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studies the likelihood of occurrence of random events in order to predict the behavior of defined
systems.
Starting with this definition, it would (probably :-) be right to conclude that the Probability
Theory, being a branch of Mathematics, is an exact, deductive science that studies uncertain
quantities related to random events. This might seem to be a strange marriage of mathematical
certainty and uncertainty of randomness. On a second thought, though, most people will agree
that a newly conceived baby has a 50-50 chance (exact but, likely, inaccurate estimate) to be, for
example, a girl or a boy, for that matter.
Interestingly, a recent book by Marilyn vos Savant dealing with people's perception of
probability and statistics is titled The Power of Logical Thinking. My first problems will be
drawn from this book.
As with other mathematical problems, it's often helpful to experiment with a problem in order to
gain an insight as to what the correct answer might be. By necessity, probabilistic experiments
require computer simulation of random events. It must sound as an oxymoron - a computer (i.e.,
deterministic device) producing random events - numbers, in our case, to be exact. See, if you
can convince yourself that your computer can credibly handle this task also. A knowledgeable
reader would, probably, note that this is a program (albeit deterministic) and not the computer
that does the random number simulation. That's right. It's me and not your computer to blame if
the simulation below does not exactly produce random numbers.
When you press the "Start" button below, the program will start random selection. Every second
it will pick up one of the three numbers - 1, 2, or 3. You can terminate the process anytime by
pressing the "Stop" button. Frequencies of selections appear in the corresponding input boxes.
Do they look random?
Top of
Form
Bottom 2 3
of Form
1
0 0 0
T
o
p
o
f
F
o
r
m
B
o
t
t
o
m
o
f
F
o
r
m
Remark
Actually, the process of selection includes no selection at all. As a mathematician Robert
Coveyou from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has said, The generation of random numbers
is too important to be left to chance. Instead, I have a function that is invoked every second.
Each time it's invoked, it produces one of the three 1, 2, 3 numbers. This is how the function
works.
I start with an integer seed = 0. When a new random number is needed, the seed is replaced with
the result of the following operation
seed = (7621 × seed + 1) mod 9999
In other words, in order to get a new value of seed, multiply the old value by 7621, add 1, and,
finally, take the result modulo 9999. Now, assume, as in the example above, we need a random
selection from the triple 1, 2, 3. That is, we seek a random integer n satisfying 1 ≤ n ≤ 3. The
formula is
n = [3 × seed/9999] + 1.
Taking it step by step, dividing seed by 9999 produces a nonnegative real number between 0 and
1. This times 3 gives a real number between 0 and 3. Brackets reduce the latter to the nearest
integer which is not greater than the number itself. The result is a nonnegative integer that is less
than 3. Adding 1 makes it one of the three 1, 2, or 3.
Teaching activities
Introduction
Hold up a 1-6 dice. Tell the class you are going to throw the dice 30 times and see how many
times each number is rolled. Draw a tally chart ready for the results and ask the class if they can
guess. Choose five children to roll the dice 6 times and record the results. Were they as
expected? Explain that all the numbers have an equal chance of being rolled. Could a 7 be
rolled? How likely is this? Why? Write the following probability terms down on the board or a
poster for revision: impossible, unlikely, equal chance, likely, certain. Show children the
coloured sticker dice. Using the probability terms on the board, ask children questions. What are
the chances of rolling a yellow (unlikely)? What are the chances of rolling a red (likely)? What
are the chances of rolling a purple (impossible)?.
Activity
Display the online activity on the class whiteboard. Demonstrate the first part of the activity and
the show the children how to use the lever on the probability machine. Small groups or pairs can
then work through the remainder of the activity on the class computers. While awaiting their
turn, remaining groups can take a set of number cards 1-10, put them in a bag, and then draw and
replace a card 30 times. They should draw up a tally chart of their results. Then convert this to a
tally chart of odd and even numbers. What are the chances of drawing a 5 (1 in 10 or one tenth)?
How many 5s do they predict should be drawn (3)? Is this the case? What are the chances of
drawing an odd number (1 in 2 or one half). How many odd numbers do they predict should be
drawn (15). Is this the case?.
Plenary
Ask a pair of children to talk to the class about their number card tally charts and results. Was it
as they expected?
Extension
Children can work through the online quiz or complete the Worksheet.
Homework
Ask children to roll a 1-6 dice 50 times. What patterns do they notice? What are the chances of
drawing an odd number? An even number? A multiple of 4? A multiple of 2?
I have seen this problem on the forums, and here are some of the best solutions (in
my opinion):
1. At the beginning, the prisoners select a leader. Whenever a person (with the
exception of the leader) comes into a room, he turns the lights on (but he
does this only once). If the lights are already on, he does nothing. When the
leader goes into the room, he turns off the lights. When he will have turned
off the lights 99 times, he is 100% sure that everyone has been in the room.
2. wait 3 years, and with a great probability say that everyone has been in the
room.
Does anyone know The optimal solution???
I have taken this problem from the www.ocf.berkeley.edu site, but I believe
that you can find it on many others.
As it happened, I was wrong. This may be immediately surmised from Stuart Anderson's
response. In my wonderment I contacted Peter Winkler who kindly set things straight for me.
