Año Trimestre Periodo Ventas n2

1 1 750
2 2 980
Año 1
3 3 850 865
4 4 1110 915
1 5 890 980
2 6 1100 1000
Año 2
3 7 950 995
4 8 1320 1025
1 9 1050 1135
2 10 1390 1185
3 11 1210 1220
Año3 4 12 1450 1300
1 13 1088 1330
2 14
3 15
Año4 4 16
Error n3 Error

15
195 860 250
90 980 90
100 950 150
45 1033 83
295 980 340
85 1123 73
205 1107 283
10 1253 43
150 1217 233
99 1350 129
Año Trimestre Periodo Ventas
1 1 750
2 2 980
1
3 3 850
4 4 1110
1 5 890
2 6 1100
2
3 7 950
4 8 1320
1 9 1050
2 10 1390
3
3 11 1210
4 12 1450
1 13 1088
2 14
4
3 15
4 16

Trimestre Periodo Indice Estacional

I 896.6666666667 0.8245210728
1400
II 1156.6666666667 1.0636015326
III 1003.3333333333 0.922605364 f(x) = 39.8718546401x + 828.3329448395
1200 R² = 0.849513697
IV 1293.3333333333 1.1892720307
1000

800

600

400

200

0
1 2 3 4
 Indice Ventas Desestacionlizadas Ventas Pronosticadas Ventas Pronosticadas Deses
0.8245210728 909.6189591078 868.202 715.850844444
1.0636015326 921.3976945245 908.074 965.828898084
0.922605364 921.303986711 947.946 874.580064367
1.1892720307 933.3440721649 987.818 1174.78431877
0.8245210728 1079.4144981413 1027.69 847.352061302
1.0636015326 1034.2219020173 1067.562 1135.46057931
0.922605364 1029.6926910299 1107.434 1021.72454865
1.1892720307 1109.9226804124 1147.306 1364.45893639
0.8245210728 1273.4665427509 1187.178 978.853278160
1.0636015326 1306.8804034582 1227.05 1305.09226053
0.922605364 1311.5033222591 1266.922 1168.86903295
1.1892720307 1219.2332474227 1306.794 1554.13355402

Ventas Pronosticadas
1400

f(x) = 39.8718546401x + 828.3329448395

1200 R² = 0.849513697

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ventas Pronosticadas Desestacionalizadas Error
715.8508444444 -34
965.8288980843 -14
874.5800643678 25
1174.784318774 65
847.3520613027 -43
1135.4605793104 35
1021.724548659 72
1364.4589363985 44
978.8532781609 -71
1305.0922605364 -85
1168.8690329502 -41
1554.133554023 104

12
Año Trimestre Periodo Ventas Indice
1 1 750 0.82452107
2 2 980 1.06360153
1
3 3 850 0.92260536
4 4 1110 1.18927203
1 5 890 0.82452107
2 6 1100 1.06360153
2
3 7 950 0.92260536
4 8 1320 1.18927203
1 9 1050 0.82452107
2 10 1390 1.06360153
3
3 11 1210 0.92260536
4 12 1450 1.18927203
1 13 1088
2 14
4
3 15
4 16

Trimestre Periodo Indice Estacional

I 896.6666666667 0.8245210728
II 1156.6666666667 1.0636015326 1400
III 1003.3333333333 0.922605364
f(x) = 39.8718546401x + 828.3329448395
IV 1293.3333333333 1.1892720307 1200 R² ==0.849513697
f(x) 173.8451694086 l n(x) + 797.943275833
R² = 0.7097006553
1000

800

600

400

200

0
1 2 3 4 5
 Ventas Desestacionlizadas
Ventas Pronosticadas
Ventas Pronosticadas Desestacionalizadas
Error
909.618959 797.94 657.9183448276 -92
921.397695 918.4436373403 976.8580602516 -3
921.303987 988.933746385 912.3955790402 62
933.344072 1038.9472746807 1235.5909350992 126
1079.4145 1077.7407810767 888.6199850103 -1
1034.2219 1109.4373837253 1179.9993016174 80
1029.69269 1136.2364794133 1048.2978706618 98
1109.92268 1159.450912021 1378.9025405798 59
1273.46654 1179.9274927699 972.8750821612 -77
1306.8804 1198.244418417 1274.4545998183 -116
1311.50332 1214.814093176 1120.7939986084 -89
1219.23325 1229.9410210657 1462.7344557041 13

Ventas Pronosticadas

39.8718546401x + 828.3329448395
.849513697
173.8451694086 l n(x) + 797.943275833
.7097006553

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12