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Pitting Degradation Modelling of Ocean Steel Structures using Bayesian

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Article  in  Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering · April 2017

DOI: 10.1115/1.4036832

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 Jyoti Bhandari
Australian Maritime College,
University of Tasmania,
Launceston TAS 7250, Australia
Pitting Degradation Modeling
Faisal Khan1 of Ocean Steel Structures Using
Centre for Risk, Integrity and
Safety Engineering (C-RISE),
Faculty of Engineering and
Bayesian Network
Applied Science,
Memorial University of Newfoundland, Modeling depth of long-term pitting corrosion is of interest for engineers in predicting
St. John’s, NF A1B 3X5, Canada the structural longevity of ocean infrastructures. Conventional models demonstrate poor
e-mail: fikhan@mun.ca quality in predicting the long-term pitting corrosion depth. Recently developed phenome-
nological models provide a strong understanding of the pitting process; however, they
Rouzbeh Abbassi have limited engineering applications. In this study, a novel probabilistic model is devel-
Australian Maritime College, oped for predicting the long-term pitting corrosion depth of steel structures in marine
University of Tasmania, environment using Bayesian network (BN). The proposed BN model combines an under-
Launceston TAS 7250, Australia standing of corrosion phenomenological model and empirical model calibrated using
real-world data. A case study, which exemplifies the application of methodology to pre-
dict the pit depth of structural steel in long-term marine environment, is presented. The
Vikram Garaniya result shows that the proposed methodology succeeds in predicting the time-dependent,
Australian Maritime College,
long-term anaerobic pitting corrosion depth of structural steel in different environmental
University of Tasmania,
and operational conditions. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4036832]
Launceston TAS 7250, Australia
Keywords: offshore structures, pitting corrosion, pit depth, Bayesian network,
Roberto Ojeda phenomenological model
Australian Maritime College,
University of Tasmania,
Launceston TAS 7250, Australia

1 Introduction studied with plenty of interest for some time [9–11]. There are
many potential factors that influence pitting corrosion when sub-
Pitting corrosion is a significant potential threat to existing
jected to marine exposure. The influence of environmental factors
marine and offshore infrastructures. It affects the service life of
such as temperature, bacterial community, oxygen concentration,
process equipment and pipelines, and it may result in structural
pH, and velocity for pitting corrosion growth has been previously
failure, leakage, production loss, environmental pollution, and the
studied by several researchers [10,12–17]. Recently, Bhandari
loss of life [1]. Pitting corrosion is regarded as one of the most
et al. [10] reported a wide spectrum of factors that control the pit-
hazardous forms of corrosion in marine and offshore structures
ting corrosion growth and their effects were reviewed.
because its attack is widespread. It generates severe localized
The pitting process has previously been described as random,
damage and is difficult to detect, thereby causing failures. The
sporadic, and stochastic phenomena. In addition, the prediction of
total loss of the materials might be very small but the local rate of
time and location of the pit remains particularly difficult to esti-
attack can be extensive and can lead to early and catastrophic fail-
mate [18]. Conventionally, researchers have simply relied on
ure [2,3]. The oil and gas industry is expanding with a large
mathematical models to estimate the depth of pitting corrosion
increase in offshore platforms, supply vessels, pipelines, under-
and to predict the likely future deterioration of offshore structures
water and floating storages, and shore facilities. However, due to
over long periods of time [19,20]. Katano et al. [21] proposed a
the “build and forget” mentality of the industrial society, the long-
predictive model for pit growth in underground pipes. They pre-
term structural reliability of these structures is still not fully
scribe to the theory that the pitting corrosion rate for metal
understood [4,5].
depends on environmental factors and pitting depth. This relation-
Pitting corrosion in offshore steel structures has a particular
ship was explored through regression analysis, with pitting depth
importance where containment is critical, such as for pressure ves-
as a dependent variable and the environmental factors as inde-
sels, boilers, turbine blades, and metallic containers handling toxic
pendent variables. However, the effect of exposure period on pit-
materials. It also greatly affects the localized structural strength of
ting depth was not considered even though the pitting corrosion
piping, tanks, and general load-bearing structures within ships and
depth is directly influenced by the exposure time. Similarly,
offshore structures [6,7]. Consequently, the knowledge of pitting
Guedes Soares et al. [20] studied the effects of different environ-
corrosion is crucial. This is not only critical in the design phase
mental factors on pitting corrosion behavior of steel plates totally
but is also equally so for assessing any deterioration in the
immersed in salt water conditions. They proposed a corrosion
ongoing strength of offshore structures.
wastage model based on a nonlinear time-dependent function. The
A quantitative understanding is necessary of how the corrosion
model developed in their study accounts for the effect of various
occurs as a function of exposure time and under various environ-
environmental factors including salinity, temperature, dissolved
mental influences. It is also essential to predict the likely depth of
oxygen, pH, and flow velocity [20]. Nevertheless, these models do
corrosion for future defined conditions [8]. The effects of pitting
not incorporate the corrosion phenomenological model presented
corrosion on steel structures in marine environment have been
in Fig. 1. Furthermore, these models are only effective for a spe-
cific site and they are not capable of being updated when new
1
Corresponding author. observations are available. Another approach for pit depth uncer-
Contributed by the Ocean, Offshore, and Arctic Engineering Division of ASME
for publication in the JOURNAL OF OFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING.
tainty estimation and modeling the maximum depth of pits is
Manuscript received February 9, 2016; final manuscript received April 12, 2017; extreme value analysis (EVA). However, the extreme value analy-
published online June 9, 2017. Assoc. Editor: Lance Manuel. sis is not based on the corrosion phenomenological model; it is

Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering OCTOBER 2017, Vol. 139 / 051402-1
C 2017 by ASME
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Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of the theoretical nonlinear corro-
sion model (Adapted from Ref. [24])
simply a means to determine the best probability density function
(PDF) to fit the empirical data. The EVA approaches are generally
used for a specific point in time at which the data are available.
There is no obvious link between the EVA and the corrosion phe-
nomenological model [22,23].
Melchers and Jeffrey [24] describe a more recent progress in
the development of a phenomenological model for corrosion loss
and for maximum pit depth. This model is based on corrosion sci-
ence that includes the critical role of microbiological activity
[16,24,25]. Figure 1 shows the developed phenomenological
model based on corrosion principles including a number of
sequential phases 1–4, i.e., kinetic, diffusion, transition, and
anaerobic phases. In this phenomenological model, stage 2 indi-
cates the theoretical point at which anaerobic conditions are
reached. Anaerobic conditions are favorable for the activation and
growth of sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) [19]. The phenomeno-
logical model in Fig. 1 is widely acknowledged and accepted in
the field of corrosion science and engineering. Additionally, each
of these phases is believed to control the corrosion processes in
both the short- and long-term [5,10,26–29].
Melchers [30] reported a mathematical and probabilistic model
for corrosion loss/pitting depth of the structures exposed in sea
water. In their probabilistic model, the corrosion loss c(t, E) was
represented by a probabilistic function
cðt; EÞ ¼ bðt; EÞ  f ðt; EÞ þ eðt; EÞ (1)
where t is the exposure time to be contained in the vector E of
environmental and materials parameters, f(t, E) is the mean-value
function for corrosion loss, e(t, E) is a zero-mean error function,
and b(t, E) is a bias function, all as functions of t and E [19,31].
The introduction of a probabilistic framework eliminates the
uncertainty associated with the data when calibrating it to the
empirical model [30]. The probabilistic approach has been suc-
cessfully used in many engineering areas including reliability and
integrity management of complex systems, complex load systems,
and resistance modeling. Several researchers [20,29,32–35]
adopted the most widely applied “power law” model to represent
the growth of the pit with respect to the exposure time (Eq. (2)).
The growth of the pit as a function of time is a representative rela-
tionship where dðtÞ is a characteristic dimension such as pit depth,
and t is the exposure time, while A and B are empirical constants
calibrated using experimental data
dðtÞ ¼ AtB (2)
Equation (2) represents the time-dependent pitting corrosion depth
for long-term corrosion (quasi-steady-state situation) phase. This
power law model had been previously applied by Melchers to
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represent the overall pitting corrosion growth for aluminum and
steel alloys. However, Melchers later reported that the power law
model is not consistent with the overall growth of pitting corro-
sion depth; it is only applicable for the first (kinetic or initiation)
phase and the fourth (long-term anaerobic) phase of the pitting
corrosion process shown in Fig. 1. In this study, the power law
model is applied to represent the pitting corrosion depth in long-
term exposures shown in Fig. 1. Parameters for the power law
model were determined from long-term experimental field data.
The long-term phase is believed to be controlled by the amount of
bacterial activity, and the available nutrients for them to grow.
The models discussed so far provide a strong understanding of
the corrosion process; however, they are often hard to apply to
real-world engineering applications. Although these models are
useful for specific site or operating conditions, they still carry
high uncertainty associated with certain data because some data
points may be incorrect owing to errors in observation or data
processing. Hence, it is essential to use Bayesian statistics to
develop a corrosion loss/pitting depth model which considers
“prior” knowledge of the corrosion process involved, together
with data used, in order to calibrate it to a real-world situation.
Melchers [30] also emphasized the importance of developing
probabilistic models such as using Bayesian statistics in future
models for predicting corrosion loss/pitting depth. This paper
presents a novel methodology that has a high degree of pitting
depth prediction capability based on the theoretical corrosion loss
model, the empirical pit depth model, and using Bayesian network
(BN). It focuses on the development of a predictive model
adequate for long-term anaerobic conditions in marine environ-
ments. The proposed methodology is tested and validated using
the data obtained from field testing accompanied by ASTM world-
wide corrosion study [36].
2 Bayesian Network
Bayesian network is a graphical model that connects the causes
(independent variables) and consequences (dependent variables)
through direct arrows pointing from the causes to the consequen-
ces [37–39]. The BN offers a formal method for encoding joint
probability distributions using a set of statistical variables in
which the information about independencies is explicitly sepa-
rated from numerical quantities [40]. Figure 2(a) represents a
schematic structure of BN; the arrow in the figure represents
causal relationship between the variables (A and B) through the
probability distributions function illustrated in Fig. 2(b). BN
allows estimating likelihood of rare failure events of complex
structures in an efficient way. It also assists in updating the predic-
tion by using new information obtained through measurements,
monitoring, and inspection [41].
In BN, “probability inference of an event is conditional on the
observed evidence.” BN not only implements forward or predic-
tive analysis, but it also performs backward or diagnostic analysis.
Considering the conditional dependencies of variables, BN repre-
sents the joint probability distribution P(U) of variables U ¼
fA1 ::::::An g as
Yn
PðUÞ ¼ PðA1 jPaðAi ÞÞ (3)
i¼1
where Pa(Ai) is the parent set of Ai in the BN, and P(U) reflects
the properties of the BN [42]. BN takes advantages of Bayes’
theorem to update the prior occurrence (or failure) given that the
observation of another set of variables evidence E. The posterior
probability distribution of a particular variable can be computed
using different classes of inference algorithms, such as the junc-
tion tree or variable elimination, based on Bayes’ theorem
(Eq. (4)) [43–45]
PðU; EÞ PðU; EÞ
PðUjEÞ ¼ ¼X (4)
Pð EÞ PðU; EÞ
U
Transactions of the ASME
 Fig. 2 Structure of BN model (the arrow in the network represents the relationship between
the nodes through the probability distributions function) [28]
The denominator in Eq. (4) is called the probability of observation
and is the sum of all the conditional probabilities of E given
events, and U multiplied by the probabilities of U. The prior and
posterior probabilities can also be considered as “causes” and
“consequences” of a process. The term consequences is a relation-
ship between two events in a process—one leading to the other.
An example would be the presence of sulfate-reducing bacteria
and other environmental factors leading to pitting corrosion of
steel structures in a marine environment.
3 Statistical Data Analysis Using Gaussian Kernel
Density Estimator
