1. A.

Diketahui hasil proksimate analysis suatu cadangan batubara sbb:

BMC-Coal TM (%) IM (%) Ash (%) VM (%) FC (%) TS (%) CV (Kcal/Kg)
ar adb adb adb adb adb Adb
average 48,25 13,41 5,11 44,92 36,21 0,15 5,425

KGAR = 5.425 x (100 – 48,25)/(100 – 13,41)

= 5.425 x (51,75)/(86,59)
= 3242 kcal/kg GAR
Bila TM ≥ 40 %

 HPB Price Marker = 41,98

 B(i) = ( TS(i) – 0,8) x 4
= (0,18 – 0,8) x 4
= -2,48
 U(i) = (Ash(i) – 15) x 4
= (3,90 – 15) x 4
= - 4,44
 K(j)/K(i) = CV(j) / CV(i)
= 3520 / 4200
= 0,838
 FKA(j) = (100 – TM) / (100 – TM(j)) x (TM(j)) + (100 – TM) / 100
= ((100 – 48,25) / (100 – 43,4) x 43,4)) + ((100 – 48,25) / 100))
= 40,19
 FKA(i) = ((100 – 8) / (100 – TM(i)) x TM(i))) + ((100 – 8) / 100)
= ((100 – 8) / (100 – 35,00) x 35,00)) + ((100 – 8) / 100)
= 50,45

HPB (j) = {(HPB Price Marker (i) + (B (i) + U (i))) x (K(j) / K(i)) x [(100 – Kandungan Air (j))/(100 – Kandungan Air
(i)] x [(100 – 8)/FKA(i)/(100 – 8/FKA(j)]}
HPB (j) = {(41,98 + (-2,48) + (-4,44)) x (0,838) x [(100 – 43,4) / (100 – 35,00)] x [(100 – 8 / 50,45) / (100 – 8
/ 40,19)
HPB (j) = 35,81 x 0,87 x 1,0004
HPB (j) = 31,16

B. Tentukan harga jual batubara diatas tongkang (FOB Barge) jika misalkan diketahui biaya
angkut dari tongkang hingga ke Vessel sebesar US$ 5/ton

Jawaban:

FOB Barge = HPB(j) + FOB Vessel

= 31,16 + 5

= 36,16
2. Jika kondisi investasi untuk masing-masing harga jual batubara berturut-turut adalah sebagai berikut:

Harga jual berturut-turut $US 14,50/ton ; $US 15,00/ton ; $US 15,50/ton dan US$ 16,00/ton

US$ 14,50/ton

NPV, IRR AND BEP ANALYSIS

0th Year 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year
Tax Rate 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%

EBT -1407066 -261972 -111972 1806375 2765548

Tax -422120 -78592 -33592 541912 829664
EAT -984946 -183380 -78380 1264462 1935883
Cash Flow -719380 -984946 -183380 -78380 1264462 1935883

US$ 15,00/ton

NPV,IRR AND BEP ANALYSIS

0th Year 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year

Tax Rate 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%

EBT -1252066 38028 188028 2106375 3065548

Tax -375620 11408 56480 631912 919664

EAT -876446 26620 131620 1474462 2145883

Cash Flow -719380 -876446 26620 131620 1474462 2145883

HARGA US
15,50/TON
NPV, IRR AND BEP ANALISYS
0 year 1st years 2nd years 3rd years 4th years 5th years
tax rate 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
EBT -1096066 338028 488028 2406375 3365548
tax rate -329120 101408 146608 721912 1009664
EAT -767946 236620 341620 1684462 2355883
CASH FLOW -719380 -767946 236620 341620 1684462 2355883

HARGA US
16,00/TON
NPV, IRR AND BEP ANALISYS
0 year 1st years 2nd years 3rd years 4th years 5th years
tax rate 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
EBT -942066 638028 788028 2706375 3665548
tax rate -282620 191408 236408 811912 1099664
EAT -659446 446620 551620 1894462 2565883
CASH FLOW -719380 -659446 446620 551620 1894462 2565883

TUGAS :

Lakukakan sensitivity analysis terhadap perubahan harga dengan memerhatikan parameter 2 : Net
Present Value dan Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

US$14.50

NPV, IRR AND BEP ANALYSIS

0 1 2 3 4 5
Tax Rate 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
EBT -1407066 -261972 -111972 1806375 2765548
Tax -422120 -78592 -33592 541912 829664
EAT -984946 -183380 -78380 1264462 1935883
Cash Flow -719380 -984946 -183380 -78380 1264462 1935883
MARR 10%
NPV -719380 -895405 -151554 -58888.1 863644.6 1202031
Total NPV $ 240,448.37
US$15.00

NPV,IRR AND BEP ANALYSIS

0 1 2 3 4 5
Tax Rate 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
EBT -1252066 38028 188028 2106375 3065548
Tax -375620 11408 56480 631912 919664
EAT -876446 26620 131620 1474462 2145883
Cash Flow -719380 -876446 26620 131620 1474462 2145883
MARR 30.000%
NPV -719380 -674189.2308 15751.47929 59908.97 516250.1 577948.7
Total NPV $ (223,709.97)

US$15.50

NPV, IRR AND BEP ANALISYS

0 1 2 3 4 5
tax rate 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
EBT -1096066 338028 488028 2406375 3365548
tax rate -329120 101408 146608 721912 1009664
EAT -767946 236620 341620 1684462 2355883
CASH FLOW -719380 -767946 236620 341620 1684462 2355883
MARR 10%
NPV -719380 -698132.7 195553.72 256664.16 1150510.211 1462817.989
Total NPV $1,648,033.35

US$16.00

NPV, IRR AND BEP ANALISYS

0 1 2 3 4 5
tax rate 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
EBT -942066 638028 788028 2706375 3665548
tax rate -282620 191408 236408 811912 1099664
EAT -659446 446620 551620 1894462 2565883
CASH FLOW -719380 -659446 446620 551620 1894462 2565883
MARR 10%
NPV -719380 -599496.364 369107.438 414440.2705 1293943.037 1593211.467
Total NPV $ 2,351,825.85
 Penurunan Harga Perubahan IRR
Sensitivitas NPV Sensitivitas NPV
33.0% $ (6,093,684.08) 200% $ (223,709.97)
29.7% $ (5,389,891.59) 180% $ (151,280.52)
26.4% $ (4,686,099.09) 160% $ (71,713.94)
23.1% $ (3,982,306.60) 140% $ 15,790.22
19.8% $ (3,278,514.11) 120% $ 112,136.56
16.5% $ (2,574,721.61) 100% $ 218,349.53
13.2% $ (1,870,929.12) 80% $ 335,591.55
9.9% $ (1,167,136.62) 60% $ 465,184.53
6.6% $ (463,344.13) 40% $ 608,634.95
3.3% $ 240,448.37 20% $ 767,663.65
0% $ 944,240.86 0% $ 944,240.86