The formulation in his book is somewhat different, but this difference proves to be of major
significance:
Each of n prisoners will be sent alone into a certain room, infinitely often, but in
some arbitrary order determined by their jailer. The prisoners have a chance to
confer in advance, but once the visits begin, their only means of communication will
be via a light in the room which they can turn on or off. Help them design a protocol
which will ensure that some prisoner will eventually be able to deduce that everyone
has visited the room.
N
Example:
At a car park there are 100 vehicles, 60 of which are cars, 30 are vans and the remainder are
lorries. If every vehicle is equally likely to leave, find the probability of:
a) van leaving first.
b) lorry leaving first.
c) car leaving second if either a lorry or van had left first.
Solution:
a) Let S be the sample space and A be the event of a van leaving first.
n(S) = 100
n(A) = 30
Probability of a van leaving first:
c) If either a lorry or van had left first, then there would be 99 vehicles remaining, 60 of which
are cars. Let T be the sample space and C be the event of a car leaving.
n(T) = 99
n(C) = 60
Probability of a car leaving after a lorry or van has left:
Example:
A survey was taken on 30 classes at a school to find the total number of left-handed students in
each class. The table below shows the results:
No. of left-handed
0 1 2 3 4 5
students
Frequency (no. of
1 2 5 12 8 2
classes)
A class was selected at random.
a) Find the probability that the class has 2 left-handed students.
b) What is the probability that the class has at least 3 left-handed students?
c) Given that the total number of students in the 30 classes is 960, find the probability that a
student randomly chosen from these 30 classes is left-handed.
Solution:
a) Let S be the sample space and
A be the event of a class having 2 left-handed students.
n(S) = 30
n(A) = 5
Solution:
Let 2x be the length of the square.
Area of square = 2x × 2x = 4x 2
Drawing Marbles
A jar contains two red marbles, three blue marbles, and four green
marbles. Niki draws one marble from the jar, and then Tom draws a
marble from those remaining. What is the probablity that Niki draws a
green marble and Tom draws a blue marble? Express your answer as a
common fraction.
Hi Kayla!
One useful rule is that to find a basic probability, with all outcomes
equally likely, we make a fraction like this:
For example, suppose we have a jar with 4 red marbles and 6 blue. We
want to find the probability of drawing a red one at random. So our
event is "drawing a red marble." The probability of this is:
Now suppose we have 2 events. Let's say that Niki is going to draw 1
marble, and then Tom is going to draw one from the remaining marbles.
What is the probability that Niki gets a blue one? What is the
probability that Tom gets a red one?
Again, we use our fraction. When Niki draws, there are 10 marbles in
the jar, of which 6 are blue, so her probability of drawing a blue is
6/10 or 3/5. After she draws, it is Tom's turn. But now there are
only 9 marbles left. 4 of these are red, so his probability of
drawing a red marble is 4/9.
But, suppose we want to know the probability of the ONE event: "Niki
draws a blue marble AND Tom draws a red one." It seems like the same
question, but it isn't. The reason is that now we have more than one
way this could happen. We could have:
These are the only 4 possibilities. They are not all equally likely,
however. When we have ONE event which is made up of two separate
events with the word AND, we multiply the individual probabilities to
get the answer.
You should be able to do your problem, now. I got a bit lengthy here,
since I can't tell from your question if it's meant to be just 1 event
with an "and." I think that it is. But, if not, you can also figure
out just the individual probabilities for the two marble draws, as
well.
Gambler's Fallacy
Date: 03/14/2003 at 14:13:18
From: Kevin
Subject: Lottery: Betting same number vs randomly selecting a number.
Hello Kevin,
You are correct. If you have the computer randomly select a different
set of 5 numbers to bet on every day, and your friend selects the same
set of numbers to bet on every day, then you both have exactly the
same probability of winning.
On the drawing day, ONE ticket is pulled from the hat. It is equally
likely to be any of the C(49,5) tickets in the hat. (There would be
1,906,884 tickets in the hat in this case.)
Since both you and your friend have only ONE ticket in the hat, you
both have the same chance of winning.
On the next drawing day for the lottery, ALL the tickets are replaced.
Each lottery draw is an event independent of the others. That is to
say, the probability of any combination winning today has absolutely
NO effect on the probability of that or any other combination winning
tomorrow. Each and every draw is totally independent of the others.
The reason your friend believes that he has a better chance of winning
with the same set of numbers is probably due to something called the
"gambler's fallacy." This idea is that the longer the lottery goes
without your friend's "special" set of numbers coming up, the more
likely it is to come up in the future. The same fallacy is believed by
a lot of people about slot machines in gambling casinos. They hunt for
which slot hasn't paid in a while, thinking that that slot is more
likely to pay out. But, as the name says, this is a fallacy; pure
nonsense. A pull of the slot machine's handle, like the lottery draw,
is completely independent of previous pulls. The slot machine has no
memory of what has come before, and neither has the lottery. You might
play a slot machine for 2 weeks without hitting the big jackpot, and
someone else can walk in and hit it in the first 5 minutes of play.
People wrongly attribute that to "it was ready to pay out." In
reality, it's just luck. That's why they call it gambling. :)
"You flip a fair coin 20 times in a row and it comes up heads every
single time. You flip the coin one more time. What is the probability
of tails on this last flip?"
Most people will respond that the chance of tails is now very high.
(Ask your friend and see what he says.) However, the true answer is
that the probability is 1/2. It's 1/2 on EVERY flip, no matter what
results came before. Like the slot machine and the lottery, the coin
has no memory.