The application of probability density estimation is the informal
investigation of the properties of a given set of data [46]. A Kernel
density estimator (KDE) is a nonparametric technique used to esti-
mate the PDF of the random variable. Nonparametric density esti-
mation is particularly valuable for exploratory data analysis and in
situations where available information is insufficient to specify a
parametric model. These methods are “hypersensitive” and no
assumptions are needed beyond the smoothing of the functions to
be estimated. Hence, the advantage of using Kernel distributions
is that it produces a nonparametric PDF that adapts itself to the
data rather than selecting a density with a particular parametric
form and estimating the parameters [47]. It must also be noted
that the PDF, estimated using the nonparametric approach such as
KDE, requires less assumptions to be made about the distributions
of the observed data.
Lehmann [48] stated that KDE is an alternative to the paramet-
ric approach in which one specifies a model up to a small number
of parameters and then estimates the parameters via the likelihood
principle. The advantage of the nonparametric approach is that it
offers a far greater flexibility in modeling a given data set and,
unlike the classical approach, it is not affected by specification
bias. A nonparametric density estimator such as KDE can also be
used for the summarization of Bayesian posteriors, classification,
and discriminant analysis. In addition to this, the application of
nonparametric density estimators such as KDE is reported to be
useful in Monte Carlo computational methods, such as the
smoothed bootstrap method and the particle filter method [47].
In this study, the Gaussian kernel density estimator was used to
estimate the PDF for one-dimensional data. Given N independent
realizations XN ¼ ðX1 ; X2 ::::; XN Þ from an unknown continuous
PDF f on X, the Gaussian kernel density estimator is defined as
1X N
f^ð x; tÞ ¼ /ð x; Xi ; tÞ (5)
N i¼1
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ðxX Þ2 =ð2tÞ
where /ðx; Xi ; tÞ ¼ ð1= p2pt
ffi Þe
i
is a Gaussian PDF with
location Xi and scale t. The scale is usually referred to as
bandwidth.
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The performance of the Gaussian KDE depends significantly on
the value of smoothing parameters, which is known as bandwidth
[47]. The Gaussian kernel is assumed, and the smoothing parame-
ters’ “bandwidth” is assumed using asymptotic approximation of
mean integrated squared error (AMISE). It is performed by apply-
ing the asymptotic approximation to the random sample. The
computational software MATLAB is used in converting the one-
directional data to nonparametric Gaussian Kernel PDF. To
validate that Gaussian KDE is the better approach to develop PDF
for the obtained data set, Normality test was also conducted using
Anderson– Darling test considering Gaussian KDE.
Figure 3 is the illustrative comparison of different PDFs with
parametric and nonparametric density functions for the data
adapted from the ASTM world-wide corrosion test [36]. The
Gaussian KDE is tested between normal and logistic PDF. The X-
axis in Fig. 3 represents the calibrated data for power law constant
B. As illustrated in Fig. 3, the nonparametric KDE function best
fits the data.
Figure 4 shows the normality test conducted using Anderson–
Darling test considering normal distributions for environmental
parameter “salinity.” Based on this analysis, it is clear that the
data do not follow normal distributions, and the p-value is less
than or equal to the significance level; hence, the decision is to
reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the salinity data do
not follow normal distribution. Also, it is visually clear from the
normality test that the data points do not follow the fitted distribu-
tion line and the data are skewed from a curved line.
4 Development of Methodology-Pit Depth Modeling
Long-term pitting corrosion depth prediction and identification
in marine and offshore structures is a complex problem for a num-
ber of reasons [49]. The pit takes place on a very small scale with
passive film in nanometers of thickness and with initiation sites of
similar sizes. Immediately after initiation, the pit growth rate can
be extremely high [3]. Due to the complex nature of pitting corro-
sion, no specific methodology exists for predicting the precise pit-
ting depth under long-term anaerobic conditions. Researchers
have performed several lab and field experiments in order to iden-
tify pitting corrosion loss; however, most of these attempts were
in order to find the relationship between pitting depth and the
environmental factors [3,20]. These assessments have not been
successful in developing a model that predicts the future pitting
depth in long-term anaerobic conditions.
In this study, an advanced methodology that integrates a proba-
bilistic approach with the phenomenological and empirical models
is presented to predict the pitting depth. The BN is used as a prob-
abilistic data-modeling tool to model complex statistical relation-
ships between inputs such as environmental factors and materials
properties and pitting depth. The overall steps of the proposed
methodology, as presented in Fig. 5, are divided into two main
parts: experimental analysis and probabilistic modeling. These
OCTOBER 2017, Vol. 139 / 051402-3
 Fig. 3 Comparison of different available probability distributions
Fig. 4 A probability plot based on Anderson–Darling approach
to identify the best fit distributions for the environmental
parameters such as salinity
two parts are then combined together to predict the time-
dependent pitting corrosion depth of a structural steel in long-term
marine environment.
In pitting corrosion depth modeling, it is crucial to grasp the
significance of the phenomenological model because it provides a
strong understanding of the corrosion process and the contributing
factors that control the pit growth. Likewise, an empirical corro-
sion model that represents the pit depth growth should be
Fig. 5 Development of a methodology for predicting the long-term time-dependent pit-
ting corrosion depth
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carefully considered. In the corrosion-related literature, there is a
strong history of empirical model development for long-term
exposure. Apart from the correlation studies conducted by several
researchers [14,20,22,50–53], the most frequent models are based
on a power law (Eq. (2)) which is applied for atmospheric corro-
sion loss/pitting depth.
The development of the proposed pit depth prediction method-
ology starts with the probabilistic approach, which is then inte-
grated with the experimental approach as demonstrated in Fig. 5.
In the first step of the probabilistic approach, the influencing fac-
tors that control the long-term pitting corrosion in marine environ-
ment are identified. The most influencing factors are selected
based on the technical review conducted by Bhandari et al. [10]
and by studying theoretical corrosion phenomenon model. Tem-
perature, salinity, pH, bacterial activity, velocity, exposure period,
and alloy effects are considered to be the most influencing factors
governing the long-term anaerobic conditions. Among these fac-
tors, temperature and bacterial activities play an important role for
pit growth in both short- and long-term corrosion. Melchers [16]
reported that seawater temperature is considered to be the major
influencing factor in pitting corrosion loss. He also nominated
microbiological activity as another very important factor that con-
