Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Getamber Anand
Chairman, CREDAI
Jaxay Shah
President, CREDAI
Preface Introduction
India’s demographic dividend and the rapid pace of urbanisation come with its unique challenges. The urban population India with its rapid growth and evolving urbanisation trends needs new
is expected to cross 850 million by 2050 with 50% of India living in the cities. More than 55% of the population in 2050 will megacities. With the urban sprawl increasing and overburdening the
be in the 19-59 age group, the key working demographic. This brings us to the two biggest challenges - creating newer infrastructure in large cities, creation of new, large urban centres has
urban centres which can also serve as economic engines of growth as well as suitable employment opportunities for the attained critical importance. Decluttering our metros by creating new
people who will reside here, and migrate to these new cities making them their new home. India has begun in the right economic engines of growth is already underway through various central
earnest. The Government’s Smart Cities programme along with the Urban Rejuvenation Scheme - AMRUT, is a step in the and state government initiatives.
right direction, which will not only enable upgrading of the creaking infrastructure in our large cities but also provide our
Upgrading the infrastructure and improving municipal and civic response
smaller centres a template to become megacities in the future.
times in our Tier II , III and IV cities will form the backbone, which will enable
The role of the central government and the respective state governments assumes paramount importance, as they our cities to attract economic and industrial activity to a greater extent. Many
are the enablers to kick-start these mega development projects to create the right environment for private sector of these cities are already taking measures to identify themselves as the flag-
participation in nation building. The real estate and infrastructure sector will become a key agent of change by making bearers in terms of investments and development, with the growth agenda
the next wave of Indian megacities future ready - participating in the infrastructure backbone creation and by providing becoming inclusive and diverse.
physical space to its residents and economic agents.
The latest report from JLL analyses urbanisation and migration trends in the
These future cities are already up and running on the development curve. Some of them have inherent advantages, country to create a case for developing our Tier II , III and IV cities. Focusing
which they are looking to embrace more wholeheartedly to reach the next stage of city evolution. on real estate, the report seeks to identify the asset classes which offer
opportunities for developers in these locations whilst reiterating the impact
This report examines the evolving landscape of India’s urbanisation and the changing gears in
of regulatory changes and how developers in Tier II , III and IV cities need
India’s future cities - at the same time analysing the real estate asset classes which would find greater
to imbibe fiscal prudence as well as better industry practices to create a
resonance, along with the tectonic shifts required in conventional business practices post recent
template for sustained success.
redefining regulatory changes. The report being released on the occasion of the New India Summit
2017, powered by CREDAI - JLL and fittingly being held in one of India’s future megacities, Nagpur, Through this report, we have identified the urban centres that stand out
will showcase a heralding of the Dawn of New India. as the megacities of the future. We put them through an analysis matrix
based on various parameters such as planning, development, infrastructure
Ramesh Nair
CEO & Country Head progress and high-value catalysts, with the results highlighting prominent
JLL, India cities, which we believe have the potential to find their unique place for
robust real estate activity outside of India’s metros over the coming years.
With the release of this paper at the New India Summit at Nagpur, and the
city itself being one of the top three, non-capital cities amongst the best
performers, the final section focuses on the vision of making Nagpur a future
megacity and the implementation progress of various measures designed to
achieve this objective.
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
urbanisation
According to the results of Census 2011, there were 64 cities in the country with a population of a million or more and by 2031, that number
is estimated to rise to more than 87. Some of these urban centres are already aspiring megacities of the future and are taking positive
steps towards becoming major economic generators of wealth and contribute meaningfully to the country’s GDP. With economic activities
India’s
spread over a larger part of the country, a broad-based economy will result in more inclusive growth while gainfully utilising the young
workforce that the country has access to. It will also reduce the pressure on the current megacities by distributing it to the future cities of India.
While India’s urban population is currently around 33.5% of the total population, it contributes over 60% of India’s GDP. It is
story - dividend or burden? projected that urban India will contribute nearly 75% of the national GDP by 2030.
• As India’s population continues to grow, more citizens will move to cities.
• It is estimated that by 2050, the number of people living in Indian cities will touch 850 million.
Investment Destinations
A few cities are labelling themselves
• Smarter ways to manage complexities, reduce expenses, increase efficiency and improve as investment destinations by
India stands at the cusp of a huge demographic dividend. It is a country on the move and offering state-of-the-art infrastructure
the quality of life are required to accommodate this rapid urbanisation and make cities smart.
the high percentage of young population in the country is a pointer towards the long-term and attractive lifestyles.
economic benefits of a large workforce. In 2017, India’s young workforce, between 20-59 Challenges in cities
years is a significant 53.5% and even by 2050, will stand at a healthy 55%. The chart below Today’s cities face significant challenges, such as increasing population, lack of physical and social infrastructure, environmental and
shows India’s population split age-wise across male and female population. Clearly the regulatory requirements, declining tax bases and budgets and increased costs. They have to learn to identify new and smart ways
pyramid is bigger in the middle, indicating the large workforce that will continue to keep to manage the complexity of urban living and to address problems ranging from pollution, overcrowding, inadequate housing, high
unemployment, resource management and rising crime rates. Long-standing urban challenges include housing, especially for low-
India young while giving it a significant edge.
income population groups, infrastructure inadequacies and the constant struggle to deliver a variety of services, including water,
This demographic dividend though will need gainful employment opportunities, sanitation, education and health. With a view to modernising India and accelerating the process of urbanisation, the Prime Minister of
educational facilities and relevant skilling as it will demand better economic opportunities, India has envisioned the creation of 100 “smart cities”. The core idea is to develop satellite towns of larger cities and modernise existing
living conditions and benefits from the authorities. mid-sized cities.
