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In the 19th century, the adequacy and importance of classical economics declined. The
alternatives were:
- Marx and socialism
- Historical economics
- Marginalism: mainstream of neoclassical period
- Institutionalism
- Keynesian economics
There are two types of explanation for the transition of economic ideas/schools.
- External factors: changes in societal circumstances.
- Internal factors: failure of consistency of theories; increasingly instruments and
techniques prove inadequate.
Change from classicism to marginalism: Industrial revolution, classical economics was not
appropriate for this.
Why did economics start as a science in 1776? What was so special about Adam Smith’s Wealth
of Nations?
The Wealth of Nations stated that the division of labor will make wealth grow. People are
constantly trying to improve their conditions. People advance together, yet primarily out of self-
interest. However, this self-interest does not mean that some people benefit while others are hurt.
Interdependence results in mutual adjustments in behavior, and such patterns channel passions in
socially desirable directions. Not all rules need to be imposed to reach an agreement and to
promote coordination. The main idea behind this is that people can’t live without social
interaction.
Smith: self-interest yields a better societal result than acting out of social interest. This is in
contradiction to the common opinion that wanted to suppress self-interest to promote the general
interest. Besides self-interest, appropriate institutions are required for advancement of
individuals:
- Directing behavior of individuals into a contribution to the general interest.
- Offer opportunities and limitations; not necessarily a positive outcome for everyone.
In the middle ages, importance of the market, wage labor, and growth of economic activity
became more important. As a result, society transformed. Economics became subordinated to
political objectives, to increase state power.
Mercantilism
Political objectives were to increase wealth and power. Mercantilists were no longer
philosophers, but government officials and merchants. Growth of wealth and trade in a time of
increasing trade, emerging cities, and state building. Economics was the management of the
national household.
1. Wealth. Money = power. Wealth = stock of gold and silver. Wealth was strongly linked
to political/state power.
2. Sources of wealth.
- Natural resources
- Stealing from others
- Foreign trade: E > M (Thomas Mun)
3. Zero-sum game. Total world amount of wealth is fixed. One country’s gain is another
country’s loss. Economic warfare.
4. Government. Necessity of regulation
- Individual interest conflicts with national interest
- Market induces conflicts
- Advancing political objectives.
An important point of mercantilism is the regulation of the economy. Strengthening the economy
by a positive balance of trade.
1. Facilitating production, transport, and export
2. Measures to keep products cheap in comparison to foreign products. Low wages = low
cost of production = competitive advantage in foreign trade. Low wages also encourage
labor supply. How: large population, regulation of food prices. ‘Utility of poverty’
doctrine.
3. Improve tax revenues
4. Trading companies and colonies
5. Military.
Mercantilism Classicism
Wealth Money Consumer goods
Sources Foreign trade Division of labor and
accumulation of capital
Economic game Zero-sum Positive-sum
Government and interests National interest and National interest is sum of
individual interests conflict individual interests
Lecture 2
Explanation: Division of labor, specialization. Condition: extent of the market, and the use of
money. Division of labor implies exchange and thus the question of relative value of
commodities.
Value
- Use value
- Exchange value: the focus is on this.
1 How to measure exchange value? Disutility of labor (effort): index of wealth, to know whether
wealth has increased. Money is not an appropriate measure of value, because it fluctuates.
2 What determines exchange vale?
- Market price: depends on supply and demand. However, only in the short run,
temporary prices.
- Natural price: Long run price.
Distinction between primitive and advanced society. Primitive society: only 1 factor of
production: labor. Commodities exchange on the basis of the ratio of labor costs.
Advanced society: 3 factors of production: wage, rent, and profit. Wage + rent + profit = value of
good (costs of production) = sum of average rewards of factors of production = natural price,
stable in the long run.
As long as market price is not equal to the natural price, market adjustment process starts, driven
by self-interest of consumers/producers.
Results
- Equilibrium between market price and natural price is restored
- Natural rate of return on factors of production is equalized
- Supply = demand
- Efficient allocation of resources
- Price = real costs.
Driven by self-interest. Market power distorts market adjustments and accumulation of wealth.
Interplay of passions and institutions: trend of growth of liberty and wealth. Requires appropriate
institutions as interplay of interests and institutions may also have negative consequences.
Growth of wealth
- Division of labor labor productivity increases.
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3 classes in society
1. Capitalists: profit-income. Clever constructions at the expense of others, class interest
≠ interest of society.
2. Landowners: rent-income. Foolish and conservative, class interest = interest of society.
3. Laborers: wage-income. No power or notion, active and frugal, class interest =
interest of society.
Wealth of nations: optimism on long-run trend of growth of productivity, which would improve
the position of laborers.
However, in the 19th century, a more negative view developed. Due to population growth, profits
declined, capital accumulation declined, growth declined. Labor supply increased, wages
decreased. Demand for food increased, prices increased, which would lead to poverty. The only
class to benefit from population growth were the land-owners.
Population factor: key factor in the development of societies: ratio between population size and
means of subsistence.
Checks
Population grows geometrically, food production arithmetically.