trols long-term pitting corrosion loss in marine environmental
conditions. Microbiological growth is a function of available
energy sources and available nutrients, which enables microbio-
logical metabolism [16].
In the next step, the probability distributions are developed to
ascertain the influencing factors that control the pitting corrosion.
These probability distributions are also called the priors because
Transactions of the ASME
 they assign a basic probability to the factors that lead to the partic-
ular consequences. The prior probabilities are crucial in modeling
the causes-consequences relationship using BN. The prior proba-
bilities of the influencing factors are estimated from their corre-
sponding probability distributions, which are developed based on
available observational data. For example, Fig. 6 illustrates the
prior probability distribution for temperature.
Subsequently, a BN model is developed to estimate the maxi-
mum occurrence probability of constants A and B. In the BN
model, inputs such as the environmental factors and the material
properties are required in order to exercise the model. A condi-
tional probability table (CPT) is developed to estimate the proba-
bilities of each state of the variables and considers each
combination of the parent states. The conditional probabilities for
the child nodes were created by studying the relationship between
different factors that control pitting corrosion depth in long-term
exposure. Most of the information was derived from the field data.
In addition to field data, the theoretical corrosion loss model and
additional expert knowledge were used to develop the conditional
probability table.
To exercise the experimental analysis, the first step requires the
collection of long-term exposure pitting corrosion data (>2.5
years) along with the specific operating conditions. The power
law model is then applied to represent the pit depth as the function
of time. The model is then calibrated using a thorough re-
examination of literature data and the extensive use of specially
commissioned field tests. The parameters of the power law model
(A&B) for each site are derived using linear stepwise regression.
First, the hypothetical value is assigned to empirical constants A
and B to calculate the pitting corrosion depth c(t). Later, the pre-
dicted pitting corrosion depth c(t) was compared with the experi-
mental pitting corrosion depth. The standard deviation was
calculated to find the amount of variation in a power law constant
values.
Following this, the PDF for constants A and B is developed
based on the numerical value obtained from fitting the model to
the observed data. The PDFs are determined empirically (that is,
based entirely on available observational data). Furthermore, the
assumed probability distributions are verified in the light of avail-
able data, using the normality test as explained in Sec. 4. This test
is implemented by considering several PDFs, and by carefully
selecting the one that best fits the calibrated data. This approach is
generally used to eliminate the uncertainty associated with the
estimation of the probability of occurrence of undesirable events
and their consequences [54]. As discussed in Sec. 4, quantitative
data analysis is also preferred as a part of the methodology in
Fig. 6 Prior probability distribution of a influencing factor
“temperature”
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order to access generic data, to statistically evaluate data, and to
develop incident distributions using the data [55].
Finally, the BN result and experimental results are integrated
by PDFs of constants A and B. Using the maximum probability
from BN, the actual numerical value of constants A and B is
obtained from their posterior PDFs developed using experimental
analysis. The obtained numerical value for constants A and B is
then applied to the power law model to predict the time-
dependent pitting corrosion depth.
5 Application of the Methodology: A Case Study
A case study is used to illustrate the application of the proposed
methodology to predict the time-dependent pit depth of structural
steel in long-term marine exposure. The data were obtained from
the world-wide test program undertaken by ASTM Task Group
[36], which assessed the relative corrosivity of seawater at 14 var-
ious test sites. These field tests were accomplished by exposing
aluminum alloy, copper–nickel alloy, and mild steel specimens at
14 distinctive test sites. However, this study is only focused on the
pitting corrosion observations of mild steel specimen exposed for
0.5, 1, 3, and 5 years in marine environments. Regrettably, suita-
ble data sources for the calibration of this model are very limited
and relatively few data sources provide sufficient information
about operating (environmental) conditions. Therefore, in this
case study, the ASTM worldwide corrosion tests provide the sole
data observed for pitting corrosion depth as well as the operating
conditions. Their data were exclusively adopted to conduct this
study and to test the applicability of the proposed methodology.
The pitting corrosion data and operating conditions adapted from
ASTM worldwide test can be found in Appendices A and B,
respectively [36].
Based on the ASTM field tests, the contributing factors of long-
term pitting corrosion in marine environment are identified as
temperature, salinity, pH, oxygen concentration, exposure period,
and velocity. Some of these factors, such as the existence of SRB
and the alloying effect, were not calibrated when ASTM tests
were conducted. For this study, the authors have included the
effects of SRB and alloy composition based on the phenomeno-
logical model and from several published works including the
recent review by Bhandari et al. [10]. SRB is the most active con-
tributor to pitting in long-time exposure of carbon steel materials
in marine environment because the metabolic activities result in
sulfate ion reduction to hydrogen and sulfide. The sulfide ion
attacks the steel electrochemically causing more pitting corrosion
due to an increase in anodic/cathodic reactions caused by sulfate
reduction. The effect of oxygen concentration was omitted in this
study because it does not affect the long-term pitting corrosion
process (phase 4 in Fig. 1).
The prior probabilities for environmental parameters and mate-
rial properties are obtained through the distribution developed for
individual factors. The distribution for each particular factor is
established by considering the operating conditions of all 14 test
sites. When considering a PDF, the prior probability of different
states (such as high, average, and low value) is estimated for each
factor as demonstrated in Table 1. The high and low states repre-
sent the higher and lower bound in the PDFs.
After establishing the prior probabilities for the environmental
factors and material properties, a causes-consequences relation-
ship model is developed using BN. To predict the probability of
the constants (A and B), the contributing factors and their assigned
prior probabilities are applied to BN as listed in Table 1.
Figure 7 demonstrates the developed BN model, which esti-
mates the maximum probability of constants A and B, respec-
tively. The probability of these constants is a complex function of
environmental variables, such as temperature, exposure period,
and bacterial activities, as shown in Table 1. These variables
influence the occurrences probability of constants A and B, which
indirectly controls the growth of the pitting corrosion depth.
OCTOBER 2017, Vol. 139 / 051402-5
 Table 1 Parameter for predicting long-term pitting corrosion depth

