

Fig. 25 shows consequence due to rising fuel price II.

29
By February 2005, oil price has taken off. It effects directly on high fuel cost and total
expense. This effect forces to increase bus fares in order to relieve deficit and continue
business.
By March 2005, fuel price is sharply increased. It contributes to higher loss due to fuel cost
is increased. Mostly economic factors are quite fluctuating but for physical factor such as
total tickets tend to stationary. It is stated that passengers still use bus services with higher
cost of fare. Passengers must spend more money on traveling. This cost could hard hit
expenditure of the poor. As a result, the poor will be poorer.

Bus fare adjustment is not only strategy to relieve deficit but also management such as trip
frequency improvement, trip length optimizing, and organization management. From the
results of regression analysis show that deficit status of BMTA trend to be relieved and get
surplus in finally. This is because of increasing of bus fare. As the business of BMTA trend
to be surplus, the people or passengers become loser. Mostly people use service of BMTA
is poor there for, the fare adjustment is limited. Improvement of trip frequency and trip
length optimizing are interesting. From results of scenario show that trip frequency can
improve deficit of BMTA faster than fare adjustment. To increase trip frequency there are
many ways to deal both relieve deficit of BMTA and people can get benefit. The efficiency
of transportation is limited by traffic jam. The longer distance traveling means more time
traveling and lower trip frequency. To increasing trip frequency, the lesser traffic jam and
the shorter trip length are required but have to be depended on the limitation of both BMTA
and people who pay for it.

7. Discussions
This section contains discussions and suggestions. It will be explained for each part of
stakeholders: BMTA, government, passengers, pedestrians, bus operators, and Thai people
as whole. The main topic will focus on benefits and losses.

1) BMTA and Government

Apparently, BMTA gets the most benefits. BMTA can make a lot of money from authorized
business. There are many types of revenues such as tickets, advertisement, inter-
government transfer, and private investment.

BMTA is a government business. In the other word, government runs his business by give
authorize to agencies. After bus fares adjustment, BMTA gains more money which has
stated by our model. Financial balance is better. In fact, the government till has been
subsiding to BMTA and take care for this business.

Where has the money gone? Money from bus fare adjustment is consumed in BMTA. The
main expenditure is cost of salaries and benefits. It implies that employees get the most
benefits.

What are welfares developments? There are few welfare that are provided by BMTA for
Thai people as a whole. BMTA has now provided “Fare Exemptions and Concessions”,
“Half-Price Concessions”, “web site”, and “call center 184”. By our expectation, welfares
should better than these.
Thai people should be provided good quality of services, safely, more comfortable on the
bus, fast travel with low cost, better air quality, rich of information, and availability.

30
2) Bus Operator
They are looser or gainer?
As the same status with BMTA, bus operators will be gainer after increasing current fare.
They work with more limited conditions which are regulated by BMTA. In fact, they must
pay for BMTA by contract. In this case, it means that they have less money. Their situations
are risks if they have to pay money for both BMTA and fuels at the same time without fare
adjustment. They could be a loser.

From Fig xx, it shows that bus operators pay a lot of money for BMTA compare to other
types of revenues.
After fare adjustment, it is clear that a number of passengers are decreasing. If bus services
are the same level of quality, it could bring lesser passengers. As a result, they could be a
loser in case of can get lesser revenues in long term.
Million baths Revenues of BMTA

14.000

12.000

10.000

8.000

6.000

4.000

2.000

0.000
Oct-47 Nov-47 Dec-47 Jan-48 Feb-48 Mar-48 Apr-48 May-48 Jun-48 Jul-48

-2.000

1.2 Revenue from of coupon 1.3 Revenue from Monthly ticket sales 1.4 Revenue from Joint Air-conditioned buses
1.5 Revenue from Joint Air-conditioned Vans 1.6 Revenue from Mini Buses 1.7 Other Revenues

3) Passengers
Looser or Gainer?
Passengers spend much money for their tickets with the same level of services and they
have no choices. Mostly passengers are poor to middle class of people. If they spend higher
cost for traveling, it means they have no any opportunity to get a better quality of life. It
can state that they are loser and they have no opportunity to be a gainer.

31
4) Thai People as a whole
It is beneficially?
Most of the people are middle class family. After fare adjustment, it can imply that a
number of vehicles on the road are increasing. More vehicles emit more pollutants. Thai
people get loss.
In case of BMTA gets more revenues, government would not subsidy for BMTA any more.
Thai government would spend more money for improving road and relevant facilities. Thai
people would be provided good services. They would get more benefits.

5) Pedestrians
Increment or decrement?
After fare adjustment, it can imply that a number of pedestrians would be increase from the
decreasing passengers. Someone cannot afford for ticket. The best choice for them is on
foot. In the other hand, if they can meet the cost for other transportation services, a number
of pedestrians would be decrease. In conclusion, pedestrians would get loss that cause by
pollution. And so they could get hurt from accident on the road.

32
 8. References

[1] BMTA. Accessed on 1 August 2005<http://www.bmta.co.th/>

[2] Office of policy and plan, Analysis and assessment division. BMTA strategic master
plan: Year. 2002-2006.
[3] BMTA Executive Summary on July 2005.
[4] Pollution Control Department. Accessed on 1 August 2005<http://www.pcd.go.th/>

33