IMO 2020 transition timeline

Price outlook Refineries, ports and suppliers Shipowners

Jul
HSFO crack spread
remains at multi-
year high

1pc fuel oil

reaches a
premium to Brent Shipowners with
access to VLSFO
Crude trade for Fuel oil inventories are at historical lows blends continue to
August/September run tests
delivery reflects a
rising premium for
heavy sweet crude
grades
Aug

HSFO supply
remains tight Full-scale HSFO
maintaining tank and barge
values cleaning begins Refiners increase
share of medium/
Demand for heavy sweet
1pc fuel oil as a crudes and
blendstock keeps begin adjusting
crack spread firm operations for full-
scale production of
compliant fuels
Sep
Refiners test supply
chains and look for
bottlenecks Shipowners begin
gradually cleaning
out bunker tanks

Oct
Shipping fleet
begins to transition
to low base number
lubricants, which
perform better with
low-sulphur bunker
fuels

Nov Falling demand for

HSFO will result in
a widening VLSFO- Last chance for
HSFO differential shipowners to finish
bunkering HSFO in
tanks

Dec

Ports and suppliers will have finalised the

volume of tank capacity for high and low-
sulphur bunker fuels

Jan
0.5pc sulphur bunker fuel cap comes into effect

VLSFO vs HSFO
differential at There could be
widest point widespread use
All vessels without
Feb VLSFO vs MGO
of FONARs if
scrubbers now burn
suppliers are slow
differential also set MGO or VLSFO
to make compliant
to widen fuels available in
MGO expected to
sufficient
Potential for blends be preferred in the
volumes
to command short term
different prices
Mar creating a tiered Uncertainty around
VLSFO blends
market depending
on the number of will limit demand
blend categories initially

Apr
Wide price spread
may lead to an
VLSFO vs HSFO increase in scrubber
differential begins orders
to narrow from the
May 1Q high as HSFO
price rises Refiners and
blenders continue
to tweak recipes
HSFO demand will
creep up, as vessels
with scrubbers
continue to be
Jun delivered

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from Argus Consulting Services at:
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