5
The time it was published was the end of an era. The Industrial Revolution provided a new type
of economy: innovations, rising productivity, development of non-agrarian, industrial production,
and reallocation of resources.
Irish famine: seemed like evidence for Malthusian theory. However, this led to half-hearted
reactions, because they thought of it as something natural, inevitable.
Poor laws increased population size, which decreased wages, although food prices were rising,
leading to more poverty. According to Malthus, poor laws should be abolished.
His rent theory followed from the debate on Corn Laws, which were designed to regulate imports
in times of shortages.
The Corn Laws failed after 1790, because of Napoleonic wars, and population growth. However,
the debate started again in 1815.
Rent
- Originates in difference in cost of production as a consequence of differences in
fertility of land.
- It is not a reward for the use of a scarce resource.
- Is price-determined, not price-determining.
- If corn prices increase, rent increases.
- The Corn Laws created an artificial scarcity to the advantage of landowners.
Tutorial 1 – Physiocracy
The physiocratic school was wrong to consider industry and trade as sterile, this led also to the
false belief that only landowners should be taxed because only land could yield a surplus.
However, by studying society as a whole and circulation of goods and wealth, they founded
economics as a social science. Quesnay’s tableau economique is a precursor to later economic
flow diagrams and national income accounting. The law of diminishing returns was stated first by
Turgot. Furthermore, they also originated the analysis of tax shifting and incidence. Finally, the
physiocrats turned the attention of economists to the question of the proper role of government in
the economy.
Wealth Sources
Mercantilism Gold and silver Foreign trade
Physiocracy Consumption goods Agriculture (land)
Classicism Stock of (consumption) goods Labor, capital and land (total production)
Lecture 3
According to Ricardo, the aim of political economy is to determine the laws which regulate the
distribution of income.
Due to population growth and rising food prices, rent incomes increased. On marginal land: price
= cost of production = costs of labor + costs of capital = wages + profits, no rent is paid on
marginal land. Profit is a residue, the difference between the value of output of the last unit of
labor and the costs of that last unit of labor (costs of subsistence). Because of diminishing
marginal returns, the marginal output tends to fall to the level of subsistence, less and less room
for profits. Marginal output marginal costs.
Say’s Law
- General overproduction is impossible
- Production creates income
- Production factors receive a reward and the sum of rewards = value of production
output
- Purchasing power = value of output
- ‘Supply creates its own demand’. Overproduction is no problem: rejection of Malthus’
theory.
However, Say’s Law does not account for savings.
After Ricardo
1. Ricardians: McCulloch, John Stuart Mill.
2. Anti-Ricardo: theoretical objections: value theory; objections regarding methods.
3. Ricardian socialists: distribution.
1 Utilitarianism
Bentham’s utilitarianism:
1. An action is not in itself good or bad
2. Consequences: how it affects happiness
3. Positive and negative consequences: pleasures and pains
4. Maximization of surplus: the principle of utility.
The focus is on social utility, it is the greatest happiness for the greatest number that is the
measure of right and wrong (example with saving 1 or 6 people from getting killed by a tram).
There is also diminishing marginal utility of money: redistribution from the rich to the poor
would increases social utility. However, in redistribution, the principle of security (being rich and
feeling secured by possessions) should come before equity, because there should be an incentive
to exert effort for everyone.
2 Value theory
Bentham anticipated marginalism.
Likewise John Stuart Mill: revision of Ricardo’s value theory. Importance of both utility and
costs in determining exchange value. Factors of supply and demand (elasticity).
3 Method
William Nassau Senior: in political economy there is a distinction between science and art. The
science of political economy should be purely positive, not normative.
John Stuart Mill: Economics is a separate science. Abstraction and empirical research should be
used as method.
4 Distribution
Mill was no advocate of equality of property of income, but that ‘all start fair’.
Task of government is to promote equality of opportunity.
Distribution ≠ law of nature.
The distinction between production and distribution is also important. Production is characterized
by laws and absolute character. Distribution depends on laws and customs and can thus be
changed. There are no economic requirements or absolute rules regarding the distribution of
wealth. However, there are conditions, equality must be compatible with growth and incentives.
Process of growth promotes equality and softens competition, therefore reform of society is not
necessary.
After 1850, the classical school declined. The alternative that arose were marginalism, the
historical school, and socialism: utopian writers and Marx.
Historical School
In the historical school, there were conflicting opinions on the methods of political economy.
Schmoller
1. Economic relationships can only be understood in their socio-historical context.
2. Economics is an empirical (and not an abstract) science.
3. Inductive method: facts as starting-point for discovery of interrelations.
Menger
1. Economics is an abstract science.
2. Builds from assumptions and essences to deduce conclusions.
3. Deductive method.
Socialism
Socialism has had several meanings:
- Capitalism has grave moral flaws (excesses, inequality of wealth, income, power) → need
for socio-economic reforms to remedy these flaws.
- Socialism as economic system: state property of means of production, directive control of
investments, more equality.
- Socialism as stage in the development of society.
In general:
- Free operation of the market not beneficent to society.
- Conflicting interests of individuals and society.
