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in their Sept. 12 news
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"The U.S. economy will go into a recession as a result of the terrorist attack," Sung Won San,
chief economist for Wells Fargo & Co., told the Post's John M. Berry and Steven Pearlstein.
Why? Consumer confidence will tumble. But what does anxiety about a terrible but decidedly
non-monetary tragedy have to do with consumer confidence? In the Journal, Greg Ip and John D.
McKinnon explain that by causing an oil spike, the Gulf War depressed consumer confidence
and eventually helped cause a recession. Yesterday's oil prices did indeed spike, and "as political
tensions rise again in the Mideast" we may see oil prices stay high for some time. Translation: If
the United States bombs or invades Afghanistan in order to take out Osama Bin Laden--the
increasingly likely mastermind of yesterday's mayhem--then oil-producing nations might get
mad and cut back oil production. Could be, but there are an awful lot of "ifs" there. (Certainly the
oil-producing Saudis seem unlikely to shed any tears for Bin Laden, who for years has been on
the lam from Saudi law enforcement.) Another consumer confidence argument is that people will
stay out of airplanes in droves for fear of fatal hijackings. But Chatterbox bets that won't happen.
0
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rebuild it he must if he wants to demonstrate that terrorists can't damage U.S. morale. .3 ##
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