This is my first time to your site and I find it very interesting and
enjoyable. I am puzzled by one symbol of typing math. What does the
upper case letter C mean? Like in (2 C 1) (3 C 1) / (47 C 2) = 6/1081.
I can't figure it out and before I get any more frustrated I thought
I'd better write to you.
The symbol nCr stands for the number of combinations of r things that
can be formed from n different things.
10!
10 C 4 = C(10,4) = ------ = 210
4! 6!
10!
10 P 4 = P(10,4) = ----- = 5040
6!
For example, if I have 4 marbles in a jar, 3 red and 1 blue, then the
probability of drawing the blue is 1/4. There is one chance of a blue
marble and 4 total chances (marbles).
Odds are expressed as the number of chances for (or against) versus
the number of chances against (or for). So, since there is 1 chance
of your picking the blue, and 3 chances of your picking red, the odds
are 3 to 1 AGAINST you picking the blue. For odds in favor, we just
reverse them. The odds are 1 to 3 IN FAVOR OF you picking the blue.
Note that this does NOT mean that the probability is 1/3 for or
against in the above example.
Dear Yuxiao,
It takes a lot of getting used to. The only way to get a feeling that
you really understand probabilities is to do lots and lots of
examples.
Let's apply this to the two dice. You know that the probability of
getting a 1 on the first die is 1/6. The probability of getting a 4 on
the second die is also 1/6. So multiply these two together and you
find that the probability of getting BOTH a 1 on the first die AND a
4 on the second die is 1/36.
That's one of the ways you can get a 5 with two dice. So 1/36 is part
of the probability of rolling a 5, but not all of it. Can you list the
other ways?
We've listed four ways to get a five, and that's all there are. Each
of these combinations has a probability of 1/36 of happening; so the
total probability of rolling a 5 is 4/36, which is 1/9.
A good next step for you would be to make a chart of all the results
1 through 12 and calculate the probabilities for each in the way I
just did for 5. You can check your chart when you're finished by
adding up the probabilities for all 12 numbers: The probabilities
should add up to 1. That's because one of these numbers HAS TO come
up, so the probability of getting any number 1 through 12 is 1.
Alternatively, there are 4 ways we can get a total of 5 and there are
36 possible outcomes when you roll two dice.
4 1
Required probability = ----- = ---
36 9
Dr. Math,
Thanks!
Hi Apurva,
The relationship is that when you want to compute the probability that
something will happen, you do this:
Coin Flipping
I wonder how I can figure out the chances of the following case:
To flip the same coin five times, what will be the chances of getting
the same combination (exact sequence) "right away"? I know that
1/5X1/5X1/5X1/5X1/5 is the formula to get 3T and 2H right away.
Somebody told me there is some method call "condition" special for
this kind of problem. It is like 1/2 X1/3 X1/4 X1/5 X1/6 but I am not
sure.
Example: You roll a single die, then flip a coin. How many different
outcomes are possible? Let's see... 6 outcomes for the die, 2 for the
coin, so 6*2 or 12 different outcomes are possible. They may be
thought of as (3,T), (1,H), (6,H), etc.
Also, since the outcome of the die in no way affects the tossing of
the coin, each of the 12 possible outcomes will have probability
(1/6)*(1/2) or 1/12. This is called an "equiprobability space," and is
quite common.
Now, back to your problem. You will be performing the same experiment
5 times in succession; that is, flipping a coin. Each flip of the
coin can result in 2 distinct and equally likely outcomes, H or T.
Moreover, the result of any coin flip is not influenced by or
dependent upon any previous coin flip. That last statement regarding
independence of the coin flips is very important; it tells us that all
possible outcomes after 5 coin flips are equally likely, or have the
same probability.
(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) = 1/32.
Factorial
Eric Peevey
Date: 4/2/96 at 4:2:32
From: Doctor Jodi
Subject: Re: Factorial
Hi Eric!
Say you were having a lottery and were picking 4 numbers out of 60 with
no repeats of numbers.
You'd find out the probability of picking a certain 4-number set (in a
certain order) by saying
60!
---
(60-4)!
Since the numbers 56 and less divide out, you're left with 60*59*58*57
as the number of ordered sets of 4 lottery numbers that could be drawn
The question I need to ask is: What is the probability of getting two
heads on four flips of an unbiased coin? I have looked at your other
answers, and think it would be 1/8 because:
Melissa Dismukes
Date: 05/18/2000 at 13:42:43
From: Doctor TWE
Subject: Re: Probability of two heads on four tosses
/\
Toss:
/ \
/ \
/ \
T H 1st
| |
/ \ / \
/ \ / \
/ \ / \
T H T H 2nd
| | | |
/ \ / \ / \ / \
/ \ / \ / \ / \
T H T H T H T H 3rd
| | | | | | | |
/ \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \
T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H 4th
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
0H 1H 1H 2H 1H 2H 2H 3H 1H 2H 2H 3H 2H 3H 3H 4H
4T 3T 3T 2T 3T 2T 2T 1T 3T 2T 2T 1T 2T 1T 1T 0T
* * * * * *
For a more general solution to this type of problem, search Dr. Math
for "binomial probability" (without the quotation marks) using our
archive search engine at:
http://mathforum.org/mathgrepform.html
History of Probability
Dear Patty,
Hi Sonny,
Two events are independent if the outcome of one has no effect on the
outcome of the other. The classic example would be rolling a pair of
dice. What happens with one die has no effect on what happens with the
other die.