- Regulating function of government to protect interests of society.
- Crises and depressions
- View of man and society: a man’s character is formed by his environment (society).
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Karl Marx
Materialist theory of history: Forces of production determine relations of production. Relations of
production determine economic structure. Economic structure determines political, ideological,
and legal structure (superstructure).
Relations of production } ↑
Propertied class ← ↑ → non-propertied class } ↑
↑ } ↑
Forces of production → needs } ↑
- Labor } → Economic structure
- Capital }
- Land }
- Technology }
- Production techniques }
- Resources }
Hegel: In society there is a thesis and an antithesis. The conflict between these two builds up until
it ‘explodes’ and a new ‘equilibrium’ develops. This new equilibrium is the synthesis.
Thesis: Forces of production } Synthesis: new superstructure
Antithesis: Relations of production }
In capitalism there is a conflict between capitalists and workers. Capitalists appropriate the fruits
of cooperation at the expense of workers, which have a weaker position. This conflict develops,
and as a result, there will be a new synthesis: socialist society.
Marx aimed to identify laws of motion (characteristics) of capitalism that lead to an ‘explosion of
the conflict’, which would lead to socialism and communism.
Influence of classicism:
- Labor theory of value
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Features of capitalism
1. Money-making
2. Labor is a commodity
1 Money-making
Natural exchange: commodity money commodity
Capitalism: money commodity new money new money > money
Production is the creation of exchange value for profit.
Exchange value = no intrinsic exchange value, value only exists in the comparison between
goods.
Exchange value = quantitative relationship between two different things which save something in
common of the same magnitude.
Common element in goods: labor (labor theory of value). Labor is what creates value, capital and
land are unproductive. This theory is somewhat similar to physiocracy, which also saw only one
factor which creates value. However, physiocrats thought it was land, Marx thought it was labor.
2 Labor as a commodity
- Labor is a marketable commodity.
- Capitalism is a perverted system, because it purchases labor to make money.
- Labor is abstract labor = average, homogeneous, simple labor = labor which only varies in
quantity, labor time.
- Value of a commodity is determined by labor time needed to produce a commodity under
normal conditions (socially necessary labor time).
Surplus value
Labor is the only commodity that creates value over own and above its own value (exchange
value = labor costs, use value = value of output of labor).
Surplus S = use value – exchange value = value of output of labor – wage costs
Workers work longer than necessary to produce value equal to wage costs, because the capitalists
appropriates surplus, it exploits labor.
Increasing S:
- Hours worked ↑ (is limited, market-determined)
- Productivity of labor per hour ↑
Investments in C: machines, technologies, economies of scale, substitution of labor.
Organic composition of capital C/V ↑. Internal inconsistency of capitalism falling rate of profit.
Profit = S/(C + V) = (S/V)/(C/V + 1) = surplus value rate / organic composition of capital.
C/V ↑ Profits ↓
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Why?
Competition between capitalists:
1. Labor market: drives up wages at expense of profits substitution
2. Commodity markets: competition forces capitalists to reduce costs to sell at lower prices
more efficient production techniques organic composition of capital increases.
Capitalists have to follow (2), otherwise they lose market share. This in an internal contradiction
of capitalism.
However, this is not inevitable, falling wages: S/V ↑. This was acknowledged by Marx, but he
just assumed a falling rate of profit.
Smith: Marx:
Capital accumulation } Labor- Growth
Division of labor } productivity ↑ labor-
Innovation } productivity
↑
Limits +
Ricardo: Diminishing returns
due to the exhaustion Wages at
of resources and land subsistence
as population increases level
with wages at subsistence-level
Value theory
Aristotle: distinction between exchange value and use value.
Scholastic writers
1. Demand factors: indigentia, need, utility in relation to scarcity
2. Supply factor: costs of production (‘labor and expenses’)
Marginalism focusses on demand factors. Neoclassicism combined classicism (supply) and
marginalism (demand).
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Smith
1. Focus on exchange value
2. Distinction between a primitive (labor) and an advanced economy (rewards for the use of
the factor of production)
3. Two questions mixed up:
- How does value arise (production, costs, distinction market and natural prices)
- How to measure value? (Labor).
Ricardo
1. Distinction primitive/advanced artificial
2. Use value condition for exchange value
3. Exchange value determined by scarcity and labor:
- Non reproducible commodities: scarcity
- Reproducible commodities: labor
4. Labor theory of value: the value of a commodity is determined by the amount of labor
time necessary to produce that commodity
Ricardo was more aware of importance of use value, use value is necessary for exchange value to
exist: scarcity or labor.
J.S. Mill had more a Smithian view on value: cost approach, focus on utility.
Marginalism
Consumption exchange distribution and production.
Focus on utility, satisfying wants. Utility or want is no condition for exchange value, utility is the
source of value. Utility, demand and price can be related, if a distinction is made between total
utility and marginal utility: X↑ → MUX↓ → P↓
Marginalism tried to model economics after natural sciences, to make it more scientific.
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Shortcoming of classic value theory: different value theories for different types of commodities,
no distinction between total and marginal utility, and prices are not determined by historical
costs.
