Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: China’s Grey
Zone Tactics
Carlyle A. Thayer
July 23, 2019

We request your assessment of China’s gray zone tactics.

Q1. Could you please analyze some aspects of the China's Gray Zone tactics in the
South China Sea, especially the threats that they could pose to the region?
ANSWER: The term “grey zone’ is loosely used by scholars and analysts to refer to
competition or even confrontation between two or more states that falls between
peace and armed conflict.
States like China that employ grey zone tactics use forces disguised so that they do not
appear to be regular armed forces. China organizes some of its fishing fleet into
maritime militia groups. Its members can appear as ordinary fishermen one moment
and uniformed paramilitary members the next. China also uses its maritime law
enforcement agencies, largely regrouped into the China Coast Guard, to advance its
sovereignty claims over the South China Sea.
Grey zone tactics form part of a state’s larger strategy to secure some particular
objective. In China’s case grey zone tactics serve many purposes such patrolling,
establishing a presence, resupply, reconnaissance, surveillance, search and rescue,
and harassment of foreign oil exploration (cable cutting) and resupply vessels. This
year the maritime militia was implicated in using lasers to interfere with the night
time operations of Australian military aircraft flying over the South China Sea.
Another purpose is to challenge sovereignty claims by littoral states. China
deliberately sends its fishermen mixed with maritime militia into Vietnam’s Exclusive
Economic Zone. These fishermen/militia illegally take Vietnam’s fish and other marine
resources, rob Vietnamese fishermen of their catch and equipment, ram and damage
or sink Vietnamese fishing boats and chase away Vietnamese fishermen. This year
hundreds of Chinese fishing boats including maritime militia concentrated in the
waters around the Philippines Thitu (Pagasa) island.
The China Coast Guard, ostensibly a civilian agency but whose ships are armed and
embark helicopters, intervened to protect Chinese illegally fishing in Vietnam’s
waters. A second purpose in using the China Coast Guard is a tactic designed to deter
the Vietnam Navy from intervening.
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Grey zone tactics also include the use of oil exploration vessels, such as the Hai Yang
Shi You 981, and survey ships, such as the Haiyang Dizhi 8, to conduct commercial
operations in Vietnam’s EEZ to challenge Vietnam’s sovereign jurisdiction.
China’s grey zone tactics undermine international norms and international law that
regulate to some extent state behaviour. This risks turning a rules-based order into
the “law of the jungle” or might makes right.
China’s use of grey zone tactics will inevitably cause regional states to take counter-
measures and push back. This carries the risk that confrontations at sea will escalate
into armed violence and loss of life.
Q2. Is there any way that U.S. and other countries can counter China's gray zone tactics
in the South China Sea?
ANSWER: China’s use of grey zone tactics will inevitably draw in outside major powers
who have an interest in a peaceful, safe and secure South China Sea. This is already
taking place with Japan, the United States and other states providing assistance in
capacity-building and maritime domain awareness for the coast guards of littoral
states.
The U.S. and other major powers can bring political and diplomatic pressure to bear
on China, such as the recent statement by the U.S. Department of State that “China
should cease its bullying behavior and refrain from engaging in this type of provocative
and destabilizing activity.”
A senior U.S. admiral has stated it would respond to an armed attack by China’s
maritime militia in the same as a military attack.
The major powers can raise China’s grey zone tactics in all relevant multilateral fora
particularly those under the ASEAN umbrella.
Q3. Some experts say that Iran is also using gray zone tactics in the Middle East to
counter the U.S. Could you describe the similarities and differences between the
tactics used by Iran and China?
ANSWER: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and China’s maritime militia
operate in different geographical environments and their tactics vary accordingly. The
Persian Gulf is relatively restricted while the South China Sea is a comparatively open
maritime space.
Geopolitical alignments in the Middle East and Southeast Asia differ. There is no
equivalent of pro-American Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates in Southeast Asia.
Thailand and the Philippines are nominal U.S. allies at best without the financial clout
of Saudi Arabia.
The IRGC comprises land, air and naval components; it also oversees volunteer militia
groups. The IRGC uses small boats, drones, helicopters, and modern jet fighters in
operations over the Persian Gulf.
The basic similarity between the two forces is the use of swarming tactics or the
mobilization of large number of small armed boats to confront an adversary.
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This year the IRGC has been implicated in limpet mines of oil tankers passing through
the region and successful helicopter assault on a British flagged oil carrier. The tactics
of China’s maritime militia are more basic.

Media Identification: The University of New South Wales, Canberra or The University
of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, ”South China Sea: China’s Grey Zone Tactics,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 23, 2019. All background briefs are posted
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