Two events are dependent if the outcome of one has an effect on the
outcome of the other. The classic example would be drawing cards from
a deck without replacement. The probability of drawing an ace changes
depending on what other cards have already been drawn.
How many ways are there to roll three dice? There are 6 ways to roll
the first, 6 ways to roll the second, and 6 ways to roll the third, so
the number of possible outcomes is
6*6*6 = 6^3
How many ways are there to draw three cards from a deck without
replacement? There are 52 ways to draw the first one; but now there
are only 51 ways to draw the second (because one card has been
removed); and only 50 ways to draw the third. So the number of
possible outcomes is
I simply thought of this problem and was wondering how to solve it. I
became curious and decided to ask you. I was thinking something along
the lines of 1/infinity but I don't really know what to do.
Hi Aman,
Thanks for writing to Dr. Math. While it might not seem like it, your
question is really not so much a question of computing the probability
as it is in understanding what probability is all about. So let me
ask you a different, but related, question:
probability infinity
and found some interesting reading. Doctor Wallace gave a very nice
and detailed description of a similar problem on:
But now let's back up again and think about these random numbers.
Doctor Tom said to pick a random number up to M, and then calculate
the probability. Then you take a limit, which means to assume that M
is really, really big. And the bigger it gets, the closer your
probability is getting to.... Well, is it getting closer to some
number? It doesn't always, but it did in his problem, and it does in
ours. Suppose that we pick a random number from 1 to M. Then if M is
very large, the probability that our number will be less than a million is
1000000
-------.
M
Huh? That doesn't make much sense! And now we get to probability
theory. Mathematicians describe this in terms of measures, which you
would not be familiar with, so I'll describe the concepts and try to
be more understandable than precise.
This isn't the only way to answer the question, though. Suppose you
have a weighted coin that lands on heads two-thirds of the time, and
lands on tails only one third of the time. That is also a probability
but it is NOT uniform probability.
But now let's suppose that you have infinitely many choices. You
can't divide by infinity. So that means that it doesn't make sense to
use uniform probability. So we must have some kind of "weighted"
probability. There are many ways to do this. Here is one way:
And this is not the only way to decide the probabilities. There are
infinitely many ways. For example, you can choose the integer n with
probability 2/(3^n), or you choose choose the integer n with
probability 6/(n*pi)^2. The only requirement is that all of the
probabilities together add up to 1.
There is a lot to learn here, and perhaps you shouldn't try to learn
it all now. After all, most mathematicians don't learn about these
kinds of things until college. But you'll learn about these kinds of
things as you learn more math. In the meantime, if you have any
questions about this or need more help, please write back, and I will
try to explain more.
I've checked many books and Web sites, but they talk about strategy,
not math.
Date: 10/06/2000 at 12:49:13
From: Doctor TWE
Subject: Re: Card games
Exactly what kind of card games are you talking about? I can think of
at least three categories: games using standard playing cards (4 suits
of 13 cards each) or similar decks (like Bridge, Cribbage, Poker,
etc.); games that use card decks specific to that game (like Old Maid,
Quartet, Set, etc.); and the new "customizable" or "collectible" card
games (like Pokemon, Magic: the Gathering, etc.) Whichever type of
card game you are referring to, they use math in many of the same
ways.
Then there's the symmetry of the cards. The faces of the cards in some
games (particularly the "customizable" card games) have no symmetry,
while others (particularly standard playing cards) have two-way or
near two-way symmetry, and yet others have four-fold symmetry. My wife
doesn't like playing with standard playing cards because she's
left-handed and the corner symbols on most playing card decks are
designed for right-handers. She spreads her card hand "backward" and
thus sees the blank corner instead of the card symbol. The card backs
are frequently symmetric geometric patterns as well.
Determining the best playing strategy also involves math. Knowing how
to determine the probability of the occurrence of random events can
help a player determine the best strategy for winning. The play of
many card games also requires basic arithmetic skills. In many games,
you have to add or subtract points. (For example, in Blackjack you
need to add the values of your cards and subtract it from 21.) Some
card games, like Twenty-Four, require the players to do mathematical
computations as part of winning the hand. (In the game Twenty-Four,
each card has 4 numbers on it. The first player to be able to make an
expression that equals 24 using the 4 numbers and basic arithmetic
operations wins the card.) Some "customizable" card games also have a
"casting cost" or equivalent requirement before a card can be put into
play. The player must determine what combination of cards (s)he can
afford to play on each turn.
Most card games also require some form of scorekeeping from round to
round or hand to hand. This often just involves simple arithmetic, but
that is math as well.
I hope this gives you some ideas as to where to start. Perhaps you can
then explore these areas in more depth for the particular game or type
of card game you're interested in.
Suppose we roll one six-sided die. What are the possible outcomes?
What is the probabiliy of rolling a 4?
If we have two dice how many outcomes are there? With two dice what is
the probability of rolling a 5?
Thanks.
Hi Rae,
I like to think about these problems in terms of what I call the "ways
method" [Note: this is my own name for a common statistical device
that other people call other things.]