Law of diminishing marginal utility: Gossen’s first law: X↑ → MUX (dTU/dX) ↓
Equimarginal rule (Jevons): Gossen’s second law: MUA/PA = MUB/PB = … = MUN/PN
Marginal revolution
1. Modeling of economics after the natural sciences
2. Consumers Producers
Demand → Prices → Supply → Allocation of means
↑
Wants/Income
3. In a way equally one-sided. Only second generation applies marginal analysis to supply-
side.
Tutorial 2
Age of Ricardo
1815-1848 Restoration period
- Aristocracy tried to restore traditional order against developments set in motion by the
Industrial Revolution.
- 18-15-1830: Age of Ricardo: conflict between landowners and industrialists + workers,
latter won, shared profits with landowners.
- Debate revolved around distribution of wealth; profit for capitalists vs. rent for
landowners.
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development utility
2 Level & time horizon Macro, long run Individual consumer/firm, micro
3 Focus, approach Policy issues, supply side Abstract/theoretical, demand side
4 Pricing theory Value = matter of production Value = utility through competition
Lecture 5
Edgeworth’s table displayed the diminishing returns and the distinction between average and
marginal product.
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Wicksteed: sum of rewards of the production factors on the basis of their marginal
products = value of total product, under conditions of perfect competition and constant
returns to scale.
3. Profit-problem: reward for capital is interest. If profit ≠ reward for production factor, then
how is it explained? MPT: In perfectly competitive markets and long-run equilibrium: TR
= TC, there are no profits in the long run.
4. Ethical implication. Clark: ‘if under perfect competition each production factor gets paid
according to their value of marginal product, the distribution of income is fair’.
Objections: claims on fairness cannot be derived from a theory which explains relations
between variables.
Supply became equally important as demand. There was a need to review old theories.
Léon Walras
Had a different approach than Jevons and Menger. Walras emphasized the economy as a system
of interdependence of variables. Supply and demand are interdependent. This approach led to his
general equilibrium model.
Demand
- People aim to satisfy their wants.
- Law of diminishing marginal utility.
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- Individuals take decisions at the margin: not whether he wants any but whether he wants a
bit more, comparing marginal utility with the price of an additional unit.
- Hence downward-sloping demand curve, since people insist on paying less for something
that yields less satisfaction (marginal utility). How much less people wanted to pay,
depends on the price elasticity of demand.
Consumer surplus
1. Downward-sloping demand curve, each next unit yields less marginal utility than the
previous unit.
2. If MUX decreases Price of good X also decreases.
3. This leads to the market price P.
4. Consumers were willing to pay more for the first units of consumption. They were willing
to pay above market price P.
5. The sum of these advantages of consumers = consumer surplus.
Maximization
Substitution at the margin. The assumption of rationality is important: resources are allocated
between commodities such that ratios of marginal utilities to prices of commodities are equal for
each commodity Equimarginal rule or Gossen’s second law.
Theory of demand
Time period is sufficiently short to allow for ceteris paribus assumption. This involves the
problem of aggregation. Again, the assumption of rationality is important. Preferences, person’s
wealth, purchasing power of money, and prices of substitutes are all constant.
Supply
- Supply curves slope upwards to the right: additional efforts or costs to increase production
requires extra incentives.
- Supply curve = marginal cost curve with nature of costs subjective: real costs. Marshall
spoke in terms of “real costs” when considering costs of production. By “real” he meant
ultimately the disutility of both the labor and the waiting involved in producing and
bringing a commodity to market. However, Marshall just assumed equality of real costs
and money costs.
- Supply price: sum of money to be paid for these extra efforts.
- Supply schedule: a locus of points linking in each case supply price to exertions necessary
for producing a given amount of a commodity.
- Distinction between prime (variable) and supplementary (fixed) costs.
- Time is the chief problem in economics: market period (very short run), short run, and
long run. The time periods are differentiated on the basis of the price elasticity of supply.
Market period: Price elasticity of supply = 0. Value is demand-driven, costs of production are
irrelevant.
Short run: Upward-sloping supply curve, supply can be adjusted, decisions depend on variable
costs.
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Long run: Supply is perfectly elastic and all costs are variable. Supply price depends exclusively
of costs of production.
Distribution
- Four inputs: land, labor, capital and organization.
- One unified theory of inputs/outputs.
- Decisions are taken at the margin: comparing the marginal product of an input to its costs,
adding units of inputs until marginal costs equal marginal product.
- Prices of factors of production are determined at the margin, entrepreneurs compare the
relative efficiency of factors of production, substituting to produce at lowest costs.
- Next to these pecuniary motives:
- Customs (wage rigidities).
- Duty (moral imperatives).
- Environment (influence of climate, race, geographical location and national
character on motives/desires).
- Approbation (people not only do things for money but also for esteem and
admiration).
Increasing consumer expenditures Standard of life ↑ Health, physical and mental strength,
and moral ↑ Efficiency of labor ↑ Production ↑ Income ↑ Increasing consumer
expenditures etc.