Migration trend
80+
75-79 In India, according to Census 2011, 45.36 crore Indians (which is 37% of the total population in India) are migrants indicating that they have
70-74 now settled in a place different from their original residence. In 2001, the figure stood at 31.45 crore. Employment and marriage were the
65-69
dominant reasons for migration. Railway data for 2011-16 was used to estimate internal work-related migration and threw up a figure of 9
60-64
55-59 million people as the annual average flow between the states. According to the Economic Survey 2017, districts with high net in-migration
50-54 tend to be city-districts such as Gurugram, Delhi and Mumbai. Districts with high net outmigration are located in the economically under-
45-49 achieving states, such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The Delhi region accounted for more than half of the in-migration in 2015-16, while Uttar
40-44
Pradesh and Bihar together accounted for half of the total out-migrants.
35-39
30-34 Maharashtra, Goa and Tamil Nadu had major net in-migration, while Reasons for migration
25-29 Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh had major net outmigration. Others
20-24
15-19
Infrastructure capacity building remains the biggest challenge for Moved with Household
10-14 India in order to enable the country to realise its true potential. While Moved after Birth
05-09 the larger cities have good infrastructure, it is creaking under the Marriage
00-04
pressure of increased in-migration from the smaller centres. Tier II and
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Education
Tier III cities lag far behind in terms of existing infrastructure and a lot
Female% Male% Business Education
of work is needed to have adequate and stable power, good roads and
reliable telecommunication infrastructure. In addition, making such Work/Employment
Urbanisation in India is mainly attributed to the liberalisation of its economy 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
smaller cities engines of change by creating more economic activity is
post the 1990s. Liberalisation was the catalyst for accelerated private sector 2011 2001
extremely important to retain talent and prevent migration.
growth in India. Since then, though urbanisation has taken place at a fast rate Source: Census 2011, Economic Survey of India, United Nations University,
JLL-CREDAI: A white paper on smart cities
in the country, even today, just over one-third of its population lives in urban
areas, adding up to a CAGR of 2.5% over the past quarter of a century. Exposure
to global trends and the conscious shift towards a knowledge and information-
based economy has resulted in many Indian cities becoming megacities. These
cities are competing to attract knowledge workers and investments, especially
in sectors such as IT/ITeS and manufacturing, which propel employment and
the growth of physical infrastructure such as the metro rail, ring roads and
international airports. But inadequate infrastructure and the reactive approach
to capacity building is creating a situation of urban chaos and gridlock while the
cities’ support services creak under the burden of increased inward migration.
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
Shifting Sands of Real Estate:
Aligning Tier II & III cities
The contours of Indian real estate are evolving with the sector charting a new direction as a result of learning from experience. India’s logistics and warehousing sector is also primed for a quantum
jump with the advent of a unified, one India tax - GST (Goods & Services
The real estate sector in India is currently undergoing a paradigm shift. Revolutionary regulatory changes have left an indelible mark on
Tax) and associated infrastructure push to improve surface and air
the sector for years to come. Developers with years of experience have also been on the path of constant learning and those who have
connectivity across the country. Given below is how India stacks up
evolved have achieved greater success both commercially as well as in terms of recognition. In India’s megacities, more developers are
creating commercial offices on a pure lease model. In India’s Grade A office stock of nearly 500 mn sq ft across the top seven cities, more to international standards on the logistics sector’s performance.
than 60% is held under single ownership. They have learnt the value of institutional partnership over disposing of assets in a piece-meal Parameters India United States Chine
manner. Those who followed this model from the outset are now the undisputed leaders in the segment.
Logistic Performance Score : 3.12 Score : 3.99 Score : 3.66
India’s retail story is similar across the larger as well as the smaller cities. Failed malls on account of poor design, execution and Index (LPI), 2016 (rank: 35/160) (rank: 10/160) (rank: 27/160)
management have made developers learn the hard way that retail is a specialised asset class needing more patience, investment and Logistic Cost as % of GDP 13% 8.3% 18%
professional management with a long-term vision of creating ‘experience destinations’ than ‘shopping plazas’ to achieve success. We Auto components Food processing
Major industries driving Metals Electronics
see instances of closed malls across many cities with successful examples showing the way for others. Pharmaceuticals and beverages
the logistics sector Cement Textiles
Cement Textiles E-commerce
The Indian residential sector is the biggest asset class in terms of value. It is also the sector that has underwent a significant course
Inadequate road High toll charges
correction in the recent times. Poor industry practices, unfulfilled promises and unrealised dreams of buyers culminated in the single High
Major Challenges network Loss during Shortage of trained
employee cost
biggest reform ever seen in real estate - the creation of a regulator. transportation manpower
The LPI is an interactive benchmarking tool created to help countries identify the challenges and
TThe huge demand for housing had fuelled a price rise from 2011 onwards culminating in a bull run for three years. This also created opportunities they face in their performance in trade logistics and what they can do to improve their
a supply-demand mismatch with lesser houses being made available for the mid and affordable buyer segment. This was acutely performance. It is measured by the following parameters: customs, infrastructure, international
visible in the larger cities where the associated price rise and project delays due to mismanagement and funds diversion eroded shipments, logistics quality and competence, tracking and tracing, and timeliness (World Bank)
buyer confidence, signalling the need for change. The enforced change through the emergence of the regulator is now causing a shift As per World Bank report, India ranks 35out of 160 countries on LPI; jump of 19
spots from 2014.