1
2
3
4
5
6
Step 2: List the number of equally likely ways that you can get each
outcome:
1+1+1+1+1+1 = 6
So, for example, there is one way to get a 5 and there are 6 ways
total, so the probability of getting a 5 is equal to 1/6.
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
For 2: There is only one way: you have to roll a 1 on the first die
and a 1 on the second die.
For 3: There are two ways: you can roll a 1 on the first die and a 2
on the second or a 2 on the first die and a 1 on the second.
For 4: There are 3 ways: you can roll a 1 on the first die and a 3
on the second, or a 2 on the first die and a 2 on the second, or a
3 on the first die and a 1 on the second.
For 5: There are 4 ways: you can roll a 1 on the first die and a 4
on the second, or a 2 on the first and a 3 on the second, or a 3 on
the first and a 2 on the second, or a 4 on the first and a 1 on the
second.
For 6: There are 5 ways: you can roll a 1 on the first and a 5 on
the second, or a 2 on the first and a 4 on the second, or a 3 on the
first and a 3 on the second, or a 4 on the first and a 2 on the
second, or a 5 on the first and a 1 on the second.
For 7: There are 6 ways: you can roll a 1 on the first and a 6 on
the second, or a 2 on the first and a 5 on the second, or a 3 on the
first and a 4 on the second, or a 4 on the first and a 3 on the
second, or a 5 on the first and a 2 on the second, or a 6 on the first
and a 1 on the second.
For 8: There are 5 ways: you can roll a 2 on the first and a 6 on
the second, or a 3 on the first and a 5 on the second, or a 4 on the
first and a 4 on the second, or a 5 on the first and a 3 on the
second, or a 6 on the first and a 2 on the second.
For 9: There are 4 ways: you can roll a 3 on the first and a 6 on
the second, or a 4 on the first and a 5 on the second, or a 5 on the
first and a 4 on the second, or a 6 on the first and a 3 on the
second.
For 10: There are 3 ways: you can roll a 4 on the first and a 6 on
the second, or a 5 on the first and a 5 on the second, or a 6 on the
first and a 4 on the second.
For 11: There are 2 ways: you can roll a 5 on the first and a 6 on
the second or a 6 on the first and a 5 on the second.
To summarize:
2 has 1 way
3 has 2 ways
4 has 3 ways
5 has 4 ways
6 has 5 ways
7 has 6 ways
8 has 5 ways
9 has 4 ways
10 has 3 ways
11 has 2 ways
12 has 1 way
1+2+3+4+5+6+5+4+3+2+1 = 36
How can we use this method to find the probability with 3 dice?
One thing to note: this method works for all probability calculations,
but it is not necessarily always the best. It assumes that each "way"
is EQUALLY likely (which is true for dice, as long as they aren't
weighted). You have to do some complicated adjustments if the "ways"
aren't equally likely.
I hope this helps. If you have other questions about this or you're
still stuck, please write back.
Hi Dr. Math,
My second-grade son asked a question of his math teacher and was not
satisfied with her answer. She taught the class that the sum of two
even numbers will be even, the sum of two odd numbers will be even,
and the sum of one odd and one even number will be odd.
He asked her, since there are more ways to achieve an even sum, is it
more likely that an addition problem will have an even answer? She
said, "No, it depends on the addends." He understands that it depends
on the specific problems he is given, but still feels that overall,
addition problems are more likely to have even answers.
You have to be a little careful here because you are dealing with
infinite sets. However, if we are limited to the set of numbers 1 to
100, there are 50 even numbers and 50 odd numbers.
The sum of the two numbers is even on 2 x 2500 = 5000 occasions. The
sum of the two numbers is odd on 2 x 2500 = 5000 occasions. So there
is no bias in favor of an even sum.
What is the probability of two different times within the same hour
ending in the same last digit? Like 08:13 and 08:43?
Hi, Michael.
or:
2
---
6
Suppose like in your example I pick 8:13. Now, how many ways can you
pick a time that ends with the same digit as mine?
8:03
8:13
8:23
8:33
8:43
8:53
but one of those is the same time I picked, and you're not allowed to
pick that one, so you're down to 5 possible ways to pick the time.
So your probability is
5
----------------------------------------
total # of times you could have picked
So how many times could you have picked? There are 60 minutes in an
hour, and you're not allowed to pick one of them. Can you figure out
the probability from there? Write back if you're stuck.
Max has 5 coins in his pocket that total 47 cents. What is the
probability that he will reach into his pocket and pull out a dime,
and then without replacing it reach in and pull out a quarter?
A. 1/20
B. 1/10
C. 1/25
D. 2/25
Could it be 1/10?
Hi Kita -
Let's first think about the coins that Max has in his pocket. 5 coins,
47 cents. He has to have 2 pennies in order to make the 47, so that
takes care of two of the coins. Now we need to think how he could have
3 coins that make 45 cents. How could he get the 5 cents of the 45?
If he had a nickel, that would mean we need to get two coins to make
40 cents and that can't happen. Therefore, he has to have a quarter,
which leaves us with making 20 cents with two coins. That gives him
two dimes.
Now we can finish the problem off. He has two chances of pulling out a
dime from his five coins, and then he has 1 chance of pulling out a
quarter from the coins he has left. Remember that these probabilities
need to be multiplied together and you'll not only get your answer but
will be able to explain how you got there.
I hope this helps. Write back if you're still stuck, or if you have
other questions.