Lecture 6
Welfare economics
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Welfare economics arose out of concern for the persistence of poverty, how to increase and better
distribute wealth? What is welfare optimality/condition? What factors impede achievement of
maximal welfare? Role of government and how to determine the welfare effects of a policy?
Continental variant/Pareto
Pareto follows Walras’ general equilibrium model.
Conditions for maximizing welfare (Pareto-optimum):
- Optimal allocation of resources
- Optimal level of output
- Optimal distribution of goods.
This is seen as proof that perfectly competitive markets will bring about Pareto optimal
allocation, leading to maximal social welfare. This is proof of Adam Smith’s theory of free
market and invisible hand.
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Austrian economics
Austrian economics was close to neoclassical economics, but became more distant later on.
First generation: Menger, Von Böhm-Bawerk, Wieser.
Second generation: Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, Joseph Schumpeter.
Austrian school rejected formalism, use of mathematics in economics.
Austrian approach
- Model of explanation is based on individual plans and motives in which disequilibria in
the economy are emphasized.
- Objections against description of market process in terms of a static equilibrium model.
The economy is dynamic.
- Against the mathematical formalization of economic phenomena.
- Economic behavior takes place in a world of imperfect knowledge and uncertainty:
disequilibrium is the rule.
- And yet market works better than regulation.
The socialist debate was on the question if economic efficiency is achievable in an stated planned
system.
Mises: Common property of capital (goods) means no (factor) market, no pricing mechanism, no
efficient allocation of means.
Oscar Lange: Prices are indeed essential, but why would a central planning board be unable to
set prices and assume the role of the market? Lange used Walras’ general equilibrium model with
an auctioneer who sets the price.
Socialists seem to win the debate after this strong argument by Oscar Lange. However…
Friedrich Hayek
1. Central planning board is unable to solve the problem of information. Prices also convey
information, it is a mechanism of translating information into prices. The social planning
board is unable to perform this task, which is performed by the market.
2. Socialism is incompatible with liberty. Social planning begins with economic choices,
distorts individual choices and wants, and will eventually control the entire society, it will
turn into a totalitarian state.
Joseph Schumpeter
Agreed with Marx that capitalism will collapse and will be replaced with socialism. In his book
Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy he describes three factors that will contribute to the fall of
capitalism.
1. Entrepreneurial function grows obsolete. Entrepreneur will be replaced by a manager,
who wants to consolidate the business, there will be less innovation.
2. Destruction of the political strata.
3. Destruction of the institutional framework of capitalism.
Society moves to socialism, Schumpeter described long-run economic developments.
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Institutionalism
Institutionalism originated in the United States around 1900. It arose in times with robber
capitalism and labor conflicts. There was a challenge to laissez-faire policy in the face of
monopolies, depression, and poverty. This contributed to the debate on the reorganization of
society (socialism) and reforms.
Institutionalism built from the ideas of the Historical school. It criticized (neo)classical thought
for the explanation of economic phenomena:
- From abstracting individual choices.
- With given objections and preferences.
- With given institutions.
This method abstracts from what really matters in the economy.
Individual choices are not fully rational, but are influenced by character, environment, society,
and institutions.
1. Preferences, behavior etc. are determined by social or institutional context.
2. Institutions as starting-point of economic analysis.
3. Rejection of the notion of equilibrium.
The economy is a process of continuous structural adjustments to changing societal and
technological circumstances.
Thorstein Veblen
Veblen started the economic analysis from institutions.
Institutions: patterns of behavior which we unconsciously adopt as we are socialized as
members of our society.
Criticism on (neo)classicism
1. Simplistic view of man: choice behavior ≠ utility maximizing. But social process:
institutions determine how people act and choose.
2. Outdated concept of change is assuming some end-state.
3. Assumption of harmony of interests and equilibrium.
4. Notion that capitalists produce socially desirable results.
There is a tension between these instincts. The self-regarding instinct gets the upper hand. There
is a drive to gain at the expense of others. This drive tends to reduce social welfare.
Formalist revolution
1. Growing use of mathematical techniques and tools.
2. Emphasis on theory and development of theory.
3. Institutional context disappears.
4. Interest in Walras’ general equilibrium model and condition and stability of equilibrium.
The contrast between neoclassicism and the Austrian school became more pronounced due to this
formalization of economics.
Developments in microeconomics
- Shift from Marshallian (partial equilibrium) economics to Walrasian (general equilibrium)
economics.
- Less attention for historical and institutional factors and policy issues.
- Mathematical formalization.
- Market process in terms of equilibrium.
Tutorial 3
Neoclassicism
- Static system of general equilibrium
- Individual interests culminate in harmonious outcome. Positive approach to interest, there
is no need for government intervention.
- Laissez-faire, free markets, limited government intervention. Although Pigou was in favor
of government intervention in some cases.
- Alfred Marshall (his view is more radical), Milton Friedman.
Institutionalism
- Dynamic, evolutionary perspective.
- Society is characterized by conflicts of interest and power structures. Negative approach
to interests.
- Thorstein Veblen.
- Sum of individual interests ≠ social interest.