in business practices, where only the honest and serious players are expected to survive. A major change worth mentioning is how
developers have started aligning the product to suit the needs of the larger buyer base. This includes offering lower ticket sized houses
with suitable price points as well as compact sizes. It is worth noting how the average sizes of apartments have shrunk as developers Major Drivers of Indian warehousing industry
have started to conform to the affordability tag. The concern however, is not to make the sizes so small that houses become un-liveable. • e-retail industry’s phenomenal growth trajectory in recent times
is gradually pushing the transformation from retail shelf space
Short Term
to warehousing rack space in India.
The housing sector’s importance can be gauged E-Retail Catalyst
2,500 • Insurance cover of goods stored in warehouses also sets the
by the fact that the government has launched a standards for quality construction / built quality in warehousing
as a compliance criteria.
‘Housing For All by 2022’ programme to enable
• Goods & Services Tax (GST) has helped eliminate the inter-state tax
Immediate Term
2,000 19.6% creation of over two crore houses in the urban
Average Apartment Size in 2010 (sq ft)
Long Term
500 cities as affordable land prices and abundant land efficient goods transfer through Multi-Modal Logistic Parks.
availability can become key enablers for creation • Long term indirect driver of ‘Make in India’ initiatives helping in the
growth of the manufacturing sector which in turn is expected to boost
of such affordably priced housing stock, providing warehousing for both domestic distribution as well as EXIM trade.
0 Industrialization
Mumbai-MMR NCR-Delhi Bengaluru Chennai Pune Hyderabad Kolkata a better quality of life for its residents and migrants • Industrial Corridors like Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor
(DMIC), Amritsar-Kolkata Industrial Corridor (AKIC)
Average Apartment Size in 2010 (sq ft) Average Apartment Size in 2016 (sq ft) coming in to the city. to boost warehousing developments indirectly.
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
That the “one size does not fit all” maxim holds true in real estate cannot be denied. Even within larger cities, we see different However, with developers experiencing supply-side constraints such as the Developers’ Perspective: With an intention to
dynamics at play, and the same attributes may not find similar resonance across geographies. In this context, India’s future lack of the availability of land and finance at reasonable rates for constructing maximise profit, more and more developers are
cities would do well not to blindly ape the metros’ development and growth but chart their own course, building on their affordable housing projects in Tier I cities, more affordable housing projects are showing keen interest in exploring affordable
strengths and creating a development template that is unique to them. expected to come up in the Tier II & III cities. housing project options in the Tier II & III cities
with demand drivers such as:
Before we look at what opportunities India’s Tier II and III cities can tap into, we will glance at how the new regulatory changes have Identifying the Opportunities in Alternative Assets - Warehousing and Tourism
brought about a tectonic shift in the sector’s business practices, and development players will do well to adapt and change quickly to • Growing middle-class population
Warehousing: Developers and several foreign private equity players are now
this rapidly evolving scenario.
foraying into warehouse developments across cities in India and are coming up • Quality infrastructure and rapid rate of
Impact of Regulatory Reforms on Small Developers with large-scale and technologically advanced warehousing/logistics space with urbanisation
state-of-the-art facilities. The relatively easier availability of land in Tier II and Tier
III cities compared to the larger metros, along with improving connectivity through • Rising demand for such projects in these cities
• An overall slowdown in residential unit sales across the country
infrastructure developments make quite a winning combination for these cities. • Comparatively low penetration indicating less
• Most of the launches were seen in the mid-range and affordable categories across all the cities -
Opportunities in the Tourism Sector: India’s strong growth in the services industry competition in comparison to large metros
Demonetisation a positive impact on the smaller developers who continued venturing into new markets
in the past few years has led to increased, business travel to Tier II & III
• Mid to small size residential developers were seen seeking partnerships with larger developers Buyers’ Perspective: The easing of lending
cities has also increased over the years. Smaller urban centres with linkages to
to help revive their projects stalled by fund shortages and regulatory hurdles regulations by the National Housing Board and
tourism and serving as central nodes to tourist locations in the hinterlands are also
the Reserve Bank of India and enabling loans
in a prime position to leverage tourism revenues for development works in the city. on a priority basis are likely to increase the
• Aims at introducing transparency in the sector by imposing accountability on real estate Hospitality sector investments in Tier II & III cities have also been on the rise, with a affordability among the mid-income buyers.
developers and agents considerable increase in the number of business and leisure travellers to these cities.
Real Estate
• With greater transparency, buyers are likely to take an interest in projects even by small Hospitality chains are looking to increase their presence in smaller cities to leverage
and Regulation developers, even if they lack flashy advertisements and discount offers this opportunity.