Node State Operating conditions Probability Intermediate event State Probability

Temperature Minimum 0–18 0.15 Sulfate-reducing bacteria Present 0.909

Average 18–22 0.2 Absent 0.091
Maximum 22–30 0.65
Salinity Present Yes 0.67
Absent No 0.33 Alloying effect Yes 0.868
Acidic 4.0–5.5 0.3 No 0.132
pH Neutral 5.5–7 0.1
Basic 7.0–9.0 0.6
Steel composition Present >0.5% 0.6
Absent <0.5% 0.4
Carbon content Present Yes 0.67
Absent No 0.33
Exposure period Maximum >3.5 years 0.65
Average 2.5–3.5 years 0.3
Minimum <2.5 years 0.05
Velocity High >2.20 m/s 0.64
Low 0.220 m/s 0.36

Fig. 7 Developed BN model to predict pitting depth constants (A&B)

Therefore, the developed model should take into account the rela-
tionship between these variables to predict the maximum proba-
bility of the constants. The final probability of constants A and B
depends on the conditional probability matrix. As previously
stated, the conditional probabilities table in this study is developed
based on the perception of theoretical corrosion model, from the
field test data, and through expert judgments.
In the BN model, inputs such as environmental factors and
materials properties are used to exercise the model. As mentioned
earlier, the effect of temperature has long been recognized as an
important influencing factor. This is confirmed in the BN model
based on both theoretical corrosion principles and field observa-
tions [13,52]. In this study, the operating temperature is consid-
ered to be within the range of 0–30  C. The highest temperature
was reported at Wrightsville Beach, NC and the lowest tempera-
ture was reported in Sjaelland, Denmark [36]. For the short-term
exposure, the pH of seawater is found to be consistent for all sites;
however, the effect of carbon dioxide can affect the range of pH
during long-term corrosion exposure [56]. The pH is used in three
different states in this study and, as presented in Table 1, the
acidic, neutral, and basic states are found to be within the range of
4–9. The exposure period is crucial for predicting long-term pit-
ting depth. Only long-term corrosion (more than 0.5 years) is con-
sidered in this study. Melchers and Jeffrey [57] also considered
the data for 0.5 to more than 4 years of exposure in their study.
However, they stated that there is usually a considerable increase
in the instantaneous corrosion rates for both weight loss and for
pitting depth after 2 years exposure.