Probability of Divisibility
Date: 06/18/2002 at 19:19:18
From: Lisa Vinson
Subject: common fractions
Hi Lisa,
How many 3-digit numbers are there? Call that Q. (If you're not
sure how many there are, think about how many miles you could drive
when the odometer in your car reads between 100 and 999.)
How many of them are divisible by 5? Call that P. (If you're not
sure how many there are, start listing them. You should quickly see
a pattern.)
Hi, Alfredo.
You know the definitions, but I'm not sure what more you mean by
"interpretation". Let's look at a simple example and explore the
differences; then you can tell me whether I've shown that the sort of
interpretation you have in mind is indeed different.
Suppose I roll one die, and consider whether I roll a six. I can
describe this event in three ways:
ways to succeed 1
Probability of six = --------------- = ---
total outcomes 6
ways to succeed 1
Odds in favor of six = --------------- = --- = 1:5
ways to fail 5
ways to fail 5
Odds against six = --------------- = --- = 5:1
ways to succeed 1
Probability tells you what fraction of the time you can expect an
event to occur; you will roll a 6 about 1/6 of the time. This is
never greater than 1, but the higher it is, the more probable the
event is, with a probability of 1 representing (virtual) certainty,
and 0 representing (virtual) impossibility.
Odds tells you the ratio of time the event occurs to the time it
doesn't (or vice versa); you roll a 6 once for every 5 times you roll
something else (in the long run). Odds can be any (positive) ratio at
all, from 0:1 to 1:0. Something that never happens will have odds of
0:1 in favor, and something that always happens will have odds of 1:0
in favor (0:1 against), though we never express these cases as odds!
Odds of 1:1 are "fifty-fifty", equally like to occur or not; this
corresponds to 50% probability.
I imagine your confusion lies in the fact that both probability and
odds in favor are higher when something is more likely, so they sound
at first like the same thing. But the meaning of "high" in each case
is different: a probability of 9/10 is pretty high, but odds of 9:10
are not high at all! In fact, in the latter case, you are less likely
to succeed than to fail. The odds corresponding to a 9/10 probability
would be 9:1. Now THAT'S a likely event!
Penny Toss
My son is in the 7th grade. I try to help him grasp the concepts of
advanced math because I believe that a firm understanding of math will
do a great deal to advance his quality of life, as it has mine.
Usually I am very good but I am not quite sure about this one. His
"Problem of the week 6" goes as follows...
"Three people each toss a penny at the same time. What is the
probability that two people get the same side of the penny and the
other person gets the opposite side?"
Thanks,
Dave K.
If there are only 3 pennies, it's easy just to list the possibilities:
HHH
HHT
HTH
HTT
THH
THT
TTH
TTT
where the first column represents the result for the first person,
etc. So there are 8 equally likely ways the experiment can come out,
6 of which have two faces the same. Thus the probability is 6/8 = 75%.
You were on the right track, but the .5*.5*.5 is the probability that
all three throw heads (and also the probability that all three throw
tails). So there is a 12.5% chance that all three throw heads, a 12.5%
chance that all throw tails, and hence, a 100% - 12.5% - 12.5% = 75%
chance that all three flips aren't the same.
I don't know if your kid knows about combinations (like "6 choose 2"
- the number of ways of picking 2 things from a set of 6), but if
so, that's a good way to work it.
For example, if the problem were, "7 people flip 1 penny each. What is
the probability that there are at least 4 heads tossed?"
favorable outcomes.
If I had two dice each with the following numbers on them: -3, -2,
-1, 0, 1, and 2, and rolled them 100 times, what sum would be rolled
most often and why? Can you help?
Hi Zoe,
Let's look at the case for regular dice, numbered 1-6. Here are the possible
sums:
second
die
+ 1 2 3 4 5 6
------------------
1 | 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 | 3 4 5 6 7 8
first 3 | 4 5 6 7 8 9
die 4 | 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 | 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 | 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sum Appears
--- -------
2 1 time
3 2 times
4 3 times
5 4 times
6 5 times
7 6 times
8 5 times
9 4 times
10 3 times
11 2 times
12 1 time
Now, suppose you had 36 balls, and you marked them this way:
Put the balls in a hat, and draw one out. Toss it back in, and draw one out
again. If you keep doing this, which mark would you expect to draw most
often?
Do you see why the problem with the dice and the problem with the balls are
really just two versions of the same problem? Can you see how this relates
to _your_ problem?
Hi Kristine,
A pie graph or pie chart tells you what fraction of the time something
happened, or is expected to happen, and that's what probability tells
you, too. In fact, a pie graph is just a way of drawing probabilities
instead of writing them down using numbers.
For example, suppose a pie graph has three areas, with people who will
vote for Gore (41%), people who will vote for Bush (44%), and people
who will vote for someone else (11%).
So the probability that you'll pull a 'Bush' ball out of the jar is
44/100.
I hope this helps. Write back if I didn't quite answer your question,
or if you have other questions.
Hi, Ashley,
A supply of four of each flavor would have guaranteed four happy kids,
but a supply of three of each flavor works in almost all (96%) of the
cases.
There are 5 people with 5 hats. The hats are put into a box.
What is the probability that each person will get his or her hat?
The probability that the first person will get the right hat is
1/5. Now there are four people and four hats so the probability
that the second person gets their own hat is 1/4. Similarly for
the third and fourth people. Of course, if the first four people
all get the correct hat then the last person must get the right
hat too as it is the only one left.