Act (RERA)
• Initially, only big developers may undertake new projects; later, with the market becoming well
Learnings for developers in Tier II and III cities:
regulated, small-scale developers will find their way back, keeping capital values up
• The time for informal business partnerships and non-serious players is over
• Institutional players are increasingly focused on affordable housing and the logistics/warehousing sector, both of which have
immense potential in smaller urban centres
Goods and • According infrastructure status to
• The elimination of layers • Corporate governance, professional management and ethics are key drivers for attracting institutional funding as well as clients
affordable housing and increased
Services Act of tax would reduce the Budget 2017 allocation to NHB will boost • With the advent of RERA, compliance is a must and this opportunity should be used to undertake a “house clean-up”
the inefficiencies
(GST) creation of housing stock • A rational approach to development with a focus on evolving a brand equity through quality project delivery will work the best
• The days of “super-normal” returns are over, but quality projects will always yield a positive bottom line
• Evolve a plan of strategic land banking; do not overstretch finances
• Strategic tie-ups with peer developer groups and national players is a likely trend going forward
What should Tier II and III cities look at in the near to medium term?
• Embrace change
In our opinion, quality housing and the warehousing/logistics sectors are likely to find good traction in the emerging urban centres.
With investments in infrastructure being the backbone for the warehousing/logistics sector, the increased employment opportunities
will result in inward migration and fuel the need for housing options. Existing city level drivers, such as tourism, education can also be
used to piggy-back on and explore opportunities in the hospitality and rental/student housing asset classes.
Housing for All Agenda - Credit Linked Subsidy Scheme for Mid-Income Groups
Housing for All Mission - Launched by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation, (MoHUPA), the “Pradhan
Mantri Awas Yojana” (Urban) envisions provision of Housing for All by 2022 in urban India and creation of 2 crore houses. The
policy extends financial support to buyers for both new house acquisition as well as the improvement of existing houses.
Referred to as the Credit Linked Subsidy Scheme, the component aims at providing interest subsidy on home loans taken
by eligible urban poor and also covers the middle-class in the cities.
The salaried and middle-income groups comprise a significant proportion of the population in our cities - both in the major
metros as well the smaller cities/towns.
The salary bands of INR 12 lakh and INR 18 lakh adequately cover Relaxation
Granting of The granting of
the middle-class and the schemes earlier envisaged for only a year on carpet
infrastructure 100% exemption
have now been extended. area size
status to affordable on business profits
housing from affordable
The current benefits offered to developers to create affordable housing:
housing projects
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
Identifying the
“gems” beyond the top Indian cities In recent times, there has been a change brewing with the constant discussion around rising
inequities among the urban-rural divide and even income disparities among cities. A lack of
homogeneous growth has stunted the growth of economic megacities, despite some of the smaller
As India’s economic engine chugs along further on the According to our estimates from the extrapolation of 2011 urban centres rivalling the big metros in size and potential.
development track, it is imperative that we realise that our population statistics, India is now home to 64 cities that have In this section, we attempt to identify the cities that have the most dynamic attributes over the
large cities have a limited ability to absorb the influx of people more than a million residents. short-term and long-term and look the most likely candidates to emerge as the new face of
who gravitate towards them in search of better livelihood tomorrow’s India.
While the larger cities remain the biggest draw, one must realise
opportunities. The pressure on these cities’ infrastructure
that they have drawn heavily on their population growth and The first and most essential factor is the human capital in a city. Assuming that the population
is enormous and rather than a better quality of life, we are
managed to successfully channel this human capital of varying dispersion is fairly uniform across the Tier II and Tier III cities in India in terms of age, sex ratio and
witness to the mushrooming of urban slums with sub-standard
skills to consolidate their demographic strengths and emerge as education profile, we have used the numbers residing in a city (whether permanent or transient) as
living conditions, especially for the semi-skilled and labour
the face of a new India. We are now entering an era where the the first filter to identifying the megacities of the future
workforce. The worsening urban decay and gridlock in cities are
need of the hour is to create similar and newer urban centres.
compounded by the policy vacuum that has not kept pace with Using data from Census 2001 and Census 2011 to estimate decadal population growth and using
The current demographics of such cities along with associated
this rapid growth. In this context, as urbanisation is tending to the same growth rate (with some slowing growth rate to account for migration trends) to project the
investments in physical infrastructure will create the bedrock
become a drag on India’s growth rather than contribute to nation population in 2017, we identified 111 cities with an existing population of more than half a million.
from which we will see the advent of a new future spanning
building, we seek to identify the next wave of urban centres Taking away the Tier I cities and their satellite suburban areas, the bucket comprises 98 cities with a
a larger cross-section of the country. India’s federal structure
that have the potential to ease the urbanisation pressure by current population of more than half a million.
has resulted in many small and midsized cities mushrooming
emerging as new centres of economic activity, thereby resulting
in parallel with the larger cities, pointing towards an organic Since demographic strength is an essential factor for a city to realise its true economic potential,
in more inclusive and widespread growth.
growth trajectory. However, the lack of planning, governance we now filter the next-generation megacities based on a population figure of a million and higher.
and regional equity has led to many such potential cities lagging Calculating the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2001 to 2017, we benchmark the cities’
behind in optimising their economic contribution. population growth to India’s population CAGR (1.5% as per World Bank estimates in 2015) over the
same period, and the resultant filter gives us a list of 45 Tier II and Tier III Indian cities
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
The 45 cities have been studied in depth, with data from government sources,
public documents, government programmes, the Detailed Project Reports (DPRs)
on infrastructure development projects and JLL Research, collated and analysed to
create a composite scoring index.