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 The effect of seawater salinity is conventionally considered to
be a very important factor with regard to pitting corrosion. It was
found that the amount of salinity present in the seawater was rela-
tively inconsistent for all the considered exposure sites. However,
it should be noted that the variations of salinity for different sites
were fairly minimal. Two binary states of “present or absent” are
considered for the occurrences of seawater salinity in this study.
Similarly, the effect of alloy composition acts on the tendency for
an alloy to initiate pit and also affects the rate of corrosion [58].
The effect of the alloy composition may have a favorable effect in
corrosion resistance ability of the materials under certain exposure
conditions such as seawater immersion and atmospheric condi-
tions. In this study, the significant effect of alloy composition in
predicting the probability of constants (A and B) is observed as
demonstrated in the BN. The effect of water velocity on long-term
pitting corrosion is also found to be significant. This was found to
be in line with Melchers’ [7] report, which states that the water
velocity increases the rate of pitting corrosion nonlinearly. Melch-
ers [7] indicated that when corrosive products and/or marine
growth is disrupted or removed (as through erosion or abrasive
action), the effect of water velocity on pitting corrosion can
become more severe. This study indicates that the effect of micro-
biological activities is significant in predicting pitting corrosion
depth. From the developed BN, it can be seen that the sulfate-
reducing bacteria increase the maximum values of constants A
and B which, in turn, increases the depth of pit as a function of
time consistently. Southwell et al. [59] and Melchers and Jeffrey
[24] have also discussed the influence of the microbiological
activities on both the short- and long-term corrosion of steels.
The BN model illustrated in Fig. 7 estimates the maximum pos-
sible probability of constants A and B. The value estimated repre-
sents the occurrence probability of constants A and B to a
maximum probability when all the operating conditions and their
conditional probabilities are satisfied. The final probability of con-
stants A and B is calculated as 0.784 (refer Fig. 6). It can be seen
that the probability of A and B is remarkably similar; however, the
relationship between the variables and the conditional probability
table is different. This will lead to a separate numerical value for
the individual constants (A and B) when considering the similar
probability received from the BN.
In the experimental analysis, the corrosion loss/pitting depth
versus the exposure time observation (for each of 14 sites) is plot-
ted to examine whether the data agree with the phenomenological
corrosion model trends as shown in Fig. 1. As illustrated in Fig. 8,
the data are considerably at variance with the pit depth growth
law considered in this study. It clearly shows that the idealized
model of the type shown in Fig. 1 is suitable for pitting corrosion.
Fig. 8 Localized corrosion data for mild steel exposed to surface seawater conditions at
four different sites (the solid lines represent power law model and dotted line represents
actual data)
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Indeed, there is a need of model calibration to extensive data-
derived new field observations. Data for four different sites are
plotted in Fig. 8, where the line represents the power function
regression curves and the dot represents the actual data. This
graph shows fairly acceptable agreements between the experimen-
tal corrosion data and the power function regression curves
obtained using Eq. (2). In Fig. 8, some of the graph does not
appear to have a perfect fit; this could be due to the lack of enough
observed data points from the field test.
The parameters of the power law model (A&B) for each site
are derived using linear stepwise regression. Then the PDF for
constants A and B is developed based on the numerical value
obtained from fitting the model to the observed data. Figure 9
shows the posterior PDF for constants A and B developed from
the value obtained by fitting Eq. (2) to the calibrated data from all
the test sites. In order to estimate the depth of the pit as a function
of time, the result obtained from BN is used to read the corre-
sponding numerical value of A and B when considering PDFs.
Considering the maximum probability of 78.4% (obtained from
BN), the numerical value of A and B is found to be 1.5 and 0.8,
respectively.
In predicting the value of constants A and B from the empirical
pit depth model, comparable outcomes are reported in several pre-
viously published studies. Sowinski and Sprowls [60] considered
the power law model for various alloys exposed to the marine
environment for up to 30 years in U.S.; they found the value of B
to range between 0.33 to more than 1. Melchers [61] considered
the power law in his previous studies and indicated that B should
be 0.5 for pure Fickian diffusion and homogenous rusts; however,
his calibration to field data invariably showed that B varies
between 0.3 and 0.8. For short-term laboratory studies of the pit
depth, this value may differ. Aziz and Godard [62] reported that
for short-term laboratory tests on pitting depth, the value of B is in
the range of 0.33 and 0.55. Based on the previous literature, the
value for A has not been reported as comparable to B. However,
Hou and Liang [26] established the multicorrelation coefficient