Probability Problem
6th grade math problem: There's a box with 12 letters, one of which is a D,
and 2 are E's. I know that the probability of getting a D is therefore 1 out
of 12, and an E is 1 out of 6. However, how do I determine the probability
of getting a D and then an E, if the D is replaced after being selected?
Hello there!
You can find out how many different favorable possibilities there are for
drawing, and then divide that by the total number of possibilities for
drawing. In this case, there are 2 different ways you can get a D and then
an E. You can draw the D and then the first E, or you can draw the D and
then the other E.
Now how many different ways are there you can draw 2 letters from the bag?
Well, since there are 12 possibilities for each draw, there are 12x12 = 144
possibilities. So the probability we get a D and then an E is 2/144, or
1 out of 72. Thanks for the question!
-Ken
Can you help me? I feel the answer is a. 1/3, but why is it not
1/15 * 14 * 1/13 * 1/12 * 1/11? And is this a way to find the
probability of anything, and if so what would the question be?
So, had the principal chosen 5 rooms out of 15, (s)he would have
had 15 choose 5 choices, from which (s)he chose 1. Then the
probability of choosing that 1 set of five rooms would be
1/(15 choose 5) = (5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1)/(15 * 14 * 13 * 12 * 11).
In how many ways can you choose three numbers from 1-100 whose sum is
divisible by three?
Hi Sepha,
I'd probably start thinking about ways that I could just look at three
numbers, and see if the sum will be divisible by 3.
For example, as you've noted, if you choose all three numbers that are
individually divisible by 3, the sum will also be divisible by 3.
What if you choose two numbers that are divisible by 3, and a third
that is not? Try some examples, and convince yourself that this won't
work.
What about two numbers that aren't divisible by 3? Well, this CAN
work, but only if one is 1 less than a multiple of 3, and the other is
1 more than a multiple of 3.
Now, suppose we have 100 balls, marked with the numbers from 1 to 100.
We color all the multiples of 3 green: 3, 6, 9, 12, ... 99.
The balls whose numbers are 1 MORE than a multiple of 3 are colored
blue: 1, 4, 7, 10, 13, ..., 100. (Recall that 0 is a multiple of 3,
which is why 1 goes in this group.)
The remaining balls must have numbers that are 1 LESS than a multiple
of 3: 2, 5, 8, 11, 14, ..., 98. We can color them red.
So now, every number has a color, right? If you can figure out which
color combinations will give you a multiple of 3, then your problem
becomes one about selecting colored balls out of a jar... which is
probably more like the problems you've dealt with in the past, right?
Thank you very much for your help! I was expecting that I would just
get an answer, but now that you've explained it, I know how to
actually do it! Thank you!
1. A woman has two children. What are the odds that both are boys?
2. Charlie hits the target 80 times in 100 shots. Jim hits the target
90 times in 100 shots. What are the chances that the target will be
hit if each fires once?
Philip Carter
50% / \ 50%
boy girl
To find the odds, just multiply across the path that leads to two
boys:
Had you wanted to know the odds of a boy and a girl, you would have
multiplied across the path that leads to a boy and a girl and then add
that to the path that leads to a girl and then a boy. They both
satisfy the criteria so you add them.
80%/ \20%
hits misses
if it is hit and then hit again, that counts; if it is hit and then
missed, that counts; if it is missed and then hit, that counts; if
both miss it, that doesn't count... so let's multiply along the first
three branches and then add:
(.8 * .9) + (.8 * .1) + (.2 * .9) = .72 + .08 + .18 = .98,
or 98 percent. Pretty good odds, eh?
98%/ \2%
good bad
I hope this helps you out. These problems are easy if you use tree
diagrams!
Regards,
I know there is 13/52 clubs and 4/52 kings, and 1 of the kings shares
the club, so that would make 12/52 clubs, and 3/52 kings, and 1/52
king of clubs.
Sandra,
I think you're making the problem harder than it needs to be. There
is only one king of clubs in an ordinary deck. So the probability of
picking it is 1/52.
A more difficult problem (which you are well on your way to solving)
is to find the probability that the card you pick is either a king OR
a club. Now the probability is 16/52.
You can get this answer the hard way, by listing all possibilities:
But there might have been too many possibilities to list. Your method
can be used to answer this question. Many people get this question
WRONG by assuming that
P(king OR club) = P(king) + P(club)
= 4/52 + 13/52.
But this counts the king of clubs twice: once as a king and once as a
club. The correct method is to subtract the extra time this counts the
king of clubs:
I hope this helps. If you have any more questions, write back.
Socks
Least number = 14, because the worst case is he will pick all
the grey ones on the first 12 tries, and then he is guaranteed
that the next two will be blue.
Least number = 12, because the worst case is he will pick all
the blue ones of the first 10 tries, and then he is guaranteed
that the next two will be grey.
Directions: Read each question below. Select your answer by clicking on its button.
Feedback to your answer is provided in the RESULTS BOX. If you make a mistake, choose
a different button. For some problems, the answers have been rounded to the nearest
percent.