The aim of this index is to identify the hidden gems in the country that have the
template to emerge as new economic centres, driven by investments in infrastructure,
adequate human capital and riding upon the growth of the manufacturing/industrial
and warehousing/logistics sectors. The resultant economic growth will create
These 45 potential cornerstones of a more widespread development across the country are identified region-wise below.
demand for residences and other allied support sectors.
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
The performance of each city under the various attributes is encapsulated below. The table below shows the score of 1 or 0 assigned to each attribute by the green and red icons, respectively.
For ease of analysis, the parameters related to highway, metro, airport and railway connectivity are clubbed under a combined head –
Enhanced Connectivity Infrastructure. Top 45 Cities Tourism Industrial Education Port or Inland Depot Intl. Stadium
Similarly, parameters related to hubs (education, industry & tourism), presence of ports/dry ports/ICDs and presence of international Visakhapatnam
sports facilities have been clubbed under the head - High-Value Incubators. Vijayawada
While the darkest shade of BLACK represents the lowest score in the respective attribute, the gradual colour change to Guwahati
lighter shades and transforming from GREY to WHITE reflect the highest scores under the attributes. Patna
Chandigarh
Top 45 Cities Highway Airport Type Metro Connectivity Status Railway Connectivity Overall Performance
Raipur
Lucknow
Ahmedabad
Jaipur
Kochi Surat
Ahmedabad Vadodara
Nagpur Rajkot
Varanasi Srinagar
Bhubaneswar Jamshedpur
Visakhapatnam
Ranchi
Vijayawada
Mysore
Coimbatore
Hubli-Dharwad
Patna
Guwahati Kochi
Bhopal Kozhikode
Vadodara Thrissur
Surat Malappuram
Gwalior Thiruvananthapuram
Kozhikode
Kannur
Indore
Kollam
Thiruvananthapuram
Indore
Chandigarh
Agra Bhopal
Srinagar Gwalior
Bareilly Nagpur
Tiruchirappalli Nashik
Salem Aurangabad
Amritsar
Bhubaneswar
Hubli-Dharwad
Amritsar
Madurai
Jaipur
Rajkot
Meerut Jodhpur
Raipur Kota
Aurangabad Coimbatore
Jamshedpur Madurai
Nashik Tiruchirappalli
Ranchi
Tiruppur
Mysore
Salem
Kota
Lucknow
Thrissur
Moradabad Agra
Kannur Varanasi
Tiruppur Meerut
Kollam Bareilly
Jodhpur Aligarh
Aligarh
Moradabad
Malappuram
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
The 45 cities have been analysed on each of the parameters mentioned above and the results are displayed hereunder. The final Using the cities’ cumulative scores, we have created a scatter plot using the per capita income levels for each of these cities to identify
score is the Composite Score Index, with the score of each city indexed to 100.
the cities that have the maximum potential and are on their way to achieving it, which ones have the template for development but
Top 45 Cities Top 45 Cities State CapitalSmart
State Capital Smart
CityCity ConnectivityInfrastructure
Connectivity Infrastructure Highvalue
High value Incubators
Incubators Final
Final Score ( outofof 100)
Score (out 100) need to do more to create economic value for its residents and which ones need to get on to the development bandwagon to ensure
Kochi Kochi 90.2
90.2
they are not left behind.
Ahmedabad Ahmedabad 88.2
88.2
2.5
Population
Source: Nagpur Landscape | Census of India Data (2011), knoema.com, World Data Atlas, JLL Research Source: Census of India Data (2011)
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
Regional Connectivity Growth Zones and City Expansion Trends
Connectivity
Road Connectivity
• India’s primary transport hub for the Vidarbha region while providing regional connectivity to the rest of Northern SBD
the state
• Confluence of National Highways Mumbai-Kolkata NH-6 & Kanyakumari-Varanasi NH-7. This is the Zero
Mile of India
Ring Road D Koradi Road
Jaripatka
Rajnagar
Kamptee Road
Rail Connectivity
• Located on Mumbai-Kolkata and Delhi-Chennai rail links.
• Rail connectivity to Kolhapur, Pune, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Jammu, Varanasi, Bhubaneswar, CBD
Trivandrum, Gorakhpur, Visakhapatnam, Bangalore, Patna and Indore. Civil Lines
B
Sitabuldi Eastern SBD
C
Gandhibaug
Air Connectivity Hingana MIDC
Dharampeth
Ramdaspeth Wardhman Nagar
• Regular flights to Mumbai, Delhi and some international routes (Dubai, Bangkok). Nagpur is set to be a Amravati Road Lakadganj
Dhantoli
Ambazari Road
prominent destination on India’s aviation map as the country’s first ever Multi-modal International Cargo
Hub (MIHAN) is expected to be completed in the coming few years.