value of A and B as 0.82 and 0.9 after analyzing 16 years exposure
data of steel. Their value of A shows a slight discrepancy from the
value reported in this study. The reason could be attributed to the
uncertainty associated with each data point, or to errors in their
experimental data and/or data processing.
Southwell et al. [59] reported a data of 8-years exposure tests of
structural steel exposed to seashore and inland environments in
the Panama Canal Zone. Their data were applied to the proposed
methodology to estimate the corrosion loss model using power
law considering the operational conditions. Figure 10 shows the
comparison of power law model calibrated to the actual data for a
OCTOBER 2017, Vol. 139 / 051402-7
 Fig. 9 Posterior probability distribution for constants (A and B)
Fig. 10 The pitting corrosion loss model developed from
Ref. [59] data, which is applied to proposed methodology
variety of metals in the Panama Canal Zone. The compassion
shows the remarkable agreement between actual data (lines) and
the power law model calibrated to the field data (dots).
Furthermore, Hou and Liang [26] used the regression analysis
approach that does not take account of the conditional dependency
among variables, whereas the BN is a powerful technique, which
predicts the probabilities of constants. This study used the prior
knowledge of pitting corrosion phenomena, together with the
observed data. BN is also capable of establishing the probabilistic
relationship between variables to deal with the uncertainty associ-
ated with the data set.
This analysis confirms that the proposed methodology is suc-
cessful in predicting the long-term anaerobic pitting corrosion
depth of structural steel as a function of time in different environ-
mental and operational conditions. The developed methodology in
this study has advantages for estimating the pitting depth as com-
pared to the previously used conventional techniques. This BN-
based methodology can be practiced to predict the future deterio-
ration of newly built or older offshore infrastructures using their
specific operating conditions. This novel concept for modeling pit
depth focuses on interpreting data in terms of a priori model using
Bayesian statistics rather than using data alone to indicate a
model, such as typical correlation studies do. Using this methodol-
ogy, the result illustrates that this approach is successful in provid-
ing new interpretations and better understanding of empirical
“field” observations.
Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate
the most influencing factors as well as their contributions to the
pitting depth. It is conducted by assigning a zero probability to the
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individual factors affecting the pitting depth. The BN model cal-
culates the percentage contributions by comparing each case with
the base case when all factors are active. The result shows that the
temperature and the exposure period are the most influencing fac-
tors affecting the pitting depth. Comparable investigations are
reported by several researchers [3,6,32,34,63]. Melchers [52]
reported that the pitting corrosion rate should be doubled for every
10  C increase in temperature. He further stated that the microbio-
logical reaction process for corrosion becomes faster with increase
in temperature after the initial stage; this suggests that the corro-
sion rate increases with the rise in seawater temperature. Melchers
[52] also confirmed that both temperature and the exposure time
play a vital role toward increasing the biological activities in
seawater.
6 Conclusions
A BN-based methodology is proposed for predicting pitting
corrosion depth of structural steel exposed to seawater in long-
term anaerobic conditions. Emphasis is placed on modeling the
pitting depth by combining the multiphase phenomenological and
empirical models. The proposed model is critically important for
the management of older offshore structures as well as for the
design of new infrastructure to ensure safety and serviceable long
life. Application of this proposed methodology to a case study
demonstrates that the use of the power law model is appropriate
for estimating the long-term pitting corrosion depth. The calcu-
lated values of constants (A and B) using BN are compared with
the previously conducted studies and relatively comparable results
are achieved. Hence, the proposed model is efficient for predicting
the pitting depth of a steel structure exposed to seawater for a lon-
ger term. Moreover, the proposed BN-based methodology is also
capable of providing the quantitative relationship between pitting
corrosion and environmental factors. The model is capable of
being updated whenever new information becomes available
through measurements, monitoring, and inspection. Seawater tem-
perature and the longer exposure periods are found to be the most
influencing factors that increase the microbiological activities,
which subsequently increase the pitting corrosion depth in anaero-
bic conditions.
Acknowledgment
Authors thankfully acknowledge support provided by National
Centre for Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamic (NCMEH)
and Australian Maritime College (AMC). The grant received from
University of Tasmania (2016) under the Research Enhancement
Grants Scheme (REGS) is highly appreciated. The authors greatly
appreciate the editors and the reviewers for their insightful com-
ments and suggestions.
Transactions of the ASME
 Appendix A: Pitting Corrosion Depth Data Adapted From ASTM [36]

