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I. STATE OF PLAY
The UK was due to leave the European Union (EU) on 29 March 2019, but the revised
departure date is now 31 October 2019.
Boris Johnson succeeded Theresa May as Conservative leader and British Prime
Minister on 24 July 2019 after she failed to break the deadlock over Brexit and her
withdrawal agreement with the EU was rejected three times in Parliament.
Following his appointment as Prime Minister of the UK, Boris Johnson made radical
changes at the top of Government. His new Cabinet has a strongly pro-Brexit flavour,
with the major cabinet posts going to those who have backed his plan to take Britain
out of the EU by 31 October with or without a withdrawal deal. Boris Johnson new
cabinet has the following as members:
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19. Alister Jack Scottish Secretary
20. Alun Cairns Welsh Secretary
21. Natalie Evans Leader of the House of Lords
22. James Cleverly Tory party chairman
Boris Johnson described the withdrawal agreement as a “dead letter” and demanded
that the backstop be removed from the withdrawal agreement. The EU on the other
hand has made it clear that the withdrawal agreement would not be renegotiated and
the backstop would not be removed from the agreement.
Though the preference of the UK is to leave the EU with a deal, preparations for
leaving the EU without a withdrawal deal are being ramped up. On 01 August 2019,
the UK Chancellor Sajid Javid announced that €2.3bn would be allocated to fund
Brexit for this year to prepare for no deal. The money will be used for border and
customs operations, medical supplies, public communications on Brexit, and support
for UK nationals overseas.
UK was Mauritius 3rd export partner in 2018 with exports amounting to USD 227
million, (constituting 12% of total exports). The three main sectors are: apparel
(38%), fish preparations (26%), and sugar (12%). These three sectors represent
more than 70% of Mauritius’ exports to the UK.
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A. Contraction of the UK economy and possible recession
Over the long term, as per the Britain’s Finance Minister, the economy could be 8%
smaller by 2035 with a no deal Brexit. With the contraction of the UK’s economy and
fall in consumption, a decline in our exports to the UK is expected in the short run.
Current exports trend to the UK in key sectors are as follows:
TABLE 1
EXPORT TREND
Products 2016 2017 2018
(thousand USD) (thousand USD) (thousand USD)
Apparel 141,296 130,266 113,425
Fish preparations(tuna) 68,176 69,528 76,012
Sugar 30,770 25,105 16,604
Source: Trademap
There could also be some opportunities. In case of a no deal Brexit scenario, the UK
Government proposes to impose duty on 13% of its sensitive tariff lines including
sugar, fish and automobiles to the EU. A situation like this could benefit Mauritius,
particularly for sugar, in view of the fact that our exports on the UK market are
expected to remain duty free, whilst the EU and countries that have not signed a Free
Trade Agreement with UK would be subject to a duty of 419 euros per ton.
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B. Impact on Tourism
As regards the Tourism sector, statistics show that UK tourists accounted for about
10.9% of total tourist arrivals in 2018. In 2017, tourist earnings from UK was
estimated at 11.8% of total tourist revenue. The trend in tourist arrivals and
expenditure are shown below:
TABLE 2
TREND IN TOURISM ARRIVAL AND EXPENDITURE
2016 2017 2018
Tourist Expenditure Tourist Expenditure Tourist Expenditure
Arrivals (MUR Arrivals (MUR Arrivals (MUR
Billion) Billion ) Billion)
(estimates)
United 141,904 6.9 149,807 7.1 151,913 7.61
Kingdom
All 1,275,227 56 1,341,860 60 1,399,408 64
countries
% Increase 5.60% 1.40%
in Arrivals
% of UK 11.10% 11.20% 10.90%
Tourists out
of Total
Number of
Tourists
% 12.30% 11.80% 11.90%
expenditure
1/ Provisional estimates (Subject to revision)
As indicated in Table 2, while there has been an increase in tourists’ arrival from UK
compared to 2017, the percentage increase was lower at 1.4% compared to the
previous increase of 5.6%. The declining trend is likely to continue.
With a contraction of the UK economy, it is also expected there will also be a change
in the consumption pattern of UK tourists. The World Travel and Tourism Council
(WTTC) anticipates that UK expenditure abroad will decrease significantly (-4.2
percent), as the drop in the value of the Pound will continue to impact UK citizens’
spending power and their propensity to holiday abroad. The compounded effect of
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the drop in arrival and tourist spending may impact the tourism sector by a minimum
of 5% on both counts.
Below is a trend in the exchange rate of the Pound, USD and EURO against the
Mauritian rupee between January 2016 and July 2019:
Source: Bank of Mauritius (Monthly Average indicative selling rates for T.T. & D.D. of banks.)
From 2016 to July 2019, the Pound has depreciated by 13.9% against the Rupee. With
the knowledge of the Bank of England predicting a slump in the British Pound of the
order of 25% in a no Brexit deal, the British Pound may fall to Rs 34.12 (assuming a
one-to-one relationship against the rupee).
Although our revenue earnings for our key exports (apparels, sugar and tuna) are
mainly in Euro and USD, the decline in Pound is likely to have a ripple effect on other
currencies such as the Euro. With a no deal BREXIT, it is expected that the Euro may
also be affected and consequently affect our export earnings from the EU. As regards
the tourism sector, the continued depreciation in the Pound would automatically
translate in a fall in revenue.
D. Investment
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that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into the UK would fall by around 20% over the
coming years under a no deal scenario thus further impacting the economy.
On the financial side, there is an increasing threat that a no deal Brexit may lead to
the collapse of the UK financial market. A huge number of financial market
participants in Europe will be affected by Brexit, which means that financial services
companies may be reviewing the locations of their headquarters and operations, the
more so that there are concerns regarding the free movement of professionals. It is
also likely that UK would implement a new work permit regime between the UK and
the EU 27 which may restrict movement of professionals.
The “Support for Trade Promotion & Marketing Scheme” (Ex-Speed to Market
scheme) could be expanded to assist specific companies affected by BREXIT
with an increase in the Air Freight rebates targeted to UK.
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markets such as Australia, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Spain, Germany,
Hungary, Poland, Denmark and the Netherlands.
Mauritius can use the UK-ESA agreement to pursue negotiations with the UK
on important issues such as Services and Investment. The Agreement contains
a built in provision to pursue negotiations within 6 months upon entry into
force.