E
Hingana MIDC
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
Overview of City Level Real Estate Activity Key Drivers
• The most prominent high street retail area and trading hub of the city. Real estate development Pro-active government support
has become saturated due to limited land availability
CBD • Mix of old residential development in areas like Sitabuldi, Sadar and newly developed areas like
Civil Lines and Gokul Peth Key Drivers State of the art infrastructure
• Retail segment consists of organised / modern retail establishments as well as high street retail of Nagpur
• Commercial segment consists of government as well as private offices
• Residential development in the form of bunglows and row houses with apartment typology Floriculture, Oranges
Mining &
SBD WEST picking up.
Industry Agriculture
• Commercial buildings here comprise of retail area on lower floors and offices on higher floors
• Maximum growth seen here due to the impact of MIHAN; the area possesses tremendous
GDP: USD 15.1 billion
potential for real estate development 4% contribution to state GDP
SBD SOUTH • The area has witnessed a healthy supply of residential developments in the last few years
• Retail and commercial development is at a nascent stage; however, several developments are
proposed and expected to come on stream in the next 3-5 years
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
Economic Drivers Future Economic Setting
1. MIHAN
Manufacturing Activity Ha
• Project envisaged to tap Nagpur’s geographic location potential
• Nagpur has two large MIDCs at Hingana and Butibori, where most of the city’s industrial activity is
Airport 1,200
concentrated • Stands for Multi-modal International Cargo Hub and Airport at
• Hingna MIDC: Nagpur Road – Rail Terminal 200
- Spread over 746 ha, it is located on the western fringes of the city and houses around 900 small and • One of India’s biggest economic development projects underway SEZ (processing) 1,475
medium industrial units • Spread over an area of 4,354 ha - IT Park 500
• Butibori MIDC:
• Project MIHAN is primarily divided into two parts: - Captive Power 52
- One of the largest industrial areas of the country in terms of area (2,312 ha) - An international airport to act as a cargo hub - Health City 40
- Developed as 5-Star Industrial District by MIDC - An SEZ with a residential zone on the southern end of Nagpur
- Units in Butibori include Indo Rama Synthetics, KEC and ACC Nihon Castings Other manufacturing and value-added service 50
• Project MIHAN also includes a captive power plant, a health city, Residential, open spaces, hotels, roads, water 963
• Apart from the two large MIDCs, there are other private industrial areas, such as Kamptee and Kalmeshwar
road & rail terminals and an international school
Total 4,354
• The total internal length of roads would be around 51 km.
Agriculture Administration • Many of the companies, i.e. Hexaware BPS, TAL and Lupin Pharma (Trial Drug Formulation), have started exporting from MIHAN SEZ
• Known as the “Orange City” of India • Nagpur is the second capital of • Presence of IT / ITeS companies - TCS, Hexaware, Caliber Point Business Solutions Ltd
• Oranges account for 75% of Maharashtra • Spread across 200 acres, the Indian Institute of Management became operational in 2015
agriculture produce • Winter assembly sessions take place
• Other major crops are cotton, in Nagpur
paddy, jowar, cotton, tur and soya • Nagpur is the administrative 2. Butibori MIDC Phase II
bean, etc. headquarters for Vidarbha Region
• Strategically located within the “V” of Wardha Road & Hyderabad Road after Defence land with accessibility from both Wardha Road
& Hyderabad Road
• Proposed area: 1,667 ha; total investment INR 1,100 crores
Tourism Mining
• For Phase II of the MIDC industrial estate, the process for acquisition of 1,500 ha of land has been completed
• Known as the “Tiger Capital” of India • Mineral rich region
• It is expected that the direct employment generation would be around 15,000 jobs when fully operational
• Tourist inflow on account of wildlife and • Huge deposits of minerals such as coal,
sanctuaries manganese, dolomite, tungsten and • IT park (20 ha), textile park (204 ha), apparel park (68 ha) and weaver’s park (147 ha) are proposed in the area
• Religious significance limestone
Source: Final Report on EIA for Butibori Phase II, smartcities.gov.in, MIHAN, MADC, MIDC, Economic Survey of Maharashtra
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
Infrastructure Push
Nagpur Metro and Infrastructure Push -
Outer Ring Road Expressways
NAGPUR METRO RAIL (2022) PROPOSED
Corridor 1
19.58 km, 18 stations Mumbai - Nagpur Super Communications Expressway
Corridor 2 (Planning Stage)
18.557 km, 19 stations
The work will be undertaken in two phases and in Phase I,
the land acquisition and upgrading of roads to four lanes will
• Total length: 38.21 km • Expected employment: 1,700
be done; will reduce the time of travel between the cities.
• Total investment: INR • 30% work completed
868,000 million • Estimated cost of the project is INR 400,000 million
• Anticipated start date: 2Q18
• Will have eight lanes along with service roads
Source: Nagpur Master Plan 2014 The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
Nagpur: Major Warehousing and Industrial Corridors Logistics and Warehousing Sector
• The city, being at the
geographical centre
Towards of India, is likely to see
Jabalpur growing demand after
280 km (via
NH 44) the implementation of Nagpur’s strategic The three major industrial hubs of Nagpur are Some of the logistics parks in and around
Nimji GST and the expected Butibori, Kalmeshwar and Hingna, with
Asoli central location within the city are Orange City Logistics Park,
connectivity boost Butibori being the largest 5-star industrial MIDC
the country and its good Plusgrow Logistics and Warehousing
• Opportunities in Grade followed by Hingna and Kalmeshwar MIDC.