Disequilibrium Equilibrium
Market Austrian School Neoclassicism
Government Institutionalism Keynesianism
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Austrian School
Uncertainty, subjectivity (no perfect foresight, personal opinions play a role), evolutionary
approach. Coordination problem: economic science is too complex. Government should not want
to think that it can replace the economic system, government intervention is undesirable.
Knowledge can be incomplete and imperfect, this leads to a disequilibrium.
Keynesianism
Focus is on the demand-side of the economy.
Animal spirits: urge to consume pushes economic activities forward: effective demand is the
most important determinant of national income, output, and unemployment.
Instability: producers and consumers are either too optimistic or too pessimistic about
consumption, savings, and investments Business cycle. This instability is an argument for
government intervention.
Government intervention: government needs to smoothen/stabilize erratic expectations and
sentiments through active fiscal and monetary policies.
Chicago school
- Originates from neoclassical, Marshallian economics, with its emphasis on
microeconomics, equilibrium approach, rational choice, and optimizing behavior.
- Belief in the efficiency of free markets, to allocate resources and distribute income.
- Skepticism about government intervention.
Monetarism
Keynes: fight depression by fiscal and monetary policy, pumping money into the economy.
Friedman: quantity of money is the key factor in producing inflation.
Monetarism (Friedman)
1. Change in money supply is the only systematic factor influencing overall level of
spending and economic activity
2. Only action required to ensure prosperity and price stability is for the central bank to stick
to the golden rule: rate of growth of money supply = real state of economic growth.
Monetarism was motivated by a dislike of Keynesian economics and its interventionist
policies. In general, stabilization policies either don’t work or make things worse.
Lecture 7
In the first decades of the 20th century, Marshallian economics was dominant. It became even
more dominant when American institutionalism lost support. This dominance of Marshallian
economics led to a formalization of economics, and an increasing use of mathematics. The focus
was on equilibrium, especially on the Walrasian general equilibrium model. However, business
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cycles also gained interest from the academic community. This interest firstly was of empirical
nature (Mitchell), but later on it was also of theoretical interest (Austrian School, which focused
on uncertainty and disequilibrium). Keynes combined the business cycle with neoclassical
economics.
Explanations of fluctuations
1. Overinvestment theories: fluctuations in investments, a disequilibrium between the
production of capital goods and the production of consumer goods. There are two types of
arguments explaining why these fluctuations arise.
- Monetary factors (Mises, Hayek): interest rates.
- Discoveries and innovations (Schumpeter).
2. Underconsumption (Keynes): insufficiency of consumer expenditures/demand (which is
to some extent in line with Malthus’ theory). Keynes combined the underconsumption
with
3. Psychological explanation: emphasizing changes in expectations.
Existence of interest: higher values of present goods as compared to future goods. A ‘premium’
for not delaying consumption.
- Increase of flow of income in the future → marginal utility of present goods is higher,
therefore they have a higher value.
- Positive time preference: future is uncertain, therefore people want to consume as soon as
possible.
- Roundabout production: use of capital in production, money is ‘locked up’ in the process.
The producer is compensated for not using his money by interest.
Interest is the reward for postponing consumption.
Consumers make a decision what to do with their income, determined by the interest rate:
1. Present consumption?
2. Or postpone consumption and save?
Producers make a decision what to do with their investments, determined by the interest rate.
1. Production processes which yield a direct return?
2. Or production processes which are more productive, but yield a (higher) return later?
Knut Wicksell
Wicksell used Böhm-Bawerk’s theory of interest to show the influence of changes in the rate of
interest on the real economy.
Natural interest rate: the interest rate at which savings = investments.
Market interest rate: the interest rate at which the banking system lends/creates credit.
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Start of expansion: when banks expand credit above level of savings, which leads to a lower
market interest rate. Consequently, investments become more attractive, which increases the
demand for investment goods.
Prices of consumer goods ↑ → market interest rate ↑ → reallocation of resources → eventually a
depression.
Friedrich Hayek
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The London School of Economics challenged Cambridge (Keynes) with Hayek as front man,
however, LSE (Hayek) lost the battle. Later on, he became a professor in Chicago, one of the
main figures of the Chicago School. He was in favor of free markets, because of the complexity
of the economy, which could not be replaced by government intervention. He believed in the
market as a self-correcting mechanism.
Friedrich Hayek explained how an artificially low interest rate induces malinvestments.
Time profile of decisions:
- Households: preferred distribution between present and future consumption.
- Producers: planning of distribution of production for present and future consumption.
Credit expansion → supply of capital ↑ → market interest rate ↓ → investments become more
attractive → investments in higher stages of production → shifting output of consumer goods
towards a more distant future (longer time profile). However, future demand is not present, due to
the shorter time profile of households.
Given low interest rate, consumers tend to shorten time profile.
Result: investment profile ≠ public planned savings, creating a crisis.
With consumption and investments both increasing, an expansion starts, creating competition for
resources between longer/shorter production processes. A crisis develops as soon as investments
cannot be profitably completed and terminated.
This is a monetary explanation of fluctuations. Hayek was close to neoclassicism, in the sense
that he assumed a normal process of restoring the equilibrium. Keynes objected to this
assumption.