{H, T, H, T}
{H, T}
RESULTS BOX:
Bottom of Form
65%
40%
60%
RESULTS BOX:
Bottom of Form
RESULTS BOX:
Bottom of Form
RESULTS BOX:
Bottom of Form
RESULTS BOX:
Bottom of Form
18%
57%
RESULTS BOX:
Bottom of Form
RESULTS BOX:
Bottom of Form
60%
63%
37%
RESULTS BOX:
Bottom of Form
81%
21%
53%
RESULTS BOX:
Bottom of Form
RESULTS BOX:
Bottom of Form
Problem : If a dice is rolled once, what is the probability that it will show an even
number? An odd number?
Problems
Problem : If a dice is rolled once, what is the probability that it will show an even number? An
odd number?
Solution for Problem 1 >>
,
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Problem : If a dice is rolled once, what is the probability that it will show a prime number ( 1 is
not prime)?
Solution for Problem 2 >>
Close
Problem : If a dice is rolled once, what is the probability that it will show a multiple of 3 ?
Solution for Problem 3 >>
Close
Problem : If a dice is rolled once, what is the probability that it will show a multiple of 1 ? A
multiple of 7 ?
Solution for Problem 4 >>
1,0
Close
Problem : If a coin is flipped twice, what is the probability that it will land heads once and tails
once?
Solution for Problem 5 >>
Close
Problem : If a coin is flipped twice, what is the probability that it will land heads at least once?
Solution for Problem 6 >>
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Complementary Events
Two events are said to be complementary when one event occurs if and only if the other does
not. The probabilities of two complimentary events add up to 1 .
For example, rolling a 5 or greater and rolling a 4 or less on a die are complementary events,
because a roll is 5 or greater if and only if it is not 4 or less. The probability of rolling a 5 or
greater is = , and the probability of rolling a 4 or less is = . Thus, the total of their
probabilities is + = =1.
Example 2: If the probability of an event happening is , what are the odds for that event?
Example 3. If the odds for an event are 3 : 2 , what is the probability of the event happening?
Favorable outcomes = 3 .
Probability
Probability is the branch of mathematics that studies the possible outcomes of given events
together with the outcomes' relative likelihoods and distributions. In common usage, the word
"probability" is used to mean the chance that a particular event (or set of events) will occur
expressed on a linear scale from 0 (impossibility) to 1 (certainty), also expressed as a percentage
between 0 and 100%. The analysis of events governed by probability is called statistics.
There are several competing interpretations of the actual "meaning" of probabilities. Frequentists
view probability simply as a measure of the frequency of outcomes (the more conventional
interpretation), while Bayesians treat probability more subjectively as a statistical procedure that
endeavors to estimate parameters of an underlying distribution based on the observed
distribution.
A properly normalized function that assigns a probability "density" to each possible outcome
within some interval is called a probability density function (or probability distribution function),
and its cumulative value (integral for a continuous distribution or sum for a discrete distribution)
is called a distribution function (or cumulative distribution function).
A variate is defined as the set of all random variables that obey a given probabilistic law. It is
common practice to denote a variate with a capital letter (most commonly ). The set of all
values that can take is then called the range, denoted (Evans et al. 2000, p. 5). Specific
elements in the range of are called quantiles and denoted , and the probability that a variate
assumes the element is denoted .
Probabilities are defined to obey certain assumptions, called the probability axioms. Let a sample
and let and denote subsets of . Further, let be the complement of , so that
(2
)
Let denote the conditional probability of given that has already occurred, then
(9)
(1
0)
(1
1)
(1
2)
(1
3)
(1
4)
The relationship
(1
5)
holds if and are independent events. A very important result states that
(1
6)
which can be generalized to
Let p(n) be Alice's chances of winning the total amount of a + b, provided she has n nickels in
her possession. Obviously p(0) = 0. If she is left with a non-zero capital, Alice may, at every
trial, win or lose one nickel, both with the probability of 1/2,
p(n) = p(n + 1)/2 + p(n - 1)/2, n > 0.
In other words, 2p(n) = p(n + 1) + p(n - 1), or p(n + 1) - p(n) = p(n) - p(n - 1). From here,
recursively,
p(n + 1) - p(n) = p(n) - p(n - 1)
= p(n - 1) - p(n - 2)
= p(n - 2) - p(n - 3)
...
= p(2) - p(1)
= p(1) - p(0)
= p(1).
It follows that p(n) = n p(1) and, since, p(a + b) = 1, p(1) = 1 / (a + b). It follows that p(a) = a /
(a + b).
References
1. E. J. Barbeau, M. S. Klamkin, W. O. J. Moser, Five Hundred Mathematical Challenges,
MAA, 1995, #494
Problems
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Problem : What is the probability of an event if its complement is impossible (has probability
0 )?
Solution for Problem 2 >>
1
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Close
Problem : If a coin is flipped three times, the probability and getting all heads is . What is the
probability of getting tails at least once?
Solution for Problem 4 >>
Close
Problem : When flipping a coin, what are the odds for getting heads?
Solution for Problem 5 >>
1:1
Close
Problem : Paul has 1 green shirt, 5 red shirts, and 9 striped shirts. He randomly draws one out of
his drawer.
a)
b)
c)
d)
Close
Problem : If the probability of an event is , what are the odds for the event? The odds against
it (the odds for its complement)?
Solution for Problem 8 >>
7:5,5:7
Close
Problem : If the odds for an event are 4 : 5 , what is the probability of the event? Of its
complement?
Solution for Problem 9 >>
,
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