Gondakhairi connectivity have helped and Logistics Park on the intersection of
A warehousing like to Moreover, logistics has also evolved as an
it in emerging as a MH 6 and VIP Road. Most warehouses are
Waddhamna grow with an increase in alternative sector of the economy, since various
Asoli occupier demand trading and logistics hub MNCs have established their warehouses in and located in the Chinchbhuwan, Gondakhairi,
Gondakhairi Hingna MIDC of central India. around the city to support their supply chain. Surabardi and Kamala Nagar areas.
Infrastructure Profile
NH 44, NH 47, NH 53 and
Waddhamna AH 46 pass through city
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
Nagpur: Strengths and Opportunities Why Nagpur?
Strengths
• The strategic location of the city, almost in the heart of the country Excellent Talent Pool
• Commercial hub and leading industrial centre of eastern Maharashtra Home to several national educational and technical institutons. Houses 275 institutions
• The city is expected to witness growth in the logistics industry due to its central geographical position and the and 5 universities.Availability of skilled manpower and large English speaking pool
new developing area of MIHAN
• Has the only Multi-product SEZ in India that is attached to an airport
• Potential employment generation due to upcoming MIHAN
Health & Education Infrastructure
• Educational hub of central India and Vidarbha Region leading to the availability of skilled manpower
Hub for education and health related services for population residing with 200 km
• Several key infrastructure projects are underway that would have an impact on the overall growth of the city
radius, including adjoining states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and Andhra Pradesh.
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
Nagpur
Pro-active Central and State Policies Role of NMRDA
• Planned Development of Secondary Growth Corridors along State and National Highways viz. • In the first half of 2017, Maharashtra State
Mumbai-Nashik-Aurangabad-Amaravati-Nagpur corridor, leveraging on DMIC Programme Cabinet paved the way for setting up of
• Vidarbha, Marathwada and Konkan would come close to the growth centres encouraging Nagpur Metropolitan Region Development
INDUSTRIAL Authority (NMRDA)-which would take charge
POLICY, growth of Food & Agro Processing, Engineering, Electronics and Logistics & Warehousing industries
2013-2018 of Nagpur Region spread across approx. 3,567
• Exhibition-cum-Convention centres being developed across the state viz. Commercial Complex
near Ambazari Garden in Nagpur sq. km covering 719 villages
• Government planning to chalk out a separate industrial policy for the defence manufacturing sector • NMRDA will undertake activities like rebuilding of certain city pockets,
maintaining city streets, drainage and sanitation and implementation of
housing schemes and city improvement schemes including the affordable
• Maharashtra to implement a comprehensive logistics policy, to develop the state as a housing scheme under PMAY-Urban
logistics hub
LOGISTICS • As per GST, Nagpur, a zero-mile centre, is likely to enhance the development of
POLICY warehousing and logistics sector in Maharashtra
• Construction of Mumbai-Nagpur Super Communication Expressway would expand cargo PROGRESS ON NEW NAGPUR METROPOLITAN AREA (NMA) REGIONAL PLANS FOR SATELLITE/
distribution to 24 other districts besides Mumbai, Thane and Pune from Jawaharlal Nehru DEVELOPMENT PLAN DEVELOPMENT CONTROL RULES SPECIAL TOWNSHIPS
Port, Mumbai
Town Planning Authority yet to DCR for the Nagpur Metropolitan Special Townships shall be
sanction the new Development Area to be read in consonance developed in the NMA as per
Plan for Nagpur Metro Region with the proposals of the the norms in Development
Development Plan Control Regulations
• To promote development of IT/ITeS sector in districts with low HDI (Human Development
IT/ITeS Index) viz. Nagpur, Nashik and Aurangabad, private IT Parks have been set up with 5 such IT Development plan intended These Rules shall apply to Any area identified can be notified
POLICY, 2009 Parks in Nagpur to serve as a blueprint for all building activity and by the Urban Development
implementing land use and development work in the Department as per procedure laid
infrastructure proposals in the Nagpur Metropolitan Area down in the Maharashtra Regional
metro region for 2012-2032 still for which NMRDA is the Special and Town Planning Act 1966 for
at draft stage Planning Authority the purpose of development as
• Districts of Nagpur, Aurangabad and Sindhudurg to be earmarked as Special tourism districts ‘Special Township’ Project
• MTDC to develop high priority projects under JV/ PPP such as Development of Lake Tourism
MAHARASHTRA Circuit in Nagpur, Wardha and Chandrapur NMRDA will generate These Regulations shall come The entire Township should be
TOURISM • To popularize culture though events like Nagpur Festival and Orange Festival in the city funds for the development into force from date of sanction of an integrated one with all facilities
POLICY, 2016 activities through transfer of Development Plan 2014 and these within the declared boundary of
• Nagpur, Pune and Mumbai being home to best state of the art hospitals in South Asia, to provide
complete package of wellness, yoga and Ayurveda to the medical tourists development rights (TDR), shall replace all existing building the township and all infrastructure
accommodation reservations bye-laws and Development Control shall be provided and maintained
and public private partnership Rules / Regulations applicable for by the developer
(PPP) module Nagpur Region
Maharashtra Industrial Policy 2013-2018, www.maharashtratourism.gov.in, www.mhupa.gov.in Source: NIT Nagpur, DCR Book
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
Conclusion About CREDAI
Urbanisation comes with its unique set of challenges with India’s megacities struggling with an Established in 1999, the Confederation of Real Estate Developers’ Associations of India (CREDAI)
overburdened infrastructure as lopsided inward migration creates additional pressure on these brings together more than 9000 Real Estate Developers from 151 city chapters across 23 states of
cities’ support services. The time is ripe to look at new urban centres which can help India reap India under a single umbrella. As the apex body for private sector developers, CREDAI has worked
the advantages of its demographic dividend by organically spreading the rapidly increasing urban hard to make the industry more organized and progressive by networking closely with government
population. representatives, policy makers, investors, finance companies, consumers, real estate professionals
and developers. CREDAI’s code of conduct is adopted proactively by all its members and promotes
There are already major urban centres which have the ability to be the latest additions to the
self governance and ethical practices. CREDAI also updates its members about the latest industry
existing megacities’ list, if substantive investments are made towards improving the living
data, technology advancements, industry benchmarks and international situation from time to time.