Central role for animal spirits: psychological condition of decisions taken by economic agents,
this leads to instability. Government should stability these animal spirits.
Rejection of Say’s law: urge to consume (demand) drives economy, not supply. Aggregate
demand is crucial for Keynesian economics.
Consumption: determined by subjective (psychological) and objective (interest, distribution,
expectations) factors. Propensity to consume is determined by subjective factors.
Investments: decision based on expected return (unstable and erratic) and costs (interest rate).
This is all about expectations, which often depend on irrational sentiments, which leads to
fluctuations.
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This mechanism failed because it is simply untrue that during a depression there is an unused pile
of savings ready for investments. On the contrary: income declines, low savings. With low levels
of output and employment, there may be a stable equilibrium in which S = I holds. However, this
would be low levels of savings and investments. Savings don’t have an effect on the interest rate,
due to their low level, there is no correcting mechanism. This stable equilibrium may go on for a
long time.
Keynes also criticized the classical labor model of supply and demand, where unemployment can
be reduced by lowering the real wage until supply equals demand. This aggravates the entire
situation.
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Overview
Eras
Industrial Revolution (1760 – 1830)
The Industrial Revolution is one of the most significant changes in recent human history. The
transition included people moving from countryside to larger cities, going from hand production
to the use of machines, increased use of steam power and going from wood and other bio-fuels to
the use of coal. For the first time in recent history the living standard of the masses of ordinary
people began experienced a sustainable growth. The classical school was largely influenced by
the industrial revolution and thus influenced economics.
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Schools
Physiocrats (1710 – 1765)
Physiocracy is an economic theory developed by the Physiocrats, a group of economists who
believed that the wealth of nations was derived solely from the value of “land agriculture” or
“land development.” Their theories originated in France and were most popular during the second
half of the 18th century. Physiocracy is perhaps the first well-developed theory of economics.
- Quesnay
- Cantillon
- Tourgot.
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- People have rational preferences among outcomes that can be identified and associated
with a value.
- Individuals maximize utility and firms maximize profits.
- People act independently on the basis of full and relevant information.
- Jevons
- Menger
- Walras
- Von Weiser
- Von Böhm-Bawerk
- Marshall
- Wicksell
- Fisher
- Slutsky
- Pareto
- Hicks
Economists
Petty, William (1623 – 1687)
Contributions to classical political economy in methods, concepts and analysis. Argued for
optimal taxation. A notion of surplus.
Quesnay, Francois (1694 – 1774)
“Tableau Economique” – circular flow of economy – and founder of Physiocrats. Agriculture
only sector that produced net surplus.
Cantillon, Richard (1697 – 1734) His only work rediscovered by Jevons. Influenced by Petty.
Land/Labor theory of value. Demand/Supply determining market prices. Major influence on
Quesnay.
Smith, Adam (1723 – 1790) Adam Smith is without doubt one of the most important economist
throughout history. Although most of the content in “The Wealth of Nations” were already
discussed by earlier economist Smith put together theoretical elements in a convincing manner
and appeared to be dealing with the real world instead of theoretical aspects. He wrote on the
productive organization, the causes of economic growth, value and distribution. His most famous
theory is that of the invisible hand.
Tourgot, Anne (1727 – 1781)
Realized decreasing returns in agriculture. Analysis of productive use of capital in all sectors.
Forerunner to Adam Smith. Laissez-faire.
Bentham, Jeremy (1748 – 1832)
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Bentham was the founder of the utilitarian ethics and not an economist, but has none the less
been extremely important for the development of economics.
Mill, James (1763 – 1836)
James Mill was along with Ricardo one of the founders of the classical school. However, his
contributions has been rather overshadowed by his son, John Stuart Mill, and by his colleague
Ricardo.
Malthus, Thomas (1766 – 1834)
Argued against economist which believed in limitless improvement of society. Malthus placed
the longer-term stability of the economy above short-term expediency and thought that the
dangers of population growth would preclude endless progress towards a utopian society.
Say, Jean-Bapiste (1767 – 1832)
Say was a French economist who became most famous for the “Say Law”, stating that “supply
creates its own demand”. He had classical liberal views, and argued for free trade.
Ricardo, David (1772 – 1823)
Ricardo demonstrated the possibilities of using the abstract method of reasoning to formulate
economic theories. Ricardo’s theorizing attracted a band of a scholars, corroborating, amending
and extending his theories. His most important topics can be summarized to:
- The Theory of Rent
- The Labor Theory of Value
- The Distribution Problem
- The Currency Question
- Comparative Advantage
- Ricardian Equivalence.
Von Thünen, Johann Hermann (1783 – 1850)
Von Thünen was an important contributor to the ideas of profit maximization and marginal
productivity. One important insight was the idea of diminishing returns, i.e. how marginal
productivity varies with factor inputs. The importance of going from one factor to two factors
should not be underrated, this was the major contribution by von Thünen. The works and ideas of
von Thünen was, however, not very noted in his own time and did not get much attention before
the rediscovery by Jevons.
