Updating Rolling Forecast, end of each sales month.

3 months Moving Average

End of March

Updating
Next
Original Month's
Month Forecast Actual Forecast
January 101 95
February 98 110
March 103 105 103
April 100 100 103 Each next month forecast = sum of past three months' a
May 103 105
June 100
July 107
August 105
September 100
October 103
November 100
December 102

End of April

Next Month
Month Forecast Actual Forecast
January 100 95
February 100 89
March 100 102
April 100 98 95
May 100 96
June 100
July 100
August 100
September 100
October 100
November 100
December 100

End of May

Next Month
Month Forecast Actual Forecast
January 100 95
February 100 89
March 100 102 100
April 100 98 95
May 100 105 96
June 100 102
July 100
August 100
September 100
October 100
November 100
December 100
= sum of past three months' actual/3
Updating Rolling Forecast, end of each sales month.
3-months Moving Average

Smoothing Factor (Alpha, between 0 and 1) assign weightage

between Forecast and Actual. Higher Alpha = more weight to Actual.

End of March Alpha 0.5 (Range of a from 0 to 1)

Updating
Next
Original Month's
Month Forecast Actual Forecast
January 100 95
February 100 89
March 100 150
April 100 125 Last month Actual =
May 100 Forecast Month Orignal =
June 100 Alpha = 0.8
July 100 Updated Forecast for Month
August 100
September 100 140
October 100
November 100
December 100

End of April

Next Month
Month Forecast Actual Forecast
January 100 95
February 100 89
March 100 102 100
April 100 98 102
May 100 99
June 100
July 100
August 100
September 100
October 100
November 100
December 100

End of May
 Next Month
Month Forecast Actual Forecast
January 100 95
February 100 89
March 100 102 100
April 100 98 102
May 100 105 95
June 100 103
July 100
August 100
September 100
October 100
November 100
December 100
150
100

140
Froecast Variance and Bias

Variance
Original (Actual-
Month Forecast Actual Forecast) MAD || Bias Bias %
January 100 95 -5 5 -5 5%
February 100 89 -11 11 -16 16%
March 100 105 5 5 -11 11%
April 100 103 3 3 -8 8%
May 100 105 5 5 -3 3%
June 100 104 4 4 1 1%
July 100 103 3 3 4 4%
August 100 88 -12 12 -8 8%
September 100 110 10 10 2 2%
October 100 110 10 10 12 12%
November 100 100 0 0 12 12%
December 100 101 1 1 13 13%

Average 101 1.08 6

Std. Deviation 5 Measure of Forecast Accuracy Variability

Coeff. Of Variability 5% Measure of Forecast Accuracy

Bias (Tracking Signal) +/-10% Measure of cumulative variance

R&S