conditions of their citizens, utilising existing strengths to drive economic growth and
The major objectives of CREDAI are as -
creating superior infrastructure to drive the broader theme of achieving a holistic urban
transformation. Those already a part of the Smart Cities programme are likely to progress • To perpetuate an ethical code of conduct, which is self - imposed & mandatory for all the member
faster to become cities that will enable decongestion of neighbouring megacities, developers of CREDAI
provide amenities in sync with population growth and create suitable infrastructure • To maintain integrity & transparency in the profession of Real Estate Development.
and support services. All of this will be necessary to attract private investments and • To represent the developers across India by communicating & representing with the government
foster an environment to bring in private organisations and attract talent to achieve authorities for the formulation of proactive policies for this sector.
the goal of inclusive economic growth. • To encourage & support the developers to increase their efficiency in the development/construction
With investments in warehousing/logistics and manufacturing sectors likely activities by introducing the latest technologies.
to be first movers in these upcoming cities, creation of affordable housing • To disseminate the data, statistics & other related information in this Decor.
stock will be critical for low-income groups and migrating residents. Real • To promote the interest of construction workers & to educate them on the best practices.
estate players in these future-ready megacities may be well-advised • To encourage research in the profession of construction & real estate development
to look at such opportunities for business growth. With the spate of
• To facilitate easy housing finance availability to the property purchases and construction finances to
regulatory reforms, the real estate asset class in the emerging cities
the developers by working in close coordination with the leading house finance institutions & banks.
of tomorrow also needs to gear up to be in sync with the changed
business landscape and innovate through fiscal prudence and
corporate governance. .
The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur The Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur
About JLL
JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a leading professional services firm that specializes in real estate and investment management. A Fortune 500
companyh, JLL helps real estate owners, occupiers and investors achieve their business ambitions. In 2016, JLL had revenue of
$6.8 billion and fee revenue of $5.8 billion and, on behalf of clients, managed 4.4 billion square feet, or 409 million square meters,
and completed sales acquisitions and finance transactions of approximately $136 billion. At the end of the first quarter of 2017, JLL
had nearly 300 corporate offices, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of more than 78,000. As of March 31, 2017,
LaSalle Investment Management had $58.0 billion of real estate under asset management. JLL is the brand name, and a registered
trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For further information, visit www.jll.com
JLL has over 50 years of experience in Asia Pacific, with 36,800 employees operating in 95 offices in 16 countries across the region.
The firm won the ‘World’s Best’ and ‘Best in Asia Pacific’ International Property Consultancy at the International Property Awards in
2016 and was named number one real estate investment advisory firm in Asia Pacific for the sixth consecutive year by Real Capital
Analytics and ranked among Fortune Magazine’s World’s Most Admired Companies list third year in a row. www.ap.jll.com
Authors
Rohan Sharma Alok Jha
Associate Director, Research & REIS Assistant Vice President, Research & REIS
rohan.sharma@ap.jll.com alok.jha@ap.jll.com
+91 99104 84222 +91 98604 36695
Acknowledgements:
Vasanth Raghunathan, Sushma Vemuri and Kartheek Babu of JLL Research for their contribution to the report
Credits:
Anand Singhania Anil Nair Siddharth Saraf Shajai Jacob
Chairman President Vice President Director & Head
NIS 2017 CREDAI NAGPUR METRO CREDAI NAGPUR METRO Marketing, JLL India
and coordinator of the CREDAI
JLL research report
jll.co.in
Jones Lang LaSalle Property Consultant (India) Pvt Limited © 2017. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no
representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
STR. REPUBLICATION OR OTHER RE-USE OF THIS DATA WITHOUT THE EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION OF STR IS STRICTLYThe PROHIBITED.
Dawn of India’s Future Cities - Focus Nagpur