Cournot, Antoine Augustin (1801 – 1877) Cournot had unique insights in applying
mathematics in economics and social sciences and contributed in the theory of prices, monopoly
and perfect competition. Cournot’s ‘demand function’ is not a demand schedule in the modern
sense, it summarizes the empirical relationship between price and quantity sold, rather than the
conceptual relationship between price and the quantity sought by buyers. Cournot’s function is
not derived from theories of individual behavior, he notes that the “accessory ideas of utility,
scarcity, and suitability to the needs and enjoyments of mankind…are variable and by nature
indeterminate, and consequently ill-suited for the foundation of a scientific theory” (Cournot,
1838: p.10). Also Cournot’s works was mostly recognized with the marginal breakthrough in the
1870’s.
Dupuit, Arsène Jules Étienne (1804 – 1866)
Dupuit made the first successful connection between marginal utility and demand, though only
on an individual level and did not make any comments upon the aggregate. His remarkable effort
at developing a cost-benefit analysis of public works led him to draw the demand curve in price-
quantity space. Unlike Cournot, Dupuit did not rest his demand curve on empirical intuition but
rather identified the demand curve as the marginal utility curve itself.
Mill, John Stuart (1806 – 1873)
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Mill’s work on economics were much influenced by his utilitarian views. His early economic
philosophy was one of free markets. However, he accepted interventions in the economy, such as
a tax on alcohol, if there were sufficient utilitarian grounds. He also supported the Malthusian
theory of population. By population he meant the number of the working class only. He was
therefore concerned about the growth in number of laborers who worked for hire. He believed
that population control was essential for improving the condition of the working class so that they
might enjoy the fruits of the technological progress and capital accumulation. He propagated
birth control as against moral restraint.
Gossen, Hermann Heinrich (1815 – 1858)
Gossen independently presented, in 1854, a theory where demand was derived from the process
of utility-maximizing by the consumer. However, Gossen’s work did not gain much publicity and
thus were not discovered by Jevons until after publishing «The Theory of Political Economy» in
1871. Gossen’s second law is the crucial one and often referred to nowadays just as ‘Gossen’s
Law’. The idea that, at the margin, the consumer substitutes between goods to obtain the same
marginal utility across goods, yields the downward-sloping demand curve for each of the goods.
When the price of a good rises, the marginal utility in terms of money (MU i/pi) declines and thus
(by Gossen’s first law), less of that good will be bought.
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Alfred Marshall succeeded Ricardo and J.S. Mill as the great name of British economics. He
dominated the scene through eight editions of “Principles of Economics” from 1890 to 1920. The
700-page book was like a Bible for British economists and used in universities in other countries
as well. Marshall is regarded as founder of the Cambridge School of Economics. He used the
ideas of predecessors from Ricardo to Jevons and added a number of useful tools, concepts and
graphs.
Edgeworth, Francis Ysidro (1845 – 1926)
Edgeworth was the leading economist in Britain next to Marshall. His innovative brilliance made
him influential long after Marshall was virtually forgotten. Edgeworth applied utilitarianism as
the appropriate principle of distributive justice through a contractarian approach. He also argued
for maximum utility as the single principle in social sciences. Edgeworth used Lagrange
multipliers and even calculus of variations, techniques few economists were familiar with. The
book was difficult to read, because of both content and style. It was in this book that Edgeworth
introduced the generalized utility function, U(x, y, z, …), and drew the first indifference curves.
Utility curves entered in almost everything Edgeworth did in economics. He was the first to apply
formal mathematical techniques to individual decision making in economics. Jevons had studied
the equilibrium when all agents took prices as given, Edgeworth was concerned with
understanding how an equilibrium could be reached among few or many agents through
contracting. Such contracting led generally to multiple possible outcomes. Edgeworth’s
achievement was to show the conditions under which competition between buyers and sellers,
through a barter process, lead to the same point as when all agents act as price takers.
Edgeworth’s attitude to taxation was similar to that of the major classical economists (and unlike
Wicksell), in rejecting a benefit approach on the argument that taxation is not an economic
bargain governed by competition, it is about determining the distribution of taxes for common
purposes.
distributed lag regression, life cycle saving theory, the ‘Phillips curve’, ‘consumption tax’ rather
than ‘income tax’, the modern quantity theory of money, real vs. nominal interest rates, and many
other standard tools in economists’ kits. Fisher was not fully appreciated by his contemporaries,
partly because he was far ahead of others, partly due to the reputation he lost.
Slutsky, Evgeny E. (1880 – 1948
Slutsky was a mathematician, statistician and economist, known in economics mainly for the
1915 article, which was unnoticed until the mid-1930s but influenced the further development of
consumer theory. Building on earlier work by Pareto, Slutsky showed that the effect of a price
change on the quantity demanded can be divided into two effects, which we are familiar with as
the Slutsky equation.
monographs, books, scholarly articles, papers, magazine columns, television programs, videos,
and lectures, and cover a broad range of topics of microeconomics, macroeconomics, economic
history, and public policy issues.
Source: http://www.preceden.com/timelines/67774-history-of-economics
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