Ocean City, NJ Wrightsville Beach, NC Key West, FL

Exposure period Corrosion rate Corrosion loss Exposure period Corrosion rate Corrosion loss Exposure period Corrosion rate Corrosion loss
(years) (lm/year) (pit depth) (mm) (years) (lm /year) (pit depth) (mm) (years) (lm /year) (pit depth) (mm)

0.5 192 0.36 0.5 161 0.31 0.5 136 0.16

0.5 213 0.33 0.5 165 0.5 0.5 146 0.36
1 209 1 1 123 0.68 1 107 0.81
1 322 1.31 1 213 1.28 1 119 0.39
3 100 1.57 3 87 2.44 3 124 2.17
3 107 1.87 3 214 4.44 3 84 1.19
5 92 2.24 5 68 1.39 5 84 1.23
5 100 1.46 5 224 4.11 5 75 1.40
Freeport, TX Port Huenema, CA Talara, Peru

0.5 120 0.27 0.5 550 0.95 0.5 196 0.48

0.5 105 0.37 0.5 245 0.44 0.5 180 0.35
1 105 0.53 2 113 0.8 1 147 0.73
1 91 2.58 2 121 0.83 1 137 0.84
3 99 2.77 2.9 125 3.5 3 129 3.4
3 137 6.07 2.9 173 1.88 3 126 2.52
5 135 6.07 5 207 2.12 5 131 2.98
5 86 2.59 5 136 2.59
KeAhole, Kona, HI Innisfail, Queensland, Australia Sakata Harbor, Japan

0.5 240 0.84 1 207 3.63 0.5 86 0.18

0.5 235 0.44 1 233 2.23 0.5 89 0.27
1 165 0.73 3 174 1.62 1 168 0.22
1 536 6.07 3 185 1.59 1 171 0.27
3.2 204 2.11 5 162 2.2 3.1 68 1.32
3.2 79 1.27 5 146 1.59 3.1 62 1.21
5 56 1.09 5 94 1.98
5 97 1.41 5 68 2.61
Genoa, Italy Kyndby Isefjord, Denmark Studsvik, Sweden

0.5 145 0.54 0.5 82 0.25 0.5 108 0.25

0.5 194 0.32 0.5 106 0.22 0.5 103 0.22
1 158 0.79 1.5 95 0.41 1 128 0.6
1 214 0.75 1.5 122 0.7 1 131 0.69
3 215 4.42 3.1 91 1.69 3.2 69 1
3 224 6.07 3.1 90 1.72 3.2 62 0.92
5 115 3.88 5 100 1 5 73 1.58
5 123 1.86 5 79 1.85 5 72 1.4
Bohus-Malmon, Sweden Isle of Wight, UK

0.5 103 0.18 0.5 226 0.36

0.5 95 0.21 0.5 156 0.31
1 86 0.35 1 148 0.44
1 94 0.43 1 355 1.06
3.1 99 2 3.1 84 1.07
3.1 119 1.83 3.1 104 1.42
5 101 1.88 5 87 1.19
5 79 2.25 5 79 1.58

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 Appendix B: Parameters for Predicting the Long-Term Pitting Corrosion Depth Adapted From ASTM [36]

No. Locations Temperature (  C) pH Oxygen concentration (ppm) Salinity

1 Ocean City, NJ 1.0–29.0 7.5–8.2 5.2–11.7 31–34

2 Wrightsville Beach, NC 7.0–30.0 7.9–8.2 5.0–9.6 31.8–37.6
3 Key West, FL 16–31 8.0–8.2 4.0–8.0 33–39
4 Freeport, TX 15–17 8.0–8.2 1.5–6.0 11.7–19.4
5 Port Huenema, CA 14–21 7.9–8.1 3.6–5.3 33
6 Talara, Peru 18–22 8.2 5.0–6.0 19.8
7 KeAhole, Kona, HI 18–22 8–8.3 6.0–14.0 34.6–35
8 Innisfail, QLD, Australia 23–30 8–8.5 5.1–6.5 31.7–37.2
9 Sakata Harbor, Japan 2.0–28.0 8.4 7.1–13 16.8–18.3
10 Genoa Harbor, Italy 11.0–25.0 8 4.5–6.0 35
11 Sjaelland, Denmark 0–18 7.5–8.0 4.6–5.2 18–28
12 Baltic Sea, Sweden 2.0–20.0 7.4–7.6 6.0–10.0 7.8–8.1
13 North Sea, Sweden 2.0–20.0 8.0–8.2 6.0–10.0 21–28
14 Isle of Wight, UK 5.0–22.0 7.8–8.4 8.8–11.8 34–34.6

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